Wall Street extends record run as Shutdown delays key data, Fed Wall Street extends record run as Shutdown delays key data, Fed in Focus
U.S. stocks closed at record highs on Oct. 2, led by tech, with futures extending gains the next day. Optimism is supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, though the government shutdownโnow in its third dayโhas delayed key data, including nonfarm payrolls, leaving traders reliant on weaker private labor surveys.
With official releases on hold, ISM and S&P Global PMI data will carry added weight, while Fed officialsโ speeches could sway rate-cut bets. While momentum points to weekly gains, the rally remains fragile as political gridlock, hawkish commentary, or profit-taking could trigger volatility.
Market Implications:
Supportive factors: Tech sector strength, softer labor signals, and rate-cut expectations.
Risks: Prolonged shutdown delaying visibility on economic conditions, potential hawkish Fed commentary, and profit-taking at record levels.
Outlook: If momentum holds, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are positioned to close the week higher, though volatility is likely to remain elevated until greater policy clarity emerges.
NAS100 trade ideas
US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
Shutdown risk, Investors eye Jobs DataShutdown risk, Investors eye Jobs Data
U.S. stock index futures slipped on 30 September as investors awaited key labor reports and braced for possible delays in economic data due to a looming government shutdown. The risk-off shift follows Mondayโs equity gains, with analysts warning this standoff could be more disruptive given the fragile economic backdrop.
Markets are focused on the Labor Departmentโs JOLTS report and consumer confidence data, while several Fed officials are set to speak. Earnings season and potential price hikes from companies will also draw attention as Q4 begins, historically a supportive period for stocks.
Budget negotiations remain deadlocked in Washington, raising the likelihood of a shutdown that could stall government services and key data releases. Wall Street futures eased from record highs, Treasury yields edged lower, and the dollar softened, while the yen and Aussie dollar gained.
Beyond the Chart - NAS100 Through Technicals & FundamentalsCAPITALCOM:US100 The trendline I drew on the lower timeframe yesterday worked perfectly, and price is still respecting it. We did see a break, but right after that, a Bearish FVG and a Breaker Block formed. This trendline will remain my pilot line for analysis.
NASDAQ Daily Analysis ๐
On the daily chart, the FVG formed on Sep 15th has been revisited, but price couldn't hold in this zone and was quickly rejected. The trendline I've drawn is still active and guiding the move.
โก๏ธVolatility note: Daily volatility is starting to compress (blue print on my model), meaning the next breakout move could expand strongly. If price breaks above the trendline with momentum, buyers may look beyond 24,650 toward 24,720โ24,800 before reevaluating. If rejection holds, compressed volatility could fuel an accelerated drop into the 24,520 โ 24,440 FVG zone, and possibly 24,300.
๐ฆ If a bullish candle closes back above the trendline, Iโll be looking at 24,650 as a buy trigger. A confirmed break here could open the door toward 24,720 โ 24,780 liquidity levels.
๐ผ If sellers keep control below the trend, downside targets remain at the FVGs around 24,520 โ 24,440, and potentially 24,300 (Discount PD Array).
โก๏ธ Bottom line:
Todayโs US data (Chicago PMI, JOLTS, Consumer Confidence) + multiple FOMC speeches will likely decide direction.
๐ Hot data or hawkish tone โ sellers push deeper.
๐ Softer numbers or dovish Fed comments โ bulls may retest higher levels.
NAS100 - Stock Market Awaits Employment Data!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the upward momentum decreases, we can expect a correction to the demand range and buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk.
According to reports released over the weekend, UBS stated that there is a 93% probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year. This figure implicitly suggests that the country may already be in recession, though some analysts remain skeptical of such a direct conclusion. UBSโs projection is based on indicators such as personal income, consumption, industrial production, and employment.
The bank warned that the U.S. economy has reached โhistorically troubling levels,โ though no outright collapse has yet occurred. Analysts at UBS described the economy as โweak, soft, and fragile,โ while noting that a definitive declaration of recession has not been made.
