micro pattern provides structure for upward continuation 1->3 : higher high, number 2 confirmed low
4: return and pullish reaction
what do I think will happen next ?
* a return to number 4 would provide a good
rr entry with proven buyers to protect our trade
* I have bullish divergence on RSI and MFI
* vwap seems to confirm bullish sentiment with bar reacting off vwap line
* pullback pitchfork pinpoints current bar
GCD1! trade ideas
Gold looks interesting again.Gold has successfully worked off its prior overbought condition through a period of sideways consolidation rather than a corrective drawdown. This resilience—marked by the metal’s unwillingness to print lower lows—points to a constructive setup.
Technical Setup
Support: The 50-day EMA has held as a key support level, reinforcing the bullish bias.
Breakout Potential: Should price resolve higher out of the current range, the move could prove sharp and decisive given the stored energy of consolidation.
Breadth Confirmation: While gold has moved sideways, GDX (miners) has already pushed to fresh highs, and silver is breaking out, signaling strong cross-complex participation.
Thematic Takeaway
The broad alignment across gold, silver, and miners suggests a healthy underlying bid for the precious metals complex. This type of breadth historically strengthens the case for sustained upside momentum rather than an isolated rally.
Gold Bulls Eye Breakout, But Caution May Be RequiredI'm seeing a lot of bullish calls for a gold breakout this week, and the contrarian within me suspects this could lead to disappointment over the near term. Even though my core bias is for gold to reach new highs eventually. Today I look at market exposure to gold futures from the commitment of traders report alongside key levels on gold's futures chart.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index.
GC Midweek Outlook – Daily Imbalance Tested, H4 FVG Still in PlaPrice has now completed the move into the Daily FVG (~3425–3443) that I highlighted earlier this week. This is the critical mid-week decision point.
Bearish Case: If price rejects here, downside rotation into the untouched H4 FVG (3377–3396) remains possible before any larger move higher.
Bullish Case: If buyers defend the H1 imbalance and hold above 3412, continuation toward the Monthly High (3451) is on the table.
ADX remains under 25, suggesting no strong trending conditions yet — market is still liquidity-driven.
I’ll be watching the Daily FVG reaction and how price handles the H1 imbalance as key intraday signals.
Gold Futures | ADX Heating Up – Continuation or Trap at MH?Price has pushed away from the untested H4 FVG, showing strong bullish pressure. With ADX > 25 on the 15m and close to crossing on 1H/4H, momentum is shifting into trend mode.
My watch:
Break + retest of yesterday’s high and MH level for continuation longs.
Only looking for shorts if liquidity sweeps above MH and we see strong rejection.
Question is: do we run higher with ADX confirmation, or is this just a trap before a deeper pullback?
How to Trade Morning Star and Evening Star Candlestick Patterns Learn to identify and trade Morning Star and Evening Star candlestick formations using TradingView’s charting tools in this detailed tutorial from Optimus Futures.
Morning and Evening Stars are powerful reversal patterns that often mark turning points in the market. Recognizing them can help you anticipate when momentum is about to shift—and take advantage of new trading opportunities.
What You’ll Learn:
• How Morning Stars signal bullish reversals at the end of a downtrend
• How Evening Stars indicate bearish reversals after extended uptrends
• The three-candle structure of each pattern and what it means for trader psychology
• Why indecision candles (like dojis) play a critical role in confirming momentum shifts
• Using volume confirmation to validate Morning and Evening Star setups
• The importance of context: spotting these patterns at major support and resistance levels
• Setting effective stop losses at the high/low of the pattern for risk control
• Advanced entry tactic: waiting for retracement after confirmation to optimize risk/reward
This tutorial may help futures traders and technical analysts who want to harness candlestick reversal signals to identify potential market turning points.
The strategies covered could assist you in creating structured setups when strong buying or selling pressure appears at key chart levels.
Learn more about futures trading with TradingView:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objective
GC - Gold Re-Testing The L-MLH - Short AheadFirst we crack the L-MLH.
Then we got a test and now the re-test.
On a close outside the fork it's a present to short wit stops above somewhere the wicks high.
Profit at the orange Centerline (PTG1) and at the Red Centerline. All in all a wonderful trade with a decent risk/reward.
And if the train leaves without us, NO FOMO please §8-)
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Gold Income or Bargain Entry?The Setup: A Pullback with a Plan
Gold has been riding a strong bullish wave, yet momentum indicators suggest it's time for a breather. RSI is now overbought, and if history repeats, we could see a healthy correction of up to 9.29%, in line with prior pullbacks. This projects price near 3255, where we also find a cluster of UnFilled Orders (UFOs) acting as a potentially relevant support. It’s a key price area where buyers may step in again.
