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AUD/USD Rolling Spot Futures

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RSAU1! trade ideas

Is Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) on the verge of collapse? This is CoT index of Australian Dollars. As you can see every time Commercials(blue line) are in long term(3-year) negative extreme AND Retailers(green line) are in positive extreme, the asset tanks. The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations. The last time we had this condition was September 2017 which resulted in multi-year downward momentum. Here is the commercials net position. The last time they were negative in net positions was July 2020. which resulted in AUD going down up to now. Now they are negative again. This is Retailers net positions. Interesting part is whenever their net position is around 10,000, AUDUSD seems to go down. On top of that the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality trends indicate that the market typically reaches its peak around July 24. Therefore, it is expected to decline from that point onward.
CME:6A1!Short
by XardasX
3
We expect the ceiling of 0.6600 to break upwards.A support zone has formed between 0.6515 and 0.6550. There is a lot of potential demand in this area that could push the price higher. According to the conditions of the chart, it is very difficult to reduce the price below the range of 0.6500, but if this happens, without a doubt, the price target of 0.6450 will be considered by the sellers, but when the price reaches this level, we will face many demands. Therefore, with the conditions in the chart, only buying is suggested. We expect the ceiling of 0.6600 to break upwards.
CME:6A1!Long
by BourseNegar
New lows for Aussie Dollar Futures Coming? CME Australian dollar futures have pulled back to the neckline of the recent head and shoulders pattern, which presents bears with a formidable selling opportunity. Recent strength in the USD has certainly been a boon to Australian dollar futures, and with the influx of encouraging economic data in the U.S.over the past few weeks, it appears likely that strength will persist. Moreover, greater confidence in the breakdown of Aussie dollar futures can be drawn with the increased selling pressure on the break through the neckline on the right shoulder. Over the course of the next few weeks, it is likely that the neckline will begin to act as resistance if prices indeed accelerate lower. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:6A1!Short
by Blue_Line_Futures
Aussie Dollar Shorting Opportunity Today we broke out of a 4 hour consolidation pattern and also broke through previous structure. 4 hour and 1 hour charts are in a downtrend. 1 hour chart has strong momentum to the downside. And we have pulled back into a 1 hour supply zone hitting the 2nd ADR checkpoint on our TrendCloud System. Let's see if we can hit T1 and then trail the last contract. If you want to learn this setup and take advantage of extended trends that reach its Average Daily Range then just click the link in my profile. See you in the next video :) Chris Juliano
CME:6AH2024Short
by thechrisjuliano
Swing Trade Journal - 6ASwing Trade Journal - 6A MFI: Good Algo: Good The information and trading activities shared within this online trading journal are solely for the purpose of personal record-keeping and forward testing. It is important to note that any trades, strategies, or insights presented here are not intended as financial advice or recommendations for others to follow. Not Financial Advice: The content of this trading journal does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. The trades and strategies discussed are based on personal preferences and risk tolerance. Risk and Responsibility: Trading in financial markets carries inherent risks and can result in significant financial loss. It is essential to conduct your own research, consult with a qualified financial advisor, and thoroughly assess your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. For Personal Use Only: The trades and strategies shared in this journal are specific to the author's personal trading goals and circumstances. They may not be suitable for others due to differences in financial goals, risk appetite, and market knowledge. Forward Testing: The purpose of sharing trading activities is for personal record-keeping and forward testing. The author may be evaluating different trading approaches and learning from their outcomes. These records are not meant to be taken as trading signals for others. No Liability: The author of this trading journal is not liable for any financial losses, damages, or consequences resulting from the use or interpretation of the information provided. Any actions taken based on the content of this journal are undertaken at the reader's own risk.
