Get started
BTIC on Micro Ether futures against APAC Close (Ether-Dollar Reference Rate APAC - ETHUSD_AP)BTIC on Micro Ether futures against APAC Close (Ether-Dollar Reference Rate APAC - ETHUSD_AP)BTIC on Micro Ether futures against APAC Close (Ether-Dollar Reference Rate APAC - ETHUSD_AP)

BTIC on Micro Ether futures against APAC Close (Ether-Dollar Reference Rate APAC - ETHUSD_AP)

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview
Ideas
Discussions Seasonals

AHB1! trade ideas

ETH - Lesser of the Two Crypto BearsCrypto winter is here. Is this the darkest before dawn? Or the start of a long artic winter ahead? In such nebulous times, directional bets are rife with risks. In contrast, spread trades vastly lowers risk while enabling limited but durable returns. Set against the current macro backdrop and landscape shift in the industry, this case study will argue that Ether exhibits greater price resilience relative to Bitcoin prices. Accordingly, a long position in CME Micro Ether Futures combined with a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides an opportunity to extract yield in a bearish market. Spread entry at 0.0721 with a target at 0.0793 delivers a reward to risk ratio of 1.88 with returns of $1,660. A stop loss of 0.0684 will limit losses from the spread trade to $880. A RESILIENT ETHER? Crypto winter plus recession fears in major economies will keep crypto prices subdued with continuing downside pressure. After a successful massive upgrade last year, the Ethereum blockchain reduced its carbon footprint. Next big enhancement is the Shanghai upgrade expected in March. This upgrade enables withdrawal of staked Ether representing ~13% of the entire supply. Staked Ether withdrawal will be gradual. Even though this might increase selling pressure, it will be less so relative to what Bitcoin faces as described below. GBTC LINKED BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE Last November, Genesis (a major crypto lender) halted withdrawals citing a $1 billion shortfall. Genesis is looking to avoid bankruptcy filing. Its bankruptcy could spell contagion in crypto markets accelerating selling pressure. Genesis’ parent company Digital Currency Group ("DCG") operates the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Grayscale’s flagship product GBTC has suffered sharp sell-off resulting in a staggering 45% discount to NAV presently. Grayscale’s attempt to convert GBTC to a spot BTC ETF allows them to rebalance their holdings to narrow the discount. But their application to transform into an ETF has been denied by the SEC. Grayscale is appealing against the SEC’s decision in court with an outcome anticipated this quarter. If the ruling goes against them, Grayscale plans to offload up to 20% of GBTC shares leading to sales of 128,000 bitcoins which will send its prices tanking. BITCOIN MARKET CYCLES – WILL HISTORY REPEAT? PERHAPS NOT. Crypto winter is not new. Previous winter cycles of extended periods of subdued price action were followed by massive bull rally. Hope springs eternal but this time could be different. Bitcoin as an asset class will face recessionary environment for the first time ever. Unlike in 2018, long term holders (>1Y) have not moved their holdings this time around but hold massive losses on their portfolios down some 50% to 80% which could aggravate bitcoin downside pressures when selling begins. POOR FUNDAMENTALS BUT NEUTRAL TECHNICAL SIGNALS IN BITCOIN Bitcoin’s long-term moving average has served as a strong resistance and continues to be in a downtrend. Falling realised volatility points to a sideways market with limited liquidity and leverage. Declining market volume vindicates that. Orange Fibonacci retracement level which proved to be strong resistance also coincides with the pivot level P could be challenged once the Grayscale-SEC court ruling is out later this quarter. ETHER TECHNICALS POINT TO A SIDEWAYS MARKET DESPITE OUTPERFORMANCE OVER BITCOIN Ether has remained highly correlated with Bitcoin for the past two months. The long-term (100-day) moving average has served as a weak resistance as Ether broke through this level during November. The long-term moving average has become flat over the past two months in sharp contrast to a bearish one for Bitcoin. In the previous period of low HV (October to November), Ether outperformed Bitcoin by a stunning 22%. Stochastic for both Bitcoin and Ether point to oversold levels. OPTIONS MARKET FAVORS ETHER OVER BITCOIN Bitcoin has a put/call ratio of 2.5 on the CME in sharp distinction to Ether’s put/call ratio of only 0.8. On Deribit markets, put call for Ether is two-times lower relative to Bitcoin. Options traders clearly favor Ether over Bitcoin. TRADE SETUP A spread position of long CME Micro Ether Futures and short CME Micro Bitcoin futures. Spread trades require notional values of each leg to be equal. Each contract of CME Micro Ether Futures and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures both expiring in Feb 2023 provides exposure to 0.1 Ether ($120) and 0.1 Bitcoin ($1,665), respectively. Fourteen (14) lots of long positions in CME Micro Ether Futures will provide a notional value of $1,680 to offset one lot of CME Micro Bitcoin Futures which has notional $1,665. Entry: 0.0721 Target: 0.0793 Stop Loss: 0.0684 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.88 Profit at Target: $1,660 Loss at Stop Loss: $880 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME:ETH1!Long
by mintdotfinance
13
Ethereum - lack of volume - volatile FOMC meeting timeEven in case of bullish fakeouts Assuming good news at FOMC announcement we might see a quick move up for ETH due to lack of volume above dear Crypto Nation That's the power of volume - be prepared‼️ Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
CME:ETH1!
