GOLD ANALYSIS (1 W)To understand the psychology in Gold,
I use only two tools:
Fibonacci retracement,
Trend-based Fibonacci extension.
We will use these two tools to measure the weekly cycles.
Since November 2022, Gold has been forming a pattern that can only be explained by Fibonacci principles.
Using Fibonacci retracement for each swing high and low, you'll realize that each retracement equals around 50%.
In only one example, we see that a higher low reaches the 61.8% level, which is also acceptable.
After these retracements, the next leg of the impulsive move always reaches around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
According to these two basic technical factors, Gold should first reach around $3,800, and then aim for the $6,600 level during the next impulsive leg in the coming years.
I’m not even going to list all the reasons why Gold tends to go up over time.
Most people reading this analysis are already aware of the fundamentals behind Gold’s long-term bullish nature.
Thanks for reading.
Trade ideas
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (02/12/2025, ASIA SESSION)1️⃣ Market Overview
Gold begins the Asia session trading around $4,205–$4,207, following a controlled pullback from the $4,264.58 1H swing high. Yesterday’s decline created a clean corrective structure, now sitting below the 1H Fibonacci Golden Zone.
The market currently shows:
• Bearish corrective momentum
• Lower-timeframe exhaustion
• Untested liquidity below at 4190 → 4181
Asia session is positioned to determine whether price forms a continuation leg down toward deeper liquidity, or if a reclaim of the Golden Zone signals a bullish reaccumulation phase.
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Macro bullish trend intact above 4,150.
• Price rejected the 4,262 zone with a long upper wick — a textbook sign of exhaustion.
• RSI ~53 and flattening → market still balanced but favors retracement toward 4,150 if structure weakens.
• A daily close back above 4,230 would shift momentum toward another retest of 4,264 → 4,315.
⸻
🔹 1H Chart
• Corrective bearish structure from 4264.58 is clean and orderly.
• Price sits below the 50EMA, 100EMA, and under bearish CHoCH.
• Fresh supply formed at 4213 → 4223, aligning exactly with the 1H fib 50–61.8% zone.
• Demand zones: 4200 → 4190 → 4181.23.
• Reclaiming 4226 would be the first sign of bullish recovery.
⸻
🔹 15M–5M
• Micro-trend bearish with lower highs under 4213–4216.
• MACD still negative, no sign of bullish momentum shift yet.
• Liquidity layers below: 4195, 4188, 4181 remain untouched → magnets for Asia.
• Reversal requires BOS + strong rejection wick + MACD flip.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis (1H Swing: 4181.23 → 4264.58)
• 38.2% = 4232.63
• 50.0% = 4222.90
• 61.8% = 4213.17
🎯 Golden Zone = 4232.63 – 4213.17
(Currently below → bearish pressure confirmed)
This fib selection is ideal for sessions where momentum is corrective but the larger trend is bullish — allowing for both continuation sells AND potential reaccumulation signals.
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL Scenario (Primary Bias)
Best option as long as price stays under the Golden Zone.
Sell Zone:
• 4213 – 4223 (61.8–50% fib retest)
• Secondary: 4230–4233 (38.2 fib + structure flip)
🎯 Targets:
4200 → 4190 → 4181 → 4170
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 4238
⚡ Confirmation:
Bearish rejection wicks + BOS on 5M.
⸻
📉 SELL Breakout Setup
Trigger: Break & close below 4200
Retest: 4203–4205 failing
🎯 Targets:
4190 → 4181 → 4170
🛑 SL: Above 4213
⸻
📈 BUY Scenario (Countertrend)
Valid only at liquidity sweep zones.
Buy Zone:
• 4188 – 4181 (major 1H liquidity + previous structure low)
🎯 Targets:
4200 → 4213 → 4223
🛑 SL: Below 4174
⚡ Must see:
Strong BOS + volume shift + RSI divergence.
⸻
📈 BUY Breakout Setup
Aggressive Trigger:
4226 (clears 5M swing high)
Safer Trigger:
4233 (reclaim of fib 38.2% + structure)
Retest: 4220–4223
🎯 Targets:
4245 → 4260 → 4264.58
🛑 SL: Below 4213
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• Asia low liquidity but strong positioning ahead of London.
• No major news early, US events later may dictate trend continuation.
• DXY stable; gold reacting primarily to technical structure.
