E mini Nasdaq 100. Weekly Outlook. September 01, 2025CME_MINI:NQ1!
Expecting all out meltdown on Nasdaq. And the other two indexes. August was insane. But September will be extremely volatile
NQX1! trade ideas
#202535 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-miniGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. I see the current range from 22800 - 24069 and the middle of it is 23460ish and we closed right at it. Bears can argue a head & shoulders on the daily chart and bulls still have two decent bull trend lines going for them. I don’t think around 23500 you can have any edge. I’d like for this to not hit 24k again but the odds for that are low. Best to wait.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels for next week: 22700 - 24100
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and the market is overdue for a pullback but that does not mean we will get one. Bulls are still in full control as long as they keep the market above 22800. Having said that, it’s overdone, overbought and we are likely at the peak of the bubble.
Invalidation is below 22780
bear case: Bears need to do more. Anything below 23000 would be a start. That would break both trend lines and opens the possibility for 22000 over the next weeks. For now I don’t think it’s good to sell around the midpoint of this triangle.
Invalidation is above 23800
short term: Neutral around 23500. Same as last week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: 22000 likely to get hit this year gain. 20000 seems a bit much for 3 months left.
NQ: 243rd trading session - recapI gotta lock back in, summer holidays have me sooo locked out I can't describe it
NQ Prediction for week 1-7/09 2025After NQ reaches the reaction area above, we should wait and see if it's start rejecting it to start go lower. Overall bearish, so only bearish trades taken this week until proven wrong (see go higher from rejection)
NQ - August 29, 2025 - Before the openThe trend is your friend in my opinion. Dips keep being bought.
PCE came out inline with expectations this morning. We sold off overnight but I expect this to be bought back. Were waiting for employment data next week to see what happens with the FED.
Good trading!
IFVG NQ LONGbullish bias here going into Asia / Tokyo session, Looking At the 15m and 5m FVG to get into a long position, slight EMA Bias NQ & ES keep ranging above the 15m 200ema, Predicting it respects the $23,843.00 price range and uses that as the draw to buy side liquidity (BSL)
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/29/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23550.25
- PR Low: 23498.00
- NZ Spread: 116.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 8/29)
- Session Open ATR: 285.83
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 278K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ - August 27, 2025 - After the closeMarket isn't loving the NVIDIA earnings. A bit odd considering the earnings weren't bad and they announced share buybacks.
NQ - August 27 - afternoonSince the Powell speech and rally on Friday the 22nd, the easier trade has remained to buy dips.
As we can see in image above we had broke below the longterm trendline and Friday brought us back above it.
And though we drifted below the trendline during the overnight session Monday, we've held above it and its been bought during the NY session everyday since, as seen below.
AFTER THE CLOSE: We have Nvidia earnings which will important for tomorrows trading session.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR: We have GDP tomorrow as well as PCE and Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. I dont thing GDP will be very market moving but PCE will be quite important for inflation data, as that is what the FED uses. If Inflation is lower than expected and with Powell's most recent comments, its fair to assume a cut in September will be fully baked in.
Good trading! Wishing you all green PnL's :)
NASDAQ 100 TYRING TO CARVE OUR HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP? Hey traders so today looking at Nasdaq 100 looking like it's trying to form a top. More importantly a Head & Shoulders Top.
For those new to trading and understanding technical analysis I highly recommend you learn chart formations like Head & Shoulders.
Technical Analysis is a little bit like art what one trader sees not all other traders will see. However if alot of traders see it then it is becoming more significant.
So basically you have a left shoulder formed at top of rally 23,847. Then you have head or highest peak formed at 24,100. Then you have a neckline formed at 22,758. Finally you have the right shoulder which has not been completed yet. If you read about the Head & Shoulders it normally has a 90% probability or being accurate.
So is the market topping out?
No one knows for sure but we do know that historically September and October are the worst months of the year seasonally for the stock market. This definetly shows that the bearish case is stronger.
Scenario Time
Bullish- knowing that seasonally the market could weaken in September and we are right around the corner I would say wait for the sell off and buy back in November.
Bearish- The way you trade the Head & Shoulders pattern is if the right shoulder completes then you wait for the market to break below the neckline under 22,775 and then place your sell order. Then you place a stop above the right shoulder after if forms.
COT- Commitment of Traders report still showing the funds are holding Long Positions and even somewhat crowded on the long side. But last week they closed some of them could this be a bearish sign closing long positions? Most likely yes but lets see what happens in tommorows report.
