NQ Range (10-13-25, Week 3)Week 2 of 7 week forecast did have a 4.85% /1,200 point drop, when? During the Reg Session. When did it lift back up or retrace 70% of the drop? The next Overnight Session. Friday the 10th had double the normal volume, broke of of the Churn Zone (top to bottom, move). We are now sitting at ML (mid level) of the CZ. The White Arrow is the range to watch for this week, above is your long stall short set ups and below are short trades (as long as NAZ is under bottom CZ level). We have a O/N Rig Gap Open range to watch (lower chart), look for a retest here or at ML range. Seems that the same games are the battle: O/N Rig lifts, Tweets, BTD/FOMO (long only) impulse addicts, etc. Will update as we go and just understand that Friday's Reg Sessions 1 day drop erased 19 Snail Long days with 1 Tweet. Just be careful with any Long Trade that starts to STALL OUT.
Trade ideas
Giving Back Profits - The Trap of 'Just One More'NOTE : This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I’m posting this to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so you can execute your own trading system with calm, patience and confidence.
The trouble doesn’t start with the win.
It’s what happens after the win that sets the course for the unwind.
Take this scenario as an example.
You finish the morning well in the green.
You are focused, composed in flow
And then the thought creeps in:
“Just one more”
“I’m on fire.”
“Let's make it count”.
That’s when strong sessions turn into regret.
What’s really happening inside you:
Thoughts: “If I’d sized bigger earlier, I’d have more.” “Stopping now is leaving money on the table.”
Feelings: Euphoria, Invincibility. Subtle disbelief that this winning streak could end.
Behaviours: Taking marginal setups, holding too long, over-sizing.
Body cues: Elevated energy, buzzing restlessness, almost addictive “high.”
Trigger: A profitable trade or session - the buzz of winning.
This isn’t opportunity. It’s the discomfort of stopping.
Your brain has just been flooded with dopamine - the chemical of reward and anticipation.
When you stop, that rush fades fast.
The body doesn’t like the drop, so it urges you to keep going.
It’s not greed - it’s biology.
Your system is craving the stimulation that came with the win.
The mind interprets that craving as “one more setup.”
But what it’s really chasing… is the feeling of being alive in the action.
Learning to sit with that energy, without acting on it is emotional mastery.
Mastery isn’t about cutting winners it’s about knowing the difference between pressing your edge and chasing the feeling.
One comes from clarity and alignment with your plan.
The other comes from chemistry and compulsion.
Both feel powerful in the moment but only one keeps you in the game.
Once you can see that impulse for what it is a chemical pull, not true opportunity the next step is learning how to regain control before it takes you off plan.
How to shift it:
Define the finish line: set a daily stop time or target and honour it. End when you said you would. Winning traders know when to walk away.
Reframe the win: Booked profits aren’t ‘missed opportunity’. They’re proof that you’ve followed your process and protected your edge.
Closure ritual: write: “Today I protected my edge.” Train your body and mind to link stopping with success, balance and composure.
👉 The market always offers “just one more.” The pros know: the real edge is keeping what you’ve earned.
Highlighting once again the post on Non Farm for anyone that missed it. The announcement is currently rescheduled for Friday 10th (due to the US Government Shut Down). Link below:
NQ Range (10-06-25, Week 2)Churning in the Churn Zone, back at Mid Level (ML) of range. Watch the 2 yellow dash levels, break to upper/lower churn range is redirect or counter move. Example, White arrow range play stall at 425 should reject to start or lower yellow arrow. Reverse that should NAZ drop to the start or yellow arrow (unless it is the big one). Still favoring the SHORT side and not chasing any upward moves. Go Fed, Tweets, Next Stimulus, Wash ST Capital Management & Margin Services, etc. Just seems like the lift on fumes is good set up for the counter move (if you can play that, example Wash St Hedge Fund). Ya think? No, why not?
NASDAQ 100 (NQ1!): Still Bullish! Wait For Valid Buys!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct. 13 - 17th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ dumped last Friday with the Trump tariffs on China announcement. His latest tweet seems to have lowered the temperature on the tension. The markets have opened with a gap up.
The plan: look for valid buy setups, and stay with the overall trend. Avoid selling this market.