In the United States, an official declaration of recession is the responsibility of the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which typically makes such calls with a lag of 6 to 18 months after the recession has started. Their assessment relies on revised data covering GDP, employment, income, sales, and production, and they generally avoid premature decisions.
In the meantime, policymakers and markets tend to act on real-time indicators such as GDP estimates, jobs data, yield curve signals, and credit spreads. In practice, traders react more strongly to price movements than to formal definitions of recession.
Separately, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, dismissed Fed board member Steven Miranโs call for cutting rates to 2.5% or lower. The bank has maintained its forecast for gradual 25-basis-point cuts, targeting a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by early next year.
A potential Supreme Court case involving Fed board member Lisa Cook has also emerged as a โwild card,โ since a ruling against her could undermine the positions of other members as well. J.P. Morgan has warned that politicization of the Federal Reserve would leave the institution more vulnerable to pressure from a Trump administration on monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar remained relatively strong this week, as investors continued to parse the Fedโs less-dovish stance. While the latest dot plot showed policymakers aligned with the market on two additional rate cuts this year, the median dot for 2026 pointed to only one more 25-basis-point reduction. By contrast, markets still expect as many as three cuts next year.
However, following Chair Jerome Powellโs cautious tone on Tuesdayโemphasizing that the Fed must continue balancing the competing risks of elevated inflation and a weakening labor marketโinvestors scaled back some of their bets.
Inflation risks remain significant. The OECD highlighted this week that the full effects of tariff hikes are still unfolding. What supports Powellโs cautious approach is that, despite signs of labor market weakness, the Fedโs own forecasts remain relatively optimistic, with economic activity showing resilience. The Atlanta Fedโs GDPNow model projects 3.3% growth for Q3.
Although last weekโs inflation data failed to dampen market optimism for rate cutsโand equities continued their rallyโthe focus in the coming week will shift back to labor market conditions.
The week begins Monday with pending home sales data. On Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report and the consumer confidence index will be released. Wednesday brings private-sector employment data from ADP, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims will be published as usual.
All of these releases will build up to Fridayโs critical nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, widely seen as the marketโs ultimate test.Investors will closely monitor whether recent labor market weakness persists, and whether the Fed can move another step toward a rate cut at the October meeting. Finally, the ISM Services Index will provide a more comprehensive picture of U.S. economic health.
Ahead of the jobs data, traders may also take note of remarks from several Fed officials, including Vice Chair Jefferson, New York Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Logan. The ADP and NFP releases on Wednesday will likely provide the first snapshot of September labor market performance.
Beyond the Chart - NAS100 Through Technicals & FundamentalsThe trendline I drew last week played out perfectly. Price has carved out a fresh trend on the lower timeframe and is breaking to the upside. But the real confirmation comes only if the FVG is fully filled and we get a strong bullish close above 24,700.
NASDAQ Daily Analysis ๐
๐Hold above 24,500 โ 24,520 โ BUY targeting 24,700 (upper FVG). Break & hourly close above 24,700 โ room to push toward 24,850 โ 24,900.
๐24,700 โ 24,750 โ strong SELL zone (Premium PD Array + FVG overlap). First downside target: 24,400 โ 24,350.
โก๏ธBottom line:
โข Bullish caseโ If inflation comes in lower and the Fed takes a softer tone โ buyers could step in and push levels higher.
โข Bearish case โ If data runs hot and the Fed signals more tightening โ selling pressure kicks in, and your short levels become key.
NASDAQ in no action zone. Buy break-out or pull-back.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and its most recent low has been on its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) 2 days ago.
As long as it holds, it maintains the short-term bullish trend but a confirmed buy signal would be after the price breaks above its previous 24800 High.
Until it does, it might be within a technical Bearish Leg similar to late August's and mid June's that both broke below the 4H MA100 before bottoming on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up and rebounded. The 4H RSI Lower Highs structure shows that we might be on such a pull-back sequence, which turns into a buy below 33.00 (RSI).