Good Luck & Always use Risk Management!
(Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
RISK DISCLOSURE
TRADING IN THE FUTURES AND FOREX MARKET INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK. ALWAYS CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS HIGH RISK ASSET CLASSES MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY ASSETS. ALL IDEAS ARE MADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
US30- SetupWatching breakout of key zone 23646.25 – 23607.00. If confirmed, price may push towards targets at 23849.00 and 23824.75.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/28/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23622.75
- PR Low: 23601.25
- NZ Spread: 48.0
No key scheduled economic events
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 8/28)
- Session Open ATR: 284.71
- Volume: 15K
- Open Int: 280K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -1.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
26 August 2025Reasons why you should not trade no news day or trade with low size.
Couple of clean setups at 9:30 but price was very choppy after that.
NQ: 240th trading session - recapBetter session today, I was focused etc. Also got my grip and my plan back on route.
This just needs to get better and better now for the next few months
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/27/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23520.25
- PR Low: 23499.00
- NZ Spread: 47.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Durable Goods Orders
10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 8/27)
- Session Open ATR: 297.44
- Volume: 43K
- Open Int: 281K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Plan (A++) — Tue, Aug 26. Analyses and Setups At-a-glance
• Structure: Daily uptrend but capped below 23,585–23,615 supply; late-day dump then bounce.
• Pivot: ~23,50x shelf (intraday pivot).
• Plan: Acceptance Long above PDH (≥23,59x) OR Rejection Short on break ≤23,50x after a pop/fail.
Macro clock (ET)
• 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Jul).
• 9:00 — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller (Jun).
• 10:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug).
• 11:30 — Dallas Fed Texas Service Sector Survey (publishing begins 9:30 a.m. CT).
• Afternoon — U.S. Treasury 2-Year Note auction (verify time live; typically 1:00 p.m. ET).
• Heads-up — NVDA earnings Wed, Aug 27 after the close.
HTF context
• Daily/4H: Buyers defend 23,44x → 23,41x; sellers active 23,585–23,615.
• 1H/30M: Sideways; 23,50x is the shelf to watch.
Key levels
• Resistance: R1 23,585–23,615 (PDH/supply); R2 23,650–23,680.
• Support: S1 23,485–23,505 (shelf/NYPM.L); S2 23,440–23,455; S3 23,405–23,415 (AS.L); S4 23,295–23,315 (Mon low area).
A) Acceptance Long (A++)
• Trigger: First 5-min close ≥23,590–23,600 with 15-min holding/printing HH.
• Targets: 23,650 → 23,680/23,700.
• Invalidation: Hard — 15-min close ≤23,580; Soft — no extension within 2×5-min bars.
B) Rejection Short (A++)
• Trigger: Rejection from 23,52x–23,56x then first 5-min close ≤23,498–23,505 (shelf break) with 15-min alignment.
• Targets: 23,455 → 23,410 → 23,305.
• Invalidation: Hard — 15-min close back above ~23,505; Soft — no extension within 2×5-min bars.
Execution rules (A++)
• MOS entry on confirming close; no retest required.
• Align 30m/15m/5m; go BE only after structure/through T1.
• Trade windows: 9:45–11:30 & 13:45–15:30 ET.
• Stand down if price chops inside 23,49x–23,56x without a decisive close.
Disqualifiers
• Trend conflict across 30m/15m/5m
• No 5-min confirming close
• Directly into 10:00 data or the afternoon auction
• Chop inside the pivot box
Supply and Demand Zones, Support Resistance Levels $NQwww.tradingview.com
Posting for YT community fam.
Nasdaq NASDAQ's starting to crack. Tech's stretched, breadth is thinning, and rates aren't easing anytime soon. Add in weak macro and extended valuations — this isn’t just a dip, it’s distribution. Watch for lower highs and breakdowns.
NQ: 240th trading session - recapPretty dissapointed lately, price action is bad. Motivation isn't really here etc etc. I'll go study now and revise my plan cuz it can't go on like this forever
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/26/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23607.50
- PR Low: 23545.00
- NZ Spread: 139.75
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | New Home Sales
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 8/26)
- Session Open ATR: 302.73
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 279K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Weekly Outlook | Aug 25–29, 2025Last week, buyers defended 23,067–23,150 and Powell’s speech fueled a massive short-covering rally, sending price right back to our macro pivot at 23,550. That level now defines the battleground.
