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Day 14 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Powell Speech CautionWelcome to Day 14 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was a major event day with Powell’s speech on deck, so I played it cautious. With the market under my posted levels and a lot of quick signal flips, I avoided rushing in. Instead, I waited for high-probability setups at major moving average levels and focused only on clean entries. That patience paid off, wrapped up the day with +187.94 while avoiding traps in choppy conditions. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6435 = Flip Bullish Below 6420 = Remain Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
S&P 500 (ES1!) : Time For A Pullback From The Highs?In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P 500 hit ATHs again last week, but the last three trading days were narrow in range. Friday was a bearish close. There is an untested Weekly and Monthly +FVG that price would potentially rebalance before going higher. I believe this will be the draw on liquidity next week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RT_Money
2
$ES Futures: Bearish Breakdown Ahead? Short Setup Inside ## 🔻 ES Futures Bearish Setup: Shorting into Weakness (Aug 21, 2025) 🔻 ### 🏦 Market Outlook * 📉 **Bias:** Bearish sentiment dominates * 🔎 **Tech drag** + weak momentum = downside risk * ⚠️ Key support in focus: 6296–6298 zone --- ### 📊 Trade Idea (SHORT) * 🎯 **Instrument:** ES Futures * 📉 **Direction:** SHORT * 💰 **Entry:** 6369.75 (near market) * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6390.00 * 🎯 **Target:** 6300.00 * 📊 **Size:** 1 contract (\$50/pt) * 💪 **Confidence:** 65% * ⏰ **Timing:** Market Open --- ### ⚠️ Risk Watch * 🌀 Low volume may cause chop * 📉 Bounce risk near 6296–6298 * 🌍 Macro catalysts could shift flows --- 🔥 Hashtags for Reach 🔥 \#ESFutures #SP500 #FuturesTrading #DayTrading #SwingTrading #SPX #MarketOutlook #BearishSetup
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by quantsignals
Jackson Hole FlipSetup: Short pullback to a rising trendline after a multi-week advance. Base case (black path) = choppy basementing → double bottom near trend support → sharp breakout and rapid mean reversion into the mid-6,400s. 🔁📌 Trade idea • Instrument: ES1! (4H) • Plan: Buy on breakout & hold / alternatively scale in on a clean retest of the trendline. 🟩 Key levels: • 🛟 Trend support: 6,380–6,390 (double-bottom area) • 🔓 Breakout trigger: 6,420 (clear close above = tactical entry) • 🎯 Target 1: 6,450–6,460 (first take-profit band) • 🎯 Target 2: 6,500–6,520 (upper channel test) • ❌ Invalidation / stop: ≤ 6,350–6,360 (failure below this risks deeper retrace to ~6,265) 🛑 Rationale / catalysts: • 🗣️ Jackson Hole / macro commentary could provide the directional impulse that favors risk-on flows. • 🔀 Confluence of diagonal trendline + horizontal pivot increases probability of a stall-and-reverse. • ⚡ Momentum: recent selloff has lost structure — favors mean reversion back to channel resistance. Execution snippets: • Long: enter > 6,420 (or scale in at 6,380–6,390 on tight risk) • Stop: < 6,360 (adjust for position size & volatility) • TP1: 6,450–6,460 — TP2: 6,500–6,520 • Risk: keep size small until breakout confirms; flip view if price closes below 6,350. ⚖️ Quick note: If price fails to hold the trendline and breaks 6,350 on momentum, rotate to a defensive stance — the path to ~6,265 becomes the higher-probability scenario. 🔻 Good luck — watch the breakout / retest closely and manage risk. 🙌📊
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NeonLight
ES - August 21st - Daily Trade Plan - 15 min Chart 6:14am EST - I posted my original plan on the 30 min chart and wanted to post on my typical 15 min chart. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I wrote a post on August 19th - Big Picture View of Price - You can see it in the related publication section to the right along with yesterday's trade plan that triggered a great short squeeze. I wrote on August 19th - "6468 was the level that sold off in late July. Could this be the same level that causes another big sell off? I have NO idea, that is not my job. I find levels that institutions step in and buy/sell at. I follow the institutions footprint and enter trades using my edge at predefined levels." - What happened the past 2 days of trading? We lost 100+ pts and institutions stepped in at 6362 for a short squeeze yesterday. What will happen today? I have NO Idea, that is not my job. It is to find levels that institutions are accumulating and follow them when price goes up. When ES flushes like yesterday, you have to get out the way and let price reclaim a level above and enter and ride along. Every trader has their own entry and exit strategy. That is more important than just finding levels, unless you are a scalper! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 21st - Daily Trade Plan - 6am EST Overnight price has been trading in a tight range between 6400 and 6420. IF, we are going to continue higher we need to reclaim 6420 and work up the levels with 6438, 6454 being the top targets above. Ideally, we see price flush 6400, recover and we can enter to move back up the range. IF, price cannot reclaim 6400-03, we will need to find support below at one of the levels in yellow (6384, 6373, 6362), reclaim and work back up to retest the 6400-03 level. My lean is that IF, we cannot break above 6420, we have a high probability of retesting yesterday's 6362 low. IF, we cannot clear 6384 from below, I will be looking for reactions at 6349, 6342, 6333, for another squeeze higher. After yesterday's flush, there will be FOMO from retail traders, and they will think the next short will be another 50+pts. We could easily trap shorts and snap back very fast at any of the levels below. I will post an update at 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES - August 21st - Daily Trade PlanI wrote a post on August 19th - Big Picture View of Price - You can see it in the related publication section to the right along with yesterday's trade plan that triggered a great short squeeze. I wrote on August 19th - "6468 was the level that sold off in late July. Could this be the same level that causes another big sell off? I have NO idea, that is not my job. I find levels that institutions step in and buy/sell at. I follow the institutions footprint and enter trades using my edge at predefined levels." - What happened the past 2 days of trading? We lost 100+ pts and institutions stepped in at 6362 for a short squeeze yesterday. What will happen today? I have NO Idea, that is not my job. It is to find levels that institutions are accumulating and follow them when price goes up. When ES flushes like yesterday, you have to get out the way and let price reclaim a level above and enter and ride along. Every trader has their own entry and exit strategy. That is more important than just finding levels, unless you are a scalper! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 21st - Daily Trade Plan - 6am EST Overnight price has been trading in a tight range between 6400 and 6420. IF, we are going to continue higher we need to reclaim 6420 and work up the levels with 6438, 6454 being the top targets above. Ideally, we see price flush 6400, recover and we can enter to move back up the range. IF, price cannot reclaim 6400-03, we will need to find support below at one of the levels in yellow (6384, 6373, 6362), reclaim and work back up to retest the 6400-03 level. My lean is that IF, we cannot break above 6420, we have a high probability of retesting yesterday's 6362 low. IF, we cannot clear 6384 from below, I will be looking for reactions at 6349, 6342, 6333, for another squeeze higher. After yesterday's flush, there will be FOMO from retail traders, and they will think the next short will be another 50+pts. We could easily trap shorts and snap back very fast at any of the levels below. I will post an update at 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES 08/21 — Key Levels - Short Bias - Setups - Fundamental Setups (A++ first) 1) SHORT — Retest-and-fail of supply (preferred) • Zones: 6,433–36 or 6,445–47 (upper band 6,469–71). • Trigger: 5-minute bearish close back below the shelf (no retest required); size to full only if a 15-minute bearish prints within the next 3×5m bars. • Risk: entry +6–8 pts. • TPs: +15 / +27 / +42 pts from entry (e.g., 6,445 → 6,430 / 6,418 / 6,403). • Continuation guard: within 2×5m price must extend the low or print a lower high while failing to reclaim the shelf; otherwise cut ½ or scratch to BE. 2) SHORT — Breakdown & acceptance • Trigger: 5m close < 6,418 and no immediate reclaim next bar. • Risk: entry +6–8 pts. • TPs: toward 6,406 → 6,392 → 6,382–76. 