USNAS100 Braces for Fed Decision – Key Pivot at 24,300USNAS100 – Overview
The Nasdaq is set for a highly volatile session as markets await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later today.
Traders widely expect a 25 bps cut, but a surprise 50 bps cut—though less likely—would signal stronger confidence in stable inflation and U.S. economic health, fueling a strong bullish rally.
Even if the Fed delivers the expected 25 bps cut, the key market mover will be Chair Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot, which could reshape expectations for future easing.
Technical Outlook
📉 Bearish scenario
While trading below 24,300, price shows potential for a pullback toward 24,115.
A confirmed break below 24,115 would extend the bearish move toward 23,870 → 23,700.
📈 Bullish scenario
Stabilization above 24,115 keeps the broader uptrend intact.
A breakout above 24,300 would confirm bullish momentum, targeting 24,550 → 24,700 → 24,850.
📌 Market Context:
50 bps cut + dovish Powell → strong bullish breakout above 24,300 toward 24,550+.
25 bps cut + cautious guidance → moderate moves; price may remain range-bound or retest 24,115 before resuming higher.
Hawkish tone → deeper correction toward 23,870 or lower.
USTEC trade ideas
NAS100Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time. Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
Liquidity Voids: Where Price Runs Through Empty Space█ Liquidity Voids: Where Price Runs Through Empty Space
Big moves don’t just “happen”, they happen because either buyers or sellers step aside and let price run.
A liquidity void is what’s left behind when that happens: an area on the chart where price traded with very little volume, leaving a ‘hole’ in market participation.
This is not just another fair value gap. A typical FVG can form on normal volume during strong momentum. A liquidity void specifically signals a displacement under thin conditions, meaning the move was too easy, and price often comes back to check that area later.
█ What Exactly Is a Liquidity Void?
Think of the order book as a ladder of bids and asks. Normally, price moves step by step as orders fill at each level. But when there aren’t enough orders (low liquidity), price jumps levels and that jump is your void.
On a chart, it shows up as:
A large, one-directional candle with very small or no wicks overlapping neighbors.
Little or no volume relative to the move’s size (thin participation).
Price displacement that looks almost “too clean” — no hesitation, just a straight run.
These clues tell you price didn’t just move on heavy buying/selling, it moved through empty space.
⚪ Liquidity Void Detector
Use this free Liquidity Void Detector indicator to spot liquidity voids. It signals when the market makes a relatively sharp move on comparatively low volume, helping you spot these voids in real time.
█ Why Low Volume Matters
⚪ Not All Gaps Are Voids
A fair value gap can form on high participation, think of a breakout candle with heavy volume and institutional backing. That’s an accepted price move.
⚪ Voids Are Different
A liquidity void happens when the market skips prices because there was no one there to trade. It’s an inefficient move that the market often wants to revisit and “fill in” once participation returns.
⚪ Volume as the Filter
When volume is below its own average (or below a trend baseline), it tells you this wasn’t a “healthy” move, it was a thin-book displacement.
█ How Traders Use This
⚪ Mark the Zone
Draw the high and low of the candle(s) that created the void. This is your “inefficiency zone.”
⚪ Wait for the Return
Voids often act like magnets. Price often reverses and retests or fills the void, but it can just as easily slice through the zone once revisited, as thin liquidity offers little resistance.
█ What Research Show
Academic studies on price gaps find that immediate fills are rare, but the probability of fill rises over time. Downward voids (panic selling) fill faster on average than upward voids.
Crypto traders track CME Bitcoin gaps and report over 80–90% eventually get filled, but timing is unpredictable.
Volume-adjusted strategies outperform simple gap-filling because they focus on inefficient moves, not every gap. The key is filtering for thin participation.
█ Bottom Line
Liquidity voids are not just gaps, they are evidence of skipped prices under low participation.
They tell you where price moved “too easily,” leaving behind unfinished business.
Learn to filter for low-volume displacements, mark those zones, and watch how often price comes back to rebalance them. This turns a random candle into a predictive level, one that can guide your mean reversion trades or act as a support/resistance flip in trending markets.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NAS100Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) Performance on September Options Expiration Days (2015–2024)
Based on historical data for the Invesco QQQ ETF (which tracks the Nasdaq-100), below is the daily performance on the third Friday of September each year—the standard options expiration day. The result is "Rise" if the closing price increased from the previous trading day's close, or "Fall" if it decreased. Data is sourced from reliable financial records, including adjusted closing prices.
