Gold’s outlook after Friday’s newsA question came in on TradingView about gold’s outlook after Friday’s news.
My analysis methodology is built on a holistic review of exchange data, where options flow plays a central role — something long-time followers of my posts are already familiar with.
So here’s what Friday’s options flow is quietly telling us:
🔸 The bearish put spread (on November option series ) targeting lower levels from October 8th onward is still intact — suggesting downside sentiment remains in play.
Now, let’s be realistic:
Sophisticated players can always flip this position mid-flight by adding futures to hedge — turning it into a neutral or even bullish setup if the rally continues.
After all, we’re dealing with pros with deep pockets — and they don’t like losing money.
They’ll adjust. They’ll hedge. They’ll exit clean.
🔸 Second, Friday’s CME activity leaned bearish (screen attached)— or at least, profit-taking (fixing).
We see call strikes above current price either being closed or re-sold.
Volume is present — but open interest is flat, declining, or even negative.
That tells a story:
No new conviction for higher prices.
Just closing old upside bets.
📌 Bottom line:
The flow doesn't scream "crash coming right now" — but it does whisper:
"Be careful with the longs."
Trade ideas
Global Markets Turn Defensive as Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake CoGlobal Markets Turn Defensive as Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake Confidence.
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he is considering a “massive increase” in tariffs on imports from China, signalling a possible escalation in the long-running trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. 
In response, Beijing has vowed to impose countermeasures should Washington proceed with the proposed 100% tariffs, defending its recent export rules while warning that such moves would further raise tensions. 
A high-level meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping — expected on the sidelines of the APEC leaders’ meeting in South Korea later this month — now appears uncertain, with Washington’s recent rhetoric jeopardising the diplomatic groundwork for the summit. 
Markets are already reacting. Investors have been shifting capital toward safe-haven assets, with gold and silver among the biggest beneficiaries of the risk-off move. Gold notably pushed past the $4,000-per-ounce mark amid the turmoil, underscoring strong demand for protection against trade-driven volatility. 
According to World-Signals analysis, with gold prices holding above $4,000 per ounce, any correction toward $3,950–$3,975 is likely to trigger fresh buying interest.
As geopolitical strategy increasingly intersects with resource control — from oil to rare earth elements — the global economic balance may be entering a new phase of heightened volatility. Traders and portfolio managers should watch tariff announcements, export-control actions on critical inputs (including rare earths), and developments around planned diplomatic meetings for signs of market direction. 
Gold Rallies as Geopolitical Tensions EscalatedCOMEX: 1-Ounce Gold Futures (  COMEX:1OZ1! )
Without warning, the music at the Wall Street merry-go-round suddenly stops.
On Thursday, October 9th, China’s Commerce Ministry issues a directive, requiring foreign suppliers to obtain approval to export products with rare-earth materials originating from China if they account for 0.1% or more of the good’s total value. Goods produced with certain technologies from China are also subject to the export controls. Both restrictions apply to products manufactured outside of China.
The next day, US President Donald Trump immediately retaliates with a 100% additional tariff for goods imported from China, starting Nov. 1st. He indicated in a social-media post that the duties will come on top of 30% imposed this year on China, as well as tariffs in place on many Chinese goods before the year started.
Prior to Trump’s comments, US stocks were rising sizably on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite hitting a new all-time intraday high. The TruthSocial post, sent an hour before market close, immediately set off a broad market selloff. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes down 878.82 points, or 1.9%, at 45,479.60. The S&P 500 lost 2.71% to settle at 6,552.51, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.56% to 22,204.43. The broad-based index’s decline was the largest since April 10th. 
  
While the market is under stress, we have witnessed a classic case of flight-to-safety. At the same time when stocks and cryptos slide, gold pops back up above $4,000 again and settles at $4,035.5 an ounce, up $62.9 or +1.58% for the day. Gold futures contracts also rally with large trade volume.
•	The lead contract GCZ5 for benchmark COMEX Gold (100 oz) closes at 4,035.5 with a daily volume of 352,500. In notional terms, the transaction value is $142.2 billion, equivalent to 1,096.4 tons of gold.
•	The lead contract GOZ5 for E-Mini Gold (50 oz) closes at 4,036 with a volume of 9,555. Notional value is $1.9 billion, equivalent to 14.9 tons of gold.
•	The lead contract MGCZ5 for Micro Gold (10 oz) closes at 4,036.2 with a volume of 640,430. Notional value is $25.8 billion, equivalent to 199.2 tons of gold.
•	The lead contract 1OZZ5 for 1-ounce Gold closes at 4,036.75 with a volume of 61,886. 
Notional value is $250 million, equivalent to 1.9 tons of gold.
   
