SPX updateLikely higher still over 6700 with a divergent low on the vix still to come. After that, we may see a stronger and more consistent move down.
VIX trade ideas
VIX set-up....interesting week aheadTo the untrained eye, you see VIX go up and down, just like any other time. Taking a big step back, you'll know that VIX has been super complacent (very strange looking back 30 years) for about 6 months. Over the last few days, we see SMA9 crossing UP SMA50! Why does this matter? Because when VIX spikes, it really spikes! Next week we have the gov shutdown and a lot of funky things going on with Russia / NATO that can spark something big, hopefully not! Many other news could spike it, but we've seen a weakness in the general market and potentially a Volmageddon 2.0 in the making. Put your alerts on and nice upside with $UVIX!
Bears Trapped at Resistance - Volatility Squeeze Imminent📊 To see my confluences and/or linework, step 1: grab chart, step 2: unhide Group 1 in object tree, step 3: hide and unhide specific confluences. 😊
🎯 VIX: Bears Trapped at Resistance - Volatility Squeeze Imminent
The Market Participant Battle:
The volatility bears who successfully crushed VIX from point 2 (19+) down to point 3 (17-) have now been confirmed as the dominant force. With VIX returning to their established resistance zone at point 4 (18.73), these sellers are coiling for another aggressive push lower. The setup shows institutional volatility sellers systematically beating retail fear buyers, with price expected to collapse back toward the 15-16 range as complacency returns to the market.
Confluences:
Confluence 1: Price Pattern Confirmation (Points 1→4)
The numbered sequence reveals a textbook seller confirmation pattern. When point 3 closed below point 1, it validated point 2 as a confirmed resistance zone where volatility sellers defeated buyers. Point 4's return to this zone represents the second test of proven sellers - a high-probability reversal setup. The pattern suggests VIX should fail here and return toward recent lows.
Confluence 2: Major Pitchfork Resistance
The primary pitchfork structure confirms point 4 as a critical turning point. Price is respecting the upper parallel line perfectly, suggesting strong dynamic resistance. This technical structure has contained VIX rallies throughout the recent range-bound period, reinforcing the bear case.
Confluence 3: Volume Profile Gap Above
The fixed range volume profile shows a significant gap above point 4, indicating lack of trading interest or support at higher levels. This vacuum above current prices suggests any attempted breakout would face immediate selling pressure due to lack of structural support.
Confluence 4: Anchored VWAP Rejection
The anchored VWAP from point 1 shows point 4 pulling above then failing under the first standard deviation. This classic "deviation trap" pattern often precedes sharp reversals as institutions enter shorts above key deviations while retail traders chase breakouts.
Confluence 5: Momentum Divergences
Both RSI and MFI show overbought conditions with clear second-degree bearish divergence. The OBV is hitting resistance at its descending trendline, confirming distribution rather than accumulation at these levels. These triple divergences strongly suggest exhaustion of the current rally.
Confluence 6: Fibonacci Resistance Zone
The 0→3.1 Fibonacci retracement shows point 4 falling precisely into the 0.62-0.79 "reversal zone" - a high-probability area for trend continuation after retracements.
Web Research Findings:
- Technical Analysis: VIX below 20 indicates market stability , currently at 18.73 resistance
- Recent News/Earnings: Fed cut rates by 0.25% to 4.00%-4.25% range on September 17
- Analyst Sentiment: October VIX futures trade at significant premium to September, suggesting post-Fed turbulence ahead
- Data Releases & Economic Calendar: Next FOMC meeting scheduled for October with markets pricing additional cuts
- Interest Rate Impact: Fed indicated two more cuts in 2025, taking funds rate to around 3%
Layman's Summary:
The Fed just cut rates and markets initially calmed down, pushing VIX lower. However, traders are betting on increased volatility in October (after the next Fed meeting). Right now, VIX is testing a proven resistance level where sellers have won before. With the market showing complacency and technical indicators screaming "overbought," this looks like a perfect spot for volatility to get crushed again before any October drama unfolds.
