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TACO on E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures

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267 handle move bullish - NQ Lower 1D Shadow quadrant exactly respected, which is a strong bullish sign according to ICT 1D Breaker MT (midpoint or mean-threshold) exactly respected with the candle bodies, which is also a strong bullish sign according to ICT The event horizon - which is the midpoint of 2 new-day- or new-week-opening-gaps align exactly with the 1D volume imbalance CE (consequent encroachment or midpoint) Strong bullish market-structure and the movement aligns with seasonal tendencies as well
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by mnakatenus
NQ1! | Choppy Price Action Ahead of FOMCThe Nasdaq has been chopping around inside a tight rising structure, and with the Fed meeting tomorrow, this feels like one of those moments where the market is waiting for a catalyst. I’m leaning toward a short-term correction scenario if the macro tone shifts even slightly. Technical Lens: Price has been moving inside a smaller rising channel, but momentum is fading and candles are getting increasingly indecisive. As long as price holds above 24,000, the broader structure remains intact, but the current chop does hint at a market losing steam ahead of an event risk. Scenarios: If 24,000 holds: the market may simply be digesting recent gains before another attempt higher into the upper bound of the wider channel. If momentum rolls over: a corrective move becomes more likely, especially if a macro catalyst gives the market a reason to rebalance expectations. Potential Triggers for a Correction: The Fed pushes back against overly dovish market expectations, even slightly. The dot plot signals fewer or later cuts, prompting a repricing in yields. Powell comments on financial conditions being “too loose,” which has historically caused tech to react quickly. Catalysts: FOMC statement, updated SEP (dot plot), Powell’s press conference. Takeaway: Price is still respecting support for now, but the combination of choppy price action and a sensitive macro backdrop makes a corrective move a realistic scenario if the Fed leans less dovish than markets expect.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Alchemy Markets
NQ1! (Nasdaq 100) has entered the terminal phaseThe Nasdaq 100 has entered the terminal phase of its 20 day institutional dealing range and is currently executing a distribution program within the premium quartile. The failure to sustain price acceptance above the 25,700.00 Volume Imbalance suggests the algorithm is preparing for a mean reversion event to rebalance the monthly ledger. The present price action represents a classic 'Bull Trap' at the upper boundary of the range where retail momentum is being absorbed by institutional limit sell orders ahead of a repricing to equilibrium. ​ Entry: 25,550.00 (Sell Limit) Stop loss: 25,880.00 (330.00 points) Take profit: 24,850.00 (700.00 points) Risk to reward ratio: 2.12R ​ CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ The Opportunity The 20 day IPDA lookback reveals that price is oscillating within a defined premium distribution block between 25,350.00 and 25,850.00. The market has expended significant energy to reach this valuation but has failed to close the daily candles above the key Volume Imbalance at 25,700.00. This rejection signature implies that the 'Santa Rally' narrative has been utilized to engineer exit liquidity for smart money positions accumulated at the lows. The algorithm is an efficiency engine and it cannot justify a new macro expansion leg without first revisiting the internal range equilibrium to capitalize the move. ​ The Entry Initiating a short position in the 25,550.00 to 25,600.00 zone aligns with the institutional logic of selling the upper 25% of the monthly range. This zone offers the highest statistical edge as it places the entry directly against the 'Ceiling' of the current volatility profile while targeting the 'Floor' of the recent expansion. The Volume Imbalance acts as a natural defensive barrier for the stop loss as the algorithm will typically respect this array during a distribution phase. ​ The Invalidation The bearish causal chain is ontologically corrupted if price achieves a daily close above the 25,880.00 range high. Such an event would signify a 'Blue Sky' breakout and a shift in regime from range bound to trending. If the market accepts price above this threshold it implies that the premium valuation has become the new floor and the algorithm is targeting the 26,000.00 psychological level. ​ Key Trajectory Waypoints Target 1: 25,350.00 | Type: 75% Range Quartile | Probability: 70% | ETA: 24 Hours Target 2: 24,850.00 | Type: Range Equilibrium (50%) | Probability: 60% | ETA: 2-3 Days Target 3: 24,400.00 | Type: NWOG / Discount Target | Probability: 40% | ETA: Next Week The Shadow Reality A 35% probability exists for the antithetical reality: The Range Expansion. In this scenario the current consolidation is a 'High Tight Flag' and the algorithm ignores the equilibrium requirement to force a squeeze into the 26,000.00 level immediately. This reality is confirmed if price holds above 25,650.00 for two consecutive 4 hour closes.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by TradeConfirmed
1
MNQ (1H)The chart displays Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (MNQ) on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a completed bullish move followed by a bearish reversal and continuation setup. Price initially formed a strong impulsive bullish leg (green solid line), indicating aggressive buying pressure and a clear upside expansion. This move was followed by distribution and topping behavior, where price failed to make meaningful continuation higher and began to show signs of exhaustion near the highs. After the top was established, price transitioned into a bearish impulse (red dashed line), signaling a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. The breakdown through prior support confirms bearish continuation rather than a simple pullback. The orange horizontal level marks a key support-turned-resistance zone, which acts as the breakout level. Once price broke below this level, it validated short-side control and provided a high-probability continuation entry. The projected move targets the 24,884.75 area, derived from the measured move of the prior impulse leg. The shaded red/green zone illustrates the risk to reward profile, showing limited upside risk relative to downside potential. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by WIZARDTRENDS
