NDQ100 trade ideas
NSDQ100 awaits Fed Powwell's tone at Jackson Hole Key Drivers
Powell @ Jackson Hole (10am EST):
July FOMC was hawkish on labour, but payroll revisions weaker since → tone today could soften.
Market focus: whether Powell leans on labour weakness vs still-solid inflation & activity.
Outcome = pivotal for Fed cut expectations and tech valuations.
Macro/Policy Noise:
Halts & policy risks: immigration and visa restrictions could tighten labour supply, indirectly feeding wage/inflation concerns. NIH funding cuts add fiscal uncertainty.
Geopolitical chip tension: Nvidia halting H20 AI chip production under Beijing pressure raises supply-chain risk. Negative for semi names in the NASDAQ-100 (NVDA, AMD, AVGO).
US stance on chipmakers: No forced equity stakes → removes one overhang, but policy risk still high.
NASDAQ-100 Implications
Powell dovish → likely risk-on, tech rally (rate-sensitive growth).
Powell hawkish / inflation-first → risk-off, higher yields weigh on big tech multiples.
Chip news: Nvidia headline is a near-term drag; could spill over to the semiconductor complex (SOX index).
Net read:
Short-term cautious bias into Powell due to Nvidia headline + policy noise.
Direction after 10am EST depends on Fed tone—dovish shift = upside reversal, hawkish = further pressure on NASDAQ-100.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 23480
Resistance Level 2: 23720
Resistance Level 3: 23950
Support Level 1: 23100
Support Level 2: 22985
Support Level 3: 22740
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Nasdaq to 24k!!!I remain constructive on the NASDAQ as we head into the second half of the year. Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole reinforced that rate cuts are coming, though they will be measured rather than front-loaded. This approach reflects confidence in the economy’s resilience while ensuring inflation continues to trend lower.
Historically, years ending in 5 have shown strong equity market performance under the decennial theory. Combined with improving liquidity conditions and a supportive policy backdrop, the setup favors continued strength in growth and technology-driven sectors.
From a technical perspective, the NASDAQ has already established a hard low near the 22,900 level, which now serves as a strong support zone. Since then, the index has been consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the bullish structure. This price action confirms that buyers remain in control and strengthens the case for continued momentum in the months ahead.
In my view, these factors create a durable foundation for the NASDAQ to remain bullish, with momentum likely to build as markets look ahead to a more accommodative environment.
NAS100: BUY OPPORTUNITY AT H4 ORDERBLOCKHello traders Here's my point of view about PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
TECHNICALLY:
Price this week was very bullish until today FRIDAY. AS you can see price reached the psychological area of 23.000. Currently, price action seems to reject and print pin bars at the H4 ORDERBLOCK. This is a make-or-break area.
As long as we stay ABOVE 23 000 we can consider to look for BUY entries but only if fundamentals, confluences & confirmations. Otherwise, the area will be completely invalidated
I personally took a quick buy at the 23 080 AREA.
FUNDAMENTALLY:
All eyes on TRUMP speech today as well as Jackson Hole Symposium
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck! MAKE SURE TO STAY STRICT WITH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
NAS100 Trade Set Up Aug 22 2025www.tradingview.com
FX:NAS100
Nas100 Trade Up: price has made HH/HL on the 1h and has closed above PDL in london session so if price tests 1h FVG and respects it, i will look for buys to PDH but if price fails to close above HH and inverts 1h FVG i will look for sells down to HL
NAS100 - Potential TargetsDear Friends in Trading,
Fundamental:
Powell's Jackson Hole Speech today 30mins after NYSE open.
Anything is possible
Pattern = Bearish Pennant:
This pattern indicates a "SHORT".
Watch price reaction at the FVG and PIVOT (Dark Blue).
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
USNAS100 Update | Fed Pressure Keeps Market Under Bearish BiasUSNAS100 – Overview
Tech fright calms but Fed pressure grows
U.S. tech stocks appear to have stabilized after two sessions of sharp declines, but uncertainty persists as the Treasury market reacts to the latest Federal Reserve developments ahead of the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming.
Technical Outlook
USNAS100 maintains a bearish setup while below 23,295.
A break and sustained close above this level would signal a potential bullish reversal.
