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4GC1! trade ideas

Gold Futures – Bearish Target Hit… But the H4 Gap Still WaitsYesterday’s sessions made their move for the higher bearish target, leaving the H4 & Daily FVG untouched below. This sets up an interesting scenario: will price roll over to fill the gap next, or keep hunting liquidity above? Key levels and volume profile zones are adjusted for today. Premium supply zone reached ✅ H4/Daily FVG still in play 📉 Watching London Killzone for impulsive confirmation Patience is the edge — no clean setup, no trade.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Tokyo Gold Play: 68% Short Bias, But Watch the FlipAlright, here’s where we’re at going into Tokyo. Gold’s stuck right between a rock and a hard place. On the 1-hour, we’ve just bounced off the upper side of a big descending channel and couldn’t even sniff past that 50% fib from the 3,510.9 → 3,386.3 drop. On the 5-minute, it’s even cleaner: double top at 3,420.8, neckline chilling at 3,400.9, and we’re camped right at VWAP under a short-term downtrend line. Everything’s coiling, and whichever side breaks first is probably gonna run the table for the session. My bias? Still leaning bearish 68% downside odds based on the structure, the fibs, and how order flow’s been stacking. The Bigger Picture (1H) - Rejected straight off the channel midline, couldn’t crack 3,448.6 (50% fib). - Lower highs still printing since Aug 8. - Major support sits at 3,386.3 that’s the line in the sand for the next leg down. Intraday Setup (5M) - Clean descending trend line from the highs. - Double top locked at 3,420.8, neckline at 3,400.9. - Price hugging VWAP, which is acting like a lid. Bearish Plan (Main Play – 68%) - Trigger: Lose 3,404.0 (VWAP + fib cluster). Targets: - 3,400.9 (neckline) - 3,392.4 (fib projection) - 3,386.3 (1H support) Why I like it: Multi-TF downtrend, rejection from key levels, and lower-high flow on the 5M. Bullish Backup Plan (32%) - Trigger: Get back over 3,410.9 and crack 3,420.8. - Targets: 3,424.9, 3,448.6 (HTF fib) - Why it’s risky: Would need a trend line break + VWAP reclaim with decent volume. Tokyo Flow If nothing big hits the wires, Tokyo usually just extends NY’s late session move. Right now, sellers still have the ball unless buyers rip us back over 3,410.9 with conviction. Quick Stats - ATR(14) 1H: $17.2 → plenty of range for TP2 in one session if we trend. - VWAP deviation ±0.25% lines up with our fib levels. - Downside edge: 68%, Upside edge: 32% from my multi TF model. Tokyo’s not usually the session that throws the knockout punch, but tonight’s setup has all the right ingredients for a clean move if we get that break. I’m leaning short until proven wrong, and always scalping. Watching 3,404 as the tripwire. If we hold under it, sellers probably drag this into the low 3,390s before the dust settles. But if buyers punch through 3,410 and especially 3,420, I’ll flip the script and ride the squeeze. No bias is worth blowing up a trade levels first, ego second.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd
Gold Update 13AUG2025: Risk of Sideways Consolidation Last Friday, August 8, the price failed to progress above the April top as it closed underneath. Hence, there are two possible scenarios from here: The price could have just completed the first wave up in a larger wave 5, and we may see a retracement. This setup remains valid as long as the price stays above the last wave E of the Triangle at $3,300. The large sideways consolidation (WXY) might take shape, potentially retesting the bottom of wave A at $3,123. In this case, the target could drop lower, with potential support in the pink box area between $3,700 and $4,100. Which one do you think plays out?