🔹 Upside Roadmap:
23,550 = Weekly Pivot
Above → 23,700 (old breakout base)
23,850 minor extension
24,063 swing high
24,400+ final weekly upside target
🔹 Downside Roadmap:
23,335 first support
23,249 Thursday close
23,067 must-hold higher low
22,760 deeper downside
📌 Plan:
Hold above 23,550 = long bias into 23,700+.
Reject 23,550 and lose 23,335 = downside rotation.
💡 Discipline is key: trade the reaction at 23,550, not your prediction.
Classic tug-of-war NASDAQBias: Still broadly bullish on the daily—no true downside displacement, and price hasn’t closed below the last impulse up. But… we failed to close above recent 2-month highs and are sitting right at weekly equilibrium.
Where we are: Price is coiling around the 4H BISI low ≈ 23,790.50, which also aligns with ~50% of the weekly range. Nested inside is a 1H BISI with a bullish 1H OB just beneath. Classic tug-of-war spot.
Areas of Interest:
Above: 23,929 → PDH 23,962.75 → 24,000 BRN → 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance).
Below: 23,713.50 (50% of 1H OB) → 23,596 → 23,501 → swing magnet 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high).
Tell: The last “new low” on 1H needed two candles to actually close below and did so weakly. That shows sell-side lacks displacement unless we break structure decisively.
What flips the switch (clear invalidation logic)
Bullish reclaim: 15–60m close back above 23,790–23,804 (ETH close 23,796.5 / RTH close 23,804) and hold on a retest → long side favored.
Bearish break: Clean 1H close below 23,713 (and acceptance under it) → short side favored; you’re below the 1H OB and the nested BISI.
Two actionable trade plans
(Use your 5m/1m execution: wait for displacement through the trigger, then take the FVG or OB retrace inside the HTF level.)
A) Reclaim-and-go LONG (higher-probability if we hold above weekly EQ)
Trigger: 15–60m close above 23,790–23,804, then a controlled retest that holds (wick below, body close back above).
Entry zone: 23,790–23,804 (retest of 4H BISI low / prior close cluster).
Invalidation (stop): Below 23,713 (under the 1H OB mid) or tighter under the swing that forms your 5m/1m FVG entry (your call on risk).
Conservative SL: 23,690–23,705 (below the OB body).
Profit targets:
T1: 23,929 (first buy-side pools / inefficiency fill)
T2: 23,962.75 (PDH)
T3: 24,000 (round-number magnet)
T4 (runner): 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance)
Trade management: Partial at T1, move stop to BE after M5 market structure shift in your favor or after T1 prints. Keep a runner if displacement expands.
B) Breakdown-and-acceptance SHORT
Trigger: Clean 1H close below 23,713 and a retest rejection (can use a 5m FVG inside 23,713–23,730).
Entry zone: 23,713–23,730 (failed reclaim of 1H OB mid / underside of the 1H BISI).
Invalidation (stop): Above 23,790–23,804 (back inside/above the 4H BISI low and prior closes).
Tighter intraday SL can sit above the 5m swing that breaks down.
Profit targets:
T1: 23,596
T2: 23,501
T3 (optional intraday): 23,440–23,460 (prior 1H demand base, if visible on your feed)
T4 (swing only): 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high)
Trade management: Take partial at T1, trail above last M5 LHs. If New York lunch compresses, be quick to pay yourself.
Why these are the right spots
23,790–23,804 is a decision box: 4H BISI low + ETH/RTH prior close cluster + weekly EQ. Acceptance above = trend continuation likely; rejection = continuation of the rotation lower.
23,713.50 is the line in the sand intraday: it’s the 50% of your 1H OB and sits just beneath the 1H BISI. Lose it and you’ve removed the nearby bullish sponsor, opening the path to 23,596/23,501.
The lack of downside displacement on the last “new low” keeps a bullish continuation on the table—until we get that decisive 1H break/acceptance below 23,713.
Execution tips
Time-of-day: favor NY AM session for your displacement signal; Monday often ranges → reduce size until one side wins (as you noted).
Trigger discipline: do not anticipate the reclaim/break. Wait for the 15–60m close, then execute on 5m/1m FVG back into the level.
Risk: if trading the same idea across multiple accounts, stagger entries (one at level, one at 50% of the M5 FVG).
Quick reference (levels)
Bullish above: 23,804 → 23,929 → 23,962.75 → 24,000 → 24,040–24,080
Neutral box: 23,790.5 (4H BISI low / weekly EQ) ± a few ticks
Bearish below: 23,713.5 → 23,596 → 23,501 → 22,684.75
