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SPX500H2026 trade ideas

MES1! WEEK 36 AUG 24TH Looking for MON, TUE, WED to create high of the week at the AUG 29th 6A.M Bearish OB. The Head towards the 3H Equal Lows. IF price break above the OB then you will need to sit back and reassess. Possibly look for higher prices. CALANDER EVENT TUES -10AM - PMI (HIGH) WED -7AM - 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE (MED) -9AM - FED SPEACH (MED) -10AM - JOLT's JOB OPENING (HIGH) THUR -10AM - PMI (HIGH) -12PM - OIL/GAS (MED) FRIDAY -8:30AM - NFP / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STOCK Look to place a Put at the time price trades to the 3H OB.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by LUNAR_TRADER_
ES-Weekly Trading Plan - September 1st-5thSaturday August 30th - 10:41am EST We have a short week with futures open for half day on Monday due to USA Labor Day Holiday. I expect light volume on Monday with price not telling us much until we see institutions at their desks on Tuesday. I said last week the following - (You can also see this on the related publication section) "When you look at the 2hr, 4hr, 8hr chart and zoom out, you can see that the trend is up and that we will probably need to digest Friday's rally and most likely chop around ideally above 6468, 6452 levels with 6429 being the lowest level we would want to test. Then we can retest the 6508 level and continue higher this week with 6522, 6547 my main targets with 6596 if bulls really want it. IF, we lose 6369, my lean is that we will continue lower and a new market trend could be starting to unfold with 6245 the big area for us to hold to stay bullish in the bigger picture." Recap of last week - 6430 was the low for the week (never get close to 6369) that got bought up on Sunday evening and we rallied up to the 6522 targets by Thursday. My daily trade plan kept us moving higher all week. I did not post Thursday night/Friday as I was off my desk. We are still in a bullish uptrend and until 6369 is lost, we must focus on trend. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What is the plan for this week? Since Monday is a short session and will be low volume, I will not be trading and will enjoy time with my family. Ideally, I am looking for a pullback down to the 6431 or tag the white trend line and recover the next level above. Due to low volume on Monday, I do not expect us to get much higher than 6496 in the Monday session, with some headline taking us down Tuesday to 6431 or the white trend line (I will have better idea after the close on Monday) and will have more details in my daily trade plan for Tuesday.) I do believe we can still rally up to 6547, 6563+ this week, but IF, we lose the 6369 level, that would be a big blow to bulls, and it would need to be sharp reclaim back inside the white trendline to keep momentum. Overall, we should continue up the levels and get to new highs by end of the week. IF, we lose 6369, I will wait for failed breakdowns below at the levels in Yellow. Remember that when ES wants to sell off, it's better to get out the way and let it build a new base. We had buyers step in on Friday at 6455, so any flush and reclaim of that level Monday would be a good setup. Tuesday Daily Trade Plan will come out after the close on Monday or before the 6pm EST evening session open.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
The end - 2026 Financial panicSince 2300, I’ve marked a zone and made a personal commitment: no matter what happens in the market, when this zone is approached, I will begin reducing my exposure and carefully exit all financial markets—with extreme caution and tight stop losses. Yesterday, I received an alert I never expected to see. It signaled the approach of the zone I identified back in 2021 as the escape point—where major crashes are likely imminent and the urge to invest must be resisted. This zone aligns with the 0.786 trend-based Fibonacci level from the 2009 bottom to the 2020 peak, as well as the April 2020 bottom. It also coincides with the 2.618 and 3.618 Fibonacci extensions from the 2007–2010 cycle, and the 3.618 trend Fibonacci from the 2002–2009 cycle. But that’s not all. According to Gann’s Square of 9, if you examine closely, you’ll notice that whenever the trend reaches one of its primary or secondary angles since the 2009 bottom, it consistently triggers a significant drop. The end cycle at the 360° angle corresponds to 7926—perfectly aligning with all the previously mentioned Fibonacci zones. And for those