ETH Bulls Eye $4,300 – Can This Rally Hold?ETH has spent the last week unwinding a down-leg from the upper supply band around 4,793.19 (top red dashed line). That decline stalled and based above the major demand shelf marked by the repeated green dashed line at 4,065.95. Notice how the blue B tags cluster along that shelf on Aug-18–21 and again on the latest pullback—each test was absorbed, then followed by impulsive buying. That’s the anchor of the bullish case: buyers have repeatedly defended 4,065.95, converting it into a primary swing floor.
From that base, price printed a higher low on Aug-21 and then a bullish impulse that reclaimed the prior breakdown area around 4,319.72–4,331.63 (mid red dashed band). The candle structure after the reclaim is constructive: shallow pullbacks, overlapping bodies, and no immediate rejection wicks at the reclaimed band. On this timeframe, that looks like a change of character from distribution to accumulation.
Above, you’ve got a series of upside reference points that stack neatly as targets. The first is the mid-range pivot at 4,375.04, which lines up with the center of the short red dashed channel and where sellers showed up previously (red S tags). If bulls chew through that, the path opens toward the unfilled pocket into 4,793.19 (top band, shown twice on the scale). The long box drawn on your chart reflects a similar idea: long from just above the reclaim, risk tucked below the demand shelf, and reward mapped into the prior supply.
Downside invalidation is straightforward. If ETH loses 4,065.95 on a closing basis, the next demand zones are well below at 3,737.06 and 3,357.14 (lower green dashed bands). Those levels only come into play if buyers capitulate at the shelf; until then, the market keeps rewarding dips into support.
A quick read of the swing map you’ve marked:
• Support cluster: 4,065.95 (primary), then 3,737.06, then 3,357.14.
• Reclaimed resistance/now pivot: 4,319.72–4,331.63.
• Interim target/resistance: 4,375.04.
• Major supply: 4,793.19.
The distribution of S tags is also telling. Earlier in the week they appeared aggressively near the mid-band; today, they’re thinner as price hugs the reclaimed zone, suggesting supply is being absorbed. Meanwhile, B tags continue to populate each higher low above 4,065.95, reinforcing that buyers are stepping in on dips rather than chasing highs—constructive behavior for a trend build.
Trading setup (from the chart)
• Bias: Long while price holds above 4,319.72–4,331.63 and especially 4,065.95.
• Entry zone: Retests of 4,319.72–4,331.63 or shallow dips into 4,312–4,325.
• Invalidation: 1H close below 4,065.95 (structure break).
• Targets: 4,375.04 (T1) → 4,431.63 (T2, top of the reclaimed band) → 4,793.19 (T3 major supply).
• Management: If T1 hits, trail to break-even; after a 1H close over 4,375.04, trail under the most recent higher low to stay with momentum.
Why this favors the bulls now
The market has established a sturdy floor at 4,065.95 with multiple successful defenses. Price has since reclaimed a prior breakdown region (4,319.72–4,331.63), which often flips to support on the next pullback and becomes a springboard. The lack of sharp rejection at that reclaim hints sellers are less aggressive than they were earlier in the week. With the next dense liquidity pocket at 4,375.04 and a vacuum above toward 4,793.19, the risk-reward of buying dips into the reclaimed band is attractive, provided risk is controlled under the shelf.
What would weaken this view
A failure to hold the next pullback into 4,319–4,332 followed by heavy selling back into the shelf would signal absorption is incomplete. If the shelf at 4,065.95 breaks on a closing basis, the bullish structure is invalidated and you’d expect a swift slide into 3,737.06 where the next meaningful demand sits. Until that happens, the sequence of higher lows above 4,065.95 is intact.
Tactical notes
Into 4,375.04, expect at least some reaction: that level capped several prior bounces and carries memory. If momentum is strong on approach (wide bodies, rising lows, no long upper wicks), partials at T1 and a tight trail can keep you in for 4,431.63 and 4,793.19. If momentum is weak (overlapping, small bodies), respect the level and get paid—don’t let a green trade turn red waiting for the extension.
Bottom line: as long as 4,065.95 holds and 4,319.72–4,331.63 acts as a launching pad on dips, the 1H structure supports a push first into 4,375.04 and—if buyers maintain pressure—an extension toward the 4,793.19 supply band.