Machine Derived Information:
- Image 1: 4-hour VIX showing numbered pattern with clear resistance at 18.73 - Significance: Confirms seller dominance pattern - AGREES ✔
- Image 2: 4-hour with support/resistance bands showing 18.73 as key level - Significance: Multiple touches confirm resistance strength - AGREES ✔
- Image 3: 4-hour with volume profile showing gap above current levels - Significance: Lack of support for breakout attempts - AGREES ✔
- Image 4: Pitchfork analysis showing upper parallel resistance - Significance: Dynamic resistance confluence - AGREES ✔
- Image 5: Fibonacci and momentum indicators showing overbought divergences - Significance: Multiple reversal signals aligning - AGREES ✔
Actionable Machine Summary:
All five chart images confirm the same story: VIX is hitting major resistance at 18.73 with multiple technical rejections signals firing simultaneously. The volume structure shows no support above, momentum is exhausted with divergences, and the pitchfork/Fibonacci levels all converge at this exact zone. This is a textbook short setup with exceptional confluence.
Conclusion:
Trade Prediction: SUCCESS
Confidence: High
This VIX short setup offers exceptional risk/reward with a stop just above 20 (psychological resistance) targeting 15-16 initially and potentially 13 on extended weakness. The combination of confirmed seller dominance, technical resistance confluence, and exhausted momentum creates a compelling short opportunity. With October volatility concerns still weeks away, there's ample time for complacency to return and crush VIX back to recent lows.
$VIX We only just started! Volmageddon 2.0Zoom out on the VIX and you'll find that there is A LOT more runway. Study the VIX for the last 30 years and you'll find that it bottoms out and explodes. We are not at a turning point in the markets with ultra high "hot air balloons" that will come down with a correction that is long overdue. The VIX hasn't been this low in a very long time, so you want to keep the proxy CBOE:UVIX in your radar. Happy trading! Always look to make lemonade out of lemons :)
Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....must watch!I have been saying this for months! Keep an eye on the VIX, always! Yes, it's been down for 5-6 months in a very unnatural way, but things are about to take a turn and potentially in a big way. Ultra-high valuations, crap unemployment, defaults through the roof, PE/CAPE ratios at historic levels, and highest concentration / weight in the stock market. 10 tech companies buying from each other like very good friends with 100% capex that hasn't been spent = 40% of S&P, seriously, WTF! In any case, it's not rosy, and we are overdue a massive spike in the VIX. Use the proxy ETF CBOE:UVIX and add alerts. Best of luck!
$VIX trending up nicely.....buckle your seatbeltVIX has been on the downside for the last few months, mostly because of much f$ckery in the market that is running super hot. I would not be surprised if it crosses 20 this week! You can use UVIX as the proxy. Best of luck! This could be magical
VIX USFA Lights out 9/19/2025 BLACKSWAN PREDICTION
First time in recorded History that Saturn
Will be its closest from earth combined
With a Partial solar eclipse the 9/21/2025
All happening the day before
"Market Maker Day"
global derisking potential
only if sustained over 19,91
Crazy shit is possible
23days after VIX palindrom anniversary
Chritmas Kiss of death expected
@Hanslanda369
VIX spiking....PEEKA BOOTVC:VIX (proxy CBOE:UVIX ) is crossing up key technicals and looks like there is a nice upside. Much of the news hasn't reported that the rate cuts have "already" been priced-in, which is a nice recipe for volatility to spike as people make big moves (mostly sell). Again, 99% of sell orders from insiders are SELL, and congress members are putting PUT options orders too. It also doesn't help that China is not buying NVDIA, which was a big reason for the upside and that has completely faded out. Where do you go when the MARKET has reached the ceiling?
Best of luck and always hedge your positions! VIX / UVIX now has an awesome beta and upside.
What will happen to VIX after another crappy jobs report today?While there is no crystal ball, the jobs market is beyond horrible and many precursors to a massive pullback on coming together; credit defaults, unemployment (after several revisions, each one worse than the last one), China pulling back on US based AI tech (what AI bubble?), and valuations that peak dot.com bubble. The VIX has been unnaturally low, hedge funds are shorting it!, and let's not forget volmaggedon! Could spike any second and it likely will before people get too complacent. This is a recipe for v-maggedon 2.0. Bullish on the economy, but not blind to facts and historical standards when things look very wonky. Best of luck out there! Everyone is a genius when the market is up :)
VIXSuccess in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time. Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
Market Volatility: Introduction and Types1. Introduction to Market Volatility
1.1 Definition of Market Volatility
Market volatility refers to the rate and magnitude of price fluctuations in a financial market over a given period. It is a measure of the risk or uncertainty associated with the changes in the value of assets, securities, or an index. High volatility indicates rapid and large price swings, while low volatility suggests relatively stable prices.
