MCX Crudeoil intraday analysis for March 21, 2025According to my technical analysis, MCX Crudeoil is showing a bullish trend during intraday on March 21, 2025. Trade with Stop-Loss.
USCRUDEOILV2025 trade ideas
Crude oil ------- sell around 70.00, targeCrude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, is it a buying opportunity? In fact, looking at the pattern, it has been hovering at this position for a long time, and the short-term is basically a snake. If the position of 70.00 is not broken, it is difficult to form a buying opportunity. The idea of crude oil today is still bearish. Continue to sell on the rebound. The previous contract delivery of crude oil has not changed the trend. I think it still needs to fluctuate.
Operation suggestion:
Crude oil ------- sell around 70.00, target 68.00-66.00
Crude Oil Futures Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 032025Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 67/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
MCX CRUDEOIL SELL SETUPLast Close 6373 , Will face Hurdle around 6410--6453 , Sell On Rise For The target 5825
Exit From this Sell If Get 2 Consecutive Daily Close Above 5480
200 SMA WILL ACT AS STRONG RESISTANCE 6410
Will oil prices collapse to $60?Is there a chance for oil prices to fall to $60?
On Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures continued to rise and settled around $68.3 per barrel. This was the third consecutive day of gains amid growing concerns about supply disruptions caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The Israeli airstrike on Gaza and U.S. President Trump's threat to hold Iran accountable for any Houthi attacks in Yemen have heightened tensions in the region and contributed to the rise in oil prices.
One of the main causes of the recent price rise has been an expected increase in demand from China, the world's largest oil importer. This is due to its economic stimulus plans and positive data on the economy. However, the potential rise in prices could be held back by progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to increased supply in the global market. In addition, U.S. President Trump is expected to talk with Putin today to try to end the ongoing war between the two countries.
Another significant risk factor for oil prices is escalating trade tensions, which is worrying investors about economic growth and energy demand.
Currently, oil is not having a good time, with a 5 percent decline in quotations over the past three months. The main cause of this pressure is OPEC+'s announcement to increase production in April. In addition, markets are preparing for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and possible retaliatory measures by China against the United States.
Concerns about a possible global trade war are affecting the energy market. Fears are that this could hurt economic growth and reduce energy demand, leading to an uncertain situation where supply from the OPEC cartel is increasing while demand remains unstable.
The news is not very positive as oil production continues to increase. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia, known as OPEC+, have decided to increase oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, a move that marks the first increase since 2022. Although this increase aims to phase out previous production cuts, it has raised concerns about a potential abundance of supply in the market.
The 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada went into effect at the same time as the 10 percent increase on Chinese goods. In response, Beijing immediately imposed taxes of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. agricultural products. The current situation leads to a widespread and dangerous trade war, which can negatively affect economic growth and the outlook on oil demand.
When studying oil, it is also essential to consider the trading currency, which is the dollar. In 2025, I predict that the dollar will continue to strengthen while the Fed keeps interest rates high. This may not be favorable for oil prices.
From a technical point of view, the situation on Oil is even worse. The decline is accompanied by above-average volumes, and prices remain consistently below the 200-period moving average.
According to my forecast, oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel in the coming quarters.
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CL1! Crude Oil Short TermTrump Letter Gave Iran Two-Month Deadline for Nuclear Deal
Intraday short term Entry+Prfofit Target
Sell1 Entry
Sell2-5 Incase missing the first entry or to cover
Crude oil---sell near 68.20, target 66.00-65.20Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been hovering at the bottom recently. It is necessary to short it at the high suppression position. It is difficult to make a profit by shorting in the middle and chasing. Today's idea is to continue to short it after the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 68.00-68.50. Crude oil is basically difficult to change the trend in the short term. Yesterday's crude oil contract delivery was not big. The price of the new contract is basically the same as the old one.