Simple.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NQZ, FIBONNACCI STRATEGY ON HEIKEN-ASHI CANDLES (1 MIN)Once price retraced, I used fib and seen the retest off the levels. I wanted to enter right after the doji candle, but I got in this trade late and was okay with the SL i had. It definitely retested the 4H trendline after the big drop last week. I seen the indecision candlestick and knew it was more favored to a bullish market today. I scaled down to 1 min timeframe and saw my opportunity trade. I profited $520, took only 1 trade, and the trade hit in 7 mins and 12 secs. That's it, that's all!
I'm done trading for the rest of the day. Daily profit is hit. Until tomorrow!
Final sell off ahead of FOMC | Head n ShouldersI believe price will stage one final sell-off before resuming its push toward higher highs. On the 4H chart, a potential Head & Shoulders pattern is forming, suggesting price may fill the hourly gap at 24,856 before or during the FOMC release.
The 15-minute chart offers a more precise entry compared to the 1H and 4H timeframes.
I plan to enter within the 25,149–25,150 price range, provided my bias remains valid heading into the New York open.
Lets get it!⚡
NQ UpdateI guess it doesn't matter that the gap below didn't fill all the way. Remaining gap is really small anyways.
MFI indicators seem to be working again, went overbought before market opened so the algos sold it off. Amazing how resilient this market is, they sold off everything (commodities, crypto, index futures) AGAIN, and everything seemed to have bounced right back up.
On Investing dot com, I'm showing a gap after the one hour break, but it doesn't show here so not sure if it's real. Tomorrow is probably gonna be a whipsaw day anyways, small caps are forming a pennant.
Monster Head and Shoulders 2.0We made it through this choke point recently and were shooting for the moon. Ji Jinping made a real dumb move Friday and the markets panicked. The whole world knows he's holding a 7-2 offsuit - a losing hand in polka. The panic is over. The px is coiling. The trend is unmistakable. The support is rock solid. We are in an historical bull market unleashed by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and fueled by an environment of deregulation, tax cuts and a business-friendly administration. Today Powell all but said the Fed will cut interest rates at their next meeting 10.28-29. How will you play your next move?
Our job description as day traders is to take and manage risk. To that end I sold 10 contracts picked up under the choke point. I bot 3 contracts at 24930 and sold 1 contract at 24929.5. If the px retreats to the support level, I will buy it back. As the px goes up, I will sell those 3 contracts every 19.5 points and buy three more at 20 points.
How will you play your hand?
NQ & ES Premarket Comment Tuesday 14-10-2025Good morning everyone.
Today, we are trading within a Discount Zone, while the daily bias remains bullish.
Possible scenarios:
1. Price could move above the purple line, encounter resistance at that level, and then retrace slightly.
2. Alternatively, price may continue to push higher, targeting yesterday’s high — which I consider the more probable scenario.
In either case, our focus will remain on long opportunities. Once price breaks above the purple line, we will move our stop-loss to break-even and ideally secure a partial take-profit at that level.
As the session opens, we’ll closely monitor the initial price action. Once volatility stabilizes and as long as price remains within our predefined levels, we will look to enter longs with the following targets:
·First target: the purple line
·Second target: yesterday’s high
It’s important to allow market conditions to align with the parameters of your personal trading model.
This practice not only enhances discipline, but also reinforces your professionalism and consistency as a trader.
PF
Nasdaq-100 | Textbook OB Rejection SSL Target Hit.Price swept the internal liquidity (TS 🐢) and tapped into a premium Order Block (OB), showing clear signs of rejection. This confirms a potential shift in market structure with bearish momentum building up. Alhumdulillah Target Hit✅️
🔹 Key Points:
Buy-side liquidity (BSL) taken before OB mitigation
Strong rejection from OB + Breaker Block (BB) zone
Market structure shift confirmed on 15m
Targeting sell-side liquidity (SSL) below recent swing lows
As long as price remains below the OB, bearish continuation is expected. Watch for short setups aligned with internal structure breaks.
Back to ATHs? Inverse Head & Shoulders Imminent!I’m starting to get a strong sense that price won’t fill the new week opening imbalance at 24,336. The Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern I’ve been anticipating all week looks ready to form — and if it does, I believe it’ll propel us right back toward all-time highs.
If price rips through 24,724, this idea becomes invalid, and I’ll reassess the chart for the next trade opportunity.
Lets see how this plays out!
Powell Signals the End of QT — Relief Rally or the Calm Before?First, let’s look at the key points from Powell’s remarks at the 67th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE):
* The future path of monetary policy will depend on the assessment of data and risks.
* The balance sheet remains a vital tool of monetary policy.
* Fed officials will discuss the composition of the balance sheet.