Here are the key reasons supporting the record high prices:
•	Economic Uncertainty: Widespread concern about a potential U.S. recession and a shifting global economic order fueled demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. 
•	Lower Interest Rates: Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive compared to bonds and other investments. 
•	Geopolitical Instability: A combination of global events, including a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and heightened trade tensions, contributed to a general sense of unease, driving investors to gold. 
•	Central Bank Purchases: Record buying by central banks has also supported the price of gold.
•	Weak Dollar: The Dollar Index is at 99.336, down 8.8% year-to-date. Weak dollar is bullish for all commodities. Global investors pay less to buy gold when they convert local currency into dollar.
What is so significant about the current gold rally?
•	The 2025 surge in gold prices has outpaced major past rallies, including those during the 2007-09 recession and the pandemic. 
•	The move above $4,000 an ounce marks a historic moment, signifying a significant rush into alternative assets amid economic fears. 
On April 28th, I published “The Gold-Silver Ratio Explained” on TradingView. At the time, the Ratio was 100 with gold at $3,330 and silver at $33.0.
  
On October 10th, spot gold is quoted at $4,035.5 while silver is quoted at $47.52. This gives the Gold-Silver Ratio at 84.9. Judging from this important benchmark, gold prices are less extreme than six months ago, even though the price is $700 higher.
 Trade Setup with 1-Ounce Gold Futures 
Futures market shows bullish sentiment on gold. CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of September 23rd, COMEX gold futures ( CSE:GC ) have total open interest (OI) of 528,789 contracts.
•	“Managed Money” holds 198,826 Long contracts, 38,277 Short contracts, and 32,516 contracts at spread positions.
•	The long/short ratio of 5.2-to-1 shows that “Smart Money” is very bullish on gold.
Traders who share the bullish view could explore the new 1-ounce gold futures ($1OZ). This pocket-size product is a new way to trade in the gold market, representing just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of a Gold (GC) futures contract, making it accessible to all gold traders.
 
With an initial margin of just $180, traders could gain full exposure to 1 ounce of gold. As of October 11th, the February 2026 contract (1OZG6) is quoted at 4066.75.
Hypothetically, if gold prices move up by 5%, a long futures position would more than double in value (= (4066.75*0.05) / 180 = 113%). This futures contract has a built-in leverage of 22.6:1. 
For comparison, owning physical gold has a return of just 5% if gold prices go up by 5%.
The risk of buying gold futures is falling gold prices. Traders could set up a stoploss on their buy order.  For illustration, a stoploss at 3,900 would set the maximum loss at $166.75 (= 4066.75–3900). This is below the $180 initial margin.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs  www.tradingview.com
Gold Investors May Be in It for the Long Haul  If one wishes to be the ultimate bull on gold and identify a path higher for it, then one bullish outcome could be a rise to a range of $4,400 to $4,680. Since October 2023, gold has advanced in a stair-step-like manner, with periods of strong gains followed by phases of consolidation. On each of those occasions, gold has reached the 1.272% or 1.618% Fibonacci extension of the previous trend before consolidating.
It may not turn out to be the case this time, but we should soon find out as gold approaches the 100% extension at $4,160. If gold were to surpass that Fibonacci extension level, it could then rise towards those higher prices previously mentioned.
  
Gold, however, is overbought and has been since reaching $3,800, which means it is long overdue for a period of consolidation. While there may still be a path higher for gold, it does not come without significant risk. The metal is currently trading above its upper Bollinger Band and has a relative strength index (RSI) of 86.7.
  
