Trigger: 4h-close above 4732 (Donch-High)What does it mean now
1. The trend is strong: MACD↑, ADX ~51, CMF>0, candles above BB-Upper and above Keltner-Upper — the trend extension continues after the squeeze.
2. But: OI is falling (z168 < 0, ROC<0) → the movement is mainly driven by short covering/offer withdrawals, and its sustainability depends on the stabilization/growth of OI.
3. On the profile, we are at the upper limit of value (VAH ~4763); above is LVN ~4813 (a thin zone that can accelerate the breakout), and below is the POC magnet ~4497.
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Key levels
• Resistances: 4732 (Donchian-High 20/55) → 4763 (VAH) → 4813 (LVN) → 4870-4900 zone (above LVN/narrow volumes).
• Supports: 4670/4666 (Keltner/BB-Upper — first edge) → 4583 (Donchian-Mid 20, ≈EMA20) → 4531 (Keltner-Mid) → 4497 (POC) → 4433 (Donchian-Low 20).
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Scenarios and triggers (not the financial council)
A) Continuation of the upward trend (basic)
Why basic: strong trend (ADX~51), positive flows (CMF>0, MFI~67), MACD momentum↑, exit above BB/Keltner.
• Trigger: 4h-close above 4732 (Donch-High) + ~0.1·ATR ≈ +7$ → > 4739, with CMF>0, OBV z>0 and OI stabilization (does not fall).
• Targets: 4763 (VAH) → 4813 (LVN — thin acceleration corridor) → 4870-4900.
• Invalidator: a quick return below 4670/4666 (Keltner/BB-Upper) with a weakening of the MACD histogram and a drop in the RSI<65.
B) Rotation to the middle / balance
• Trigger: rejection of 4732–4763 (extended upper shadows) + 4h-close < 4670/4666, RSI goes < 60, MFI < 50, OI grows on the fall.
• Targets: 4583 → 4531 → 4497 (POC). If weak, 4433 (Don 20 Low).
C) Squeeze acceleration up (if shorts accumulate under 4750–4760)
• Trigger: breakout > 4739 on falling OI on a green candle (short-top) or a sharp increase in delta/OBV.
• Targets: 4813 → 4870–4900.
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Tactics (example of logic)
• Impulse long: after fixing > 4739. Partial fixation at 4763, then trail to the area of 4813 → 4870–4900. Stop under 4670/4666 (or under the re-test level of the breakout).
• Reversal long (conservative): zones 4583–4531/4497 with signs of demand (candle reaction, CMF>0, OBV z>0). Stop under 4433.
• Contra-trend short: only with a clear rejection of 4732–4763 + RSI/MFI reversal down, MACD weakening and OI growth on the fall. Targets are 4670 → 4583 → 4531/4497; stop is 4765–4775.
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Briefly: what to expect
• The basic expectation is for the trend to continue if it consolidates above 4739, with targets of 4763 → 4813 → 4870–4900.
• If we get a rejection and a close below 4670/4666, it is logical to rotate to 4583 → 4531 → 4497 (POC) to "reboot" the momentum.
• An important filter is OI: stabilization/growth will support the uptrend; a continued decrease in OI on growth increases the risk of a rollback to POC.