In simple terms, volatility shows how “wild” or “calm” a market is. It is an essential concept for traders, investors, and policymakers because it influences investment decisions, risk management, and market stability.
1.2 Importance of Understanding Market Volatility
Market volatility is not inherently negative; it has both risks and opportunities:
For Investors: Helps in portfolio diversification and managing risk.
For Traders: Offers opportunities for profit from price swings.
For Policymakers: Signals economic uncertainty, financial stress, or speculative bubbles.
For Risk Managers: Enables designing hedging strategies to minimize losses.
Volatility often increases during economic crises, geopolitical tensions, or major policy changes, making its monitoring critical.
1.3 Measuring Market Volatility
Volatility can be measured statistically or derived from market instruments:
Statistical Measures: Standard deviation, variance, beta coefficient.
Implied Volatility: Derived from options pricing models (e.g., Black-Scholes).
Volatility Indices: Like VIX, which reflects the market’s expected future volatility.
Understanding measurement techniques is crucial because they allow investors to quantify uncertainty and price risk more effectively.
2. Types of Market Volatility
Market volatility can be classified into various types based on time horizon, causes, and nature. Understanding these types helps investors and traders adapt strategies to market conditions.
2.1 Historical Volatility
Historical volatility measures past price movements over a specific period.
Calculation: Standard deviation of returns from historical price data.
Use Case: Helps predict future risk based on past trends.
Limitation: Past performance may not always indicate future volatility.
Example: The standard deviation of daily returns of the S&P 500 over the last 30 days.
2.2 Implied Volatility
Implied volatility (IV) is forward-looking, derived from options prices.
Definition: The market’s expectation of the asset’s future volatility.
Calculation: Using options pricing models like Black-Scholes.
Significance: High IV indicates markets expect large price swings, low IV indicates stability.
Example: A sharp increase in VIX reflects high implied volatility for the S&P 500.
2.3 Historical vs. Implied Volatility
Feature Historical Volatility Implied Volatility
Basis Past price data Options prices (future expectation)
Nature Backward-looking Forward-looking
Use in Trading Risk measurement Pricing and hedging
Limitation May not reflect sudden shocks Dependent on market perception
2.4 Market Volatility Based on Frequency
Volatility can also be classified by how often price swings occur:
Short-term Volatility:
Daily or intraday price fluctuations.
Important for day traders and scalpers.
Medium-term Volatility:
Weekly or monthly swings.
Crucial for swing traders and short-term investors.
Long-term Volatility:
Yearly or multi-year fluctuations.
Significant for long-term investors and fund managers.
2.5 Structural Volatility vs. Event-Driven Volatility
Structural Volatility:
Caused by long-term economic, policy, or market structure changes.
Example: Deregulation, introduction of new financial instruments.
Event-Driven Volatility:
Triggered by specific events, usually sudden and short-lived.
Example: Earnings announcements, geopolitical conflicts, central bank rate decisions.
2.6 Sector-Specific vs. Market-Wide Volatility
Sector-Specific Volatility:
Affects specific industries or sectors.
Example: Oil price shocks affecting energy stocks.
Market-Wide Volatility:
Affects the entire market or economy.
Example: Global financial crisis, pandemic-induced market crashes.
2.7 Volatility Based on Price Direction
Symmetric Volatility:
Price swings equally likely upwards or downwards.
Example: Stable markets with balanced buying and selling pressure.
Asymmetric Volatility:
Price swings more pronounced in one direction.
Example: Markets react more sharply to negative news than positive news (leverage effect in stocks).
2.8 Measured vs. Perceived Volatility
Measured Volatility:
Quantitative, calculated using historical price data or standard deviations.
Perceived Volatility:
Psychological perception of risk by investors.
Influenced by media, rumors, and sentiment.
2.9 Other Specialized Types of Volatility
Exchange Rate Volatility:
Fluctuations in currency markets, impacting global trade and investment.
Commodity Price Volatility:
Price swings in commodities like oil, gold, or wheat, often due to supply-demand imbalances.
Interest Rate Volatility:
Fluctuations in bond yields or central bank rates affecting bond markets, equities, and currencies.
Equity Market Volatility:
Swings in stock prices or indices, influenced by earnings, macroeconomics, or speculation.
