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Gold hits record highs ahead of FOMC! Tech SetupGold reached fresh all-time highs near $3690 ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Its rally reflects a perfect storm of Fed dovishness and geopolitical tensions, but technical divergences suggest positioning carefully ahead of Powell's decision. The 100% Fib extension and double divergence setup makes any hawkish surprise particularly dangerous for leveraged longs. CATALYSTS DRIVING THE RALLY: Fed rate cut fully priced in (25bps expected, some 50bps speculation) US-China tensions escalate (Nvidia antitrust accusations) Stephen Miron confirmed to Fed Board of Governors (dovish member) Dollar weakness supporting precious metals Surprising correlation: Nasdaq & S&P 500 also hit records alongside gold TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance : $3,700 - Key psychological level $3,750 - Next major target $3,800 - Extended upside if dovish Support : $3,660 - First support for entries $3,610 - Major support level Previous swing lows - Stop loss reference WARNINGS: Double divergence on 4H & 1H timeframes 100% Fibonacci extension reached RSI overbought conditions Momentum diverging from price action FOMC SCENARIOS: Bullish Case : Dovish 25bps + accommodative guidance → Target $3,750-$3,800 Risk Case : Hawkish surprise or even neutral tone → Profit-taking toward $3,600-$3,500 KEY RISKS: Powell emphasising inflation persistence Resistance to aggressive cutting cycle Hawkish dot plot projections Any break below $3,660 signals deeper correction potential This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Excellent Profits on Bull runAs discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary and many past remarks: 'Quick update: My practical suggestion to keep Buying every dip has proven to be excellent recently as wherever you Buy this market, you won't regret the decision. I repeat once again, do not Sell Gold on this market at all costs. I spotted decent opportunity as before to position myself on Long-term towards #3,700.80 as I Bought #3,618.80, #3,625.80 and #3,630.80 towards #3,700.80 benchmark / all orders running with Stop's on breakeven as I maintain my #3,700.80 benchmark Target. This will be excellent addition to my already made Profits from Buying Gold on the Short-term. Well done if you followed.' I have closed in Profit many scalp-Buying orders throughout Friday's session from #3,640.80 towards #3,645.80 or more while my Medium-term Buying orders are well preserved. I have added another Buy limit last night on market opening with #3,630.80 entry point which was triggered and closed on #3,645.80 Take Profit automatically. I will keep Buying every Low's on Gold from my key entry points as long as Gold is Trading above #3,620.80 Support for the fractal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
A brief discussion on analysis and next week's trendGood weekend, is everyone having a good day today? Did you get together with family and friends? Regardless, I hope everyone enjoyed themselves. Let me briefly tell you about our situation this week and my views on the gold trend next week. Gold maintained high-level fluctuations overall this week. Although it is still in an upward channel, it can be clearly seen from the daily chart that the upward momentum has slowed down compared with the continuous rise in the previous two weeks. Another intuitive feeling is that the current space below is much larger than the space above. On Thursday and Friday, I repeatedly emphasized that only if gold breaks above 3660 can it continue to rise and reach the short-term high of 3675, or even a new high of 3690-3700. Considering that some friends find it difficult to distinguish between a genuine breakout and a false breakout, I suggested that the short-term resistance level of 3655-3665 be observed. Here I share a small piece of knowledge for your reference. In the face of a possible spike in the market, 80% of fluctuations are within the range of approximately $5-10. If you are unsure whether a resistance level has been effectively broken or a support level has been broken in the short term, you might as well leave yourself some room for maneuver and use a combination of small and large cycles to make judgments to avoid being distracted by false fluctuations. Therefore, next week we can still consider focusing on the upper resistance range of 3655-3665. If the candlestick chart entity stands firmly above the resistance area, then the market will be as we expected, and the upper space is expected to be further opened in the short term. From the news perspective, the first is an invisible piece of news that China and the United States will hold their fourth meeting, which will involve issues such as tariffs. If the two sides reach an agreement or move in a good direction this time, it may cool down the risk aversion sentiment and gold may fall. Secondly, Trump and Fed Governor Tim Cook are currently in legal proceedings. If Trump wins the case, will it reignite concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and thus interfere with gold prices? Finally, the most