[SeoVereign] ETHEREUM BEARISH Outlook – September 30, 2025Hello everyone,
As of September 30, I would like to share my perspective on an Ethereum short position.
At present, I believe that Bitcoin, among others, still has one more downward wave remaining. Therefore, I am closely monitoring Bitcoin’s movement to capture the timing of its bearish reversal. Given that Bitcoin is likely to enter a declining phase, I am presenting a bearish scenario for Ethereum as well.
The basis of this idea is relatively clear: the entire structure is formed according to the classical ratio relationships of Elliott Wave Theory. All detailed ratios and projections have been drawn on the chart for your reference.
-Ratio Relationships
1. WAVE.C = WAVE.A * 1.618
2. WAVE.C = WAVE.A * 0.786
3. WAVE.C = WAVE.A * 1.272
The average target price for this decline is set around 4030 USDT.
As always, I will continue to share updates on position management based on this idea as the chart develops.
Thank you for reading.
ETHUSDT.3S trade ideas
Is ETH Bottomed?
Observations from ETH 4 Hour Charts – 2025-09-28
• ETH is currently in a downtrend
• Key Support is $3945, Key resistance is $4202
• Projected time for trend reversal is early November with the following two Consolidation Ranges (CR): $3945 and $4202 then break and hold above $4200 level.
Warning Sign (Further Dropping)
1). Cannot make new lower lows than $3821.02
Play Strategy
Swing Trader: Trade the ranges.
Long-term Investor: Buy in dip, 20% - 30% buy
ETH Salaam
Just see and share a possible scenario.
ETH could make a bull flag on daily time frame just below the weekly key level of 4,000.
Also in weekly time frame, ETH broke the large triangle to the upside and now retesting, it should build it there is any will to contribute rise!
Look at 4h candle with high volume make it like accumulation.
For now confirmation wait for daily and weekly close above 4k.
Break the bill flag, retest and go for tp1 and 2.
Have great trade
Consider risk management
Ethereum Price Hits 6-Week Low, But Here Lies An OpportunityAt press time, Ethereum is trading at $3,938, attempting to establish $3,910 as a support floor. This decline marks a crucial break below the $4,000 level, highlighting short-term weakness.
Given current signals, ETH may remain rangebound under $4,074 resistance until stronger bullish cues emerge. Market sentiment suggests consolidation rather than sharp recovery, keeping investors cautious.
However, if Ethereum flips $4,074 into support, a push toward $4,222 could follow. This move would require investor participation and sustained inflows to counter bearish momentum, ultimately invalidating the short-term negative outlook.
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ETH short trade Eth is very downtrend. Price is approaching to supply area with rsi indicating overbought level. We have a clean break of Structure which shows selling pressure is still active.
Moreover, with the multi time frame analysis, the price is below 200 ema which correlates with the 4hr, 1hr, 30m, and 15m, signaling a bearish bias.
$ETH Bearish Short-Term (September 24, 2025)BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Summary of Price Action:
Recent Movement: In the last 24 hours, ETH has dropped by about 1.12%, reaching around $4,133 - $4,175 this morning (UTC). This follows a slight recovery from lows near $4,092 on September 22, but it's now retesting support at $4,100 amid strong institutional redemptions. In your 2H chart, we see a series of red candles (bearish) indicating selling pressure, with trading volume increasing during the decline, confirming seller interest.
Key Levels:
Support: $4,100 (immediate level, tested today) and $4,000 - $4,092 as a stronger lower zone. If $4,100 breaks, we could see a drop toward $3,900.
Resistance: $4,180 - $4,200 (strong level with recent rejections). A break above $4,200 would signal recovery toward $4,300.
Volume and Liquidity: 24-hour volume is around $34.8 billion, with large liquidations tied to $141 million in spot ETF outflows over the past day, mostly from institutional longs. This shows smaller traders suffering from bearish pressure.
MACD Indicator Analysis :In the chart you sent, the MACD line (blue) is crossing below the signal line (orange), with the histogram turning more negative (red bars growing). This indicates a bearish divergence – the price is weakening while momentum is losing strength. MACD is below the zero line, confirming a weak short-term trend. RSI (at similar levels) is around 40-50, signaling lightly oversold, but still without strong buy signals.
Overall Trend:
Bearish Short-Term, Bullish Long-TermShort-Term (Today/Next Day): Bearish.
The price is consolidating in a bearish channel, with predictions for further downside toward $4,000 - $4,092 today or tomorrow, due to fear sentiment and pressure from ETF outflows. This matches your chart, where we see a potential descending triangle pattern (but still uncertain). Avoid immediate buys – wait for confirmation below $4,100 for shorts or above $4,180 for longs.