• Key watch today: 4200 support and 4226 resistance.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4213 / 4223 / 4233 / 4260
Support: 4200 / 4190 / 4181 / 4170
Golden Zone: 4232.63 – 4213.17
Break Buy Trigger: > 4226 (aggressive) or > 4233 (safe)
Break Sell Trigger: < 4200
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold remains in a controlled correction under the 1H Fib Golden Zone.
As long as price stays below 4213–4223, bearish continuation into 4200 → 4181 is the highest-probability scenario.
Only after reclaiming 4226–4233 does bullish momentum return meaningfully.
A sweep of 4181 could form the base for the next macro leg up.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias: Bearish → toward 4200 → 4181
📈 Alternative Bullish Bias: Only above 4226–4233
🎯 Key Decision Levels: 4200 & 4226
⸻
🥇 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 – PERFORMANCE 02/12/2025 🥇
📌 DAILY RESULTS
✅ BUY +40 PIPS
✅ SELL +40 PIPS
✅ BUY +20 PIPS
✅ BUY +20 PIPS
✅ BUY +470 PIPS
✅ BUY +110 PIPS
✅ BUY +100 PIPS
❌ BUY -60 PIPS (SL)
✅ BUY +70 PIPS
🎯 LIVE SESSION ▶️
✅ SELL +120 PIPS
✅ SELL +40 PIPS
✅ BUY +120 PIPS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 SWING TRADES – STILL RUNNING
🔵 BUY → +3,005 PIPS
🟣 BUY → +2,260 PIPS
🟢 BUY → +1,390 PIPS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💰 TOTAL PIPS GAIN: +1,090 PIPS
📊 12 Signals → 11 Wins | 1 SL
🎯 Accuracy: ~92%
Great start to December continues – structured entries, strong swings and solid intraday gains.
Congratulations if you profited ✅✅✅🚀🚀🚀
BUY ZONE
✅ BUY SIGNAL – XAUUSD
Signal: BUY
Entry Zone: 4201 – 4207 (marked BUY ZONE on chart)
Reason: Price has retraced into a fresh demand zone after a bullish impulse move. Current candles show slowing bearish momentum, indicating potential continuation to the upside.
Targets:
TP1: 4215
TP2: 4222
TP3:4230
Stop-Loss: Below zone at 4195
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above the demand zone.
Weekly summary and analysis 11/30/225Gold did rise as expected although it didn’t reach 4380 previous ATH. It also closed the month with a positive note. Further rise should be expected for the coming month. I will engage buying orders for the next week. Gold should at least reach 4380. If this level is broken, we can expect 4440.
As I am in holiday travel, I will not post any daily analysis. Please use this as your weekly reference if you agree with me. I will come back with my daily updates after next week.
Enjoy your trading and stay safe.
GOLD retreats slightly, market gains bets on easing cycleOANDA:XAUUSD edged slightly lower after a strong rally yesterday, as the market continued to expand expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its rate-cutting cycle as early as December. This development occurred despite positive U.S. economic data, indicating that the main support for gold now comes more from monetary policy expectations than from growth signals.
U.S. Treasury yields fell and the U.S. Dollar weakened, with the DXY index down 0.20% to 99.60, helping gold maintain its recovery momentum. Although initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 — the lowest since April — and durable goods orders rose more strongly than expected, these data had little impact on rate-cut expectations.
According to FedWatch, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting remains near 85%, a sharp increase from below 30% last week.
Geopolitical conditions, however, are shifting in a direction less supportive of gold. Signs suggest Russia and Ukraine are moving closer to a de-escalation agreement, with consultations in Geneva and positive remarks from both sides reducing the geopolitical risk premium that has supported gold for months. A Russian adviser told Al Jazeera that the U.S. plan contains “many positive aspects,” implying that diplomatic progress may be approaching.
Even so, the Fed’s policy outlook remains the dominant driver. JPMorgan Chase has reversed its forecast and now expects the Fed to cut rates in December instead of delaying until January. Michael Feroli’s economics team cited dovish comments from key Fed officials — especially New York Fed President Williams — as the reason for the shift. JPMorgan had previously expected the Fed to stay put after the September jobs report.
A new variable also attracting attention is the selection process for the next Fed Chair. Bloomberg reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett — seen as dovish — has emerged as a leading candidate. The likelihood of a more dovish Fed leadership further strengthens expectations of rate cuts, pressuring the dollar and supporting gold. Treasury Secretary Bessant said the nomination could be announced before Christmas.