As a result, we will either wait for a 24800 break-out or a 1D MA50 (black trend-line) pull-back before initiating a buy again. In both cases, our Target is 25500 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
NAS100 -Head and Shoulders Formed. Price Sitting at the NecklinePrice had been climbing steadily and consistently till now. See my previous analysis:
Or click on the attached idea on my chart.
But momentum is starting to be fading.
And if we look closely, we could recognize a head and shoulders pattern. We have the first peak, the left shoulder. Then a taller peak, the head. And finally, a lower high, the right shoulder.
And right now, price is sitting right at that neckline. So the market is at decision point:
A strong break below would confirm the Head and Shoulders and trigger the reversal.
- If price will break below this neckline with momentum, the pattern is confirmed. And that would be our short signal anticipating a move down, towards 24.400.
- But if buyers step in here, the pattern could fail.
The target is measured from the head to the neckline, and projected below the breakout.
Itโs a key moment and the next move will decide the outcome.
Your childhood goes everything against TRADING!๐ฑ Growing up vs. Trading
As kids, life drilled one thing into us: WIN, WIN, WIN.
Walk and talk fast โ WIN
Get top grades โ WIN
Buy the best cars & houses โ WIN
Land the dream job & make big money โ WIN
๐ Losing? Not even on the table.
But then comes TRADINGโฆ and the rules flip.
Here, you actually need to LOSE to WIN.
Small losses = stepping stones to bigger gains.
Consistency + persistence = long-term success.
๐ฅ The New Rule of Trading
Accept losses โ theyโre part of the game.
Cut them quick โ protect your capital.
Learn from each one โ losses = tuition fees for success.
Think of it like a board gameโฆ
Every time you โlose a turn,โ youโre not failing โ youโre moving closer to the BIG win.
Sounds backwards? Thatโs the paradox that makes trading magical.
โก We Werenโt Raised to Take Risks
As kids: โPlay it safe!โ
As traders: โEmbrace risk โ but make it calculated.โ
Hereโs the secret sauce:
Know your risk tolerance โ maybe 0.5%โ2% per trade.
Diversify โ never stack all your eggs in one basket.
Use stop losses โ cut risk, lock in gains, stay alive in the game.
๐ง Trading = A Whole New Mindset
Not about avoiding losses but managing them.
Not about avoiding risks but embracing calculated ones.
Not about ego but strategy, patience, and persistence.
๐ก Final Word
Trading humbles us.
We shed the ego.
We lose battles but win wars.
We stay consistent.
We accept the small hitsโฆ because theyโre the price we pay for the BIG victories.
๐ Love your losses. Respect them.
Because every small โLโ is one step closer to your biggest โW.โ
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Beyond the Chart - NAS100 Through Technicals & FundamentalsCAPITALCOM:US100 Update ๐
The trendline I drew yesterday played out perfectly. After the Bearish FVG + rejection, the trend broke and a second Bearish FVG formed right after.
NASDAQ Daily Analysis ๐
On the daily chart, the FVG formed on Sep 15th has been revisited, but price couldnโt hold in this zone and was quickly rejected. The trendline Iโve drawn is still active and guiding the move.
๐ If a bullish candle forms above the trend, Iโll be looking at 24,543 as a buy point.
๐ If sellers take control and push price below the trend, we could see a move down toward the FVG region at 24,340.
โกBottom line:
โข If Core PCE cools off โ bullish continuation fits.
โข If Core PCE runs hot โ expect sellers to take control.
Nasdaq records near critical resistance! More to go or crash?Strong economic data suggest the soft landing scenario remains intact. Manufacturing strength, combined with improving employment data, appears to provide support. The Fed's dovish pivot also offers liquidity tailwinds, while the Nvidia-Intel partnership signals continued investment in US stocks.
But is the market reading the signals?
Strong employment data could actually be bearish for equities since it reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut. The Fed's dot plot already shows fewer 2026 cuts (only one instead of three) with higher growth and (slightly higher) inflation projections. The Nvidia-Intel deal also excludes Intel's struggling foundry business, a core problem for the company.