skeptical of technical analysis, consider this: the upcoming year, 2026, is a pivotal year in the Samuel Benner chart developed in 1875 to identify periods of financial disorder. Benner’s chart indicated when to buy, when to sell, and when to expect chaos. Remarkably, it has accurately forecasted major financial crashes over the past 150 years—including the Great Depression, the Dot-Com bust, and the 2020 COVID crash. According to this chart, selling during the crash year and re-entering post-crash has historically led to profitable outcomes with a +-2 Years at a 87.5% accuracy. When you combine all these signals, it feels reckless not to take them seriously—especially since this marks the end of a cycle measured from 2009. That’s how significant it is. To those who dismiss technical analysis, this may sound like smoke and mirrors. But for those who’ve seen its power firsthand, the sheer number of confluences here is too substantial to ignore. If I know such big crash may happen - I would be happy to wait 1-2 years on cash and take opportunity of big red markets to buy. Curious to hear your thoughts on this.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by mtrade8888
Nq & Es Premarket Comment 29-08-2025Good morning everyone, I continue to believe that the market maintains a bullish trend, even though we have already reached our previous targets. However, since today is Friday, a day often characterized by unusual reactions, caution is required. At the market open (09:30 NY time), I will be looking for long opportunities on Nasdaq (NQ), which is currently showing stronger bullish momentum compared to ES and YM. Price has already made a significant retracement and entered a discount zone, so my main focus will be to see whether the support level holds after the open before committing to any long positions. Wishing everyone a productive and successful session. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FTAKAS
1
Day 19 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Lessons From a Red DayWelcome to Day 19 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Not every day is green — today I finished -630. I’ve realized something important: my trading performance may be tied directly to my routine and supplements. Since I injured my back, I’ve been on painkillers and haven’t taken my usual supplement stack. Today I felt distracted, unfocused, and off my game — even though the setups were there, I just couldn’t execute with clarity. It’s a reminder that trading isn’t just charts and signals — your health, focus, and routines matter just as much as strategy. 📰 News Highlights U.S. Q2 GDP RISES +3.3%, EST. +3.0%; PREV. -0.5% 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6485 = Remain Bullish Below 6460 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES Analyses, Key Zones, Setups, Bias (08/29)Fundamentals for Fri, Aug 29 (ET) • 08:30 — Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE) for July. Official BEA schedule lists this release for Aug 29, 8:30am.  • 08:30 — Advance Economic Indicators (Advance Goods Trade Balance, Retail & Wholesale Inventories) — scheduled Aug 29.  • 09:45 — Chicago PMI (Aug). Usual release time 9:45am; calendars list Aug 29.   • 10:00 — U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Aug). Institute notes next data Fri Aug 29 at 10am.  • Context — Next FOMC: Sep 16–17. Recent Fed commentary leans toward a potential cut dependent on incoming data (e.g., Waller remarks today).   Implication: 8:30 data can set the day’s bias; 9:45–10:00 can create a second impulse. Use our macro blackout (±10m) rule around these times. Structure & Bias (multi-TF snapshot) • HTF (D/4H/1H): constructive uptrend with HH/HL; price is consolidating just under overhead supply. • LTF (30m/15m/5m): Asia range formed near the highs; New-York PM printed a marginal higher high and stalled. • Working bias: Neutral-to-bullish above the pivot cluster; flips bearish only on a 15m close back through the pivot (see Zones). Key Zones (why they matter) Numbers are rounded to the nearest quarter-point when appropriate. Overhead supply / breakout gate 1. 6516.75–6523 = AS.H → NYPM.H band (resting liquidity / prior sweep zone). Acceptance above unlocks extensions. Acceptance / flip cluster (the hinge) 2) 6512.5–6516.75 = Asia range. 3) 6506.75–6508.5 (with PDH ~6507.50) = prior session highs & intraday BOS retest (hard pivot). → Hold above = constructive; lose it on a 15m bearish close = momentum shift down. Supports below (ladder) 4) ~6497 = intraday LL / demand edge. 5) ~6492 = micro shelf / HVN pivot. 6) 6480–6484 = prior NY AM low / prior swing shelf (first deeper magnet). 7) 6468–6472 = prior day range floor cluster (PDL/PMH vicinity) — next hard liquidity. Upside magnets • ~6534–6536 = 1h measured move/extension cluster. • ~6553–6556 = 30m 1.272 ext / HVN edge. • ~6579–6582 = 1.618 ext / exhaustion pocket. (All targets respect our “Hard Liquidity first” rule; then extensions.) A++ Setups (score ≥9 only) A) Breakout-Acceptance Long (primary) • Trigger: 30m close above 6516.75, then 15m MOS holds above the box; wait for a 5m confirmation (micro BOS or clean retest that doesn’t reclaim the box). • Entry zone: 6518–6520 on the retest/impulse continuation. • Initial SL: 6–8 pts (tightest of: under the 15m trigger bar or below 6512). • TPs: • TP1: +15 pts → ~6534–6536 (first hard magnet/extension). • TP2: ~6553–6556 (next HTF zone). • TP3 (runner): trail via 15m/30m closes toward ~6579–6582. • Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move SL→BE only after structure break or 15m/30m close through TP1, then trail by 15m/30m swings. • Disqualifiers: 15m closes back inside ≤6516 after trigger; macro-print within blackout; clear Liquidity-Wall ≤5 pts above entry that blocks TP1 ≥15 pts. B) Rejection → Breakdown Short (secondary) • Trigger path 1 (fade failure): Wick into 6516.75–6523 and a 15m bearish close back inside the box plus 5m confirmation (CHoCH / OB tap). • Trigger path 2 (momentum break): 15m close below 6506–6508 (PDH/NYAM.H cluster) → 5m retest failure of 6508–6510. • Entry zone: 6514–6518 (fade) or 6508–6511 (retest short). • Initial SL: 6–8 pts (above 6521 on fades; above 6516 on retests). • TPs: • TP1: ~6492–6495 (≥15 pts and a hard pivot). • TP2: ~6480–6484 (NY AM shelf). • TP3: ~6468–6472 (prior range floor); trail by 15m/30m. • Mandatory (bearish) rule: needs both 15m bearish confirmation and 5m alignment before entry (per protocol). • Disqualifiers: 30m re-acceptance above 6512.5–6516.75 after entry; macro blackout. Execution Rules (strict) • Time windows: 9:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET only. • Confirmations: 30m trigger → 15m MOS → 5m close; bearish trades require 15m bearish close. • Risk: SL = min(under 15m trigger bar, 6–8 pts). Daily hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R. • Targets: TP1 ≥ +15 pts at a Hard Liquidity level; front-run 1–2 pts. • No trades inside macro blackout windows or if Liquidity-Wall blocks TP1.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES - August 28th - Daily Trade PlanAugust 28th - 5:50am EST Let's review yesterday's trade plan. I try to keep things as simple as possible. If you have been following me, you know that I like to frame my plan by IF statements. I posted the following yesterday: "IF, price can reclaim and clear 6489, we should be able to test 6496, above there we should target6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it! IF, price loses 6478, a quick flush and reclaim will take us longer. Ideally, price does not go any lower than 6464 to keep the bull case moving higher." What happened? We lost 6478, flushed to 6472, reclaimed and grinded higher into end of day. After the bell we got a massive flush and recovery of guess what? 6472 which was the daily low. I always like to highlight the current session levels in red with other key levels in Yellow. You can pull up a 30 min chart and see that we have 3 key levels that need to hold today. Those levels are - 6472, 6485, 6496. Any flush and reclaim of these levels, should take us higher and continue up our target levels for the week of 6522, 6547. Below 6460 and we will need to test 6453, 6430 being the weekly low in purple. Today is pretty simple, flush and recover one of the 3 levels I mentioned above, and we keep going higher. I will say that 6472 has been tested 3X and I am not sure it will hold next time. Be careful if we are selling hard into this area. Ideally, we flush down to 6490-93, reclaim 6496 and head higher! I am off my desk travelling this afternoon and will try to provide an update when I can.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
risky but logical =SELLers dream presents a return 2 reisistance1->3 : number 3 closes below number 1 showing some seller weakness and creating number 2 as a solid major high 3->4 : a return to solid major high creates a strong reaction in the point 4 what do I think will happen ? * a return to number 4 represents a potential turnaround point and perhaps a return to number 3 or even lower * bearish divergence on the rsi,mfi and accum/dist help support this * we have a return to the median line at number 4 using andrews pitchfork