Overall, markets perceive that the key question now is how quickly the Fed can implement the rate-cutting cycle. Karl Schamotta of Corpay noted that markets are leaning toward expectations of more aggressive easing. In a similar move, Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price forecast to 4,450 USD/oz, based on steady investment inflows and rising central bank gold-reserve demand.
While geopolitical risks appear to be easing, the outlook for U.S. monetary policy continues to be the primary driver shaping gold’s direction in the short and medium term.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold price is maintaining the main uptrend on the daily timeframe, still moving within the ascending channel established since August. The latest session closed around 4,147 USD/oz, trading above the short-term MA21 and approaching the technical resistance zone at 4,128 (Fib 0.236) and the major resistance at 4,216 USD.
• Structure: Series of higher lows + rising channel intact → underlying trend remains bullish.
• Key support: 3,972–4,000 USD (Fib 0.382 + channel lower boundary/MA21). If this zone holds, the bullish outlook remains valid.
• Short-term resistance: 4,128 USD (Fib 0.236). A breakout above this level opens the path toward 4,216 USD and beyond.
• Momentum: RSI rebounded from the neutral zone → buying pressure has returned but remains moderate; no clear bearish divergence.
• Conclusion: Market structure remains bullish, but confirmation is needed via a breakout above 4,128 USD to validate a new bullish cycle.
Summary:
The main trend is still upward, but the market is awaiting a confirmed breakout of the 4,128–4,216 USD zone to enter a strong bullish phase. If price falls below 3,972–4,000 USD, the plan should be reassessed due to the risk of a pullback toward the 3,846 zone (Fib 0.5).
Trading Plan
SELL XAUUSD — 4195–4193 ⚡️
Stop Loss: 4199
Take Profit 1: 4187
Take Profit 2: 4181
BUY XAUUSD — 4109–4111 ⚡️
Stop Loss: 4105
Take Profit 1: 4117
Take Profit 2: 4123
GOLD Elliott H1: waiting for ABC correction in a strong uptrendXAUUSD – Elliott H1: waiting for ABC correction in a strong uptrend
Brian – Short sell correction, prioritize Buy according to the major trend
1. Market snapshot
On H1, gold has just broken the upward Dow structure and completed 5 small waves – a common signal before an ABC correction.
The larger trend is still a very strong uptrend: gold is on track for its best year since 1979, up more than 60% in 2025, with the YTD performance gap between XAU and BTC continuing to widen.
Therefore: selling is only a short-term strategy, while the priority position for next week remains to buy on deep corrections.
2. Technical structure – Elliott H1
H1: 5 upward waves have completed → the base scenario is for the price to create a wave A down – B retrace – C down before continuing the trend.
The price area above 4,227–4,238 is a zone with selling liquidity + retesting the structure after breaking the H1 peak.
The 4,183–4,173 area (Fibo 0.618 of the most recent increase) is the main demand zone, reasonable to watch for buying in line with the trend with a good R:R.
3. Trading plan for next week
Scenario 1 – Short sell ABC correction (counter-trend)
Idea: take advantage of the A/B correction wave after 5 upward waves on H1.
Sell watch area: 4,227–4,238
SL: 4,246
Reference targets:
TP1: area 4,200–4,195
TP2: towards the Fibo/Buy zone 4,183–4,173
Note: this is a counter-trend order, only suitable for accounts accepting intraday risk, volume should be smaller than buy orders.
Scenario 2 – Buy according to the major trend at Fibo 0.618 (priority)
Idea: wait for the ABC correction to complete, buy at the "discount" price area according to Elliott and Fibo.
Buy watch area: 4,183–4,173 (Fibo 0.618 + technical support area).
SL: 4,166
Target direction:
Initially: return to the 4,220–4,230 area
Extended: depending on developments, it may aim for new highs in the context of a record growth year.
4. Fundamental context – Why prioritize Buy on deep corrections?
Gold increased +6% in November, marking the 4th consecutive month of gains.
Previously it was +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September – a very rare series of increases, reinforcing the long-term bull market story.
When an asset has risen strongly but still maintains momentum for many consecutive months, ABC-type corrections on H1 are often just opportunities for new money to participate, rather than trend reversals.
Gold: Bounce or Breakdown? Support Says BounceAs I expected in the previous idea , Gold touched the First Target($4,049) but failed to break the support zone($4,053 – $4,025).