CME:6A1!Short
by numericstrader
The Bear Case for AUD/USD:Capitalizing on Aussie Dollar WeaknessExpressing Our View We expect the AUD to remain weak against the USD, supporting AUD/USD short positions. We believe that the RBA’s tightening cycle is over, supported by rising unemployment figures and moderating inflation. On the other hand, USD should continue to stand tall as Treasury yields climb and the “Higher for Longer” interest rate narrative gains traction. Because of AUD's status as a commodity currency and proxy to China , waning commodity demand and economic woes in China should also limit any meaningful upside for AUD/USD. Barring inflation surprising to the upside, we think that the RBA has no reason to hike rates any further. We favour the hypothetical trade setup below in order to express our view. Short AUD/USD Micro Futures: We favour taking a short position with entry at the present level of 0.6476, target level at 0.6200, and stop loss above 0.6500 psychological resistance at 0.6550. Losses in AUD/USD could accelerate once monthly low at 0.6370 is breached. The contract may head towards the October low of 0.6200- which coincides with a fundamental backdrop with US 10Y yields above 4.2% and factory protests in China. This setup delivers a reward: risk ratio of 3.73x. • Entry Level: Present level of 0.6476 • Target Level: 0.6200 • Stop Loss Level: 0.6550 • Reward: Risk Ratio: 3.73x
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by phillip_nova
Aussie Dollar: Headwinds AheadAUD is a commodity currency. Australia’s resources rich economy is heavily influenced by commodity trade, particularly with China. When China sneezes, the AUD catches cold. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s rate hiking cycle approaching an end plus China’s economic recovery remaining anaemic, the AUD is likely to weaken further in the short term. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro AUD/USD futures to gain from a weakening Australian Dollar with an entry at 0.6584 combined with a target exit at 0.6300 hedged by a stop loss of 0.6747 delivering a reward to risk ratio of 1.75x. RBA HAS PAUSED ITS INFLATION FIGHT Fending off a stubborn inflationary environment, the RBA was quick to follow the Fed’s path in raising its lending rates to cool the economy. While not as aggressive as the Fed, the RBA held its rates at elevated levels. Inflation in Australia has eased from its peak but hovers above those in the US. The RBA expects inflation to abate gradually to target levels of 2% by mid-2025. With inflation trending lower and GDP softening, the RBA rate hiking cycle is likely at its apex. The RBA did not hike rates at its last two meetings. Much like other central banks, the RBA will be guided by macroeconomic data in shaping the path ahead for interest rates. Thus far, economic data supports the case for no further rate hikes. Consumer spending and GDP growth has slowed over the last two quarters. Barring an unexpected reversal, the rates are at their peak. Sharp retail slowdown in June also vindicates RBA’s case for pause. Still, the odds of further rate hikes are non-zero. The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone stating that further tightening may be warranted. Previously, even though RBA had opted for a pause in April, scorching inflation numbers forced the central bank to hike rates in May & June. RBA’s next policy meeting is on September 5th and until then, the current bearish sentiment is likely to prevail. If RBA opts to continue with the rate pause, AUD is likely to weaken further. US DEBT DOWNGRADES AND THE DOLLAR SMILE Fitch, a leading ratings agency, recently downgraded US treasury debt. The downgrade has led to limited impact on treasury yields or the USD. Instead, the downgrade led to reduced appetite for risk assets and increased flow into the safety of the US Dollar. This is the classic dollar smile phenomenon at play. The dollar smile helps explain the tendency of USD to shine when the US economy is not only strongly outperforming, but also when it faces turbulence. This bodes negatively for the AUD which is a volatile currency as it takes cues from global commodities. Reduction in risk appetite leads to further weakening in the AUD. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE ECONOMIC RECOVERY China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Australia is a resource rich nation. Substantial portion of its resources are exported to China. Iron Ore, Copper, and Natural Gas top the list. Consequently, a slowdown in China adversely impacts the Australian Dollar. China’s post-COVID recovery has been underwhelming. Growth is weaker than expected and domestic consumption remains fragile. Though there are signals that these may rebound, the process will be slow which suggests there will be limited demand from China for Australian commodities in the near term. Inadequate Stimulus China has not been able to rely on external demand for its goods to support its recovery. This has put further pressure on stimulating domestic demand. Last week, Chinese officials announced stimulus measures which have fallen short of expectations. Officials have indicated further stimulus, but details remain scant and timeline vague. Given that, Chinese economic recovery is likely to be drawn out. Feeble Manufacturing Activity Manufacturing forms the backbone of the Chinese economy. Activity in the sector had been shrinking since February. However, the latest PMI data points to a slow reversal in this trend. Inventory levels improved suggesting that de-stocking is ending. However, PMI at 49.3 still points to shrinking manufacturing activity which may take several months to recover as global demand remains pale. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNALS SIGNIFICANT NEAR-TERM BEARISHNESS Aggregate Put/Call ratio of CME Options on AUD futures stands at 1.74 indicating a clear bearish sentiment heavily weighted towards the front of the curve. Analysing ratio across expiries, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish in the near term with signs of bullishness in Q4. Meanwhile, CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report shows that asset managers are positioned net short on the AUD and increased net short positioning by ~9000 contracts (~21%) last week. Conversely, leveraged funds have switched their net short positioning to net long last week. Overall, COT points to a bearish sentiment. TRADE SETUP With Australian interest rates at their peak and Chinese economic recovery expected to be drawn out, investors can gain from the near-term weakening in the AUD using a short position in CME’s Micro AUD/USD futures expiring in September. CME Micro AUD/USD Futures have a margin requirement of just USD 170 (as of August 7th) and provides exposure to 10,000 AUD. Every pip delivers a P&L of USD 1. • Entry: 0.6584 • Target: 0.6300 • Stop Loss: 0.6747 • Profit at Target: USD 284 (284 pips * USD 1 = USD 284) • Loss at Stop: USD 163 (163 pips * USD 1 = USD 163) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.75x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1