Fundamental analysis:
The Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, which is in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025. The Federal Reserve will begin to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction on April 1.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 68.20, target 66.00-65.20
#CRUDEOIL SUPPLY ZONE A supply zone at 5923 indicates a potential area of selling pressure, where price may reverse or stall. Traders can consider shorting on price rejection at this zone, with a stop loss above 5923 (e.g., 5950) and a target at the next support level (e.g., 5750).
Crude Oil Futures: Downtrend Intact or Trend Reversal ?
Support: $64.50 (Recent low and lower Bollinger Band)
Resistance: $67.50 - $68.00 (Near-term resistance, where the price is currently struggling)
If the price fails to hold above $66 and breaks below $64.50, further downside towards $63 may occur.
Watch the Middle Bollinger Band: A close above it often signals further upside. Failing there could point to another leg down or sideways action.
Crude Analysis(INR)I have analyzed Crude using trend, pattern & Gann price. And concluded that it is weak. And it go further down to target.
Crude Oil Market Outlook: Long-Term AnalysisTechnical Analysis: A Broader Perspective
Crude oil has been trading in a multi-year consolidation range, with prices repeatedly testing both the upper and lower boundaries.
Support Levels:
Oil is currently trading around $66-$65, which has acted as a key support zone over the past few years.
Historically, crude has bounced from this area, making it a significant level to watch for potential accumulation.
Resistance Levels:
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit above the current price, with resistance levels around $75 and $85.
These levels need to be reclaimed for a sustained uptrend to develop.
Trend Outlook:
Over the past two years, crude oil has remained range-bound, consolidating between $65 on the lower end and $85-$90 on the upper end.
Given this prolonged pattern, we could be approaching the bottom of this range, setting the stage for another potential cycle higher.
A break below $61-$60 would indicate a deeper correction, possibly pushing oil into a longer-term downtrend.
Market Momentum Indicators:
RSI is near oversold territory, suggesting the market is at a level where a bounce has historically occurred.
PPO remains negative, indicating weak momentum, but a shift towards bullish divergence would reinforce a recovery case.
Market News & Fundamental Drivers
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are shaping crude oil’s outlook:
1. Geopolitical Risks & OPEC+ Policy
Middle East Tensions:
Ongoing U.S. military activity in Yemen has introduced geopolitical uncertainty, which could drive up oil prices.
Historically, geopolitical disruptions have led to sudden price spikes, making this a critical factor to monitor.
OPEC+ Production Adjustments:
Despite announced production cuts, increased exports of refined products by OPEC nations are offsetting crude supply reductions.
This has limited the bullish impact of output cuts and prevented oil from breaking out of its long-term consolidation range.
2. Economic Demand & Global Growth
China’s Economic Stimulus:
China remains the world’s largest oil importer, and recent stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption have supported oil demand.
Retail sales and industrial production in China exceeded expectations, which has provided a short-term tailwind for crude.
U.S. Economic Uncertainty & Tariff Concerns:
The Biden administration’s reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect in April, have raised concerns about global economic growth.
A slowdown in trade and manufacturing activity could put downward pressure on oil demand.
3. Structural Demand Shift: The Rise of EVs
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are impacting long-term oil demand.
China’s EV boom is accelerating faster than expected, reducing future oil consumption.
Major oil producers are beginning to factor in a slower demand outlook, which could keep prices in check over the long term.
Conclusion: A Key Inflection Point for Crude Oil
Crude oil is at a critical support level, sitting at the bottom of a multi-year consolidation range around $65-$66.
If this level holds, we could see a bounce toward the $75-$85 resistance zone in the coming months.
However, a break below $60-$61 would signal a bearish structural shift and open the door for further downside.
Geopolitical risks, OPEC supply dynamics, and global economic conditions remain the key fundamental drivers influencing oil prices.
For now, traders and investors should monitor the $65 support level closely. If we see a breakout above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, it could indicate the start of a new bullish trend within the existing range.