📍 Key Levels
Pivot: 23,295
Support: 23,165 – 23,045 – 22,850
Resistance: 23,430 – 23,540 – 23,690
previous idea:
How to determine if the Fed will change target interest rates?In this video, I explain the mechanism of the Fed target interest rates and how to determine if the Fed will cut the target interest rates in September 2025 (or any other FOMC). I also talk about the Overnight Reverse Repo balance sheet and the draining of the balance from a high of 2.55T on 30th Dec 2022 to just 25B as of 21st Aug 2025. I hypothesize a scenario from now till the September FOMC:
1. The Overnight Reverse Repo is completely emptied, meaning the stealth liquidity is gone.
2. The Equity Markets suffers a sharp fall (even a crash).
3. Funds rotate into US treasuries, causing yield to fall.
4. Fed cuts target interest rates without having to monetize the debts.
The most important key takeaway in this video is to understand that in order to know if the Fed will do anything is to see the 3month government bond yield. All the other information are supplementary and provide us information to paint a narrative on how the market will move in the coming weeks.
As aways, keep your risks tight, and Good Luck!
NASDAQ Technicals
NASDAQ (NAS100) Technical Analysis
Based on the 4 hour chart, NASDAQ (NAS100) is currently showing range bound price action, indicating a period of consolidation after a recent downtrend. This price behavior suggests a tug of war between bulls and bears, with neither side able to decisively break through key support or resistance levels.
Key Levels and Price Zones
The market is trading within a defined range. The key support zone is identified around 23,055 to 22,958. This is a critical area, as a clean break below it would signal a continuation of the previous bearish trend. The primary resistance zone is located between 23,309 and 23,418. This zone must be broken and held for a potential bullish reversal to be considered.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
* Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to resume, the price needs to break above the 23,418 resistance level. A confirmed breakout with a subsequent retest of this level as support could open the door for a move towards the higher resistance at 23,736. Traders should watch for a strong bullish candle closing above this zone and an increase in buying volume to confirm the breakout.
* Bearish Scenario: The bearish outlook remains intact as long as the price stays below the resistance zone. A break below the support zone around 22,958 would be a significant bearish signal. This could lead to a further drop toward the lower range's support at 22,690. A strong bearish candle closing below the support zone would provide confirmation.
Risk Management and Final Thoughts
Given the current consolidation, traders should be cautious about initiating new positions without clear confirmation. The most prudent approach is to wait for a definitive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support. Trading within the range can be highly volatile and is generally considered higher risk. Placing stop loss orders outside of the key support and resistance zones is crucial to manage potential risks effectively. The current technical screenshot of NAS100 is one of indecision, and a significant move is likely on the horizon once one of the boundaries is breached.
NAS100 Potential Short Setup Liquidity grab cleared, followed by a break of structure to the downside and a fair value gap (FVG) that aligns perfectly with my 71% Fibonacci retracement - this is very good setup for me. I’ve set a sell limit at 23,513, with a stop loss at the 100% Fibonacci level and take profit at the 0% level, giving a fixed risk-to-reward ratio of 2.45. FX:NAS100
Nasdaq (US100) Analysis: Navigating a Critical Support ZoneThe Nasdaq (US100) is currently at a pivotal point, trading just above a key support zone. A comprehensive analysis of the daily chart, as depicted in the screenshot, reveals several critical factors that could influence its short term trajectory.
Key Observations and Analysis
1. Price Action and Support Zone:
The Nasdaq has recently experienced a significant pullback from its recent highs, testing a critical support area. This zone, highlighted in the chart between approximately 22,800 and 23,000, is where buyers have previously stepped in, preventing further declines. The price has been consolidating within this range for several trading sessions, forming a potential "bottoming" pattern. The current price of 23,129.4, as shown, is hovering just above this level. This indicates a fierce battle between bulls and bears. A decisive break below this support would likely trigger further selling pressure, potentially targeting the next major support level around 22,000.
Conversely, a successful defense of this zone could provide the necessary foundation for a bullish reversal.
2. Candle Analysis (Bearish and Bullish Signals):
The chart shows a mix of bearish and bullish candlestick patterns.
* Bearish Candles: Several long red candles indicate strong selling pressure, particularly during the initial decline from the highs. These candles show that sellers were in control, pushing prices down aggressively.
* Bullish Candles: The appearance of smaller green candles within the support zone suggests that buyers are starting to show interest. These candles represent a slowing of the selling momentum and an increase in buying activity. The presence of a "hammer" or "doji"-like candle near the bottom of the range would be a bullish signal, indicating that sellers are losing control and a potential reversal is on the horizon.
3. Volume Analysis (Not Visible in Chart, but Crucial):
For a complete analysis, it is essential to consider volume.