important thing is the Fed's clear interest rate cut basis point. The current market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut. Whether the "buy expectations and sell facts" strategy we have always emphasized can be fulfilled and trigger a drop in gold prices depends on Powell's speech attitude. If his stance this time leans towards the hawks, then the market trend will most likely be in line with our expectations. Overall, we need to be more cautious when going long on gold next week and not be too greedy for profits. There is limited upward space in the short term. Focus on the breakthrough of the 3655-3665 resistance and beware of the impact of news. At present, everything is just analysis. Specific operations can wait for Monday’s trading strategy. Finally, I wish you all a happy weekend!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP-Halson
Gold breakout risk builds with pennant patternGold is coiling within a bull pennant pattern on the hourly, pointing to the potential for a topside break and eventual retest of the record high at $3674.80. Should we close above pennant resistance, longs could be established on the break with a stop beneath for protection. $3656 looms as an initial target, given the price tagged it on no fewer than 11 occasions over the past week but only closed above it once—when the record high was set. If the price can successfully push above $3660 and hold there, it may encourage additional bulls to join in the move targeting $3674.80. An alternative setup would be to wait for a potential break and close above $3660 before initiating longs, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath for protection while targeting the record highs. Momentum indicators are providing an inconclusive message on directional risks with RSI (14) and MACD sitting in neutral territory. More emphasis should therefore be placed on price action for guidance rather than adopting a specific bias. Good luck! DS
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXcom
Gold finally finds some resistance at Fibo extensionGold has been in a massive bullish trend going back to last February, when it started to finally leave behind the $2k/oz level. There have been two pause points along the way, with bull pennants building in the final two months of last year and then for four months this year. Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole drove a parabolic breakout from that second bull pennant, and buyers have been very much in-control ever since. But this week finally saw some resistance set in that was able to pause the move. The Fibonacci retracement spans the move from June and perhaps more notably the 161.8% extension had previously provided some resistance during the breakout. The reason this matters is it helps to identify support. That 161.8% extension is at 3577, and if we do see a larger pullback around the Fed next week, that becomes a major spot of emphasis. And the 127.2% extension is also of note, as that price is confluent with the 3500 level and if we get a larger pullback, that becomes the spot for bulls to defend. And for traders that are looking for bullish exposure, that's a significant test of the move. - js
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Gold XAUUSD: Anticipating a Retracement for Continuation Long📊 Currently watching Gold (XAUUSD), price has been pushing aggressively higher in a strong bullish trend. However, the market is now reaching into areas of thin liquidity, appearing somewhat overextended. 🔎 I’m anticipating a potential retracement toward the 50% equilibrium level of the previous price swing. Within an ongoing uptrend, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement often acts as a prime entry zone 🏹 for continuation trades. ⚖️ If price pulls back and establishes support, followed by a bullish break of market structure, that would provide a high-probability opportunity. If the setup fails to materialize, then there’s simply no trade — patience is key. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is educational analysis only and not financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by fxtraderanthony
Gold – Is This Head & Shoulders a Trap or Opportunity?"Gold has formed a Head & Shoulders on the 15M chart — but is it a real breakdown or a bullish trap? Waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entry. Risk management is key." Timeframe: 15M | Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD) | Date: Sept 17, 2025 🧐 Market Outlook Gold has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern on the 15M chart. Typically a bearish sign, but here’s the catch — Gold is famous for false breakouts. If this neckline break fails, we could see a powerful bullish reversal. 📐 Setup Breakdown Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder completed. Price testing neckline around $3,665 – $3,658. Support zones: $3,658 / $3,636 / $3,604 Resistance zones: $3,701 / $3,765 🎯 Trade Plan (Standby Entry) ✅ Entry: $3,665 – $3,658 (ONLY with higher TF confirmation) ❌ Stop Loss: Below $3,636 🎯 Targets: TP1: $3,701 TP2: $3,765 ⚠️ This is a standby setup. Do not jump in without 1H / 4H bullish confirmation (engulfing or demand zone defense). 🛑 Risk Management Risk max 1–2% per trade. R:R approx 3:1 if TP2 achieved. Avoid over-leverage — Gold is volatile. 📌 Key Lessons (Case Study) Patterns need confirmation → Don’t trade 15M patterns blindly. False breakouts are traps → Especially in Gold. Discipline matters more than prediction → Wait for price action to validate. ✅ Conclusion This chart is a case study for traders: Spot the pattern ✔️ Wait for higher timeframe confirmation ✔️ Manage risk ✔️ 👉 Trading is not about catching every move, it’s about protecting capital and seizing the right opportunities. 🔖 Tags #XAUUSD #Gold #PriceAction #HeadAndShoulders #TradingPsychology #RiskManagement #MultiTimeframeAnalysis #CaseStudy #TradYoga #YogesHonale
