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USD Index (USX) / US Dollar

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Just a bounce off or a real trend reversal?DXY sits on a major support zone. Price often delivers a reflex bounce at strong levels before continuing the prevailing trend, so a quick pop isn’t proof of a new bull run. DXY is closely linked to US real yields (10y TIPS): if real yields roll over as the Fed eases, USD strength likely fades; if real yields stay firm, a durable reversal is more plausible. This post is for informational/educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. I may hold positions related to the instruments mentioned.
TVC:DXY
by AustrianTradingMachine
DXY UPDATE FOR LONG as we forecast a long term this an update The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.22% and posted a 5-week high. The dollar has carryover support from Monday following the EU-US trade deal that is seen as favoring the US. Also, expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of Wednesday's 2-day FOMC meeting are supportive of the dollar. The dollar extended its gains after the US Jun advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly shrank, a supportive factor for Q2 GDP, and after July consumer confidence rose more than expected.
TVC:DXYLong
by isaac886
US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis – 1H TimeframeUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis – 1H Timeframe This chart shows the **US Dollar Index (DXY)** with key price zones, trendlines, and EMA indicators. Here's a detailed analysis: **Key Observations:** * **Price:** Currently trading near **98.41** * **EMAs:** * **EMA 7** = 98.373 (short-term trend) * **EMA 21** = 98.356 (medium-term trend) * **Trendline:** Uptrend line still intact, acting as dynamic support * **Volume:** Steady, no strong breakout yet * **Support Zones:** 98.20 – 98.35 * **Price Structure:** Consolidating above support and EMAs after a pullback from highs **Bullish Scenario** * If price **holds above EMAs and the green support zone (98.20–98.35)** * **Breakout above 98.50** would confirm strength * Targets: → **98.70** → **99.00+** if trendline support continues to hold * EMAs are aligned bullishly (7 above 21) – good sign for continued upward trend **Bearish Scenario** * If price **breaks below 98.20 and closes under the trendline** * Watch for rejection near 98.50 followed by strong red candle * Downside targets: → **97.80** → **97.60** * A breakdown below the ascending trendline = trend shift confirmation **Conclusion** * **Bias:** Bullish as long as DXY stays above 98.20 and trendline * **Invalidation:** A break and close below 98.20 + trendline = bearish shift
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Harry_Megat
US Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart Analysis **Current Trend:** Bearish Price trades below EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud, and within a bearish channel. #**Bearish Scenario (Favorable)** * **Conditions:** * Price remains below EMA 7 & 21 * Stays under Ichimoku Cloud and 96.812 resistance (R1) * Lower lows forming, bearish momentum increasing * **Confirmation:** Break below **96.37 (blue zone)** * **Target:** * TP1: 96.00 * TP2: 95.60 (next weak support) **Bullish Scenario (Reversal)** * **Conditions:** * Price must break above **96.81 (EMA 7 + resistance)** * Break above **R1 → 96.90**, and then above **R2 → 97.14–97.19** * Bullish candles close above the Ichimoku cloud * **Confirmation:** Break and retest of **97.20** * **Target:** * TP1: 97.39 * TP2: 97.58 (key structure) * TP3: 98.00 (major resistance) **Bias:** Bearish unless DXY breaks above **97.20** with strong volume and bullish structure.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Harry_Megat
DXY Chart Outlook: Trend, Support, and Price Objectives**DXY Chart Outlook: Trend, Support, and Price Objectives (Reworded Analysis)** **Trend Overview** * The DXY chart reflects a **clear upward trajectory**, characterized by a sequence of **ascending highs and higher lows** — a classic sign of bullish momentum. * Currently, the price is **retracing toward the 50-day EMA**, which appears to be holding as **dynamic support**. * Two important **horizontal support zones** are marked: * **Support 1 (S1):** \~97.400 (aligned with EMA-50) * **Support 2 (S2):** \~96.800 (a deeper correction level) **Projected Price Zones** * **Near-Term Objective:** **98.800 to 99.000** * A rebound from the EMA or S1 could send price higher toward this zone, continuing the current bullish structure. * **Mid-Term Target:** **99.200 to 99.400** * If the price successfully clears the 99.000 resistance, further bullish continuation could aim for this intermediate target range. * **Extended Target:** **100.000+** * A sustained breakout beyond 99.400 could open the path toward **psychological resistance at 100.000**, possibly higher on strong momentum. **Support Zones to Watch** * **S1 (97.400):** This level coincides with the 50-day EMA and represents a **first line of defense**. * **S2 (96.800):** Should the price fall below S1, this secondary level could provide **stronger support** and potential bounce opportunity. **Risk Management** * Consider placing a **protective stop** just below S2 — around **96.500** — to safeguard against a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. **Summary** * The DXY remains **technically bullish**, with potential upside targets at **98.800**, **99.400**, and eventually **100.000+**. * Traders can monitor **S1 and S2** for potential entries or trend confirmation. * A **breakdown below 96.500** would invalidate the bullish setup and warrant caution.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Harry_Megat
DXY | Timeframe: 1MWith the breakout of the downtrend line drawn since 1985 and its breach in late 2014, the DXY index officially entered a relatively stable upward trend and is currently oscillating within a parallel channel. Although, on the monthly timeframe, it has recently touched the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect at least a rise toward the channel’s midline. However, if the lower support of the channel is broken, a static support around the approximate rate of 88 can be considered a notable support level. Should this support also fail, the long-term downtrend dating back to 1985 would be regarded as the most important support for the DXY index. Meanwhile, moving averages such as the MA50, MA100, and other longer-period moving averages serve as dynamic supports along the way. It is also worth mentioning that currently reaching the 120 level is considered an ideal target for the DXY index, and ultimately, it is by breaking this resistance zone that the index can reach its “Utopia”. --------- I will try to continuously update this analysis of the TOTAL symbol according to market changes and developments. Also, I welcome reading your critiques and comments, so don’t forget to leave a comment!