3. Factors Influencing Market Volatility
Macroeconomic Indicators: GDP growth, inflation, unemployment rates.
Monetary Policies: Central bank interest rate changes, liquidity injections.
Political Events: Elections, geopolitical tensions, trade wars.
Global Shocks: Pandemics, natural disasters, oil crises.
Market Structure: Liquidity, trading volume, leverage, and derivatives use.
Investor Behavior: Herd mentality, fear, greed, and speculative activity.
4. Volatility in Financial Markets
4.1 Equity Markets
Equities often show high volatility due to earnings reports, news, and macroeconomic conditions.
4.2 Bond Markets
Bonds are generally less volatile but sensitive to interest rate changes and credit risk.
4.3 Forex Markets
Currency markets are highly volatile due to global trade, interest rate differentials, and political risk.
4.4 Commodity Markets
Commodity prices fluctuate due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and speculative trading.
5. Implications of Market Volatility
For Traders: Opportunity for profit through short-term trading strategies.
For Investors: Risk management through diversification and hedging.
For Policymakers: Indicator of financial stability and economic stress.
For Economists: Understanding cycles of boom, bust, and correction.
6. Conclusion
Market volatility is an intrinsic characteristic of financial markets, reflecting the dynamic interplay of economic, political, and behavioral factors. Recognizing its types, measurement methods, and underlying causes enables participants to navigate markets more effectively, optimize risk-adjusted returns, and anticipate potential disruptions.
Volatility, when understood and managed correctly, transforms from a source of fear to a tool for opportunity, making it central to modern finance.
VIX Index – Elliott Wave Analysis: Diagonal C CompletionThe VIX index is finalizing an A-B-C corrective structure, with the C-leg forming as a diagonal. Price action suggests this structure is close to completion. Once the diagonal ends, the probability of a sharp upside move in volatility becomes highly likely.
Why does this matter?
A rising VIX reflects fear and risk aversion in the market.
Historically, VIX moves inversely with equities – higher volatility often coincides with S&P 500 weakness.
When VIX breaks out, it signals hedging demand and uncertainty, pushing option premiums higher and increasing market stress.
📌 Trading view: A confirmed breakout from the diagonal would mark the start of a new impulsive leg higher in volatility. This could align with risk-off flows in equities and broader corrections across risk assets.
Patience and confirmation remain key — once VIX turns, it usually accelerates quickly, not quietly.
VIX caution> 16.50 ... slightly bearish (rising VIX)
< 15.99 ... bullish
this is how i'm measuring fear/greed/volatility. last week we were over 17 for a bit. will data or headlines cause us to rise over 17 again this week or next?
hmmmm.... we shall see.
*NFLX keeps playing around 1200. just break down... ugh. lol
*AAPL has been wilding out. cool off if VIX riseses?
Market is awfully bullishThe market in general is very bullish with many indices moving up higher and higher, but the price of gold has also been moving up higher which historically this doesn't end well. This could also mean that many allocation models have funds and liquidity being put into them. The bullish momentum can still continue but this is mainly year end flows following bullish sentiment into record highs along with the recent fed rate cut.
VIX caution signal?Noticed that we closed above the 50 on the RSI... on the day and 1hr chart.
>16 caution
>17... it's higher than 16 so the VIX is rising; caution x2
>20 = elevated VIX
P.S. I noticed that the Fear & Greed index is at greed.
www.cnn.com
VIX looking real sweet now before tomorrow's Job numbersIf you're looking for a nice upside before things get wonky, then look at the $VIX! It's starting to tick-up from all the complacency - folks buying at all time high with insane valuations just not supported historically. The jobs numbers is expected to look pretty grim tomorrow, and with that the market can correct itself. The proxy for TVC:VIX is $UVIX. If you need help, just check the ultrabuy / short signals and you should be fine! Best of luck and stay active in the market otherwise you could be a bag holder for a while, and that's not fun!
US500, USTECH, US30 & VIX Daily Trade SetupsIn this update we review the recent price action in the SP500, Nasdaq, DowJones & VIX identifying the next high-probability trade setups and price objectives to target. To review today's video analysis, click below!
Anticyclical VIX Futures Trade – Calendar SpreadVIX has drifted into complacency territory with stretched short positioning, steep front-end contango, and seasonal factors lining up. Instead of outright longs, a VX1–VX2 Calendar Spread offers cleaner exposure to rising volatility and curve normalization.