3) LONG — Only if promoted • Trigger: 5m close & hold ≥ 6,436 (offers pull/flip; next bar holds). • Risk: 6–8 pts (around 6,430). • TPs: 6,451 → 6,459–60 → 6,471–72. • Stand-down: lose 6,436 on a 5m close or see offers reload overhead. Execution windows: 9:45–10:45 ET and 13:50–15:30 ET; avoid new risk 11:30–13:30 without momentum/confirmation. Key levels (from HTF → LTF) • Pivot / line-in-sand: 6,463 (short bias while ≤ this). • Supply / sell zones: 6,433–36, 6,445–47, 6,469–71 (cap), 6,476. • Supports / magnets: 6,419–18, 6,406–03, 6,392–88, 6,382–76, 6,370, 6,357–52. Fundamentals — Thu, Aug 21, 2025 (ET) • 08:30 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (DOL). Weekly claims are published Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET.  • 08:30 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Next release Aug 21, 8:30 a.m. ET.  • 10:00 — Existing Home Sales (July, NAR). NAR schedules the Jul report for Thu, Aug 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET.  • 10:00 — Conference Board LEI (July). Thu, Aug 21, 10:00 a.m. ET.   • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage. Standard release Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next release Aug 21.   • S&P Global Flash US PMI (Aug). Scheduled for Thursday (check S&P calendar; release times shown in UTC on their site).  • Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins (Aug 21–23). 2025 theme: “Labor Markets in Transition.”  How I’ll adapt intraday • A stronger-than-expected Claims/PMI/Philly Fed that lifts yields and the USD into 6,433–36 / 6,445–47 favors setup #1 (fade the pop). • EHS/LEI at 10:00 can whipsaw a breakdown—prefer acceptance before pressing setup #2. • If Jackson Hole headlines skew risk-on and we accept ≥ 6,436, switch to setup #3 toward 6,451/60/71–72.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 13 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$131 Relief BounceWelcome to Day 13 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today I thought we might get a relief rally after the market bounced off 6410. I took the 9:30 long signal but got stopped out as the market broke down further. Instead of forcing trades, I waited for cleaner setups and caught small bounces off 6388 and 6374. When my second attempt at 6374 failed, I stayed patient. By 11:20 we finally got buy signals, plus confirmation with doji and BFC candles. That’s when I went long, rode the bounce, and wrapped up the day with +131.49. Overall, a solid day where patience paid off. 📰 News Highlights S&P 500 FALLS FOR A FOURTH DAY, NASDAQ POSTS BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES AS TECH SHARES EXTEND SLIDE 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 8:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal 9:32 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal 11:00 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal) 12:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 12:16 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 1:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6445 = Flip Bullish Below 6430 = Remain Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES Futures Trade Setup – Long Opportunity 🎯 **ES Futures Trade Setup – Long Opportunity** 📌 **Instrument:** ES 📈 **Direction:** LONG 💰 **Entry Price:** 6415.50 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6353.98 (1 ATR below entry) 🏹 **Take Profit:** 6480.00 (\~64.5 points) 📏 **Position Size:** 3 contracts 💪 **Confidence:** 65% ⏰ **Timing:** Enter at market open ⚠️ **Key Risks:** Mixed short-term signals may cause volatility. Move below 6400 could invalidate trade. ✅ **Rationale:** Long-term bullish trend remains intact; favorable risk-reward despite short-term bearish momentum.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals
Nq & Es Analysis 20-08-2025Good morning everyone, Today we are trading within a discount area, and therefore I will be looking for long opportunities targeting the equilibrium (50% of the range) measured from last week’s highs (ATHs). In addition to that, my main focus is on the imbalances left behind by yesterday’s price action, which remain an important target 🎯. The equal highs I have marked on the chart are also in play — provided that price finds support within the blue zone just below the equal lows. Naturally, I will only look for this opportunity once the market opens after 09:30 AM NY time. Wishing you all a disciplined and successful trading session. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FTAKAS