In terms of Elliott Wave theory, given that Gold failed to break the support zone($4,053 – $4,025), we can expect bullish waves, at least in the short term.
---------------------------------------------
Minutes ago, the U.S. labor market indicators were released — including NFP, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.
Here are the actual numbers:
NFP: 119K (vs. 53K expected) — much stronger
Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.2% (vs. 0.3% expected) — weaker
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected) — higher
Gold’s Fundamental Reaction:
Today’s data is mixed in a very interesting way:
Stronger NFP = USD bullish pressure
A print of 119K signals a stronger labor market rebound, which normally puts downside pressure on gold.
But weaker wage growth (0.2%) = lower inflation pressure
This reduces the urgency for further Fed tightening, which is gold-positive.
Higher unemployment (4.4%) = economic cooling signal
This supports the idea that the economy is slowing beneath the surface — also positive for gold.
Net Result:
Gold is likely to experience initial volatility, but the combination of weaker wage inflation + higher unemployment offsets the strong NFP.
This means gold could find support after the first drop, especially if markets focus on softer inflation expectations and rising unemployment.
---------------------------------------------
I expect Gold to rise to at least $4,137 based on the above explanation.
It is also possible that Gold will form an ascending channel. One of the upside targets for gold could be near the upper line of the ascending channel(possible).
First Target: $4,137
Second Target: $4,174
Stop Loss(SL): $4,017
Points may shift as the market evolves
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
XAUUSD Another correction below 3900 is likely.Last week (November 24, see chart below), we gave a buy signal on Gold (XAUUSD), which has already hit Target 1 at $4180 and is about to hit Target 2 at $4275:
This time we move on to the longer time-frames, namely the 1W, where Gold's 2-year Channel Up suggests that another correction is likely at this point.
The reason is the 1D MA100 (black trend-line), which Gold has hit 3 times out of the 4 corrections it has had within this 2-year pattern. October's pull-back saw it pull-back just above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) but it didn't break, something that always happened during these past corrections.
At the same time, it is very likely to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (has done so 2 out of 4 times) once the 1D MA100 contact is made, which gives us a medium-term Target at $3860. That would make a perfect Higher Low on the Channel Up.
Notice also how during the past 3 corrections, the 1W RSI always hit the Support Zone. If this is get hit before the price reaches $3860, it is technically a good idea to take profit earlier.
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$Gold Technical Analysis October 2025 📊 #GOLDUSD Update
🔑 Key Zones
PRZ: $4,371 (Gold stopped nicely at $4,381!)
Local Support Zone: $4,180–$4,050
Holding this range can send Gold soaring again toward:
➡️ $4,500 → $4,750 → $5,200
If these supports are lost, → next downside zones are:
➡️ $3,950 → $3,850 → $3,750
📅 Timeframe & View
Short-term:
Gold trading between $4,180–$4,050 — key range before the next big leg.
Long-term:
ATH projection levels:
💎 $5,300 → $5,700 → $7,300 → $7,700
These correspond with critical years for the global cycle:
2025 (Oct–Nov) performance
2027
2031
2033
Every pullback in this decade-long uptrend remains a buy opportunity.
⚖️ Gold or BTC?
For the short term, my focus shifts to BTC.
But once that phase completes, I’ll move back to Gold for the long wave.
💰 Long-Term Holders
For those holding gold long-term (1 year+):
Any pullback below $3750 remains a strong buy zone for adding.
✅ Quick Recap
📍 PRZ hit: $4,371–$4,381
🛡 Support: $4,180–$4,050
🚀 Upside Targets: $4,500–$4,750–$5,200
⚠️ Downside Risk: $3,950–$3,850–$3,750
🧭 Cycle Years: 2025, 2027, 2031, 2033
💰 Focus: Short-term BTC → Long-term Gold
🧭 Personal Trading Note
I only trade Gold in the real market, and use the demo setup here purely for tracking and study.
⚓ Renzo Tip
“When the tide turns, the wise trader doesn’t fight it — he rides one wave, then waits for the next.”
🤲 Prayer
May Allah bless us with patience in the long waves, wisdom in every entry,
and reward us with clarity in both gold and time.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Road to ATH
As I predicted earlier, Gold successfully bounced to 4215.
The market closed, testing a key daily resistance.
Next week, I suggest looking for its breakout to buy.
Your confirmation will be a daily candle close above 4245.