Technicals are not too promising either. Multiple resistance factors converge just a tad higher if not at current levels:
Long-term trendline from November 2021
138% Fibonacci level
Triangle pattern measured move completion
100% Fibonacci expansion target
Indicators flash warnings too:
RSI second divergence since May (price up, momentum flat)
Volume oscillator 13% below zero - lack of institutional buying
Missing third-wave volume surge - typical bull pattern absent
Fifth-wave characteristics suggesting impulse completion
As we trade in the historically worst month for equities, where the NASDAQ typically underperforms the S&P 500 during September selloffs, a high-probability short setup could be underway:
Entry : 24,700-24,750 area (resistance test)
Stop : Above 25,000 (avoid false breakout)
Targets : 23,700 โ 22,730 โ 22,200
Risk-Reward : Approximately 2.6:1 to first major support
Prefer a 5-wave decline if bear case confirms, followed by a 3-wave up, then continuation lower.
Watch 24,500 as it appears to be a decision point where multiple technical and fundamental factors converge.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
shortim looking for retest trade, this isn't the entry, will be looking at 1m, around this zone. but not this tp. just putting it out there, should have some move around here, for a real try to retest this down, if 1m, just keeps pumping and closes above the zone will look to switch long.
wednesday and friday no trade. will trade live with our group.
US100: Approaching resistance, pullback likely before breakoutThe IG:NASDAQ has shown a strong short-term recovery after breaking a major descending trendline. However, price is now testing a significant resistance zone, and a technical pullback is likely before the uptrend can continue.
๐ Technical Analysis: 30-minute Chart
๐ 1. Overall Trend
Price has successfully broken above a descending trendline (red line), shifting market structure from bearish to bullish.
An uptrend line (green) is now acting as dynamic support.
Price is trading near the upper band of the Keltner Channel, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
๐ฅ 2. Resistance Zone: 24,596 โ 24,681
This zone has acted as a strong supply area in the past, causing multiple rejections.
Price is currently testing this area again โ a rejection or short-term pullback is highly probable.
๐ฆ 3. Support Zone: 24,383 โ 24,500
This zone overlaps with previous consolidation and aligns with the uptrend line.
If a pullback occurs, this area could attract buyers and act as a launchpad for the next leg up.
๐ Potential Trade Setups
โณ๏ธ Primary Scenario (preferred):
Price rejects at resistance โ pulls back to support โ bounces and resumes the uptrend
Wait for a pullback toward 24,500 โ 24,383
Look for bullish price action (e.g., bullish engulfing, hammer) for entry
Enter long if support holds:
๐ฏ TP1: 24,650
๐ฏ TP2: 24,700+
๐ SL: Below 24,350 (trendline invalidation)
๐ป Alternative Scenario (risk):
If price breaks below 24,383 and the uptrend line fails โ short-term trend could shift sideways or bearish
Avoid long entries without a confirmed recovery
Re-evaluate trend structure if support fails
โ
Conclusion
A short-term uptrend is in place
However, price is now testing a major resistance zone, and a healthy pullback is likely
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future ๐โจ
NAS100 Technical Analysis โ Key Resistance TestAfter a strong recovery from 24,300, NAS100 pushed higher but is now facing rejection at the 24,750 resistance zone. The index is holding above short-term structure but has yet to clear this key barrier.
Support at: 24,300 ๐ฝ / 23,900 ๐ฝ
Resistance at: 24,750 ๐ผ
๐ Bias:
๐ผ Bullish: A clean breakout and hold above 24,750 could open the way for further upside momentum.
๐ฝ Bearish: Failure to break higher and a sustained drop below 24,300 may trigger deeper retracements toward 23,900.
NASDAQ-NAS100 4H Analysis: Buy OpportunityHello Guys,
Iโve prepared a 4-hour NAS100 analysis for you.
Iโll be entering a buy position from 24,500.00 with a target set at 24,748.00.
Set your stop level according to your own margin.
Once the markets open, Iโll definitely take my shot on the buy side of NAS100.
Letโs see how this analysis plays out together.