Algo's Logic: Why price moves ''crazy'' with red folder news?WHY PRICE MOVES LIKE THIS The market is not a chaotic auction of buyers and sellers seeking fair value; it is a highly engineered delivery system designed to seek and destroy liquidity. The current consolidation you see is not indecision; it is a 'Liquidity Coil'. The algorithm is purposefully compressing price action ahead of the 'Red Folder' events to engineer a 'Straddle Inducement'. By keeping the range tight, the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) encourages retail traders to place tight buy-stops above the range and tight sell-stops below it. This creates two massive pools of liquidity—fuel for the machine. The news event is not the cause of the move; it is the 'Key' that unlocks this volatility. The initial move is almost always a 'Judas Swing'—a fraudulent manipulation designed to trigger one side of these stops (usually the sell-stops below) to harvest the necessary liquidity to fuel the *real* move in the opposite direction. We do not trade the news; we trade the algorithmic reaction to the liquidity harvest. THE THESIS The algorithm is currently in a 'Suspended State' of pre-event accumulation utilizing the impending volatility of the Macro Data Injection to engineer a classic 'Judas Swing' manipulation. The narrative is strictly governed by the 'Seek and Destroy' protocol: The market will utilize the news release to aggressively harvest the internal Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the 25,550.00 shelf to fuel the terminal expansion towards the external Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) at 25,900.00. THE EXECUTION VECTOR Entry: 25,525.00 (Buy Limit / Post-News Reclaim) Stop loss: 25,380.00 (145.00 points) Take profit: 25,950.00 (425.00 points) Risk to reward ratio: 2.93R THE CAUSAL RATIONALE The Pre-News Narrative (The Trap) Current price action (25,650.00) is a 'Volatility Compression' zone. The algorithm is holding price in a narrow range. Do not trade the drift. The drift is the bait. The algorithm is waiting for the 08:30 AM / 10:00 AM timestamp to unlock the high-velocity engine. The 'Red Folders' are simply the authorized time windows for the Market Makers to reprice the asset. The News Event (The Judas Swing) Upon the data release, expect an immediate, violent displacement. The highest probability vector is a 'False Bearish Breakout' (The Judas Goat). The algorithm will likely spike price DOWN into the 25,550.00 - 25,500.00 region. This serves two purposes: 1. Trigger the sell-stops of the overnight longs. 2. Induce breakout sellers to provide the necessary Buy-Side liquidity for the Smart Money to fill their long orders at a discount. The Post-News Expansion (The Real Move) Once the SSL is harvested and the 25,500.00 region (Bullish Order Block / FVG) is mitigated, look for an impulsive reclaim of the 25,600.00 level. This 'Sponsorship' signal confirms that the low is in, and the algorithm will switch to a 'Low Resistance Liquidity Run' targeting the clean highs at 25,900.00. THE INVALIDATION (THE OMEGA POINT) The bullish news model is ontologically corrupted if the news candle displaces below 25,380.00 and *sustains* acceptance there (15-minute close). A simple wick is not invalidation; it is a feature. But a closure below this level implies the macro data has triggered a 'Risk-Off' regime shift, targeting deeper discount arrays at 25,000.00. KEY TRAJECTORY WAYPOINTS Target 1: 25,750.00 | Type: Equilibrium / Initial Rebound | Probability: 90% Target 2: 25,900.00 | Type: External Buy-Side Liquidity | Probability: 75% Target 3: 26,100.00 | Type: Blue Sky Expansion | Probability: 40% THE SHADOW REALITY A 30% probability exists for the 'Bull Trap' scenario. In this reality, the news spikes price UP first into 25,850.00. If the first move is UP, fade it. The algorithm rarely gives the true move first during high-impact news.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by TradeConfirmed
Looking at three of Bobby's marketsNovember 8th we looked at three of Bobby's markets plus Tesla. Bobby's markets are the smaller contracts which are the way you want to trade until you're comfortable with a larger contracts< I didn't state this but if you're inclined to trade more than one contract it may be much more prudent to trade the smaller contracts anyway as long as they have enough volatility. I have a real neat idea and I don't want to talk about it but I'm looking into something that I do not normally do but I'm going to make a decision I'm going to include a strategy for the equity markets..... Tesla would be an example of what I would be looking at and trade if I find certain setups. I haven't traded equity markets for well over 2 decades.... But it is something I might consider and if I do make that decision I will be very clear on the reasons... The tools I use the decisions I make are absolutely representative of what I'm doing. I don't need your money, I don't want your money.... I will show you what I'm doing and what I'm thinking and I will never tell you to take a trade because I don't want your lawsuit. So stay tuned.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ScottBogatin
NQ DEC. WEEK #2NQ remains on a cautiously bullish footing as it consolidates after a recent rebound — price is hovering around the 25,800 area while testing a resistance band between roughly 25,350–25,550. Strength in tech stocks and favorable sentiment — driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon — are underpinning support. On the downside, failure to break decisively above the resistance zone could prompt a pullback toward support levels near 25,000–24,850, especially if macro-data disappoints or yields rise. That said, if bulls regain control and push past 25,550, the next upside target lies near the ATH (26,000–26,300) — making a move toward those highs the baseline bullish scenario. These are scenarios for this week, let's see what we get
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DrScarves_N_Scalpels_Trades