COMEX:GC1!
by aibek
Gold Futures: Low ADX Signals Liquidity Play Before TrendGold Futures (MGC) continues to consolidate with ADX below 25 across all timeframes up to the Daily, signaling that the market is not ready to trend just yet. Yesterday’s session was mostly sideways, building liquidity on both sides of the range. With the H4 and Daily FVG overlap still in play, I’m watching for a potential sweep of yesterday’s low into the Daily FVG zone before any sustained attempt higher. However, low ADX conditions mean price is more likely to rotate between liquidity pools than run in a clean, one-sided trend. That opens up the possibility of: Scenario A: Direct sweep of yesterday’s low → fill the Daily FVG → bounce toward midrange. Scenario B: Fake bullish breakout into untested supply (3,410–3,420) before the low sweep. Scenario C: Overshoot of the low into the 3,350 HVN before any meaningful reaction. Plan: Stay patient, focus on killzone impulsive displacement after liquidity is taken, and keep profit targets tighter — aiming for midrange or HVN instead of chasing extended moves.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Who Has Bought the Most GoldSince the inflation hit a high at 9% in 2022, China, Turkey and Poland have been the top 3 buyers of Gold, including in the first two quarters of this year. It’s not just these countries; many other central banks have been stockpiling gold since (iii) July 2022. Then gold prices were at around US$1,800. Are central banks still buying as much gold today? Micro Gold Futures and Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by konhow
Gold Prices Slide as Geopolitical Calm Sparks Market DivergenceIn a surprising turn of events, gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, reflecting shifting investor sentiment driven by easing geopolitical concerns and evolving market dynamics. The precious metal fell approximately 1.65% overnight, with the current trading price around $3,399 as of this writing. This downtrend marks a significant departure from recent stability, highlighting the complex interplay of global events and market positioning. Geopolitical Factors and US Dollar Dynamics The primary catalyst behind the recent slump has been the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Investors are increasingly optimistic about the prospects of diplomatic resolution, bolstered by the upcoming US-Russian summit scheduled for Friday. Many market participants believe that this high-level meeting could pave the way for de-escalation and possibly bring an end to the prolonged war, reducing the perceived need for safe-haven assets like gold. Simultaneously, a surge in US Dollar buying has contributed to gold's decline. As the dollar strengthens, the relative attractiveness of gold diminishes since it is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies. This dynamic has compounded the downward pressure on gold prices, further amplifying the current bearish momentum. Market Positioning: Divergence Between Retail and Institutional Traders A noteworthy aspect of the current market landscape is the divergence observed between different trader groups. Non-commercial traders, often institutional investors and hedge funds, have increased their long positions on gold. This suggests a continued belief in the metal’s potential as a safe haven or a strategic asset. Conversely, retail traders appear to be shifting towards short positions, possibly reacting to the recent price decline or attempting to capitalize on a short-term correction. This divergence signals a potential imbalance in market sentiment and could hint at an upcoming volatility spike. Typically, such divergences between large institutional positions and retail sentiment can precede significant price movements, either a reversal or a deeper correction. Technical Outlook and Upcoming Data Releases Looking ahead, technical analysts are eyeing the possibility of a further spike down in gold prices before any potential rebound. The current trend suggests a bearish movement, but a volatile market environment could see a sharp correction or a "spike down" between today and the end of the week. Adding to the market's uncertainty are upcoming macroeconomic data releases, notably the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month and the overall CPI figures. These indicators are critical as they influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and can significantly impact dollar strength and precious metals’ prices. A surprise in these data points could either reinforce the bearish trend or trigger a reversal, especially if inflation figures diverge from consensus estimates. Trading Strategy: Looking for a Long Setup Despite the current bearish tone, there is a strategic opportunity for traders to position themselves for a potential rebound. Given the divergence and upcoming data releases, many are eyeing a long setup—buying opportunities