Setup
• VIX near equilibrium range (12–15%), entering complacency.
• Futures curve in steep contango → negative carry on outright longs.
• Short positioning at multi-year highs, vulnerable to squeeze.
• Seasonality favors higher VIX.
• Index volatility suppressed, single stocks trading erratically.
Trade Idea
• Long VX1 / Short VX2 (multiplier = 100).
• Benefits from both rising volatility and front-end curve flattening.
• VX1 outperforms VX2 in a spike; VX2 cushions VX1 in grind-lower scenarios.
Entry Triggers
• VIX9D > VIX.
• VIX crossing EMA20/EMA50.
• RSI(14) on VIX > 50.
• SPX daily short setup.
Target
• Target zone to be reached before VX1 expiration.
• Target zone 1: VIX in range 20 - 22, target zone 2: VIX in range 28 – 30
Exit
• On VX1 expiry: VX1 converges to the VIX. VX2 becomes front month. If the position is left open, it effectively becomes a short front-month future and must be re-evaluated.
• Alternatively, close at VIX Index in specified target zone or discretionary, depending on SPX price action (i.e. SPX bouncing back after a dip).
Risk
• Do not over-leverage.
VIX looking real sweet now (use UVIX as proxy)For those tracking macros and true diversification, this is a potential nice play with a massive upside. Look at last year around July 17th. We are nearing this. Historically, the VIX bottoms out around 17-18 and it's sitting at 15. It doesn't stay in this region for too long. Most macros are looking extremely brittle and cracks are forming everywhere. I'd argue that the macros look worse now than in early 20202. Track this, put alerts on, use whatever technical you prefer, but this will spike and it's a massive upside. Some use UVIX as the proxy for the VIX :) Best of luck and always take calculated risks. If not, just go to your trusty bank and get 0.02% return annually!
IB EMA5 cross HP AHProj LuxAlgoGo long when the EMA 5 crosses above the EMA 65, and exit the long position when it crosses back below. This setup is combined with the harmonic pattern drawing a downward line, and it triggers when price touches the LuxAlgo support band.
$VIX.US tere might be something hiding in the water many missed We will focus on the candle formation for July 30th wednesday, July 31st Thursday, and July 32nd Friday. We will compare these dates to August 20th Wednesday, the 21st thursday and the 22nd Friday.
I have been following it since I spotted it few days ago to see if it checks out, and sofar its been playing out candle for candle. If you go to the Daily and the 4h chart and focus on the July dates you might notice something very similar to what we had this Friday, a big drop. Now that is exactly what I was hoping for personally. It dropped bellow its previous low, and in theory should bounce off the bottom limit of the 5 wave megaphone which would signal a possible sharp rise in Vix and a sharp drop in SPY furthermore validating the pattern that im speculating is going to play out by October.
VIX & Nvidia Daily Trade SetupsIn this update, we review the recent price action in the VIX & Nvidia and identify the next high-probability trade setups and price objectives to target. To review today's video analysis, click here!
Have we entered a brand new normal or is a crash coming?The market's bullish narrative rests first and foremost on the control of volatility. I won't go too much deeper into that right now, but I have been discussing with AI the current period of volatility expression and would like to highlight the following points about the current period:
4d VIX RSI has not had a 5 point increase since April 1 of this year. That's 129 days and counting.
From Claude AI (Anthropic):
The ongoing 4 day VIX RSI fall period (started April 1, 2025, now at 128+ days) is completely unprecedented since September 2003 (when VIX formula was modernized).
That's already:
More than double the longest ever previous period of in October 28, 2020 to Jan 27, 2021 (63 days)
Nearly 10x longer than the average period (13.14 days)
Over 12 standard deviations beyond the mean
The only period ever to exceed 70 days since September 2003
Key Insight:
Since September 2003, 67.3% of all fall periods recovered within 2 weeks, and 84.2% recovered within 3 weeks. The current 128+ day period represents an extreme statistical outlier in modern VIX behavior.
Additionally, if we look at the S and P week chart, we see that the gap from May 9 to May 12 is the largest ever unfilled weekly gap in the entire history of the S and P.
We are currently in a whole new normal of "bullishness", akin to the time period just before the great crash and great depression (which was the most bullish the stock market has ever been).