- 2015: Fall (-0.45%)
- 2016: Rise (+0.32%)
- 2017: Rise (+0.62%)
- 2018: Fall (-0.20%)
- 2019: Rise (+0.11%)
- 2020: Fall (-1.18%)
- 2021: Fall (-1.25%)
- 2022: Fall (-1.69%)
- 2023: Fall (-1.13%)
- 2024: Fall (-0.19%)
NAS100Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company
fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time.
Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
US100 Hits All-Time HighUS100 Hits All-Time High
Yesterday, US100 reached a new record high at 24040, confirming the strength of its bullish trend.
With U.S. inflation cooling, the market is now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, possibly starting this cycle and continuing in the months ahead.
Lower rates tend to support stocks and indices, giving the economy room to breathe after a long period of tight monetary policy.
I expect US100 to continue rising toward 24500, with intermediate targets at 24250 and 24500 in the coming week.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NSDQ100 volatility, triple-witching could exaggerate swings.Nasdaq 100 Trading Drivers
Macro backdrop:
US data came in strong:
Jobless claims fell to 231k (vs. 240k exp; prior 264k).
Continuing claims declined to 1.92m (vs. 1.95m exp).
Philly Fed survey surged to 23.2 (vs. 1.7 exp), an 8-month high.
This eased US slowdown fears and reinforced risk-on sentiment.
Equities:
Nasdaq +0.94% → new record high.
Tech/semis led: Intel (+22.8%) strongest S&P performer after Nvidia’s $5bn investment and US gov’t stake news. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3.6%.
Momentum broadened → Russell 2000 +2.5%, first record high since 2021.
Rates:
Treasuries sold off on strong data → 10yr yield +1.7bps to 4.11%, 30yr +3.4bps. Higher yields a potential headwind if sustained.
Event risk:
Trump–Xi call (9 a.m. ET): key for TikTok’s US future & broader trade tone. Risk of mixed headlines given tensions (China soybeans skip, Gaza criticism, Taiwan aid freeze).
BoJ surprise: announced unwind of $4.2bn/year ETF holdings → dampened global risk tone.
US triple-witching: options/futures expiries today → elevated intraday volatility likely.
Nasdaq 100 Trading Takeaway
Bullish momentum intact: record highs fueled by tech & semiconductor leadership.
Short-term watchpoints: Trump–Xi headlines and BoJ shift may inject volatility; triple-witching could exaggerate swings.
Key risk: rising US yields may cap upside if bond sell-off deepens.
Bias: Still risk-on / buy dips near-term, but position sizing should account for headline-driven volatility today.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24600
Resistance Level 2: 24710
Resistance Level 3: 24800
Support Level 1: 24210
Support Level 2: 24085
Support Level 3: 24940
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Key risk: rising US yields may cap upside if bond sell-off deepens.
Bias: Still risk-on / buy dips near-term, but position sizing should account for headline-driven volatility today.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24600
Resistance Level 2: 24710
Resistance Level 3: 24800
Support Level 1: 24210
Support Level 2: 24085
Support Level 3: 24940
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
NAS100 Sideways Market | Key Resistance Rejection Ahead?The NAS100 index is currently trading within a sideways market structure, holding between 23,000 support and 24,000 resistance.
Recent rejection at resistance shows sellers defending the upper range.
CHoCH and BOS patterns confirm short-term structure shifts.
If price fails to break and sustain above 24,000, a move back towards the 23,400–23,200 demand zone is possible.
Only a clear breakout above 24,000 would shift bias to bullish continuation.
This setup highlights a range-bound market where patience is key—watch for confirmation before positioning.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NAS100 - Stock market awaits Federal Reserve meeting!The indicator is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trajectory is maintained, I can expect the future to continue as it has in the past. In case of a valid breakdown, its downward path is to the specified range, which can be approached with a reward for buying.