With a high probability, the market will rise to a resistance
based on a current ATH.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD: Bulls Defend 4100! Is a Breakout to 4220 Imminent?Hello traders! XAUUSD continues to trade within a broader bullish structure, but with repeated volatility around key zones. The chart highlights how Gold has reacted multiple times to the major Demand Zone near 4,100, which has consistently acted as a strong support area. Each dip into this zone triggered a bullish response, confirming active buyers. Earlier in the structure, price formed a clear Double Top inside the Supply Zone around 4,220–4,230, which led to a strong bearish reversal and a breakdown below the trend line. After that, Gold entered a prolonged Range Phase, where the market consolidated sideways before breaking out to the upside. Recently, XAUUSD attempted a bullish continuation, but the move resulted in a Fake Breakout above the supply zone, signaling that buyers lacked the strength to maintain momentum above 4,220. This rejection pushed price downward and back below the main Trend Line, which now acts as dynamic resistance.
Currently, Gold is trading above the 4,100 Demand Zone, forming a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern — an early sign that buyers may be preparing for another upward push. As long as price holds above 4,100 and stays above local structure, the bullish scenario remains valid.
My scenario, if XAUUSD holds above the 4,100 Demand Zone, buyers may gain momentum and attempt another breakout toward the 4,200–4,220 Supply Zone, which is the next major resistance and the primary upside target. A sustained break above 4,220 would confirm bullish strength and could open the path toward higher continuation targets. However, if buyers fail to hold the 4,100 level, Gold may drop back into the previous range or retest lower support areas before attempting another reversal. For now, the bias is moderately bullish, supported by demand reactions and reversal patterns — but a confirmed breakout above 4,200 is needed for stronger trend continuation. Manage your risk!
Secrets of the Head & Shoulders Pattern for Profitable trade📘 Complete & Professional Guide to the Head and Shoulders Pattern
The Head and Shoulders pattern is one of the most reliable and powerful reversal formations in technical analysis. It typically appears at the end of an uptrend and signals that the bullish momentum is weakening.
🔹 1. What Is the Head and Shoulders Pattern?
The structure consists of three peaks:
🟦 Left Shoulder
The first peak followed by a minor pullback.
🟪 Head
The highest and central peak of the pattern.
🟩 Right Shoulder
The third peak, usually similar in height to the left shoulder but lower than the head.
🔻 Neckline
A support line drawn through the two pullbacks between the shoulders and the head.
A break below this line is the official trade trigger.
🔹 2. What the Pattern Indicates
This formation shows that the bullish trend is losing momentum and a bearish reversal may be approaching.
Left Shoulder → First sign of weakness
Head → Buyers’ final push to make a new high
Right Shoulder → Failure to create a higher high
Neckline Break → Sellers taking control
Pullback → Best entry for professional traders
🔹 3. How to Properly Identify the Pattern (Professional Criteria)
✔️ 1) A Prior Uptrend
Without a preceding trend, the reversal pattern is invalid.
✔️ 2) Three Distinct Peaks
Left Shoulder < Head
Right Shoulder < Head
Shoulders ideally near the same height
✔️ 3) Volume Behavior
Typical volume flow:
Left Shoulder → high volume
Head → moderate volume
Right Shoulder → declining volume
Neckline Break → strong volume (confirmation)
✔️ 4) Neckline Angle
Descending → stronger signal
Ascending → higher chance of false breakouts
Horizontal → neutral strength
✔️ 5) Valid Neckline Break
A strong candle closing beyond the neckline with solid volume is required.
Wicks or weak candles are not considered a true breakout.
✔️ 6) Pullback (Retest)
About 60% of the time, price retests the neckline.
This is the most professional and safest entry.
🔹 4. How to Trade the Pattern
📉 Sell Signal
Formation of the right shoulder
Neckline break
Enter after a candle closes below the neckline
or
Safer entry: enter after the pullback (retest)
🛑 Stop Loss Placement
Above the right shoulder
or
Above the last minor swing high
🎯 Take-Profit Target
Measure the height of the pattern (Distance from Head to Neckline)
Project downward from the breakout point
🔹 5. Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern
This is the bullish version of the pattern and forms at market bottoms.
Three troughs instead of peaks
Breakout above the neckline triggers a buy
Same target projection applies
This formation often starts strong uptrends.