* Declining Volume on the Pullback: If the recent decline occurred on declining volume, it would suggest that the selling pressure is weakening.
* Increasing Volume at Support: An increase in volume as the price tests the support zone would be a strong indicator of institutional buying. This would suggest that large players are accumulating positions at this level, providing a solid foundation for a potential rally.
Potential Scenarios and Future Outlook
Based on the current technical setup, two primary scenarios could unfold:
1. Bullish Reversal:
If the Nasdaq successfully holds the 22,800 - 23,000 support zone and breaks above the resistance of the current consolidation range, it would signal a potential return to its uptrend. The next key resistance level to watch would be around 23,750, a level where sellers previously entered the market. A break above this would likely clear the way for a test of the previous highs.
2. Bearish Continuation:
A decisive daily close below the 22,800 support level would be a major bearish signal. This would invalidate the current consolidation and could lead to a rapid move towards the next significant support level around 22,000. Traders would need to be cautious and consider a potential downside move in this scenario.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq (US100) is at a critical juncture. The price action within the 22,800 - 23,000 support zone will be the key to determining its next major move. A successful defense of this area could pave the way for a strong rebound, while a breach would likely signal a continuation of the downtrend. Traders should monitor price action and volume closely for confirmation of either scenario before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ):The index shows a long-term bullish trend (daily timeframe), while the short-term trend on the hourly chart is bearish. Currently, the price is trading near 23,200.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 23,160 and holds, it may head toward 23,000, and with continued selling pressure, it could extend to 22,800.
🔺 Bullish Scenario (Most Likely):
If buying momentum appears and the price manages to break and hold above 23,350, this could support further upside toward 23,500, and strong bullish continuation may open the way to test 23,680.
NAS100 falls slightly but conditions are still bullish!NAS100 climbed in a steep ascending trend and my expectation is for a continuation, with an upside target at around 24,000.
It is still clearly moving inside the channel, as predicted previously in my idea:
At 24.000 is where it can become a decision point, where price might correct again, or it pushes more and that’s when we might see the move start to gain more momentum.
But if price breaks below the trendline with conviction, it would invalidate the bullish scenario, suggesting that the uptrend may pause or could even reverse short-term.
“How I Trade NAS100 with 4H Order Flow + 15M Precision Entry”Here’s my step-by-step process for catching high probability NAS100 setups 👇
1️⃣ Direction from 4H Order Flow
– I only look for trades in the direction of the 4H structure.
– My key levels are 4H OBs and 4H FVGs.
2️⃣ Patience at the Key Level
– No random trades. I wait until price reacts to one of my 4H levels.
3️⃣ 15M Entry Model (MSS + IFVG)
– Once price reacts, I refine entry on the 15M chart using MSS (Market Structure Shift) + IFVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap).
– This keeps risk tight and entries precise.
4️⃣ Risk Management
– I always place stop loss at the invalidation point.
– Targeting a minimum of 1:2 Risk to Reward.
⚡ The edge is simple: Only trade what pays me. Nothing else.
Why Markets Never Move in a Straight LineHello,
Financial markets, by their very nature, do not move in a straight line. Prices fluctuate, trends develop, and corrections occur along the way. While it is tempting to expect that an upward rally will continue indefinitely, the reality is that markets require pauses and pullbacks to remain healthy. As shown in the chart above markets will always pull back (taking breathers as they move up).
One of the primary reasons markets correct is profit-taking. Early investors, who entered positions at lower prices, often choose to lock in gains once prices rise to attractive levels. Their selling creates temporary downward pressure, leading to corrections. This cycle of entry, accumulation, and profit-taking is not a sign of weakness, but rather a natural rhythm of market activity.
Corrections also serve a vital purpose: they prevent markets from overheating. Extended rallies without pauses often create unsustainable valuations, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal. By allowing prices to retrace, corrections provide opportunities for new investors to enter at fairer levels and for existing investors to add to their positions more strategically.
History consistently shows that long-term market growth is built on a series of advances punctuated by corrections. Even in strong bull markets, prices rarely move in a linear fashion. Instead, they climb higher through a stair-step pattern—rising, correcting, consolidating, and then resuming their upward momentum.
For investors, this means corrections should not always be viewed with fear. Instead, they can be seen as opportunities. As Warren Buffett often reminds us, the key is not to follow the crowd into overbought territory but to wait patiently for value.
Recognizing that they cannot move in a straight line equips investors with patience and perspective—two of the most valuable traits in successful investing.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.