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Tradyoga
XAUUSD – CPI Data Breakdown & Professional Insight | MMFLOW 🚀 XAUUSD – CPI Data Breakdown & Professional Insight | MMFLOW TRADING 📊 CPI Results (September) Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (In line with forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%) CPI m/m: 0.4% (Above forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.2%) CPI y/y: 2.9% (In line with forecast: 2.9%, previous: 2.7%) 📈 MMFLOW Insight – What This Means for Gold (XAUUSD) 1️⃣ Headline CPI Beat Signals Sticky Inflation The uptick to 0.4% m/m surprised markets and indicates inflationary pressures are not cooling as much as expected. This strengthens USD short-term and pushes Treasury yields higher. The initial reaction is selling pressure on gold as traders price in a more hawkish Fed stance. 2️⃣ Core CPI Stability Offers Mixed Sentiment Core CPI staying flat at 0.3% suggests underlying price pressures remain steady. This tempers extreme hawkish expectations, leaving room for gold to recover after initial volatility, especially if yields stabilize. 3️⃣ Medium-Term Implications Despite today’s stronger headline CPI, inflation remains on a downtrend y/y (2.9%), supporting the broader narrative of a Fed pivot in the coming months. Central banks (esp. PBoC & EM countries) continue to accumulate gold, which underpins long-term bullish bias. 🔑 Technical Reaction Zones (M15/M30) Resistance: 3,648 – 3,654 (Trendline/React FIB) Support / Liquidity Zones: • 3,624.33 – Key Zone Support BUY • 3,612.54 – CP/React Zone FIB • 3,599.23 – Major BUY Zone 🛠 Trading Approach After CPI Expect whipsaw price action: an initial spike lower (USD strength) followed by potential recovery if buyers defend liquidity zones. SELL Scalp: Only on strong rejection from 3,648–3,654 with tight SL. BUY Opportunity: Watch for confirmed bounce signals at 3,624 / 3,612 / 3,599. Stay nimble: CPI-induced volatility can sweep both sides before choosing direction. ✅ Summary The hotter CPI print adds near-term pressure to gold, but the overall structure and central bank demand remain supportive. Expect liquidity sweeps before a potential bullish continuation. 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time execution updates, liquidity setups, and professional market insights during this volatile post-CPI session.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Quiet Storm：Bulls vs Bears in Waiting！Under the influence of CPI and initial jobless claims data, gold rose directly to the area around 3644. The short-term rise seems exaggerated, but it did not stand firmly above 3650, and even failed to reach the intraday high of 3649. The release of bullish momentum was relatively convergent; it can be clearly seen from the short-term candlestick chart that gold showed long upper shadows many times in the short term, and the trajectory and structure began to shift downward, and tested support downward many times, which also proved that the short-selling force was gradually recovering after being suppressed. However, gold rebounded after touching the 3620-3610 support area several times during the retracement. Although the bullish momentum has declined in the short term, the bullish structure has not been completely destroyed, so the overall structure is still controlled by the bulls, and the bullish force still has enough strength to support gold. Overall, as the bulls become more cautious and the bears gradually recover, gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term, and the fluctuation range is likely to remain in the 3655-3615 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, we can strictly stick to the trading points and execute high-selling and low-buying transactions within the area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