Ethereum $ETH similar price action to late JuneIt's not perfect look to see CRYPTOCAP:ETH losing the daily range
However, the current PA oddly reminds me of one from late June
RSI and AO are similar as well
The next few days will be interesting to see if they are trying to scare the paper hands before the generation run, or the generational run is getting postponed for now
Elliott Wave Ethereum / Fibonacci LevelWave C Progress:
Wave C has already reached 100% of Wave A.
Price is sitting near the 0.618 retracement of the previous 12345 impulse wave.
Subwave Count Inside Wave C:
I have counted Waves 1, 2, 3 inside C.
If this sub-count is correct, a Wave 4 bounce is expected soon in the 4028 – 3978 zone.
Critical Levels
4028 – 3978.18: Expected bounce range (Wave 4 inside C).
3978.18: Key level — breaking it opens the door to deeper downside.
If broken, the next supports are:
3812 (1.272 extension)
3708 (0.786 retracement of entire impulse)
Implications
If 3978 holds, ETH may stage a corrective bounce (Wave 4) before a possible Wave 5 inside C.
If 3978 fails, 3812 and 3708 are the next tipping points where market makers/pattern traders might start accumulating for a new 12345 impulse set.
Watch for a bounce between 4028–3978.
Lose 3978, and 3812/3708 become the big decision zones for the next move.
ETHUSDT 1D chart Review1. Trendline (orange) - was clearly pierced down → it is a signal of weakening the growth moment.
2. Horizers of support / resistance:
• Resistance: $ 4,604 (strong), above $ 4,960.
• Support: $ 4 150 (currently tested), next $ 3,958 and $ 3,696.
3. Price - currently ~ 4 169 $, i.e. right with the support of $ 4 150.
4. Candles - a strong inheritance candle after piercing the trend → weakness signal.
5. STOCHASTIC RSI - in the sales zone (<20), which may suggest the possibility of short -term reflection.
⸻
🔹 Application:
• Short date: possible reflection from $ 4 150 thanks to the sale (technical bounce).
• average date: If level $ 4 150 breaks and the candle closes below → the road opens to $ 3,958 and even $ 3,696.
• Only a return above $ 4 272 and a retest trendline from below would give a signal of buyers.
⸻
👉 To sum up: The market is in the critical zone - support $ 4 150 decides.
• Bull: keeping the defense of this level + reflection from the sale.
• Bear: loss $ 4 150 = greater correction in the direction of $ 3 950–3 700.
Ethereum: Bounce From Support, Eyes on $4,740Ethereum: Bounce From Support, Eyes on $4,740
Ethereum has bounced from the $4,050–$4,100 support zone.
If momentum continues, the next targets are $4,335 and $4,495, with the main resistance at $4,740.
As long as ETH holds above the support, the outlook is bullish with potential continuation upward.
We are still in an uptrend and the current downtrend may have been a moment of accumulation before ETH moves further. We may be in something more complex and growing still.
A drop below the support zone of 4050 could change the scenario.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
ETH Update📊 Current Setup
ETH’s just floatin’ in consolidation mode 😴. But zooming out on the higher TFs, the tide looks like it’s leanin’ toward an upward retrace 🌊.
🚦 Scenarios
👉 If this range breaks to the upside, first target’s hangin’ around $4400 🎯.
👉 If not, we’re stuck in chop city — no clean wave, no clean ride.
🧭 My Take
Patience = profits 💯. Sometimes the best move is lettin’ the chart tell its story instead of forcing a trade.
❓ What’s Your Read?
You think ETH’s ready to break out, or do we drift sideways longer? Drop your vibe below 👇
Ethereum Bounces From $4,161 Zone as Bulls Eye ReversalEthereum is holding firm at $4,161, a level reinforced by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and VWAP SR. Traders are watching for a bottoming structure to confirm a potential reversal.
Ethereum’s correction has carried price into one of its most technically significant zones. The $4,161 level is not only structurally important but also aligns with multiple technical tools, including the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and VWAP SR. This confluence makes the current area a strong candidate for reversal, though confirmation of a bottoming structure is still required on the lower timeframes.
Key Technical Points:
- $4,161 Support Zone: Anchored by Fibonacci and VWAP SR.
- Bottoming Structure Needed: Short-term reversal hinges on confirmation.
- Macro Trend Intact: ETH remains within long-term bullish trajectory.
Main Analysis:
Ethereum’s ability to respect confluence zones has been a hallmark of its market structure in recent months. The current bounce at $4,161 is another example, aligning with both the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the VWAP SR. These tools highlight the strength of this level, making it a technical battleground between bulls and bears.