🔹 6. Pro Tips Used by Professional Traders
⭐️ The right shoulder is more important than the left
⭐️ A taller head indicates a stronger reversal
⭐️ Volume should decrease on the right shoulder
⭐️ Higher timeframes = higher reliability
⭐️ Best entry is after the pullback
🔹 7. Common Mistakes Traders Make
❌ Entering before the neckline is broken
❌ Confusing random peaks with a structured pattern
❌ Ignoring volume behavior
❌ Setting stop-loss levels too tight
❌ Trading the pattern in a sideways market
🔹 8. Final Summary
The Head and Shoulders pattern is one of the most trustworthy reversal signals.
A professional trader should always:
✔️ Confirm the prior trend
✔️ Identify the three-peak structure
✔️ Check volume behavior
✔️ Wait for a valid neckline break
✔️ Prefer pullback entries
✔️ Set proper SL/TP
✔️ Use higher timeframes for accuracy
With consistent practice on TradingView historical charts, you can master this pattern and use it as a profitable tool in your trading strategy.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 01 - Dec 05]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD prices rose from 4,040 USD/oz to 4,226 USD/oz and closed at 4,219 USD/oz.
Gold prices continued to rise this week because the market is “betting” that the FED will cut interest rates this coming December. In addition, gold demand surged in China as inventories at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell to their lowest level in a decade.
In reality, the slowdown in private-sector job growth and limited data from the U.S. government indicate weak economic activity and subdued inflation. This will continue to fuel expectations of a FED rate cut.
Next week, the market will receive several important data releases. On Monday, attention will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, followed by the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, along with ADP private-sector employment data for October, which will be monitored more closely than usual due to the absence of NFP data. On Thursday, the U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, core PCE, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for December.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price has broken through the Downtrend line and is moving towards the next resistance zone around 4245. If it breaks this level, the gold price will approach the 4370-4380 zone. If it fails to break the 4245 barrier, the gold price will likely move sideways within the 4045-4245 range.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4276 - 4274⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4280
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4178 - 4180⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4174
Accumulated price increase - bulls expect rate cut⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Expectations of further Fed rate cuts and inflation still above target continue to underpin gold and silver, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
However, China’s physical gold demand has weakened at elevated price levels, which could weigh on the metal. According to the Financial Times, major retail chains have scaled back their presence in mainland China this year, while smaller sellers report that soaring prices and higher taxes have severely hurt sales.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price took H1 4193 breakout liquidity and reacted bullishly, still maintaining the uptrend, continuing to expect December rate cut
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4274 - 4276 SL 4281
TP1: $4260
TP2: $4245
TP3: $4230
🔥BUY GOLD zone: 4145 - 4143 SL 4138
TP1: $4160
TP2: $4175
TP3: $4190
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
4100 Zone Protected: Eyes Now on the Symmetrical Trendline📌 Yesterday’s Outlook – What Happened
In my yesterday's analysis, I highlighted that Gold turned bullish the moment price broke above resistance, shifting the entire short-term structure in favor of the buyers. I also mentioned that 4100–4110 is the key zone where bulls should stay active.
During yesterday’s session, the market validated this view:
🔹 Price dipped into 4100–4110 three separate times,
🔹 Each dip was defended aggressively,
🔹 And eventually Gold pushed into a new intraday high.
This shows clear buyer interest and confirms that the zone is currently acting as strong demand.
❓ Key Question Today
Has Gold built enough momentum to break the falling trendline of the symmetrical triangle that started from the all-time high?
This trendline is the major short-term decision area. What happens here will set the tone for the next leg.
📉 Why the Trendline Matters & What Comes Next
Gold is now pressing directly into the falling trendline of the larger symmetrical triangle structure.
This zone is crucial because:
1. It’s the first major dynamic resistance since ATH.
2. A break above it would CLEARLY shift the medium-term bias back in favor of the bulls.
3. Momentum is building — dips are being bought with consistency.
4. Buyers have defended yesterday’s lows multiple times.
If the trendline breaks cleanly, the door opens toward the 4250 zone.
That’s the next logical magnet for price.
📈 Trading Plan – Still a “Buy-the-Dip” Market
As long as yesterday’s lows remain intact, the structure stays bullish.
🟢 Smart play: Buy dips into intraday support levels
🔒 Invalidation: A break below yesterday's low
🎯 Upside focus: Trendline break → 4250
Until the market shows a reason to flip, momentum is in favor of the bulls.
🚀 Let’s see if Gold has the strength to break that trendline today.
Don't Trade These Trend Lines. Forex Gold Trading Basics
A lot of traders apply trend lines for trading and making predictions on different financial markets.