XAU/USD technical analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical of Gold (XAU/USD) using the 4H timeframe. Let’s break down the idea behind it: --- Key Technical Insights: 1. H4 FVG (Fair Value Gap) Zone: The yellow box (~3602 zone) is marked as an imbalance area (FVG) where price is likely to retrace. Market structure suggests that price may dip into this zone to fill the imbalance before continuing upward. 2. Price Pattern (Consolidation / Pennant): Current price action shows a triangle/pennant-like consolidation after a strong bullish move. This usually indicates continuation, but first, liquidity grabs may occur. 3. Liquidity Grab (Liquidity $$$): The chart notes a liquidity sweep above resistance (~3659). This suggests that price could fake out higher first, then drop to fill the FVG zone before resuming the bullish move. 4. Target Points: Short-term downside target: 3602.487 (H4 FVG support). Upside target 1: 3659.154 (liquidity area). Upside target 2: 3699.778 (main bullish target). 5. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 57–60, showing moderate bullish momentum but not overbought. Supports the idea of a retracement before continuation. --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish (after retracement) Scenario: 1. Price may first grab liquidity (fake-out up) or directly retrace down. 2. Dip into the 3602 FVG zone. 3. Strong bounce expected → rally toward 3659 and 3699 targets. Entry Idea: Look for long entries near 3602–3610 zone (confirmation with bullish candle patterns preferred). Targets: TP1: 3659 TP2: 3699 Stop-Loss: Below the FVG zone (~3580). Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: This is a bullish continuation setup where Gold could correct down into the H4 FVG zone before resuming its larger uptrend. The plan focuses on buying dips rather than chasing highs. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
Gold Price Cross the level 3700 What Should Next Point?Gold Price consolidation These are the tailwinds boosting gold and supporting the “bullish continuation” case you laid out Softer US data (labour market, inflation, etc.) is increasing probability of Fed easing. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like gold. The dollar weakening makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, increasing demand. Also, inflation or fiscal deficits may weigh on USD strength. Where to Look for Profit-Taking (Long-Term) & Key Levels If you're holding long‐term or entering long now (around current 3689), here’s how one might structure profit targets vs risk / pullbacks: 3705–3720 Next resistance zone. Breaking above this gives validation of strength. Good minor profit-taking area. You may find more details ion the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
1
Gold – patience versus greedThe current rise in gold to the 3640–3650 range resembles a protracted consolidation rather than a confident trend. The price remains within the upward channel, but there is a risk of correction accumulating near the current values. Key levels to watch are 3629 and 3618: a break and consolidation below will open the way to 3575, where important support lies. Within the range, the market is behaving nervously – false breaks are becoming commonplace, which increases uncertainty for those who are rushing into positions. Fundamentally, pressure on gold is being driven by expectations ahead of the Fed meeting and weak dollar statistics: investors remain in “wait-and-see mode.” While the dollar is correcting in a downtrend, gold is receiving support, but without new catalysts, an upward breakout is unlikely. Rather, the market is looking for a balance of forces to determine who will lead - buyers or sellers. The tactical plan boils down to not playing guessing games. In the event of a decline below 3618, confirmation of the bearish scenario with a target of 3575 will appear. If buyers keep the price above 3640, another attempt to storm the highs is likely. At such moments, it is important not to try to outsmart the market, but to wait until it shows the direction itself. Sometimes the best trade is simply not to rush.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG report we said we would be watching the open for a support level to form below and price to attempt the red box, which worked well. It’s that red box we said needed to be watched for the break, which if happened would see us attempt higher price starting with 3468 and above that 3485-90. Again, we broke, hit our targets on the chart and the red box targets early week. We then released the NFP Report which gave the key level and the bias for the move. As you can see on that report, we managed to get almost a pip prefect move from the key level upside, nearly into the target level where we suggested the opportunity to short may come from this week So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we have Cpi and PPi midweek so there is potential for this to either range up here, or, like we suggested in the NFP Report, a tap above and a move downside. What we would ideally like to see here is support attacked, defended, a move upside in to the 3606-10 region with extension into the 3620 level and a rejection from above. So, in this scenario, due to the stretch, we’re happy to test these levels with sensible risk but due to that stretch and the mean being way below, if we break above that 3620 level, we’re happy to let it go to where it wants before looking for a reversal. We’re going to keep it simple, lets see how we open and then we’ll have a better idea of what to expect for the rest of the week. As usual, we’ll update traders through the week with our plans and trades. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
34