Every like is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Thanks to everyone supporting me!
US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
US NAS100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
NAS100: CRITICAL BREAKOUT ZONE! 25K Battle Ahead ๐ NAS100: CRITICAL BREAKOUT ZONE! 25K Battle Ahead ๐
Current Price: 24,507.1 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 โฐ
๐ INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days)
๐ฏ BULLISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 24,480 - 24,520 ๐
Stop Loss: 24,420 ๐
Target 1: 24,650 ๐ฏ
Target 2: 24,800 ๐
๐ฏ BEARISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 24,550 - 24,580 ๐
Stop Loss: 24,630 ๐
Target 1: 24,300 ๐ฏ
Target 2: 24,150 ๐
๐ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
๐ KEY INDICATORS STATUS:
RSI (14): 58.3 โก *Neutral Zone - Room to Move*
Bollinger Bands: Mid-band Squeeze ๐ฅ
VWAP: 24,465 - Dynamic Support Holding ๐ช
EMA 50: 24,380 โ
*Bullish Above Key Level*
Volume: Declining ๐ *Awaiting Catalyst*
๐ WAVE ANALYSIS:
Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Correction Complete ๐
Next Target: Wave 5 Extension to 25,200+ ๐ฏ
๐ HARMONIC PATTERNS:
Bullish Bat Pattern Active at 24,450 โจ
ABCD Completion targeting 24,750 ๐
โ๏ธ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks)
๐ BULLISH TARGETS:
Weekly Resistance: 24,850 ๐
Monthly Target: 25,200 ๐
Gann Square of 9: 25,000 โญ
๐ BEARISH INVALIDATION:
Weekly Support: 24,200 โ ๏ธ
Critical Level: 24,000 ๐จ
๐ญ MARKET STRUCTURE:
Trend: Consolidating Bullish ๐ช
Momentum: Building Energy ๐ฅ
Wyckoff Phase: Re-accumulation ๐
Ichimoku: Neutral Cloud ๐ก
๐ฅ CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH:
Resistance: 24,600 | 24,750 | 25,000 ๐ง
Support: 24,350 | 24,200 | 24,000 ๐ก๏ธ
Breakout Trigger: 24,580 confirmed close ๐ฅ
โก RISK MANAGEMENT:
Max Risk per Trade: 1.5% ๐ก๏ธ
R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:3 โ๏ธ
Position Size: Conservative in Range ๐
๐ MARKET CATALYSTS:
Tech Earnings Season Approaching ๐ผ
Fed Policy Impact on Growth Stocks ๐๏ธ
AI/Tech Momentum Driving Index ๐ค
๐ฏ FINAL VERDICT:
NAS100 coiling for EXPLOSIVE MOVE! ๐
25K psychological level in sight! ๐ฅ
Watch for volume spike above 24,580 ๐
Trade Management: Scale in on pullbacks to VWAP ๐
Key Decision Zone: 24,500-24,600 battle crucial โ๏ธ
---
*โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Use proper risk management. This analysis is for educational purposes only.*
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
๐ Follow for Daily Updates | ๐ฌ Share Your NAS100 Strategy
Positioning for a government shutdown: gold, Nasdaq 100, EURUSDUnless Congress can reach an agreement before 1 October, the federal government will shut down. The last major shutdown, during President Trumpโs first term, lasted 34 days.
Markets are already weighing the risks of plummeting confidence in the US and its currency and disruptions to the release of important economic data. For traders, this can create volatility and opportunity across major asset classes.
Gold
Gold often benefits from political and fiscal uncertainty. If a shutdown occurs, safe-haven flows could push the metal higher.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 has been sensitive to swings in sentiment around government stability and interest rate expectations. A shutdown could amplify volatility. Traders should be mindful of potential gap moves at the weekly open if negotiations falter over the weekend.
EUR/USD
A shutdown that undermines confidence in U.S. fiscal management could weigh on the EUR/USD in the short term. However, Europe faces its own economic issues, potentially keeping the pair range-bound for now.