The last time gold’s RSI was this high on the daily chart was in July 2020, which was followed by a long and drawn-out consolidation phase lasting until March 2024, during which the price fell from around $2,000 to $1,600 at its lowest point.
For gold investors, the message at this stage may be that while gold still has the potential to move higher, one may need to be prepared to hold on to the precious metal for some time to come, as the risk now appears to be greater than the potential reward.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. 
 Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. 
GC 10/10The T.A paints the picture.
INV. levels. are resistance unless solid lines.
FS / BS levels are support unless solid lines
1x dotted are tested
2x dotted. are Origin levels where Trends originate from; a vertices in the fractals of time.
Each level is color coded to the timeframe the candle was found on.
Strength favors the higher timeframes
Pink = month
grey = week
red = day
orange - 4hr
yellow - 1 hr
15min - blue
5min - green
Gold – Sitting on 8HR FVG Support Before CPI | Patience RequiredPrice rejected before taking yesterday’s high and is now sitting right on top of the 8HR FVG. We’ve finally got a clean retrace into structure after a week of impulsive bullish movement.
I’m watching how price behaves here going into NY session + CPI release — this zone could be where the next leg starts if buyers step in.
📍 Key Levels:
4,077 → Liquidity above previous high
4,020 → Bullish confirmation zone
3,960 → Deep test into FVG
If the market holds above 3,980 and shows strength, I’m expecting continuation toward 4,060–4,100+.
If it fails and closes under 3,960, we could see a deeper correction first.
⚖️ Staying patient — news will likely reveal the real intent.
— Woodz | #NOFOMO
Gold 4h Potential Short Confluence🔱 Just wanted to highlight this confluence 🔱
The yellow L-MLH and white U-MLH are lining up to form a potential short setup.
Today’s selling pressure is also giving an early warning signal.
If we open and close below the white U-MLH, we’ll likely retest it before any major drop.
Shorting this move will require a decent stop, given the inherent volatility. So maybe a play with an Options Strategy would be a more secure way.
Let’s see if the party finally takes a breather.
Gold Over $4K: Blow-Off Top or Launchpad Higher?Gold (GC1!) has been one of the most beautifully trending markets over the past two years — a textbook example of structure, momentum, and clean technical behaviour. We’ve been following it closely since February 2024, and every markup and re-accumulation phase has respected the 5 / 10 / 20 / 50 MA stack perfectly.
Now, price has reached the key $4 000 zone after yet another powerful rally leg. The big question: are we seeing a blow-off top forming, or is this simply another launch pad before the next expansion higher?
Personally, I think we might need a flush toward the 50 MA (orange) to reset momentum and shake out late buyers before any real continuation. That said, I won’t even think about shorts unless the Daily closes below the 20 MA — the trend is still firmly bullish until proven otherwise.
Let’s be honest though… this is where everyone suddenly becomes a top-caller, trying to outsmart a two-year uptrend 🤦♂️. We just keep it simple — follow the chart, trust the EMAs, and stay bullish until the structure actually breaks down.
Key points:
• Daily trend remains bullish with EMAs cleanly stacked.
• A healthy pullback toward the 50 MA could reset momentum.
• Short bias only valid after a Daily close below the 20 MA.
• Holding above 20 ma keeps continuation structure intact.
• Bias remains bullish until proven otherwise.
Questions for you:
	1.	Do you think this is the final blow-off or just another launch pad before 5K?
	2.	How far do you see this pullback going — 20 EMA bounce or full flush to the 50 EMA?
	3.	Are you still riding the trend, or are you one of the many trying to call the top too early?
Gold Futures – Pre-Killzone WatchPrice spent all of yesterday grinding bullish with strong impulsive legs, but things are finally slowing down near the highs. We’re now seeing signs that the market might be ready for a pullback or liquidity grab before deciding its next leg.
Current Range: 4,005 (D-L) → 4,081 (D-H)
Bias: Bullish overall, but watching for short-term weakness.
Gameplan:
Look for a possible sweep above 4,081 during London or NY Killzone.
If we get a sharp rejection or displacement after that sweep, I’ll be interested in a sell setup targeting the 4,046–4,005 range.
If price holds above 4,046 and forms clean FVGs, continuation to 4,100+ stays on the table.
This is the pause before the next move. No reason to front-run it — I’ll let the killzone reveal where the liquidity really wants to go.
💭 Patience pays — wait for the sweep and shift.
— Woodz | #NOFOMO
Gold strong bullish momentumHere we can see my channel projection lines and how the bullish momentum just keep on getting stronger and stronger. Now here is the question. Will the bulls pick up more momentum pushing the price even higher to the projected channel line?
Love to hear your opinion, leave a reply.
#Gold
Gold   silver   dxyThe date is 10 1825    I'm concerned about the DXY and what it might mean    and yet the market is very bullish for gold and silver and I would be thinking of reducing a position or getting out of a pattern that looks like gold or silver because I think they're overbought and that's an invitation for smart money to short the market to take out the breakout traders moving to new highs.
Has Gold Reached Its Fullest Potential?Has gold reached its fullest potential? It depends on the US dollar.
As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up. 
i) From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up.
ii) From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up.
iii) And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up.
With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential.   
Mirco Gold Futures and Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
•             What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
•             Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold...Officially hit my $4k target, though I'm already out of it.
Looks like a 3 drive pattern, equal length with each starting when MFI gets oversold on my 3 hr chart.  If it is, it "should" drop back to $3800 level.  I don't recommend shorting it though, gold never seems to drop, it just goes sideways instead.
If it does pull back, I'm going back in for the blow off top, lol.
Gold Cant stop...Wont Stop....Price continues pressing into new highs with no meaningful pullback, showing strong safe-haven momentum amid rising geopolitical tension.
Watching for signs of exhaustion near current highs — ideally a liquidity sweep above the Daily High (DH) before any structural shift confirms.
No rush to fade strength. Waiting for:
A clean displacement break below intraday structure.
Retest of an unmitigated FVG or imbalance for potential short.
Until then, bullish continuation remains in control.
Bias: Neutral → Bullish (waiting for confirmation)
Setup on Watch: Liquidity Sweep + SSB (Shift in Structure Break)
Can it happen?Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.






