Rather than try to perfectly time the correction or the bottom, we’re applying a more forgiving approach: selling a PUT far below current price—generating income while leaving room to be wrong by over 375 points.
This is not a hedge. This is a standalone income strategy that accepts risk but frames it intelligently using technical context and options structure.
The Strategy: Selling the 3250 PUT on GC
We're using a simple but powerful strategy—selling a naked PUT—which can generate income or result in ownership of Gold at a deep discount if price dips.
Underlying Asset: GCZ2025 – using Gold Futures Options (Nov 24 2025 Expiration)
Strategy: Sell 1x 3250 PUT
Premium Collected: 10.09 points ≈ $1,009
Breakeven Price: 3240
Max Profit: $1,009 (if Gold stays above 3250 until expiration)
Max Risk: Unlimited below breakeven
There are two possible outcomes here:
Gold stays above 3250 → we keep the full premium.
Gold drops below 3250 → we get assigned and become long GC at 3250. From there, we’re exposed to downside risk in Gold, with a breakeven at 3240.
The position benefits from time decay and stable to rising prices, but it does carry the full downside exposure of long Gold futures if the trade moves against us.
We want to be very clear here—this is a naked trade with undefined risk. That doesn’t make it reckless if done with sizing discipline and technical alignment, but it’s not a beginner-friendly strategy.
Gold Contract Specs
Understanding the size and risk of what you're trading is critical—especially with naked options.
✅ GC – Gold Futures (Full Size)
Symbol: GC
Contract Size: 100 troy ounces
Tick Size: 0.10 = $10
Point Value: 1 point = $100
Initial Margin (as of Sep 2025): ~$15,000 per contract (subject to change)
Underlying for the Option: GC Futures
✅ MGC – Micro Gold Futures
Symbol: MGC
Contract Size: 10 troy ounces
Tick Size: 0.10 = $1
Point Value: 1 point = $10
Initial Margin: ~$1,500 per contract (subject to change)
Why does this matter?
Because if GC collapses below 3250 and you're assigned long, you’ll be exposed to full-size futures. That’s $100 per point of movement. A 50-point drop? That's $5,000 in unrealized loss.
That’s where MGC becomes your best ally. Micro Gold futures offer a scalable way to hedge. If price begins moving down or breaks below the support zone, one could short MGC against the Short GC 3250 PUT to cap further losses or rebalance directional exposure with reduced size and margin impact.
The Technical Confluence: Where Structure Meets Strategy
The 3250 strike isn’t just a random number—it’s calculated. Historical RSI-based corrections in Gold have shown recent worse-case scenarios around 9.29%, and projecting that from recent highs lands us precisely near the 3255 zone. This level also aligns with a clear UFO support, where institutional buyers have likely left behind unfilled orders.
That confluence—statistical retracement, technical indicator, and order flow support—gives the 3250 strike an interesting probability structure. Selling a Put beneath it means we are placing our bet below the “floor” and getting paid while we wait.
If Gold never corrects that far, we profit.
If it does, we might get long near a historically meaningful level.
There’s no need to catch the top. There’s no need to nail the bottom.
Just structure the trade where the odds are already potentially skewed in your favor.
Trade Plan: Reward, Risk & Realism
This trade isn’t about precision entry or leveraged glory—it’s about risk-defined logic with a cash-flow twist. Here's the full breakdown:
🧠 Trade Parameters
Strategy: Sell 1x Gold Futures 3250 PUT Options
Premium Collected: 10.09 points = $1,009
Point Value (GC): $100/point
Breakeven Price: 3240 (3250 – 10)
Expiration: Nov 24, 2025
🟩 If Gold Stays Above 3250
You keep the full premium → $1,009 profit
🟥 If Gold Falls Below 3250
You may be assigned 1 GC contra<ct long at 3250
Unrealized losses begin below breakeven (3240)
Losses can be significant if Gold falls aggressively
⚠️ Reward-to-Risk?
Reward is capped at $1,009
Risk is unlimited below breakeven
The trade only makes sense if you're prepared to own Gold, or hedge dynamically via MGC or using any other technique
This isn’t a “set-and-forget” income play—it’s a calculated entry into a structured exposure with a fallback plan.
Risk Management: No Margin for Error
Selling naked options isn’t “free money.” It’s responsibility wrapped in premium. Here's what must be considered:
❗ Undefined Risk
When you sell a naked PUT, you're exposed to the full downside. If Gold drops $100 below your strike, that’s a $10,000 loss. Don’t sell naked options unless you’re ready—and capitalized—to buy the underlying or actively hedge it.
