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BITCOIN VS INTEREST RATESBitcoin vs Interest rates (current rates 0-0.25%) year 2022 To many analysis were seeing around but they forget whos the one controls everything, remember when interest rates is rising stocks crypto start to go in parabolic moves and later it will go to blown off scenario were the crash begging's. for bitcoin we can compare the recent move to 2017 bullrun were bitcoin still pushing high even the interest rates is rising from 0.25% to 0.50% up to 1.5%, this 2022 rates was 0.25% and next rates will be 0.50% on march 16 according to recent meeting, i think bitcoin can still push higher above $100k along with rising rates, data from 2017 show clearly that rising rates can push the market to last bullrun and once rates reach 1.5% stocks and crypto start to go bearish, for now we should look at the daily range of bitcoin and telling us that were at wave 4 weekly and wave c daily and it was confirm when bitcoin bounce from $32k, the recent resistance to $45k was expected and i think it could retest the $39k-$49k again before breaking the $50k and bull run will start since $45k is the 1st impulse wave 1 of wave5 weekly and $39k $40k is impulse wave 2 of wave5 weekly, next move is wave 3 were bulls will start to go crazy again, the key here is we should see a strong bounce from $40k, (disclaimer this wave analysis can be invalid since crypto is a different wolrd it can go anywhere he wants, but 100% rates vs btc is correct) i hope my analysis helps you were bitcoins wants go and interest rates helps or not help the stocks and crypto market. THANK YOU
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by WolvesOkami
Market reaction on FED's change in monetary policy is irrationalThe stock and crypto market reactions on for some time known FED's change in monetary policy is an emotional overreaction driven by fear. As you can see from the graph that compares Nasdaq's Index development over the last years with US State Interest rates there was a period from 2015 to 2019 with climbing interest rates and climbing NDQ as well. Directly before the global start of Corona pandemic the US Interest Rate was 1.75%. Currently, the markets expect an up to four times increase of some 0.25% per step in 2022, perhaps resulting in 1.25% at the end of the trading year - so what are we in fear of ??? What changed at Nasdaq and Crypto during the Corona Years 2020 and 2021 is the steepness of the price increase - but is this increase of Tech and Crypto really mainly driven by a very low level of interest rates? Surely not, as we have already seen such low interest rates in the period of 2008/9 to 2015 during the global financial crisis and there was not such increase in the steepness of price development. Moreover, innovative tech companies which calculate with double digit sales increase per year can not be severely damaged by an interest rate increase of some 1%. To my mind, what really changed in 2020 and 2021 and boostered Tech Stocks and Crypto similarly, is a new awareness of the relevance of the global digital social and business model. As never before, Corona let us understand that digital and technical innovations are of systemic importance to jointly master the challenges of the future and Crypto's Blockchains may form a catalytic and secure fundament to trade and socially connect people peer to peer all over the world. Yours Edgar Neufeld Germany
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by ENeufeld
The Meme ReversionThe general idea is that the Fed let inflation get out of control because of the meme amounts of quantitative easing (QE). This amount of QE would not have been a problem if the Stock Market Capitalization (SMC) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Buffet Indicator, wasn’t already at a meme incline prior to the pandemic, now over x2. If you rewind 3 weeks ago I posted about using the Bond Yield Spread for 30y-20y to predict the FOMC (Hawkish or Dovish). The inversion of 30y-20y was riding a more dovish fed outlook to restoring interest rate hikes for 2022. Prior to Dec 15 FOMC, we saw a sharp correction in the 30y-20y yield spread as an indication that the FED would take a hawkish outlook to 2022. What it indicates is that sentiment in long-term bond yields shifted positive meaning the bond market was confident that interest rates would return in the new year. The problem is the fed dropped anchor on its policy for rate changes in 2022 as inflation is out of control ( USIRYY ) and as unemployment rates decrease ( UNRATE ) we will find ourselves diving towards inversion in the yield curve indicating the start of a recession (Phillips curve). This tells us that we are at or near the top of the market in early 2022 of a very overbought stock market and would indicate the largest correction in recent history that I will refer to going forward as The Meme Reversion . Strap In. 2022 is going to be more MEME X2 inverted!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by SPYvsGME