that could capitalize on a short-term correction or a reversal once market fears subside. Traders should monitor key support levels around current prices and watch for confirmation signals in price action and volume. A strong bounce or reversal pattern following the release of inflation data could present an ideal entry point for long positions, aligning with the broader view of a potential spike down followed by a recovery. Conclusion Gold remains a dynamic asset influenced by geopolitical developments, currency movements, and trader positioning. While the recent decline signals caution, the divergence in trader sentiment and upcoming economic data provide traders with a strategic landscape ripe for potential opportunities. As always, careful analysis and risk management are paramount in navigating these volatile markets. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
Support’s on Life Support. Paging Dr. TokyoMGC is currently trading at 3,393.8, positioned at the 0% retracement of the recent leg from 3,510.2 down to current lows. The prior swing high at 3,510.2 marks the 100% Fib, with the 50% retracement at 3,451.18 acting as the mid-range pivot. Price action has been in a sustained downtrend since rejecting the 50% retracement level, with EMAs aligned bearish on the H1. The Point of Control (POC) for this distribution is located at 3,492.0, which coincides with the upper value area, untested since the selloff. Bias Assessment: - Bearish Bias: 60% Probability - Bullish Bias: 40% Probability - Volatility Expectation: Moderate in Asian session, potential acceleration on key level breaks due to lower liquidity. Bearish Scenario – Primary Path: - Breakdown confirmation requires an H1 close 3,393.4 (0% Fib). - Immediate target: 3,365.0 (local structural demand) - Extended target: 3,350.0 (measured move completion / previous support cluster) - Risk trigger: Failure to break 3,393 followed by reclaim of 3,410 negates short bias. Bullish Scenario – Alternate Path: - Defense of 3,393.4 with absorption will reclaim 3,410.0 (minor LVN). - Upside target 1: 3,451.18 (50% Fib, key mid-range) - Upside target 2: 3,492.0 (POC, high-volume resistance) - Continuation trigger: Break and hold - 3,492 opens 3,510.2 retest. Key Tokyo Session Levels: - Support: 3,393.4 → 3,365.0 → 3,350.0 - Resistance: 3,410.0 → 3,451.18 → 3,492.0 → 3,510.2 Tokyo session tends to front-load stop hunts in the first 15–30 minutes. Prefer confirmation based entries at key level breaks with tight stops in low-liquidity conditions. Position sizing should be reduced relative to NY/London volatility profile. Happy Trading
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd
Gold Futures: Short-Term Bounce Before Bigger Play?Gold Futures (MGC) has now reached the H4 + Daily FVG confluence zone we’ve been tracking over the past few days. Price action has been decisively bearish, breaking key intraday supports and targeting liquidity below the weekly low. On the 1H & 4H, the ADX > 25 confirms strong short-term momentum, but the higher timeframes (8H+) still lack the directional conviction for the “big play.” This suggests the current move may be part of a broader setup still in development. Here’s the scenario I’m watching: Asian Session: Potential bullish retracement toward the POC in the volume profile as buyers step in from current FVG support. London Session: Opportunity for shorts if price tags the supply zone around 3,430–3,447 and fails to reclaim higher levels. NY Session: Possible reaction inside the remaining bullish FVGs, especially if USD news catalysts shake up momentum. 📊 Key Levels: Support: 3,397 (W-L), 3,385–3,350 (lower FVG & HVN). Resistance: 3,432–3,447 (supply), 3,466 (D-H). Bias: Short-term bounce → London short setup → watch for NY session reaction. Tomorrow’s USD-heavy news cycle could be the volatility driver that determines whether we get a deeper drop into the 3,350s or a reclaim back toward the mid-3,400s.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
A-Book vs B-Book: What Every Retail Trader Needs to Know█ A-Book vs B-Book: What Every Retail Trader Needs to Know Most retail CFD traders have never even heard the terms “A-Book” and “B-Book,” yet almost all of them are directly affected by how these models work. Your broker’s choice between the two can change the prices you see, how your orders are filled, and even whether your stop loss gets hit. Let’s break it down so you know exactly what’s going on behind the scenes. █ What is A-Book? An A-Book broker routes your orders straight to external liquidity providers, such as banks, market makers, or directly to an exchange in the case of futures or spot markets. Your broker is essentially the middleman, passing your trade along and matching it with a real counterparty. ⚪ How they make money: Spreads (the difference between the bid and ask prices). Commissions on each trade. Occasionally a small markup on the feed. Because they don’t profit when you lose, an A-Book broker’s ideal client is a trader who trades frequently and consistently, your activity is their revenue stream. █ What is B-Book? A B-Book broker keeps your trades “in-house,” meaning they take the other side of your position. If you buy, they sell; if you sell, they buy, but all within their own system. Your trades don’t reach the real market at all. ⚪ How they make money: Your losses are their profits. They may still earn on spreads and commissions, but the main income is the net loss of their client base. Because the broker profits from losing clients, there’s an inherent conflict of interest. It’s not that every B-Book broker is out to get you, but the incentive structure is very different from A-Book. █ Hybrid Models – The Modern Reality Today, many CFD brokers use a hybrid model. This means small accounts or “unprofitable” clients might be B-Booked, while larger or riskier trades are hedged via A-Book routing. This approach balances their risk and maximizes profits. █ The Stop Loss Mystery – Why It Sometimes Gets Hit When It “Shouldn’t” A common complaint among retail traders is this: “My stop loss was triggered on my CFD broker’s chart, but the real market price never touched it.” ⚪ Here’s why this happens: B-Book influence: If your trade is kept in-house, the price you see is the broker’s internal feed, not the pure exchange price. Minor spikes or wicks can appear that don’t exist on the actual CME or underlying market. Different price feeds: Even A-Book brokers often aggregate liquidity from multiple sources, leading to small discrepancies from the official exchange price. Overnight sessions: Many CFD brokers price products nearly 24 hours a day, even when the underlying market is closed. This “synthetic” pricing can produce moves that never happened in the actual market. The result? You might see your stop hit during quiet, low-volume hours when the real market was nowhere near that level. Side-by-side comparison showing a large wick on a CFD gold chart (left) that never occurred on the actual CME gold futures market (right). This kind of discrepancy can trigger stop losses on CFD platforms, even though the real market price never reached that level — a classic example of the Stop Loss Mystery. █ Stop Hunting – When the Market Seems Out to Get You Closely related to the stop-loss mystery is stop hunting, when price spikes just far enough to trigger a cluster of stops before reversing sharply. In a pure B-Book setup, your broker isn’t just your counterparty, they can also see exactly where all their clients’ stops are placed. If they control the price feed, even the smallest manufactured move in their internal system can sweep through those levels. This can happen intentionally to lock in profits from client losses, or simply as a by-product of how their system reacts during thin liquidity. From your perspective, it feels like the market was “out to get you,” touching your stop and then running in your direction. But often, that move never existed in the real underlying market at all, it was born inside the broker’s own pricing environment. And while low-volume hours are prime time for this, it can still happen in the middle of the busiest trading sessions. Comparison of gold CFD pricing (left) and CME gold futures (right). The CFD chart shows a wick that sweeps above previous highs, potentially triggering stop losses, while the real futures market shows no such move, a classic example of suspected stop hunting on CFD feeds. █ Why This Matters for Retail Traders Understanding whether your broker uses A-Book, B-Book, or hybrid execution changes how you view price discrepancies, stop-loss triggers, and even your broker’s incentives. A-Book: Broker earns from your trading volume, not your losses. B-Book: Broker earns directly from your losses. Hybrid: They can switch between models depending on the trade and client profile. Knowing this doesn’t just help you choose a broker, it helps you understand the “market” you’re actually trading in. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by Zeiierman
36
Gold’s Two-Zone Patience Play – Wait for the FVGs to SpeakPrice action on GC is sitting in no-man’s land, caught between two key imbalances. Above: 1H Bearish FVG at $3,470–$3,480. Below: H4 Bullish FVG at $3,350–$3,375, aligned with the Weekly Low. I’m waiting for price to step into one of these “Patience Zones” before committing. A push up into the 1H FVG during a killzone could set up shorts targeting the W-L and the H4 FVG fill. A drop into the H4 FVG first — especially with a sweep of $3,397 — could provide the low of the week and a strong bullish reversal. No mid-range chasing here — let liquidity do the heavy lifting.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