by Crypto4Everybody
Ethereum Multi time frames 🔵1 h chart 🔴4 h chart 🟢daily chartEthereum Multi time frames 🔵1 h chart - possible correction should find volume support at $1,202 🔴4 h chart - further support given by EMA50 🟢daily chart - a break of 1,269 would be a huge bullish signal 🚨👀 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
CME:ETH1!
by Crypto4Everybody
Adoption reduces in the because most boarded the hype train and The world has spiralled too far out of control, into the control of a select few. We’ve become so heavily suppressed that ‘cancelling’ is now a normality. It absolutely isn’t. This is the first time in a long time we’re seeing a push back, let’s not stop now. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that the entire crypto market was incredibly overvalued with little reason besides hype inflating prices. Adoption reduces in the because most boarded the hype train and will naturally depart with it. Happens every time, chill.
CME:ETHX2021
by Jess3450
Psychological WarfareI’ve never been one to shy away from the harsher realities of participating in the financial markets. If you follow me on social media, you’re likely no stranger to my beliefs in showing both sides of the digital coin. To successfully play in this field, you first need to have a general awareness of your importance within the market, which is none. We tend to be rather fragile when it comes to the ego being rattled, it’s not easy for most to accept that they are an irrelevant metric in the market they choose to dabble in. It’s even harder when the ego has something to prove and believes it deserves to be crowned a winner of the markets. You never truly conquer the art of trading, anyone carrying such a belief has been humbled quickly by the unpredictable shifts in the behaviour of the financial markets. It’s an endless battle, faced against an opponent with the capability of never allowing you to know its next move. Blindly challenging such an enemy is a foolish approach, especially if you’re repetitively going in for the same method of attack with little success. The opponent knows you better than you know yourself, it already knows the likelihood of where you’ll attack. This opponent has mastered the art of hunting and thrives on the consumption of those who fall for the bait. It learns from its feeding habits, it inherently possesses a very large appetite, and greed drives it to feed on the swarms of smaller prey blindly running into its trap. The financial markets are interconnected with almost every aspect of our current reality. The mainstream media, global economy, and politics are just a handful to mention. All of these carry one key similarity, centralisation. A concentration of power is left in the hands of those who thrive on the dominance they have instilled over mankind. To retain such status is no easy task, you certainly cannot achieve it without pulling a few strings and manipulating your way to the top. I imagine the financial markets as the heart, with the individual sectors making up the ‘system’ to be the arteries that facilitate the stimulation of the heart. For the heart (market) to be stimulated, it requires nutrients (data) to flow through the arteries (the system). The problem here lies in the fact that the system stimulating the markets operates on a pyramid-hierarchy model, where a handful of players pull the strings. The data is frequently polluted, to create irregular behaviour from the market and unpredictable volatility. This heart is man-made, with the creators having full control over how it beats. You couldn’t possibly expect a market dependent on the decisions, actions, and words of a select few to be free of manipulation, could you? It’s fuelled by a monopoly of power. The corruption and manipulation within the very system the markets reflect can be visualised in real-time thanks to candlestick charts. It’s executed in broad daylight for all to see, yet most continue falling for the same tricks, unable to comprehend that they have entered a playground where their suffering benefits the pockets of those pulling the strings. Whilst many different factors and methods go into the manipulation of the financial markets, which we will save for another article, it all stems from the same source, that being greed. The market makers prey on the vulnerability of those who possess the traits of sheep, blindly flocking in herds to their slaughter. Greed is the driving force behind this mentality, it can eradicate all rationale. In an irrational and emotional state, you are at your most vulnerable. When critical thinking is clouded by emotions, you are very easily susceptible to external programming. We saw this example showcased in real life throughout the COVID Pandemic.
CME:ETHX2021
by Jess3450
2
Ethereum Multi time frames 🔵1 h chart 🔴4 h chart 🟢daily chartEthereum Multi time frames 🔵1 h chart - SMA200 and volume resistance $1,202 as strong combination to break🚨👀 🔴4 h chart - further resistance with EMA50 🟢daily chart - strong volume support at $1,086.5 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
CME:ETH1!
by Crypto4Everybody
🔥🔥 Futures on ETH: The roof, the roof, the roof is on fireBitcoin, Ethereum and most other cryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday 08-11-2022 following Binance's announcement of its intention to acquire FTX, heightening concerns about liquidity in the industry. According to TradingView, the Total Market Cap - the global value of the entire crypto sector was down 15% on the past day, reaching $813 billion. Bitcoin lost 12%, Ethereum lost 17.5% and Dogecoin lost 25%. The FTX token crashed 84% and Binance's BNB also reversed a sharp previous 17% gain and turned negative, falling 6%. “To protect users, we have signed a non-binding Letter of Intent, planning to fully acquire FTX.com and help manage the liquidity crisis,” Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted. Zhao added that the deal is pending confirmation of his firm's ability to conduct due diligence on the FTX purchase and the exchange itself. A liquidity crisis plagued the FTX exchange at the beginning of the week amid a sharp decline in FTX Token. A CoinDesk report last week suggested that FTX-owned Alameda Research's balance sheet is heavily dependent on FTT, raising concerns that the two parts of the Bankman-Fried e mpire depend on illiquid cryptocurrencies rather than cash or other liquid assets. The liquidity problems of the crypto sector arose after the crash at the beginning of the year, which erased $340 billion of market capitalization and lowered ETH from $3,900 to $2,200, followed by the collapse of the “stable” Terra UST coin, forming a steady series of crashes in the industry, following behind the increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve against the backdrop of its fight against "indomitable inflation". The technical picture in ETH futures points to potentially increased risks of further erosion and disruption of the crypto market as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle nears its climax and logical conclusion before the end of 2022. The left scale shows market expectations for a Fed rate by the end of Q1'23. That is well above 10-year US Government Treasuries yield.
CME:ETH1!Short
by PandorraResearch
ETH looks very good but don't get cockyDone with #stocks till Nov, unless something crazy happens & need unload more winners, going 2 chill FULLY VESTED in #crypto, moving huge winners into next possible movers Showed most moves "here" ( I just copy paste lol) $ETH slowly selling off BUT GREEN CANDLES = open down, rally up #ETH Volume so so HOWEVER! DON'T get cocky!!! While we've been $ETH bull & #altcoin, we're not out the woods #ETH BUY VOLUME mostly there #ethereum capitulation likely June #short show this too Most signs of bottom in longest ❤️fact we need to break Inverse Head & Shoulder + downtrend @ same time
CME:ETH1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Ethereum Merge complete. What’s changed?The Ethereum network expanded the Bitcoin-conceived idea of a decentralised blockchain and added new functionality to the blockchain. It introduced programmable applications and smart contracts that would automate decisions and transactions. Smart contracts are self-executing pieces of code that create conditions for a certain action to take place. This means that it is the code that decides whether an action can take place or not, not a company or individual. This was a major breakthrough. Instead of having to rely on a centralised institution, or the subjective judgement of a person, the code would execute the transaction after certain code-determined conditions were met. Instead of having to trust a company or individual to conduct a transaction, the Ethereum network created a decentralised peer-to-peer network architecture where trust was decentralised. Ethereum developers say their main goal was to create a settlement layer for the internet of value. What are the main use cases for Ethereum today? Today, many entrepreneurs are using the Ethereum blockchain to create decentralised applications (dApps) which utilise Ethereum’s smart contracts and data storage. Over the past three years, the most notable application areas have been in non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralised finance applications (DeFi), stablecoins and decentralised autonomous organisations (DAOs). Users of the Ethereum network must pay in Ether to use the blockchain. For example, in order to buy an NFT, the buyer must have a crypto wallet and (most often) own some Ether to buy these tokens. In the area of DeFi, many new protocols are being built to create decentralised peer-to-peer networks for lending, borrowing, insurance, credit, asset issuance, asset management, automated portfolio management etc. Many of these protocols have been built on the Ethereum blockchain. What is the Merge? The Merge is part of an upgrade to Ethereum, which has been years in the making and was finally successfully executed on 15 September 2022. The first phase of the upgrade took place in December 2020 when the consensus layer of the blockchain, called the Beacon Chain, went live. This was a new parallel blockchain that ran alongside the Ethereum Mainnet and was tested heavily until it was merged with the Ethereum Mainnet. The Merge has changed the way transactions are verified on the Ethereum blockchain. The transaction validation process has moved from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). In PoW, the process was handled by owners of expensive computer equipment (the miners) who raced to solve complex mathematical problems and, as a reward, received newly minted Ether and part of the user transaction fees. In PoS, the transaction validation process is handled by owners of Ether and validators who are then randomly chosen to validate transactions and secure the network. The more Ether the validator owns, the greater the likelihood of being chosen as a validator. What does the Merge mean for an investor in Ethereum? For an investor, the Merge creates a yielding asset as Ether holders can now earn rewards through staking and participating in the network consensus. Although staking has been available on the Beacon Chain, staked Ether cannot be withdrawn yet. In early September 2022, there were 13.5 million Ether staked on the Beacon Chain by over 422,000 active validators, meaning that nearly 11% of Ether supply was staked. Pre-Merge yields paid to validators to validate the transactions of the network were around 4-5% per annum, but this is expected to increase as future rewards will also include the net transaction fees previously paid to miners. Transaction fees are the payments made by users of the Ethereum blockchain for the right to use the platform. As the number of validators increases, the validator portion of the yield is expected to come down. However, as the usage of Ethereum increases, the net transaction fees are likely to increase. Many industry participants estimate that the combined staking reward and transaction fee will increase the real yield generated by the network to 5-7% per annum. Due to the potentially deflationary nature of Ether, the yield could be even higher. Holders of Ether not willing to stake their coins will not generate any staking rewards. Will the move to PoS create a deflationary asset? In the long term, potentially yes. This is another main benefit of the Merge. As the Ethereum network needs less computational power to secure the network, the number of new Ether issued per year is expected to decline from an annual 4-5% supply growth to a net issuance of 0.5% per annum. Assuming the demand for Ether remains the same, a decline in supply could potentially lead to an appreciation in the price of Ether. Ether does not have a set maximum supply limit. Its supply is collectively agreed with developers and other market participants. With PoW the miners received a reward for approving the transactions and mining the blocks but were also paid user transaction fees (gas fees). In August 2021, the Ethereum network implemented the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP-1559) which proposed that a proportion of gas fees be burned and permanently removed from the token supply. This has resulted in approximately 50% of historical Ether rewards (roughly $8.6 billion) having been burned as of September 2022. Will PoS solve the issues of high transaction fees and network congestion in the Ethereum network? One of the reasons users became attracted to other Layer 1s in 2021 was the high transaction fees (gas fees/user fees) charged by the Ethereum network. In some cases, dependent on the network congestion, buying a cheap NFT might cost up to $100 in gas fees. This is because, at its current decentralised capacity, the Ethereum network can only handle approximately 15-20 transactions per second, which is clearly a problem for some applications and leads to congestion in the network. In comparison, Visa, a major payment processor, can handle up to 1700 transactions per second. This became a challenge in 2021 when the usage of NFTs increased significantly. Gas fees depend on the network demand relative to the network’s capacity. Ethereum’s move to PoS will not yet significantly reduce gas fees. Another upgrade is required for this to happen. In 2023, the network is expected to go through ‘sharding’, which is the act of splitting the network’s data into smaller portions to enhance capacity and improve scalability. According to the creator of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, the upgrade to Ethereum is only 55% complete after the Merge. Four more major upgrades are needed (the surge, the verge, the purge and the splurge) for the network to achieve the very best transmission speeds which would make Ethereum one of the fastest blockchain networks available. Will the PoS make the network more secure? Many Ethereum proponents argue that PoS will make the network more secure as everyone with Ether can participate in the network validation process. One must have 32 Ether to become a validator, but everyone can stake their Ether on the staking pool. However, while the number of validators on the Beacon Chain was diversified (over 422,000 validators) pre-Merge, the largest validator, Lido Finance (a DeFi protocol), controlled over 30% of the transaction validations. On top of that, three exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken and Binance) controlled another 30% of validations. This raises questions about centralisation and censorship and cannot be ignored. We calculate that a potential direct 51% attack on the Beacon Chain would have cost over $11 billion in early September 2022 when there were more than $13.5 million of Ether staked with an Ether price of $1620. Does the Merge make Ethereum more ESG-compliant? On the environmental front, the move to PoS is a major positive. It is expected that the Ethereum network’s energy consumption will reduce by over 99%. This is because the miners’ energy-consuming graphics processing units (GPUs) will be replaced by validators’ servers. The move to PoS will significantly reduce the carbon footprint of the network and make the asset more appealing for ESG-conscious investors. When can I withdraw my Ether from staking? Until now, Ether-stakers have not been able to withdraw their Ether from the Beacon Chain. We expect that the next smaller upgrade on the network, called the ‘Shanghai upgrade’, will enable unlocking of staked Ether and will take place in early 2023. We also expect there will be rules that limit the exits of validators to prevent massive amounts of Ether being withdrawn at any one time and making the network more vulnerable to attacks. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CME:ETH1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
ETH is tad weak BUT has held wll vs other indices3/ Those following know we've been saying that the US #Dollar is done, on life support, BUT it's stronger than all the others in the basket, hence $DXY LOOKS strong $ETH LONE survivor of indices #ETH tad weak here but still impressive #Ethereum held well all things considered Not crazy that Weekly $ETH RSI, weak & struggling here BUT EVERYTHING ELSE IS LOWER, $BTC = exception but #BTC's been super weak, as we called #ETH must hold area or bear ending inverse head & shoulder pattern done #Ethereum is @ do or die #crypto
CME:ETH1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC