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Micro Gold Futures (Jun 2025)

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MGCM2025 trade ideas

Gold Futures (GC1!) UpdateCurrent Price: ~$3,588 Gold recently broke out to new highs but is now pulling back after a sharp rally. ✅ Bullish Case * Trend is still strong overall (higher highs & higher lows). * If price holds above $3,550–$3,570, bulls may push for a retest of $3,620–$3,650. ❌ Bearish Case *If gold breaks below $3,550, a deeper pullback toward $3,480–$3,450 is possible. 🎯 Takeaway * Short-term pullback after a strong run. * Key support = $3,550 zone. * Watch for a bounce to confirm continuation, or a break lower for correction. 📝 Quick Chart Guide for Newbies * Candlesticks: Green = price went up, Black = price went down. * Trend: Gold has been trending up since late 2024 (higher peaks & dips). * Resistance: Around $3,620–$3,650 (where sellers step in). * Key Support: Around $3,550 (where buyers step in). 👉 In simple terms: Gold is still bullish, but needs to stay above $3,550 to keep momentum. 👉 What’s your bias? Long continuation or short-term pullback? Don't forget to drop your comments/ideas, boost the post, and follow me for more updates! -Neo
COMEX:GC1!
by Neotrader_CFT
13
Gold, Yields, and the Fed: How Monetary Policy Drives Markets Few forces shape global markets more than U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, maximum employment and 2% inflation is the anchor for its decisions. For traders, understanding how these objectives translate into interest rate changes is critical for positioning in gold futures and across the yield curve. The Fed’s Dual Mandate 1. Maximum Employment: Support jobs and minimize unemployment. 2. Stable Prices (2% inflation target): Prevent runaway inflation or deflation. The Fed balances these goals using interest rates: • Raising rates: Cools demand, strengthens the dollar, lifts yield, weighs on gold. • Cutting rates: Stimulates demand, weakens the dollar, lowers real yields, supports gold. The tension lies in the trade-off: controlling inflation often hurts employment, while boosting employment risks higher inflation. Gold and Monetary Policy Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation): • Hawkish Fed: Higher real yields, dollar strength, gold struggles. • Dovish Fed: Lower real yields, weaker dollar, gold rallies. However, given the recent surge in gold prices despite higher rates, traders must ask: • Will gold continue rising as odds of rate cuts increase, and when they are eventually delivered? • Is the traditional correlation between the dollar and gold futures prices breaking down? Gold’s rally has also been driven by geopolitical tensions and rising long term yields, reflecting rising debt burdens across the globe. Yield Curve and Monetary Policy The yield curve reflects expectations about growth, inflation, and Fed policy. • Short end (1M–5Y): Anchored by Fed policy rates. If markets expect hikes/cuts, the front end moves first. • Long end (10Y–30Y): Driven by expectations for long-term inflation, growth, and Treasury supply/demand dynamics. Typically, investors and market participants watch for the following patterns: • Inverted curve: Short yields > long yields, often a recession signal. See last year’s yield curve. • Steepening curve: Usually follows Fed cuts, as front-end yields drop faster than the back end. Two Classic Scenarios Scenario 1: Inflation Stays High, Jobs Weaken • Fed resists cutting, prioritizing price stability. • Gold: Consolidates or weakens (real yields elevated). • Yield curve: While the short end stays pinned, long end could rise on higher inflation risk and increasing debt worries, signaling stagflation risk. Scenario 2: Inflation Stabilizes, Jobs Weaken • Fed pivots dovish, prioritizing employment. • Gold: Breaks higher on falling real yields. • Yield curve: Steepens as short yields fall faster than long yields. The Policy Backdrop Powell’s last symposium before his term ends, at the Jackson Hole appearance, Fed Chair Powell delivered a dovish pivot, highlighting rising risks to the labor market while downplaying the inflationary effects of tariffs. The reasoning behind this shift deserves its own deep dive, but for now, our focus remains squarely on how monetary policy, specifically interest rate decisions, impacts inflation, growth, supply, and demand in the U.S. economy. What’s on the Docket Until the Next Fed Meeting (September 17, 2025) Markets will be glued to data in the coming weeks: • Aug PCE / Core PCE (Aug 28–29) → Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. • Aug NFP (Sep 5) → Labor market health; weak print strengthens the case for cuts. • Aug PPI (Sep 10) → Upstream price pressures; hot numbers signal inflation risks. • Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11) → Key headline data; softer print supports dovish case. • Fed Decision (Sep 17) → Will Powell stress inflation vigilance, or shift toward labor concerns? How the Charts Tie It Together • Gold Futures: o Ascending Triangle breakout above resistance towards $3,600, if Fed pivots dovish and deliver a rate cut or a bigger rate cut. o Ascending Triangle breakdown toward $3,350 if inflation remains sticky and the Fed holds. In this scenario, gold remains in balance overall. • Yield Curve: o Short end reacts directly to Fed rate expectations. o Long end reflects investor conviction on inflation, growth and increasing debt concerns. Takeaway for Traders The Fed’s dual mandate creates a constant push and pull between inflation control and employment support. Gold and the yield curve are two of the clearest real-time mirrors of that balancing act: • Watch short-term yields and gold to gauge how markets are pricing the Fed’s next move. • Watch the long end of the curve to see whether investors believe inflation is truly anchored. By linking economic data → Fed mandate → asset price response, traders gain a roadmap that works not just for this Fed meeting, but for every one that follows. In our next educational blog we will briefly explore other policy tools used by the Fed i.e., QE and QT. Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening. FRED:FEDFUNDS ECONOMICS:USINTR CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! CBOT:ZB1! CBOT:ZN1!
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
20
Basic Trading Marking up Support and Resistance In this lesson, I walk through the basics of how I mark support and resistance levels on my charts. These key zones highlight areas where price has reacted multiple times, creating strong consolidation. Within these zones, there’s often opportunity to capture moves as the market ranges and builds momentum. By identifying these levels, traders can better anticipate entries, manage risk, and find room to profit inside the zone before price makes its next breakout or reversal.
CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025
by TPTG
4
Basic Trading: Marking Support and Resistance In this lesson, I walk through the basics of how I mark support and resistance levels on my charts. These key zones highlight areas where price has reacted multiple times, creating strong consolidation. Within these zones, there’s often opportunity to capture moves as the market ranges and builds momentum. By identifying these levels, traders can better anticipate entries, manage risk, and find room to profit inside the zone before price makes its next breakout or reversal.
CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025
by TPTG
1
Gold Surge: Preparing for a Possible Pullback at Supply ZoneThroughout August, gold has steadily risen in value, experiencing only minor retracements along the way. Currently, the price is approaching a significant daily supply zone, situated at the top of the market. Recent data indicates that non-commercial traders have been increasing their short positions over the past few weeks, hinting at a potential capitulation or liquidation of positions soon. Meanwhile, retail investors continue to push longs, whereas commercial traders remain positioned more neutrally, gradually adding to their holdings. Moving forward, I will closely monitor the next supply zone, as it could present an ideal opportunity to initiate a short position, capitalizing on potential market exhaustion at this resistance level. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by FOREXN1
4
All Time Highs for Precious MetalsGold and Silver are continuing to show resilience today leading the precious metals higher to new all time high prices. Looking at the Gold market, today marks 5 consecutive days with a higher all-time high and a higher low, and Silver has had 4 consecutive days with a higher high and higher low, which is rare to see at elevated prices for these markets. There was some significant data released looking at JOLTs, which was the lowest reported number since Match of 2021 which led Gold and Silver to both see positive gains again today. Along with that, there is an expected nonfarm payrolls report and an unemployment rate coming out Friday, and the nonfarm payrolls number is expected at 74k, which is the lowest expected number since February of 2021. Equity markets battled back and forth today and the S&P and Nasdaq were able to finish the day positive with a strong upside move into the close. With the equities trading near all time high prices, there will be a lot of attention on the economic data for the rest of the week looking at jobs and employment. The CME Fed Watch Tool also saw slight shifts over the past 2 days and now are pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut for the September and October meeting. These figures have been changing rapidly, and traders will get more clarity once we hear from Powell after the September meeting in a few weeks. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GC1!
by CME_Group
Gold Lags Behind SilverGold lags behind silver. I’m referring to silver’s percentage gains outpacing gold, not suggesting that silver is becoming more expensive than gold. Investors and traders focus on percentage gains, whereas consumers buying jewelry make decisions based on how much it’ll actually cost them. Last year, silver’s 60% gain outpaced gold’s 40%, and year-to-date, silver has once again outperformed gold with a 52% gain compared to gold’s 36%. Micro Silver Futures Ticker: SIL Minimum fluctuation: 0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
A Gold/GLD Drop Scenario You Should Not IgnoreSometimes you don't need a ton of information. Sometimes, it's just the right moment when a few facts come together, and you make up your mind. That's the case now with Gold for me. We know that the behavior changed when Gold left the Fork in July. We also know that if price leaves a Fork, it's highly possible we’ll see a test/re-test at the L-MLH, the lower median line parallel. Additionally, Allan H. Andrews, the inventor of the Median Lines/Forks, wrote back then that price could also crawl along the parallel line for a longer period. And if price can't manage to jump back into the Fork—regaining the trajectory of the slope—it will trade in the opposite direction sooner or later. Last but not least: I checked GLD too. Surprisingly it reached the Centerline just yesterday (See screenshot in the right lower corner of the Chart). So price has a high tendency to turn in the opposite direction when balanced again. So, there you have it. I’m planning a short, with profits at the WL as my first target. But what if it goes wrong, if price climbs higher? Well, then I’ll probably get stopped out, which is nothing more than part of this business. Any questions? Don't hesitate to ask me. It's the only way humans learn—by asking questions. Cheers §8-)
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish! Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Sept 1 - 15th. Gold has been ranging for months. August closed strong, above the high of July. I am looking for continuation of this bullish momentum in September. Wait for buying opportunities. Be patient. +FVGs will form, and present the best POIs for long entries. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
Gold Futures – Momentum Strong but Eyes on Jobs DataPrice pushed extremely bullish yesterday, with little chance for pullbacks. I admittedly got stopped out a few times from reacting too quickly to impulses, so today I’m focused on patience and waiting for confirmation. Currently, Gold is holding above recent levels after breaking higher. There’s still a clean 4H/8H FVG below that price could revisit, but as long as momentum stays intact, buyers remain in control. ⚠️ Important: Tomorrow brings ADP Non-Farm Employment, Jobless Claims, and ISM Services PMI — all of which could drive volatility. Friday is the heavyweight NFP release. Until then, we may see liquidity hunts or choppy price action. Scenarios I’m watching: ✅ Bullish continuation toward new highs if support holds. 🔄 Deeper pullback into the FVG if momentum stalls. Staying patient, letting the market show its hand, and keeping risk tight ahead of news.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
WEEKLY LOOK AT GOLD FUTURES Chart speaks for its self - I know JP Morgan has a price target of $3675 by Q4 2025 and over $4000 by Q2 2026. This is weekly chart and we're making a new high that very divergent. So regardless what the investment bank that has paid billions in commodity fraud - I remain sceptical. Nice trend line that we would be nice to revisit. Love to get long but this needs correction for me personally - its been a good run without a doubt. So somewhere between 3150 and 3200 - Why could this happen? Because everyone and their dog is long. When everyone is in the same side of the boat? Every time. The white line is the 200 Week MA.
COMEX:GC1!
by Maximilianned
Gold Futures (MGC / GC) — Daily Outlook (Wed)Price just broke the previous ATH (3,578) and is in new price discovery. Momentum is bullish, but there are key imbalances below that could attract price before continuation. 🔍 Key Levels ATH (3,578) → breakout level to watch 1H FVG (3,565–3,575) → short-term support zone 4H + 8H FVG stack (3,515–3,535) → deeper liquidity target Immediate resistance → 3,610–3,620 zone ⚖️ Scenarios for Wednesday 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation (primary bias) If ATH (3,578) holds → look for continuation into 3,610–3,620+ 1H FVG may provide a bounce if tested 2️⃣ Deeper Pullback (secondary bias) Failure to hold ATH → watch for a drop into 3,515–3,535 (4H/8H FVGs) before bullish continuation ✅ Trade Plan Idea Continuation play: Buy on ATH retest / 1H FVG bounce (3,575 zone) → target 3,610–3,620+ Deeper retrace play: If ATH breaks clean → wait for price inside 3,515–3,535 zone → look for reversal confirmation long 📌 Notes Momentum = bullish until proven otherwise Don’t chase → wait for either ATH defense or clean retrace into imbalances Manage risk → this is price discovery, expect volatility 📊 What’s your bias here? Do you see price holding ATH for continuation, or do you think we dip first into the deeper FVGs?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
gold is at a decision point to continue upward or retrace furthe1->3 : creates solid major buyers in number 2 , if price closes below number 2 this is obviously invalidated and sellers are showing their hand now 3->4 : we return back to number 2 buyers what do I think will happen next ? * if number 2 buyers can prove themselves, this could be a very good market edge for the buyers to push the market higher, conversly if we push below number 2 , we would wait for a pull back below to other support, as the uptrend is too strong to consider a full on reversal * frequency shifted obv return is possible and using that support to predict buying orders, * hidden bullish rsi and mfi
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by jacesabr_real
Gold Futures | New Month Setup – ATH on Deck?Price has been bullish all week with no significant pullbacks. Now as we step into a new month, Gold is pressing toward the previous All Time High (green line). Key Notes: Market left behind a bullish H4 FVG that could serve as a retracement zone. With Labor Day Monday (early close for NY), setups may be quieter until Tuesday. My bias: looking for a possible pullback into the FVG before continuation higher into fresh ATHs. Watching closely for price action around the previous ATH to confirm breakout or rejection.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
1
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Gold Income or Bargain Entry?The Setup: A Pullback with a Plan Gold has been riding a strong bullish wave, yet momentum indicators suggest it's time for a breather. RSI is now overbought, and if history repeats, we could see a healthy correction of up to 9.29%, in line with prior pullbacks. This projects price near 3255, where we also find a cluster of UnFilled Orders (UFOs) acting as a potentially relevant support. It’s a key price area where buyers may step in again. Rather than try to perfectly time the correction or the bottom, we’re applying a more forgiving approach: selling a PUT far below current price—generating income while leaving room to be wrong by over 375 points. This is not a hedge. This is a standalone income strategy that accepts risk but frames it intelligently using technical context and options structure. The Strategy: Selling the 3250 PUT on GC We're using a simple but powerful strategy—selling a naked PUT—which can generate income or result in ownership of Gold at a deep discount if price dips. Underlying Asset: GCZ2025 – using Gold Futures Options (Nov 24 2025 Expiration) Strategy: Sell 1x 3250 PUT Premium Collected: 10.09 points ≈ $1,009 Breakeven Price: 3240 Max Profit: $1,009 (if Gold stays above 3250 until expiration) Max Risk: Unlimited below breakeven There are two possible outcomes here: Gold stays above 3250 → we keep the full premium. Gold drops below 3250 → we get assigned and become long GC at 3250. From there, we’re exposed to downside risk in Gold, with a breakeven at 3240. The position benefits from time decay and stable to rising prices, but it does carry the full downside exposure of long Gold futures if the trade moves against us. We want to be very clear here—this is a naked trade with undefined risk. That doesn’t make it reckless if done with sizing discipline and technical alignment, but it’s not a beginner-friendly strategy. Gold Contract Specs Understanding the size and risk of what you're trading is critical—especially with naked options. ✅ GC – Gold Futures (Full Size) Symbol: GC Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Tick Size: 0.10 = $10 Point Value: 1 point = $100 Initial Margin (as of Sep 2025): ~$15,000 per contract (subject to change) Underlying for the Option: GC Futures ✅ MGC – Micro Gold Futures Symbol: MGC Contract Size: 10 troy ounces Tick Size: 0.10 = $1 Point Value: 1 point = $10 Initial Margin: ~$1,500 per contract (subject to change) Why does this matter? Because if GC collapses below 3250 and you're assigned long, you’ll be exposed to full-size futures. That’s $100 per point of movement. A 50-point drop? That's $5,000 in unrealized loss. That’s where MGC becomes your best ally. Micro Gold futures offer a scalable way to hedge. If price begins moving down or breaks below the support zone, one could short MGC against the Short GC 3250 PUT to cap further losses or rebalance directional exposure with reduced size and margin impact. The Technical Confluence: Where Structure Meets Strategy The 3250 strike isn’t just a random number—it’s calculated. Historical RSI-based corrections in Gold have shown recent worse-case scenarios around 9.29%, and projecting that from recent highs lands us precisely near the 3255 zone. This level also aligns with a clear UFO support, where institutional buyers have likely left behind unfilled orders. That confluence—statistical retracement, technical indicator, and order flow support—gives the 3250 strike an interesting probability structure. Selling a Put beneath it means we are placing our bet below the “floor” and getting paid while we wait. If Gold never corrects that far, we profit. If it does, we might get long near a historically meaningful level. There’s no need to catch the top. There’s no need to nail the bottom. Just structure the trade where the odds are already potentially skewed in your favor. Trade Plan: Reward, Risk & Realism This trade isn’t about precision entry or leveraged glory—it’s about risk-defined logic with a cash-flow twist. Here's the full breakdown: 🧠 Trade Parameters Strategy: Sell 1x Gold Futures 3250 PUT Options Premium Collected: 10.09 points = $1,009 Point Value (GC): $100/point Breakeven Price: 3240 (3250 – 10) Expiration: Nov 24, 2025 🟩 If Gold Stays Above 3250 You keep the full premium → $1,009 profit 🟥 If Gold Falls Below 3250 You may be assigned 1 GC contra<ct long at 3250 Unrealized losses begin below breakeven (3240) Losses can be significant if Gold falls aggressively ⚠️ Reward-to-Risk? Reward is capped at $1,009 Risk is unlimited below breakeven The trade only makes sense if you're prepared to own Gold, or hedge dynamically via MGC or using any other technique This isn’t a “set-and-forget” income play—it’s a calculated entry into a structured exposure with a fallback plan. Risk Management: No Margin for Error Selling naked options isn’t “free money.” It’s responsibility wrapped in premium. Here's what must be considered: ❗ Undefined Risk When you sell a naked PUT, you're exposed to the full downside. If Gold drops $100 below your strike, that’s a $10,000 loss. Don’t sell naked options unless you’re ready—and capitalized—to buy the underlying or actively hedge it. 🔄 Use MGC to Hedge If Gold breaks below 3250, using Micro Gold Futures (MGC) offers a surgical way to hedge risk without overleveraging. A simple short MGC can offset GC losses proportionally, depending on how aggressive the move becomes. 🧮 Precision Matters Avoid entering trades too early or too large. Place an “invalidation” point: if price violates the support zone with conviction, reduce or hedge exposure. Never sell premium just because it’s “high”—sell where structure backs the trade. 📊 Discipline Trumps Direction This strategy is valid only if risk is respected. The market doesn’t owe anyone consistency—but a structured, risk-controlled approach keeps you in the game long enough to see it. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
GC1! Thief Trader Mission – Short Gold, Grab the Loot🚨💰 Thief Trader Gold Heist Plan – GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market 🎭🔒 🌟Hey Robbers & Money Makers!🌟 Welcome back to another OG Thief Trader Robbery Plan — today we’re targeting the shining vault of GC1! "The Gold". This time, the mission is BEARISH. The vault doors are heavy, but with layered sell entries, we’re breaking in! 💣💸 📜 The Plan (Swing/Day Trade) Entry 🏴‍☠️: Any price level — but real thieves don’t rush! Use layered sell limit entries like a pro: 🔹 3360.0 🔹 3370.0 🔹 3380.0 (Add more layers if you’re greedy enough 👀💰) Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL @ 3400.0 (but remember, OG’s — adjust your SL with your own risk appetite & strategy). Target 🎯: Police barricade spotted near 3300.0 — our final escape point is 3310.0. Grab the gold & run before the cops catch you 🚔💨. 📊 Thief Strategy 🕵️‍♂️ We don’t enter with just one order — layering strategy is the art of the heist. Multiple entries = multiple chances to loot the market. Scalpers & swingers both welcome to join this robbery. 📰 Thief’s Outlook (Gold Market Status) Trend: Bearish bias 🐻 Setup: Short the rallies 🔥 Sentiment: Overloaded bulls = perfect robbery target 🎯 Fundamentals & Macros: Inflation heat & policy shifts keeping gold shaky ⚖️ ⚠️ Robbery Warning 🚨 Avoid getting trapped during major news releases 📢. Protect your loot with trailing stops 🛡️. Never risk your whole bag on one entry — spread it thief-style. 💖 Support the crew! 💖 Follow, like, and share this heist plan with your robbery gang 🤝. The more OG’s we got, the bigger the score 💎💰. See you after the escape, thieves — with pockets full & smiles wide 🏆🤑🐱‍👤
COMEX:GC1!Short
by The-Thief