🔄 Use MGC to Hedge
If Gold breaks below 3250, using Micro Gold Futures (MGC) offers a surgical way to hedge risk without overleveraging. A simple short MGC can offset GC losses proportionally, depending on how aggressive the move becomes.
🧮 Precision Matters
Avoid entering trades too early or too large.
Place an “invalidation” point: if price violates the support zone with conviction, reduce or hedge exposure.
Never sell premium just because it’s “high”—sell where structure backs the trade.
📊 Discipline Trumps Direction
This strategy is valid only if risk is respected. The market doesn’t owe anyone consistency—but a structured, risk-controlled approach keeps you in the game long enough to see it.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Gold Futures Short Into Asia 9/7/25Based on the current Fair Value Gap (FVG), Order Block (OB), and the liquidity resting below, I anticipate gold will retrace toward the Point of Control (POC) identified on the volume profile. This would provide an ideal setup for short-term selling opportunities during tonight’s PM session.
My expectation is for price to open lower, push into the 3658 range, and present a bearish entry signal. From there, I’ll be targeting shorts toward the equilibrium of the FVG around 3619, which also aligns closely with previous session highs and lows—adding confluence to the setup.
GC 4H icc analysisGold has been in a clear uptrend and ran into resistance between 3574.6/3587.9. Price broke the zone and indicated that sellers were weak above 3587.9, continued to climb making a new high before correcting back below the zone. Once price hit a support, it continued back above 3587.9 aggressively making a new indication and a new high.
Entry: around 3587.9 (after reversal confirmation on 1 hour)
Stop loss: Below last low
Target: Last swing high
Not financial advice.
gold is at the edge of pullback if structure is correct 1->3 : number 3 closes above number 1 ,
making number 2 proven buyers
3->4 : return to proven buyers
next ?
* lower LRC extended to 3 deviation points for
potential extreme pullback
* rsi and mfi hidden bull ( continuation) + oversold
* these complex tools can be embarresingly
bad.. but schiff pitchfork with frequency
shifting catches an edge in obv indicator, alongside diagonal trendline and horizontal support line
buyers are being setup for a trap , it seems obvious but dontmy theory for gold sells
*I was initially bullish until
I noticed a few tricky things
* structure number 2 is not
a solid low, meaning they
have not proven themselves
to be stronger than number 1
sellers, because they have not
created a push above them,
so this low is misleading and
not a proper stop
* obv is in a downtrend while
price is in an uptrend, obv
in downtrend means that there
is an increased selling interest ,
so this diverging from price going
up can only mean .... there
are no buyers and price is not going up
due to a huge amount of buying power but the sellers are not pushing too hard in specific areas
* the 3 support lines are not solid support, in fact they are all wicks and 'fake lows'
* I dont have a solid stop to enter a short,
but all these things + divergence on rsi and mfi is just telling me that the obvious
buy trade might be a trap
Intraday Bearish Narrative – London Session (Gold Futures)Gold opened the London session under clear downside pressure, extending weakness from the prior U.S. session. After a strong rally into the 3619–3620 area, sellers regained control, forming lower highs and pressing price below the descending trendline (red dashed).
During London hours, attempts to recover above 3600–3606 failed, reinforcing the bearish bias. The current setup aligns with a sell-on-rally structure: price has retested the broken trendline and prior support-turned-resistance zone near 3610–3613, where sellers defended strongly.
As long as price holds below 3613, the bearish structure remains intact, with intraday downside targets layered at:
3593.5 (nearest support, minor liquidity pocket)
3569–3566 (London extension target, key demand zone)
3550–3548 (deeper measured move target if momentum accelerates).
Stops are well-placed above 3610–3613, invalidating the setup if buyers reclaim this supply zone.
📉 Bias: Bearish intraday continuation, favoring shorts beneath 3610–3613 with room for multiple downside liquidity sweeps into the mid-3500s.
return to proven sellers presents sell continuation could not post on time due to 10 post per day limit. I entered as per the drawing tool visualization.
1->3 : creates a lower low , number 2 are dominant sellers
3->4: we see a solid buying pressure coming to meet our
sellers who have pushed the market below the previous
attempt to push up at number 1
what next ?
* a break below support / micro bull turn point with stop
above number 2 would look safe
* from number 2->4 I have a 2nd degree bearish divergence
* increasing volitility and sideways movemnet as market
prepares to open and perhaps pick a direction
* vwap 1st standard deviation from number 1
*extreme of peak #2 might align with vwap and vpoc ,
perhaps a sell stop when price reaches there ... which
it might when volume picks up
*despite price going up, staying under
obv trendline showing selling interest
*micro bear pattern wanted