* Balance sheet reduction (QT) could come to an end in the coming months.
* Inflation remains on an upward trajectory.
* The labor market shows signs of notable downside risks.
From this set of statements, my conclusion is that if the Fed and Powell start speaking more decisively about ending QT and halting balance sheet reduction, it would be highly significant.
It would indicate that the Fed is becoming increasingly concerned about the future of the labor market — and likely signals more aggressive and deeper rate cuts ahead.
Halting the balance sheet reduction while simultaneously cutting rates could provide some support to the U.S. economy and ease pressure on equities and financial markets.
However, if QT is paused but unemployment continues to rise, we should expect a sharp downturn in financial and equity markets.
Overall, given Powell’s dovish tone, my trading bias remains bearish, unless a strong technical reversal emerges.
That said, the U.S.–China trade tensions currently carry even greater importance in shaping market direction.
NQ UpdateFutures dropped afterhours when Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, so expect a gap down Monday.
Funny thing is, I wasn't very bullish because of that open gap, I added to my KSS puts this morning before the market got Trumped. Was wondering if that was a mistake for about 5 minutes, lol. Lucky or not, timing is everything. Wish it was announced yesterday morning when I had even more puts. Oh well.
In any case, RSI and MFI both went oversold, I was expecting MFI to go oversold which is why I did not go long on stocks this morning. Can't use 3hr indicators during a tank, the market will whipsaw it's way down just like April. Daily indicators might be of some help if this spring repeats.
I also suspected something fishy going on, retail was weak all week, which is why I was shorting KSS, along with the H&S pattern I posted. HD has been tanking for an entire month, there are always people that have inside info, probably Trumps brokers, lol. I'm sure he's feeding info to his family and friends, it's the biggest inside trader scam EVER.
Could we see another drop before price starts to rise again?Price is currently resting inside a 4hr bearish FVG and I also have the 50% range of that 4hr imbalance in the dark green line. Aware of the completely filled weekly FVG that price is currently above and expecting for price to climb even lower below and leave a immediate rebalance on the monthly timeframe. Below that is the quadrant levels for previous months wick which would be from August price action. Those are levels that I would consider high probable to retrace to continue higher.
Is the Nasdaq a Bubble? A Technical Correction Is PossibleCME_MINI:NQ1!
Here’s a breakdown of the current Nasdaq correction scenarios based on the Nasdaq Futures (NQ1!) chart.
Every time I reached the top of the channel, an adjustment came out.
Based on the monthly chart, it has closed positively for six consecutive months since the tariff reduction, and it is judged to have entered the overbought zone by breaking through the upper Bollinger Band.
While a Santa Rally could still occur in Q4, we expect a short-term correction within one to two weeks.
Your follow and boost would mean a lot. 🚀
I am Korean and I used Google Translate.
LQ sweep 15 min to Open Range GapThis trade was taken on the NASDAQ 100 (NQ1!) on the 15-minute timeframe. The setup was based on Smart Money Concepts, following a clear liquidity sweep and a shift in market structure. Price had been moving bullish in a corrective phase after a previous downtrend. As the market reached the 25,000 area, it took out the buy-side liquidity above the recent highs, trapping long positions. Shortly after that sweep, a bearish break of structure confirmed a potential reversal.
I entered short after price retraced back into the supply zone, which also aligned with a fair value gap and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the last bearish impulse. The entry was confluenced by a trendline break and strong rejection from a premium area, indicating that smart money was likely distributing positions. My stop loss was placed just above the liquidity sweep high, while my take-profit target was set at the next major liquidity pool and discount zone around 24,440–24,480.
The position moved strongly in my favor shortly after the entry. The trade respected structure perfectly and hit the projected target area. The setup delivered a solid risk-to-reward ratio of around 1:5 to 1:6. At the time of the screenshot, I had a realized profit of +$19,869.31 and an unrealized profit of +$25,675.00, meaning part of the position was still running.
Overall, this was a clean and high-probability short setup following SMC principles: liquidity grab, break of structure, retracement into a fair value gap, and a continuation into the next liquidity pool below.
Expecting for news to move price lower into the New Week OpeningMy bias going into Thursday's trading is bearish. I do still believe price has unfinished business inside that New Week Opening Gap. We also have the monthly wick high resting just shy below as well. Currently inside a daily Fair Value Gap and I have the quadrant levels of that Gap as well drawn out with the green line representing the Consequent Encroachment. Will see if price is holding to my bias and will look for short entries.