Trend line can also be an important element of price action patterns.
However, only few knows that some trend lines are better to be avoided .
In this article, I will share with you the types of trend lines that you should avoid and not rely on for making trading decisions.
Invalidated Trend Line
Even the strongest trend lines may lose their significance with time.
Before you take a trade from a trend line, make sure that it still remains valid.
If the trend line is not respected by the buyers and then by the sellers,
or by the sellers and then by the buyers, we say that such a trend line lost its significance, and it is better to not trade it.
Have a look at that rising trend line on USDCAD.
We see strong bullish reactions to that, and we may expect a bullish movement from that, once it is tested.
However, it was violated and after a breakout it should turn into a vertical resistance.
Retesting that, the price easily went through the broken trend line.
The trend line lost its significance, and it is better to not trade that in the future.
2 Touches Based Trend Line
When you are looking for a strong trend line to trade, remember that the trend line should be confirmed by at least 3 touches and 3 consequent bullish / bearish reactions to that.
Above is the example of a valid and reliable trend line.
However, quite often, newbie trade 2 touches based trend lines.
Most of the time, such trend lines are neglected by the market.
Moreover, relying on 2-touches-based trend lines, your chart will look like a complete mess .
Simply because there are too many trend line meeting that criteria.
Receding trend line
There are the trend lines that go against your trade with time while remaining valid.
Have a look at a major falling trend line on NZDCHF on a daily time frame.
You may open a swing long position from that on a daily or a day trade on intraday time frames like an hourly.
You can see that the market may easily go against your predictions for a long time, while perfectly respecting a trend line.
The price was sliding on that trend line for 6 consequent days before it finally started to grow.
Such trend lines are better to be avoided .
Make sure that a trend line and your trade have the same direction.
Trend lines can provide very safe points for trading entries. However, the trend lines are not equal and while some of them can be very profitable, some of them can lead to substantial losses.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD– Bearish Shift After ResistanceThis chart highlights a complete Smart Money flow on XAUUSD.
Market pehle sideways tha, phir strong break of structure (BOS) ke baad price ne resistance zone ko test kiya. Resistance se rejection aaya, jahan sellers ne control liya.
Ab price retest ke liye wapas same zone ki taraf ja raha hai.
Agar retest ke baad price niche break karta hai, to strong bearish continuation expected hai, jiska target support zone hoga.
Break of support se market aur zyada sellers ko attract karega, pushing price toward deeper levels.
Chart clearly show karta hai:
Sideways accumulation → Uptrend → Resistance rejection
Market structure shift → potential sell confirmation
Retest zone as a high-probability entry point
Support zone as major target for sellers
This setup gives a clean and powerful sell bias, following institutional behavior and market psychology.
Can XAUUSD extend the uptrend on Fed rate-cut hopes?Macro approach:
- Rising expectations of Fed rate cuts are supporting gold prices, with markets now assigning a roughly 85% probability to a Dec reduction amid softer US economic data.
- Ongoing US dollar weakness and signs of cooling in the US labor market are likely to keep providing a tailwind for gold on the upside.
- Softer US Treasury yields and a more dovish Fed stance, together with a slowing labor market, may continue to bolster safe-haven demand for gold.
Technical approach:
- After retesting the EMA21, XAUUSD has moved toward resistance at 4208, with a breakout above the Symmetrical Triangle suggesting scope for further bullish continuation.
- A sustained move above 4208 could open the way for XAUUSD to target the previous ATH area at around 4365.
- However, if XAUUSD fails to secure a close above the triangle breakout, the price could pull back toward the next support area around 4054.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
XAUUSD Bulls are done!! Entering bear marketGold is showing multiple bearish confluences on the daily timeframe:
🔻 Bearish Confluences
Price rejected from a key supply zone and failed to make a new high.
Momentum is weakening as candles struggle above the EMA ribbon.
Structure is shifting with lower highs forming near resistance.
The current push upward is losing volume, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
Price is sitting at a premium zone with multiple bearish signals lining up.
This is an ideal area to look for shorts — sell big, set your stop, and set-and-forget.
🎯 Fibonacci Downside Targets
Using the swing-high to swing-low Fibonacci measurement:
38.2% Target: ~4080
61.8% Target: ~3980
100% Target: 3750
These levels align well with prior market structure and liquidity pockets below.






