While the bounce is encouraging, traders must wait for confirmation of a bottoming structure. Without a clear reversal signal — such as a double bottom, higher low, or bullish divergence — the risk of another leg down remains. However, given Ethereum’s placement in a macro bullish uptrend, the probability of this zone holding is strong.
Momentum indicators are also beginning to stabilize after recent corrective pressure. This suggests selling exhaustion, which often precedes accumulation phases before the next impulse. If bulls can sustain demand here, Ethereum could rotate back into resistance levels, continuing its larger uptrend.
Market structure context further supports the bullish case. ETH has consistently established higher lows, and another hold here would reinforce that pattern. Historical reactions from confluence zones like this have led to meaningful rallies, adding conviction to the current setup.
What to Expect in the Coming Price Action:
Ethereum is likely to confirm a reversal if a bottoming structure forms at $4,161. A bounce from this confluence could drive price back into resistance zones, while failure would open the door for deeper testing. Overall, the macro bullish structure remains intact.
ETH is Sinking Deep: Strong Downtrend and Big SELL Opportunity!Currently, ETH/USDT is under strong selling pressure due to both fundamental and technical factors . According to the latest news, over 2.6 million ETH (equivalent to about $11.7 billion ) is waiting to be withdrawn from the Ethereum network. When these ETH are released, it will create significant selling pressure, greatly affecting ETH's price in the short term. This could lead to investor anxiety and a potential sell-off, diminishing confidence in the market.
From a technical perspective , the chart shows a descending wedge, with lower highs and the current bottom becoming weak. It is highly likely that ETH will drop to the support level at $4,110 before making any new moves.
Given these factors, the appropriate trading strategy is to open a SELL order if the price cannot break through the resistance at $4,410 and falls below the support at $4,110. The Stop Loss should be placed at $4,450, just above the resistance, and Take Profit at $4,110.
In conclusion, ETH is facing a strong downtrend in the short term. Investors should keep an eye on the market and open a SELL order as the price continues to drop.
ETH Accumulation TrapdoorTrade Type: Controlled Bounce Long
Smart-money accumulation schematic, not trend breakout
3x Leverage (Max)
Valid potential 3–7 day tactical window
Pre-October macro bull run move
🔸 Entry Zone 1: $3,999 – $4,010
Must see all:
Only if 5m/15m BOS + FVG tap
LTF volume spike into structure
Bullish engulfing over previous 3 candles
Low skew in funding (<0.1%)
No macro weakness on BTC/ES
🔸 Entry Zone 2: $3,880 – $3,900
Must see all:
4H order block/FVG fill
LTF CHoCH + BOS
Wicking below $3,888 followed by fast recovery
No 4H close below $3,850
Entry 1 fills first, Entry 2 follows only if pullback comes.
Hard Stop: $3,800
Stop details: 1H/4H close + follow-through. Total exit. No re-entry without full reanalysis.
Soft Exit Protocols
At $3,850 sweep + spike: reduce 50%
$3,820 close without reversal: scale out 75%
HTF bearish engulfing near $3,800: full exit
TP Protocol
TP1: $4,130
Auto-sell 60% of position
TP2: $4,250
Close remainder or trail to $4,320
Optional TP3: $4,320 – $4,350
For breakout runners only
Trail SL under 1H swing low every $15 move
For Emergency Re-Entry
Scenario: ETH dumps to $2,950 – $3,050
Do not long immediately
Wait for:
Long lower wick rejection
New bullish FVG on 15m/1H
BOS back above $3,150
Then: Long with original TP plan, new SL = $2,850
Risk
Risk per Trade: 1.5% max account equity
Entry 1: 40% allocation
Entry 2: 60% allocation
NO compounding or pyramiding
Leverage Rules
Max 3x isolated
Must have 4H stop loss placed in system
Immediate invalidation:
If BTC breaks below $110.6K: close all ETH longs
If funding spikes above 0.18%: scale down or exit
Not financial advice.
Ethereum analysisIt’s been nearly 44 days that the price has been moving inside a range, and now it has reached the bottom of the range channel.
On the higher cycles, Ethereum’s trend is bullish, and as long as the 3700 support zone is not broken, we should continue to look for long positions.
There’s also a high probability that the price will move toward the decision-making zone. ✅
ETH ANALYSISETH has broken above the long-term trendline, a major structural shift on the weekly chart.
From here, I think price may pull back to retest the trendline along with the bull market support band.
If that retest holds and momentum stays constructive, ETH could bounce strongly and eventually push toward making a new all-time high.
🎯 Conclusion: My view is bullish in the bigger picture — I expect ETH to retest the trendline and bull market support band before attempting a major breakout to new highs.