The price has formed a small bull flag consolidation after breakThe price has formed a small bull flag consolidation after breaking above key resistance at $67.00
Trading above all short-term moving averages (orange/red lines)
Showing higher lows and higher highs, suggesting bullish momentum
Key supports are holding with multiple tests
Risk Management for Weekend:
Since we're heading into the weekend, it's crucial to manage risk properly:
Consider taking partial profits at the first target ($68.71)
Trail your stop loss to breakeven after reaching the first target
If already up substantially by late session, consider closing the position to avoid weekend gap risk
Alternative Plan:
If the price rejects at current levels and falls below $67.00:
Abandon the long thesis
Look for potential short entry below $66.80
Target $66.46 support
The most likely scenario based on current price action is a continued move toward the $68.71-$68.73 resistance zone before the weekend. The break above the descending trendline and the recent higher lows pattern suggest the momentum remains to the upside, making a long position the highest probability trade for today.
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of March 17 - 21st.
WTI Crude Oil is in consolidation, but forming a wedge pattern. As the market condenses, we no watch out for a breakout that could go in either direction. But if we take note of the Weekly bearish FVG that formed last week, we simply wait for price to sting into it and use it to move lower. The market is weak, and has been trending down for over two months now. Using the trend and the -FVG, the higher probability is for price to continue lower, as long as the -FVG holds.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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Oil Short1. Checked 30 min chart at 7am
2. saw market made a lower high
3.Looked for most recent gained OB
4.Structure broken on lower level validated the strength of the OB
5. Took trade off the retest of OB
CL, Mar 17, 2025NYMEX:CL1! ran major buy-side liquidity and is now retracing into an FVG. Risky setup since another key liquidity pool sits just above, making a further run likely but still a trade worth considering.
USOIL Market Outlook – Key Levels and Scenarios📌 Market Structure
🔹 Key Support Zone (~64.50 - 65.30 USD)
The price has tested this area multiple times, highlighted by the red dashed line at the bottom.
A pronounced lower wick suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure.
🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~68.20 - 70.00 USD)
The price has reacted to this zone, which appears to be a former support turned resistance.
Caution is needed for potential rejections in this range.
🔹 Liquidity and Wider Supply Zone (~75.00 - 80.00 USD)
This area, marked with red/purple gradients, represents a selling zone with a high concentration of orders.
The price could be drawn to this level if the bullish phase continues.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to break above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could lead to a retest of 64.50 - 65.30 USD.
A breakdown below this level could open the way toward 62.40 - 60.00 USD.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A weekly close above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could trigger a recovery toward 75.00 - 77.00 USD.
A breakout above 80.00 USD would invalidate the long-term bearish structure.
🔎 Conclusion:
The price is currently at a critical stage around 68 USD, with potential for a pullback.
Monitoring the reaction between 65.30 - 68.20 USD will be key in determining the next direction.
Volume and macroeconomic factors (OPEC, oil inventories, Fed policies) will be crucial in confirming the trend.
Crude oil Level'sCrude oil level's for day trading on 5-15 min TF. Price are side ways on daily level so their is no view on any side. if i get multiple confluence like 5 min trendline breakout from levels and any swing break any side(bull/bear) then an only enter in trade.
Bearish Structure & Gap Fill Target📊 Crude Oil Market Analysis – Bearish Structure & Gap Fill Target 🚨
📉 Crude oil is showing a bearish candle structure, indicating potential downside.
🔄 Bearish Outlook:
✅ Key Target: Price could drop to $67.31 to fill the gap.
✅ Bearish Confirmation: As long as price remains below the bearish candle formations, the trend stays bearish.
✅ Reversal Trigger: A breakout above the bearish candle structure would invalidate the bearish setup.
📌 Until a breakout occurs, the trend remains bearish! Watch price action closely.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Weekly chart. First green week after 7 consecutive bear weeks. Astonishing eh. Weak bull bar anyhow and sideways is more likely than anything above 70, for now at least. We have now seen higher highs but the 2024-04 highs were not broken and market failed below 80. So the multi-year contraction is still valid. Same for the downside. Lows were not broken for now and bears would need to get below the 2024-09 low to make new ones.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 70
bull case: Bulls have nothing. Still. They need a daily close above 70 to start having arguments again. For now they just stopped new lows after 7 weeks and any bounce is likely to get sold again. Daily 20ema at 68.4 is their next target and above that they could try for 70. Since we made higher lows and lower highs last week, we are obviously in a triangle, which could break on Monday.
Invalidation is below 64.
bear case: Bears needed to take profits and reduce risk at these lows that were previous support. For now I see the chance of another leg down as very low so I don’t have many arguments for the bears. If we close strongly below 65, it opens up 64, then 62 but we have so many previous lows (support) down here, it’s just not a good short trade.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral again. No shorts for me down here. Want to see either 70 or 63 next week.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Minor adjustments to the trend lines.
MCX Crude oil Weekly LevelsAs shown in the attached chart, now MCX Crude Oil having Support at 5780 & Resistance at 5920 (1 hour chart) and need to close a candle above or below the said level (hourly basis) for any major movement.
Disclaimer:- All the shared views are for educational purposes only. We provide Technical Indicators only for educational purposes. As we are not SEBI registered, there will be no claim rights reserved. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.3-14.3 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 15th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). Timing and structure indicate signs of a double bottom and the start of the second phase.
⚠️ My bearish outlook remains unchanged, as outlined in my summer 2024 crude oil post. The next extreme forecast is March 19, coinciding with retrograde Mercury on March 17.
CRUDE OIl PROBABLY IN WAVE 'C' - SHORTCRUDE OIL is most probably in wave C of a bigger ABC wave, as C waves are impulse waves they should unfold as a 5 wave structure down.
If the wave count is correct then wave C will either equal wave A or you can use the triangle measure rule for targets if your a chart pattern person.
Direction is looking down, however Bears will have to fight thru the support range level 65 - 61 or base of the triangle level first. As wave C is an impulse wave price should move fast downwards once support level is breach.
Incase price starts holding around support level, it will indicate that prices will reverse upward for a more complex corrective wave structure.
Let see how this plays, Good Luck !
Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
U.S. Crude Imports Remain Weak While Exports DeclineShifting Trade Flows and Supply Balances
U.S. crude oil imports declined by 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week, bringing total inbound shipments to 5.8 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, imports have averaged 10.7% lower than the same period last year, reflecting a sustained trend of reduced reliance on foreign crude. This decline aligns with the broader market shift, as the U.S. continues to strengthen its position as a net exporter of petroleum products.
At the same time, crude exports fell by 52,000 bpd, indicating a temporary slowdown in outbound shipments. While the U.S. remains a major supplier to global markets, fluctuating trade volumes suggest ongoing adjustments in global crude flows, influenced by price differentials, refining demand, and geopolitical factors.
Market Impact and Price Trends
The reduction in both imports and exports comes amid a broader buildup in U.S. crude inventories, which increased by 3.6 million barrels last week. Despite this, WTI crude prices ( PYTH:WTI3! ) dipped below $70 per barrel, reinforcing concerns about softening demand. With domestic production stable and refinery runs declining, import volumes may remain subdued in the near term, potentially keeping a lid on crude price recoveries.
Global crude market participants are closely watching how U.S. trade patterns evolve, especially as OPEC+ production policies and refining activity shifts impact supply dynamics. If U.S. refiners ramp up utilization rates in the coming months, crude import demand could see a rebound, affecting both domestic stockpiles and global price balances.
Investment and Trading Considerations
For energy investors, the decline in imports highlights the growing influence of domestic production on U.S. supply stability. Companies focused on pipeline transportation and export infrastructure, such as Enterprise Products Partners ( NYSE:EPD ) and Kinder Morgan ( NYSE:KMI ), may see shifts in demand for their services depending on how trade volumes evolve. Additionally, crude tanker stocks could be impacted if global crude flows continue to adjust to changing U.S. trade balances.
The continued decline in U.S. crude imports signals a structural shift in supply dynamics, with domestic production playing an increasingly dominant role. However, reduced exports may indicate near-term softness in global demand, creating a complex backdrop for crude price movements in the weeks ahead.