ES - August 20th - Daily Trade PlanYesterday, we followed the trade plan, and the levels were very well respected. You can find this under August 19th Daily Trade Plan - Also link to the right under related publications. August 20th - Trade Plan - 5:35am EST Overnight session high was 6438.25 and the low was 6408.75. This 30 pt zone has been consolidating overnight and we need price to flush the overnight low and reclaim or we need to clear the 6438.25 level, back test and then enter for a move to 6454 as first resistance level to take profits. IF, we cannot flush and reclaim 6408, the next levels we are looking for price to react at are in yellow below, with a reclaim of the 6408 level being bullish. I like 6391 as best next level to flush and reclaim for a back test of 6408 and potentially move up the levels. IF, price is selling off and we do not reclaim 6391, 6369, 6350, 6333 are other key levels to look for price to flush and reclaim the next immediate level above price at that time. I will post an update at 10am EST based on the NYSE open.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
S 08/20 — Short bias below, Key Levels (watch FOMC minutes)Overview Higher-timeframe trend has shifted lower. After failing at ~6,476, price broke the 6,446 shelf and printed a new low near 6,419 with expanding volume. As long as we remain below 6,463, I keep a short bias and will fade bounces into supply. Key Levels • Line-in-the-sand: 6,463 • Resistance / Sell zones: 6,433–6,436, 6,445–6,447, 6,469–6,471, 6,476 • Supports / downside magnets: 6,419–6,418, 6,406–6,403, 6,392–6,388, 6,382–6,376 Primary Plan — Bearish continuation • Prefer selling failed retests into 6,433–6,436 or 6,445–6,447. • Targets: first back to 6,419–6,418, then 6,406–6,403, and if momentum persists 6,392–6,388 / 6,382–6,376. • Confirmation I want to see: intraday rejection wicks at the zone, momentum rolling over, and sellers stepping back in. Alternative — Breakdown • If price accepts below 6,418, I’ll look for continuation toward 6,403, then 6,392 / 6,376. Invalidation / Neutralization • Reclaiming 6,463 neutralizes the immediate short bias. • Acceptance ≥ 6,471–6,476 opens squeeze risk toward 6,491 / 6,500; I’d stand aside on shorts until structure turns back down. Event Risk (ET) — Wed 08/20 • 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications • 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report • 13:00 U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction • 14:00 FOMC Minutes (Jul meeting) Note: Expect headline-driven volatility around 14:00—I avoid initiating new positions into the release. Posting Notes This idea reflects levels visible on 1D/4H/1H (with 30m/15m for execution). I’ll update intraday if acceptance/rejection flips at the zones.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 12 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Big Loss LessonWelcome to Day 12 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was a tough one. I started off leaning bearish after NVDA flashed a strong sell signal — chips usually lead the market — so I went in heavy shorting 6461. Got stopped out at 6471 for a big hit, and of course right after, the market flushed under 6450. Tried again, but with poor entries, I was quickly down -592 on the day. At that point, I reminded myself of one thing: live to fight another day. Instead of forcing it, I scaled back, waited for cleaner setups, and clawed some of it back to finish at -295. 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 9:42 AM VXAlgo NVDA X7 Sell Signal 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 12:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 1:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double buy) 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6465 = Flip Bullish Below 6455 = Remain Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Nq & Es After Market 19-08-2025As we discussed previously, the market was trading within a premium zone, and indeed price moved lower. On the Nasdaq (NQ), we saw last week’s low being taken out, while on the S&P (ES) price has now entered a discount area within a daily FVG (Fair Value Gap). This may provide potential long opportunities during the New York afternoon session. I deliberately avoided giving a firm directional call previously, even though I suspected price might fall, because trading is not about what we believe—it’s about what the charts show us. Tomorrow, I will return with clearer scenarios and more directional guidance. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FTAKAS
ES - August 19th - Daily Trade PlanLast night I wrote a post "ES-August 19th- Big Picture View of Price" and you can find it in the related publications to the right. I said " You can see that we are in a range of 6452-6508. IF, price loses the support of 6452, we will probably need to test 6390 or below. IF, price can regain control above 6472-76, we should retest 6508 then 6522, 6541." At 6:15pm in the opening session we popped to 6476.75 and rejected. I had mentioned yesterday that 6476 was a massive resistance. As I type this at 2:01am EST price has come back down to the bottom of the range at 6454 with the European open coming up in the next hour. I also stated last night the following " Without a catalyst, news or some other reason, price will most likely just continue to chop around overnight between 6453 - 6485. We need price to flush a lower level like 6450-53 to continue higher. IF, price loses that level and can't clear 6473-76, I believe we could continue lower pretty fast in which I would get out the way and let price build a new support level and reclaim the next level in yellow above that price." Price is still chopping in this range and I anticipate a move out of the range today, one way or another. Today's levels have not changed since yesterday's trade plan. You can see the related publication to the right. We have had a tight range between 6454-6477 overnight and price broke yesterday's low and is currently trying to move higher. Pretty straight forward from here. We need to clear 6465 to retest the overnight high at 6477. IF, price loses 6450-53, We would then be looking for a nice reclaim of 6461 level to move higher IF, price does not reclaim the 6465 level on the back test, we will most likely keep moving lower with 6439, 6426, 6409, 6390 are the next levels below with 6390 the weekly low from last week and should see a good pop back up the levels above. We can't keep moving higher unless we reclaim 6477 level. We could continue to chop around today until a news catalyst breaks the range and moves us one way or another. As I have stated, I like price to flush 2-3 levels, scare the retail trader, then short squeeze higher. The yellow levels should help you navigate price and a reclaim of a level is a good way to get a quick 10+ pts to the next level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
Looking for short on ESI never like to pick tops in markets. However, as we sit just below all-time highs, I see far more downside risk in this market than I do upside potential. Whether it's tariffs, prolonged wars, increasing inflation, or the fading shine of AI valuations, I struggle to see how we can sustain these PE ratios. The last few trading days have been very low volatility, but the interesting thing I'm seeing is significant negative Cumulative Volume Deltas (CVDs) in the last hour of trading recently. This is telling me that we are not pushing these all-time-highs with strength, and that the market is cautious at the moment. I don't think we'll push straight down, but I will look to take and hold on to a short if we get a pop that can't be sustained.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SkyIsCalling
ES Analyses 08/19 Rejection short from 6479–6485 (OB + PDH)Fundamentals (what can move ES) • 08:30 ET – U.S. New Residential Construction (Housing Starts/Permits). First move risk right at the print; can nudge yields and risk appetite. We’ll let the initial spike settle and then act on the HTF levels below.  ⸻ Key levels from your charts Numbers rounded to the quarter where needed. • PDH: 6484.25 • PDL: 6456.00 • ONH: 6475.25 • ONL: 6462.00 • RTH VWAP (today): 6466.50 • PMH / Asia H cluster: 6470.5–6471.75 • 30-min supply / OB: 6479–6485 (overlaps PDH) • Liquidity/defense zone (“strong low”/Mon swing): 6452–6456 Think of 6468–6472 as the intraday “equilibrium” band we’ve been ping-ponging around; acceptance away from this band is what should start the 15+ pt drive. Context: We press into the 30-min supply shelf that capped NYPM today. Trigger: Price trades 6479–6485, stalls (wicks/absorption on Bookmap, cumulative delta fails to make new highs), then reclaims below 6471–6472 (PMH area). Entry style: Stop-market on the reclaim or limit into a micro pullback after the failed pop. Invalidation: Above 6486.50 (clear acceptance above PDH/supply). Targets: 6468–6470 (back to equilibrium), 6462 (ONL), 6456 (PDL / strong-low). From ~6482 to 6467 = 15 pts; stretch to 6456 = 26 pts. Order-flow tells: Offers replenish 6480–6485; iceberg/absorption on up-ticks; delta divergence into the level. Timing 08:30 ET data: stand aside for the first 2–5 minutes; let the impulse show its hand, then look for our triggers. Federal Reserve Bank of New York NY AM window: 09:45–11:30 ET. NY PM window: 13:30–15:30 ET (if morning doesn’t give clean structure).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex