FCPO Week 47 2025: Transition to bullish?Price is in consolidation. It has 2 weeks to follow through on the double top but so far it held. This might indicate that it is in transition to possibly going higher and bearish is losing momentum. Two options next week:
1) Price close and stay above 4200 then we might see price going bullish towards 4300 and 4400.
2) Price close and stay below 4070 then price possibly continue lower towards 3900.
Option 1 is most likely and have higher probability.
Happy trading.
Trade ideas
18/11/25 No Breakout from Sideways Tight Trading Range Yet
Monday’s candlestick (Nov 17) was an outside bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 9 trading days, or if the market would break from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time.
The market remains in the tight trading range, testing its upper third.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the tight trading range with follow-through buying.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
They see the current tight trading range as a pullback. They want a breakout below, followed by another strong leg down.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, then resume its decline.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA about flat in the first 15 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days.
Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
However, the bulls have not yet been able to create decent buying pressure.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
If the pullback remains sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down towards 4000 will increase in the days/weeks ahead.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
Today (Tuesday, Nov 18), traders will watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 10 trading days.
Or if the market breaks from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time.
Andrew
19/11/25 BO Above TTR, Test 20-EMA, Bulls Need FT Buying
Tuesday’s candlestick (Nov 18) was a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 10 trading days, or if the market breaks from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time.
The market formed a breakout above the tight trading range.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. They got what they wanted in Tuesday night's session.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars to show they are clearly in control.
If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low, followed by a second leg sideways to up.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment and persistent selling pressure.
They see the current move as a pullback. They want it to stall around the 20-day EMA, followed by a second leg sideways to down.
At the least, they want a retest of the November 18 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA about flat in the first 15 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days.
Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel, indicating strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The market has formed a pullback to the 20-day EMA today.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, followed by a retest of the Nov 18 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
Today (Wednesday, Nov 19), traders will watch if the bulls can get a strong follow-through bull bar, closing above the 20-day EMA.
Or if the candlestick will close below the middle of its range, and with a long tail above?
Andrew
Is CPO Malaysia can Breaout 2022 Resistance?Soon MYX:FCPO1! will test it's long term Resistance (since 2022) at MYR4,500.
The question, can it Breakout now?
Try to look at Monthly Chart and you will see that since 2022, CPO Malaysia has been Up Trending according to SMA60. You can expect the fall from early 2022 up to now is within Technical Correction phase.
And the time is up.
I predict CPO Malaysia will Breakout MYR4,500 soon, help by La Nina potential.
14/11/25 Still Sideways Tight Trading Range
Yesterday’s candlestick (Thursday, Nov 13) was a bull doji closing around the middle of its range.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bears would attempt to create another leg down, or if the market would continue to consolidate sideways.
The market retested the Nov 6 low, but there was no follow-through selling. The market reversed back into the sideways consolidation.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the tight trading range with follow-through buying.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
They see the current tight trading range as a pullback. They want a breakout below, followed by another strong leg down.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, then resume its decline.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
However, he bulls have not yet been able to create decent buying pressure.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If the pullback continues to be sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down will increase in the days ahead.
Today (Friday, Nov 14), traders will watch whether the bears get a strong bear bar, which will create a bear body on the weekly chart. If this is the case, the bearish case remains or increases. Or will the bulls be able to create a strong bull bar (which they have not yet been able to do so), which will create a bull body on the weekly candlestick instead?
Andrew
12/11/25 Still Sideways Small Trading Range So Far
Yesterday’s candlestick (Tuesday, Nov 11) was a bull bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
The market traded higher in the morning but reversed to close off its high.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or around the 20-day EMA area, followed by another leg down.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Nov 12), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways.
Andrew
20/11/25 PB to 20-Day EMA, Retest Low
Wednesday’s candlestick (Nov 19) was a bull bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch if the bulls could get a strong follow-through bull bar, closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the candlestick will close below the middle of its range, and with a long tail above.
The market tested the 20-day EMA, but reversed to close below it.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. They got what they wanted in Tuesday's session.
If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low, followed by a second leg sideways to up.
They want the previous tight trading range to act as support.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars to show they are clearly in control.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment and persistent selling pressure.
They see the recent move (Nov 19) as a pullback. They want it to stall around the 20-day EMA, followed by a second leg sideways to down.
At the least, they want a retest of the November 18 low, even if it only forms a higher low. The move is underway.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA about flat in the first 15 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days.
Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel, indicating strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The market has formed a pullback to the 20-day EMA yesterday.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, followed by a retest of the Nov 18 low, even if it only forms a higher low. This remains true.
Today (Thursday, Nov 20), traders will watch if the bears can get a strong retest of the November low, trading back into the tight trading range.
Or will the market trade slightly lower, but close with a long tail below?
Andrew
17/11/25 Market in Sideways Tight Trading Range
Friday’s candlestick (Nov 14) was a doji closing near its high with a long tail below.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bears get a strong bear bar or if the bulls could create a strong bull bar, which would create a bull body on the weekly candlestick.
The market continued trading sideways in a tight trading range, and the weekly candlestick closed as a small bull doji.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the tight trading range with follow-through buying.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
They see the current tight trading range as a pullback. They want a breakout below, followed by another strong leg down.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, then resume its decline.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days.
Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
However, he bulls have not yet been able to create decent buying pressure.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
If the pullback remains sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down towards 4000 will increase in the days/weeks ahead.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
Today (Monday, Nov 17), traders will watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 9 trading days.
Or if the market breaks from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time.
Andrew
13/11/25 Still No Bounce, Will Bears Get Another Leg Down?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Wednesday, Nov 12) was an inside bear bar closing in its lower half.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways.
The market continues to trade sideways as the bulls have not yet been able to create a decent pullback.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, followed by another leg down.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If the pullback continues to be sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down will increase.
For today (Thursday, Nov 13), traders will watch whether the bears will attempt to create another leg down, or if the market will continue to consolidate sideways.
Andrew
11/11/25 Can Bulls Create a Decent Pullback?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Monday, Nov 10) was a doji bar with prominent tails that closed in its lower half.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
The market continued to trade in a sideways, tight consolidation.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or around the 20-day EMA area, followed by another leg down.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For tomorrow (Tuesday, Nov 11), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways.
Andrew
10/11/25 MPOB Data - Sideways Consolidation After Strong Selloff
Friday’s candlestick (Nov 7) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
The market traded down and closed the week near its low, increasing the odds of the market trading at least a little lower next week.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They also want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may have to form a minor pullback before resuming lower.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For tomorrow (Monday, Nov 10), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling instead.
FCPO CLEAR SIDEWAY ( CONSOLIDATION) TRADING PLANMain Trend: Bearish
Short Term Trend : Sideway
Trading Plan: 10/11/25
• Short –
o (Trend Continuation) If price breakdown below Support Rectangle. TP1=4081 TP2=4067 TP3= 4053 SL=4106
o If price gap up but fail to break above Resistance Rectangle. TP1= 4134 TP2=4120 SL=4161
• Long –
o If price break trendline. TP1=4120 TP2=4148 SL=4092
o If price gap up above Resistance Rectangle. TP1=4187 TP2=4213 SL=4140
Bias: Favours overall downtrend
Confirm breakout with volume + RSI direction.
Bullish Divergence with RSi
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
7/11/25 Still Minor Sideways Consolidation Phase
Yesterday’s candlestick (Thursday, Nov 6) was an outside bull bar closing near its high.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
The market continues sideways for now, in a small sideways overlapping pullback / consolidation phase.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff had the form of a 12-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 6).
Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: ITS is down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 12-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The minor pullback is currently underway, albeit still weak.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
The bears broke below the Nov 3 low last night, but there was no follow-through selling.
For today, (Nov 7), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce ore decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling instead.
Today, the bulls hope to get a strong bull bar so the weekly candlestick closes with a prominent tail below, reducing the recent bearishness. The bears want a strong bear bar so the weekly candlestick closes near its low, leading to more downside next week.
Andrew
6/11/25 Can Bulls Create a PB or More Downside?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Wednesday, Nov 5) was an inside bear bar closing near its low.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
The market traded sideways for the day and closed near its low.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The current move has formed a 12-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 6).
Production: November figures are yet to be released.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: ITS is down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 12-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
The bears broke below the Nov 3 low last night, but there was no follow-through selling.
For today, (Nov 6), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
Andrew
Interesting Set Up for FCPOFrom the 2019 - 2022 bull run, the long drawn complex corrective phase is beginning to trace out a major A_B_C formation to complete its 5 impulse and 3 corrective wave.
We can expect wave (c) of Wave B to pan out a 5 wave structure If the reading is correct .
Given the current movement at the point of writing, wave iv (yellow) retraced 0.618% of wave iii and that wave c is 1.618 of wave a - meeting at almost the same place increases the probability of a wave v to the upside to complete wave B .
FCPO has an approximate 3 year high cycle positioned in 2025 which augment the possibility another up move .
5/11/25 Sideways Consolidation After Strong Selloff
Yesterday’s candlestick (Tuesday, Nov 3) was an inside bull bar.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
The market formed a small range consolidation day.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 3).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The current move has formed a 11-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 3).
Production: November figures are yet to be released.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: ITS figure to be released today.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 11-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, perhaps sellers maybe waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For today, (Nov 5), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
Andrew
4/11/25 Can The Bulls Create a Minor PB to 20-Day EMA?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Monday, Nov 3) was a follow-through bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
The market traded lower, testing the 4100 level.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 3).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The current move has formed a 10-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 3).
Production: October output likely increased; November figures are yet to be announced.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: October exports rose 5.19%, according to ITS.
Overall, the market is breaking out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 10-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers maybe waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For today, (Nov 4), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
Andrew
FCPO Trading Plan - 4th Nov - Morning sessionMain Trend: Bearish
Short Term Trend : Bearish
Trading Plan: For Morning Session
• Short –
o If price unable to break above 4141. TP1=4103 TP2=4063
SL=4153
o If price gap up but fail to break above 4193. TP1=4167 TP2=4141 SL=4195
• Long –
o If price break above 4141. TP1=4167 TP2=4193 SL=4135
o If price gap up above 4193. TP1=4232 TP2=4271 SL=4187
A breakout above 4,141 could trigger a short-term rebound, while rejection would resume the downtrend, Until a breakout occurs, bias remains slightly bearish within the downtrend channel.
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
Strong downtrend, price has broken below several support levels.The price is well below the Kumo (cloud), which is a strong bearish signal.
The Kijun-Sen (Base Line) is at 4,405 and the Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line) is below it, suggesting bearish momentum.
The Chikou Span (Lagging Span) is below the price from 26 periods ago, confirming the bearish trend.
The downtrend line and a minor level around 4,240 (2.414 Fibonacci extension). A significant resistance level is marked near 4,452.
A support level is marked at 4,163.
Significant potential support zones:
4,097 - 4,117 (a cluster of Fibonacci extensions).
4,000 (a major psychological support level, marked as "Support - 4000").
The lowest identified support/resistance is at 3,953.
Bollinger Bands (BB): The price is trading outside or near the lower band, indicating high volatility and potential oversold conditions, although in a strong trend, this can persist.
Pattern: A small Flag pattern (bearish continuation pattern) was indicated around late October, which has now been broken to the downside, reinforcing the bearish move.
The overall technical outlook is strongly bearish ("Status: Weak" according to the Ichimoku summary). The price action suggests a likely continuation towards the next major support level at 4,000 MYR.
3/11/25 - Nov Likely to Trade at Least a Little Lower
Friday’s candlestick (Oct 31) was a bear bar closing near its low.
In our previous report, we noted that the bulls wanted a strong bull bar to form a weekly candlestick with a long tail below, reducing the week’s bearishness. Conversely, the bears wanted a strong bear bar to confirm control and close the week strongly bearish.
The market traded lower, and the weekly candlestick indeed closed as a strong bear bar near its low.
The bulls hope the current move is simply a deep pullback.
They want to see a failed breakout below the September 23 low.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel.
The bears, on the other hand, wanted follow-through selling below the September low — and they got it.
The current move has formed a 9-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Oct 31 low).
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
Production: October output likely increased; November figures are yet to be announced.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though slightly less enthusiastic.
Exports: October exports rose 5.19%, according to ITS.
Overall, the market is breaking out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 9-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
For Monday (Nov 3), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers likely waiting above the bear microchannel.
Andrew
FCPO Week 45 2025: Retrace or consolidation to continue bearish.Bearish overall. However there is a sign of bearish exhaustion.Price making swing lows but the momentum has declined thus signalling that price might retrace before resuming lower. However looking at 15m chart this retracement is not started yet. Still no higher low or higher high yet. Monday session might give a bit more idea. Retracing towards 4300 is possible but next week would probably where price going into consolidation then retracement before continuing lower.
Happy hunting!






