INDEX:DXYLong
by Neomway
DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%. The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper. The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets. In summary: It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances. It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. It influences many other interest rates in the economy. Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%. 1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K) Above Forecast: If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts. Below Forecast or Negative: If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators. 2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%) Above Forecast: A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support. Below Forecast or Negative: Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn. 3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%) Above Forecast: A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer. Below Forecast: If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand. Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed Summary: The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage. Key Features of the DXY: Currencies included and their weights: Euro (EUR) – 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6% British Pound (GBP) – 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6% It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value. The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of theses versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar. The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Surge Pressures Currency Market in Volatile Market WeekThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has held its rebound off historical support zones on both the price chart and the RSI indicator throughout July. The monthly RSI is bouncing off a support line extending between the troughs of 2008 and 2020. Meanwhile, price action is rebounding from a support trendline that connects the lows of 2008, 2014, and 2021, within the 96–94 zone. Bearish Scenario: A solid close below this support zone may confirm a long-term bearish signal, potentially pushing the index toward the 94 and 90 levels. Bullish Scenario: A confident move above 100 and 103 could signal a reversal in the currency market, potentially leading the DXY back toward the mid-range of the long-standing channel between 105 and 107, originating from the 2008 lows. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – July 30, 2025 | 15-Min Chart1. **Range-Bound Structure** DXY is consolidating between 98.588 support and 99.134 resistance. The 98.68–98.74 zone has acted as demand, but repeated retests show weakening buyer interest. 2. **Failed Breakouts** Multiple rejections at 99.134 indicate it's a trap zone where sellers absorb buy-side pressure. 3. **Bearish Momentum Signs** Lower highs and wicks into resistance with weak closes suggest distribution. Momentum likely shows bearish divergence. 4. **Critical Levels** * **Support:** 98.588 — a break below this opens downside potential. * **Resistance:** 99.134 — bulls need a strong breakout above this for continuation to 99.41+. Summary: Sellers dominate below 99.134. If 98.588 breaks, expect bearish continuation. Only a confirmed breakout above 99.134 shifts bias bullish.
TVC:DXY
by TheWallstreetCapital
DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%. The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper. The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets. In summary: It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances. It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. It influences many other interest rates in the economy. Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%. 1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K) Above Forecast: If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts. Below Forecast or Negative: If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators. 2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%) Above Forecast: A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support. Below Forecast or Negative: Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn. 3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%) Above Forecast: A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer. Below Forecast: If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand. Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed Summary: The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage. Key Features of the DXY: Currencies included and their weights: Euro (EUR) – 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6% British Pound (GBP) – 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6% It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value. The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of these currencies versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar. The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold), and financial markets. It is calculated as a geometric mean of the exchange rates weighted by each currency's significance in U.S. trade. #DXY In essence, the DXY is a crucial tool to assess how the U.S. dollar is performing against its major trade partners’ currencies, helping market participants make informed decisions in foreign exchange and broader financial markets.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 99.24 1st Support: 98.27 1st Resistance: 99.97 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DXY warning of an incoming bear market?The DXY is into major multifactor support on the weekly timeframe. We have 2 weekly trendlines intersecting right at the 97.00 level. The first connects the highs from March 2020 through the lows of July 2023 to where we are now. The second is much larger and goes all the way back to 2007, connecting the lows from 2007, 2011 and 2021. We could see a major bounce here for months and some companies have reported during earnings that the sole reason for their improved earnings was due to weakness in the dollar. What happens to earnings when the DXY goes back into bull mode???? Time will tell...
TVC:DXYLong
by bradc1984
Interesting few days ahead... USD pairs approaching key levelsDXY is finishing a HTF consolidation and is approaching medium-term key areas. Other USD pairs are also in areas where they could aggressively turn around. EURUSD just finished a H4 3-touch continuation flag and is starting to stall on the 3rd touch, suggesting indecision in the markets. Considering the news events in the next 3 days, starting today with USD advanced GDP data, we could see volatility kicking in on these key levels. We do need a catalyst to push price into a larger directional move, and we are prime positioned for the next leg. Technically, a breakout in both directions would make sense in these areas. Time to set alarms and be vigilant but not jump into trades too early, considering NFP on Friday as well. *** **** **** 📈 Simplified Trading Rules: > Follow a Valid Sequence > Wait for Continuation > Confirm Entry (valid candlestick pattern) > Know When to Exit (SL placement) Remember, technical analysis is subjective; develop your own approach. I use this format primarily to hold myself accountable and to share my personal market views. The pairs I publish here are usually discussed in detail in my Weekly Forex Forecast (WFF) and are now showing further developments worth mentioning. ⚠ Ensure you have your own risk management in place and always stick to your trading plan. *** **** ****
TVC:DXYShort
by kalganid