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by jacesabr_real
ES (S&P 500 Futures) — Outlook for Thursday, Aug 28Macro Drivers • Earnings Reports: Watch Best Buy, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Marvell, Affirm → consumer + tech sentiment drivers. Economic Data: • Q2 GDP (2nd estimate): Consensus ~3.1% YoY. Stronger print = bullish, weaker = bearish. • Weekly Jobless Claims: Key labor health indicator → surprises can shift Fed rate expectations. • Pending Home Sales (July): Forecast +0.5%. Housing often ties into rate expectations. Sentiment Risks: • NVDA earnings digested, but positioning still fragile. • Treasury yields remain high → liquidity pressure. • Political / Fed uncertainty adds headline risk. ⸻ Technical Key Levels (HTF Zone Mapping) • ATH: 6508.75 • Major Liquidity Wall: 6500 (multi-timeframe rejection zone) • Support Shelf: 6480–6483 (equilibrium & PMH) • Deeper Support: 6459 → 6450–6452 (1H/4H shelves) • Discovery Mode Fib Projections (above ATH): • 1.272 = 6554 • 1.618 = 6580 • 2.0 = 6608 ⸻ Setups for Tomorrow 1. Bullish Breakout — Discovery Mode Long • Trigger: 30m close ≥6500 + 15m MOS extension. • Entry Zone: 6500–6502. • Stop: Below 6492–6493 (tighter of bar low or 6–8 pts). • TP1: ATH 6508.75 (front-run 6507.75). • TP2: Fib 1.272 ~6554. • TP3: Fib 1.618 / 2.0 → 6580 / 6608 (runner, trail by 15m/30m structure). ⸻ 2. Bearish Breakdown — Short Setup • Trigger: 30m close ≤6483. • MOS Confirmation: 15m close <6472.75. • Entry Zone: 6479–6482. • Stop: Above 6488–6490 (or 6–8 pts). • TP1: 6459. • TP2: 6450–6452. • TP3: 6444 shelf (runner). ⸻ 3. Chop / No-Trade Zone • If ES trades inside 6483–6500 without breakout → no A++ setup. Stay sidelined.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Day 18 — Trading Only S&P Futures | NVDA Miss, Market DropsWelcome to Day 18 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today started with heavy sell signals — we had X10 chip stock sell signals and NVDA X7 sell signal right at the open. I leaned short early but got stopped out around 10:20 as the market squeezed higher. Instead of chasing longs into bullish structure, I waited for a cleaner level. When price tapped 6495 max resistance (gamma wall), I reloaded shorts. That patience paid off, and by the EU close I was sitting on +416.75 for the day. The key lesson here? Even when structure flips bullish, respecting higher-level resistance zones can deliver high-reward trades. 📰 News Highlights NVIDIA STOCK FALLS 3% AFTER DATA-CENTER SALES MISS FORECASTS, LACKLUSTER GUIDANCE 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6445 = Remain Bullish Below 6435 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
MESU5 – Two Longs Today (ZScore & DVD)Instrument: MESU5 (Micro E-mini S&P) Direction: BUY Signals: 11:00 ET — ZScore strategy (statistical mean-reversion): SL 6480, TP 6502 11:15 ET — ESDVD strategy (my Daily Volume Cumulative indicator): SL 6482, TP 6504 What the signals mean ZScore: Looks at how far price deviates from its recent mean in standard-deviation units. I go long when extreme negative deviation begins reverting toward the mean and momentum confirms; targets are near prior balance/VP levels with a defined stop. ESDVD (Daily Volume Cumulative): Session-based cumulative volume that adds volume on up bars and subtracts on down bars. A positive inflection/divergence vs. price near support triggers a long, with risk defined under the session’s pivot. Risk Management: Hard stops pre-set (see SL above) and fixed targets; no averaging down. If you want me to post the chart markup, I’ll add the session and indicator overlays next. Not financial advice. For research/education only. #MES #ES #Futures #DayTrading #MeanReversion #Volume #AlgorithmicTrading #ZScore #CumulativeVolume
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by QuantByBoji