Shorting GoldWell, it does looks like short needs to be shorted. I mean on bigger timeframes, the price has been rejected and corrected hard from the 3,533 area. This also means that there is tons of liquidity that is waiting to be taken above that level. So just to cut short the confusion, technically, once the price tapped into that level, it rejected and broke a bullish leg. So technically i would say that we are at least going to correct. Also i have identified the area of interest with entry and targets. Hopefully it goes through.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by lojjkkjvvv
Tokyo Gold Fight Club. First Rule: Respect the POCGold is setting up for a clean Tokyo session play, and the chart structure couldn’t be clearer. We’re currently sitting just above the 0% Fib at 3,452.1, after a controlled rotation down from the Point of Control at 3,488.5. That POC is key it’s where the highest traded volume of the session sits, meaning it’s a true decision point for buyers and sellers. The 50% Fib at 3,481.3 lines up with a low volume node, which often acts as a springboard or rejection zone depending on who’s in control. Above that, we have a tight resistance cluster the POC, the psychological level at 3,500, and the 100% Fib at 3,510.5 all stack together, creating a major liquidity magnet if price can rally into it. My primary bias into Tokyo is bearish (around 65% probability) unless we see a decisive breakout above 3,500. The preferred short setup is a push into 3,480–3,490 that fails to hold, with stops above 3,500 to stay safe from any thin session spikes. In that case, I’m targeting the session low at 3,452.1 first, then 3,435 for the second scale-out, and finally 3,420 if sellers press the advantage. The alternative scenario, with a 35% probability, is a clean break and hold above 3,500, which flips bias long. In that case, the upside play would be to enter on a breakout retest, with stops back under the POC at 3,488, targeting the Fib high at 3,510.5 first and then 3,525 as a stretch target. Tokyo tends to give one of two plays in gold: either a low volume POC retest that rejects and runs in the prevailing direction, or a sharp reclaim of a key level that forces an aggressive squeeze. Until proven otherwise, I’m watching 3,480–3,490 as the battleground and planning to short rejection wicks there, keeping risk tight and targets clearly defined.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd
GOLD: Still Bullish, But Is It Time For A Pullback?In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Aug 11 - 15th. Gold is bullish on the Monthly, Neutral on the Weekly, Bullish on the Daily. Strong close to last week. Tariffs on Swiss Bars coming into the US sent prices higher, but Trump took some of the steam off late with statements of clarifying the misinformation about the tariffs. Will this bullishness continue? Look for prices to retrace further into the consolidation, as it started on Friday. There is a poi that price could target in discount of the range. There we could find a high probability buying opportunity. Be wary of the pullback, as that move is likely to be corrected, but that would set up a great long opportunity! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!
by RT_Money
2
GOLD | NEW WEEK TECHNICAL BIAS (MARKET OPEN) HTF Bias (Daily/Weekly): Macro trend remains bullish — recent impulsive leg to fresh highs confirms strong upside momentum. However, price is currently extended and undergoing a corrective pullback. 4H Context: After a sharp rally into 3,534 (primary impulse target), gold is retracing into the Flipped Cap Zone at 3,430–3,445 — a prior resistance now acting as support. Holding this band keeps the bullish continuation scenario intact. Key Zones & Levels: Primary Liquidity: Above 3,534.1 (OCZ — main upside target) Buy Zone : 3,430–3,445 (Flipped Cap / potential re-entry base) Invalidation: Daily/4H close below 3,420 → shifts bias bearish toward 3,389–3,350 PIZ Secondary Liquidity: 3,420–3,397 (intermediate OCZs) Deeper Bearish Trigger: Break below 3,336.0 opens path to 3,280 and lower. Bias Outlook: Bullish continuation favored if 3,430–3,445 holds, targeting liquidity above the 3,534 OCZ. Break and close below 3,420 tilts the odds toward a deeper correction. ⚠️ Purely technical – no fundamentals. 📌 This is a strategic directional bias, not financial advice. Execute only with confirmation and proper risk management.
COMEX:GC1!
by Olamitrades1
Gold completing a 4-month Bull Flag consolidation, 3800 next! We can see the classic bull flag consolidation pattern which has been going on ever since the stock market decided to go on a rager! Even with that going on, smart money continues to buy gold on the dips as you should too. Once Trump installs a phoney new BLS chief and moves to pressure the Fed by nominating a new governor after Kugler's departure the message will be clear: 1) the BLS and the Fed are no longer independent 2) the US dollar is going to tank 3) Gold is going to boom! Good luck and happy trading!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CryptoTaoist