ES - August 27th - Daily Trade Plan7:15am EST - Daily Trade Plan Yesterday I wrote the following: "IF, price can reclaim and clear 6453, we should be able to test 6464, above there we should target 6470, 6482, 6487, 6496, 6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it!" We cleared 6453 on the 3rd attempt from the overnight test of resistance. At 9:30am, price took out all the retail stops down to 6444 and then resumed the rally with us hitting the first 3 targets above. Overnight we are building our next base for the continued push higher with 6478-6489 as the range. We have tested 6489 2X overnight and I could see us doing the same thing as yesterday at the open, flush 6478, take out stops and rally higher. IF, price does not come lower and clears 6489, I will look for a back test opportunity to get long. 6496 is the first big resistance, I expect price to test a few times before going higher, but it doesn't have to. I always like to frame my daily possibilities of price by the following statement: IF, price can reclaim and clear 6489, we should be able to test 6496, above there we should target6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it! IF, price loses 6478, a quick flush and reclaim will take us longer. Ideally, price does not go any lower than 6464 to keep the bull case moving higher. Update will come out at 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
2
ES (08/27): Analyses, Fundamental, SetupsPrice is consolidating under 6489 to 6495 with a firm shelf near 6483. Above 6489 on a 5-minute confirming close, bias favors continuation into 6504, 6518, then 6532. A 5-minute close back below 6483 opens rotation toward 6468, 6458, then 6453. Trade only during 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. Stand down around the listed events. Macro Docket (ET) • 07:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Source notes Wednesday 7:00 AM ET.  • 10:30 – EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release time).  • 13:00 – U.S. Treasury 5-Year Note Auction (Aug 27, 2025; size listed on TreasuryDirect).  • After the close – NVIDIA Q2 FY26 results; conference call 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT).   • Durable Goods (July) is out: headline −2.8% m/m; ex-transport +1.1% (market still digesting).  • Fed calendar: no Board-listed speech flagged for Wed at time of writing; I cannot confirm regional Fed schedules.  Key Levels • Breakout band: 6489–6495 • Line in the sand (shelf): 6483 • Support below: 6468, 6458, 6453, 6444–6448 • Upside magnets: 6504/6506, 6518–6520, 6532–6535 A++ Setup 1: Acceptance Long above 6489 • Trigger: First 5-minute close >= 6489 with follow-through (no immediate fade). • Entry: 6490–6491 (momentum on signal). • Initial SL: 6484 (about 6 pts; below shelf). • Targets: TP1 6505 (+15), TP2 6518 (+28), TP3 6532 (+42). • R:R to TP1 approx 2.5. • Management: Scale 1/2 at TP1; move to break-even only after new structure or a decisive close through TP1; then trail by last 5-minute swing or VWAP band. • Invalidation: 5-minute close back below 6483 or persistent absorption under 6495. A++ Setup 2: Shelf-Break Short below 6483 • Trigger: 5-minute close <= 6483 with clear rejection (no immediate reclaim). • Entry: 6482 (momentum on signal). • Initial SL: 6488 (about 6 pts; back inside range). • Targets: TP1 6467 (−15), TP2 6458 (−24), TP3 6453 (−29). • Short confirmation protocol: Start half size on the 5-minute break when the 15-minute trend was bullish; size to full only if a bearish 15-minute close prints within the next 3 x 5-minute bars. If within 2 x 5-minute bars there is no extension (new low) and price threatens a shelf reclaim, reduce or scratch to BE. • Invalidation: 5-minute reclaim above 6489 or obvious absorption at 6468 forming higher lows. Execution Rules (condensed) • Windows: 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. • Risk: initial stop 6–8 pts; max 2 attempts per idea; day hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R; no scalps. • News clock: no new risk within approx plus/minus 5 minutes of MBA (07:00), EIA (10:30), 5-yr auction (13:00). • Close protocol: if trading late day, adjust sizing based on NYSE MOC imbalance (sub-$500M = tiebreaker only; >= $1B = can trade with confirmation; >= $2B = allow continuation holds into the cross).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Day 17 — Trading Only S&P Futures | A+ Setup, Done by 10AMWelcome to Day 17 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was all about conviction. I spotted a rare A+ setup: X7 ES buy signals, bullish market structure, and a buy right at MOB support. That kind of alignment doesn’t happen often — so I sized up 3x my usual and went long. The trade worked perfectly, and I wrapped up the day by 10AM with +295.37, making this the fastest finish to a session I’ve ever had in this challenge. 📰 News Highlights STOCKS CLOSE HIGHER, VIX DIPS AS NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA EARNINGS LOOM 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6450 = Remain Bullish Below 6435 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5