Last week’s economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, new jobless claims rose to 263,000, above the market forecast of 235,000, signaling labor market weakness. On the other hand, the August inflation report came in hotter than expected, though most of the increase stemmed from housing costs rather than tariff pressures. Rents rose 0.34%, marking the fastest gain since December 2024, while shelter costs climbed 0.39%, the sharpest jump since January 2025. Still, real-time housing indicators suggest that prices are adjusting, which will likely be reflected in official data in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since April—a sign that markets are reacting more to labor market weakness and the prospect of Fed rate cuts than to inflation concerns.
CIBC, analyzing the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, stated that while the data came in slightly above expectations, it was not strong enough to dissuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from delivering a 25-basis-point cut next week. Ali Jafari, an economist at the bank, wrote: “There was little in the report to prevent a September rate cut. More importantly, the labor market needs support, and a weaker jobs market implies softer demand-side inflationary pressures ahead.”
On a yearly basis, core inflation held steady at 3.1%, while headline inflation rose two-tenths to 2.9%, both in line with forecasts. More troubling, however, are signs that price increases are spreading into new sectors. The report noted: “Tariff pass-through effects intensified this month, with core goods prices rising at the fastest pace since broad tariffs were imposed. Today’s report also showed the first notable increase in new car prices, suggesting that tariff impacts may now be extending to higher-ticket items, though overall car price gains remain modest.”
CIBC expects the Fed to cut rates in September and October, pause afterward, and then deliver two additional cuts in the first half of next year. The bank added: “The overall U.S. inflation picture remains notably above target, but the Fed is willing to tolerate this for now, given growing concerns about a weakening economy and a labor market showing signs of fatigue.”
Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump once again criticized the Fed in an interview with Fox News, saying the central bank “always acts late on interest rates.” He added: “We have the best stock market in history. Inflation has come down, equities are climbing, so rates should be lower.”
These comments come as the Fed is widely expected to cut rates at Wednesday’s meeting. While such a move could reduce borrowing costs in the short term, analysts caution that lower short-term rates do not necessarily translate into lower long-term yields.
Morgan Stanley now projects that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining meetings this year—an upgrade from earlier forecasts of only September and December cuts. The bank also expects three additional 25-basis-point cuts in January, April, and July of 2026.
At the same time, Standard Chartered has revised its outlook and now anticipates a 50-basis-point cut in September—double its previous forecast. The shift followed weak August jobs data showing employment growth had slowed sharply and unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since late 2020. The bank described labor market conditions as “dramatic,” noting that in just six weeks the market shifted from “strong” to “weak.” It characterized the larger cut as a form of “catch-up” to align monetary policy with economic realities.
This week is set to be pivotal for global markets, with a series of central bank decisions and key economic releases. Monday will see the Empire State manufacturing index, followed by Tuesday’s August retail sales report. On Wednesday, housing starts and building permits will be released, along with the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. The highlight of the week, however, will be the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The busy week will conclude Friday with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement.
NASDAQ 100: A Tipping Point on the 4H ChartKey Takeaway
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) is at a critical juncture, hovering at a potential inflection point around the 24,000 level. A clear breakout above or breakdown below this psychological and technical area will likely dictate the next major move for the index, presenting distinct opportunities for both bulls and bears.
Macro View
NASDAQ 100 has been in a strong rising trend channel for the medium to long term, indicating persistent investor optimism. The overall technical outlook remains positive. However, recent price action on the 4hour chart suggests a period of indecision, with the index consolidating just below its recent highs. This consolidation, combined with the emergence of a potential head and shoulders pattern, signals that a significant move is imminent.
Bearish Outlook: A Breakdown Scenario
A breakdown below the key support level at 23,800 would be a significant bearish signal. This level is crucial as it marks the lower boundary of the current consolidation zone.
• Target 1: 23,700 A move below the first key support could quickly see the index test the 23,700 level, which has acted as a previous point of interest.
• Target 2: 23,450 A break of the 23,700 support would confirm a deeper correction, with the next major target being 23,450. This level coincides with a significant volume node and previous support, making it a strong magnet for price.
Risk Management: A stoploss should be placed just above the resistance to mitigate risk in a false breakdown.
Bullish Outlook: A Breakout Scenario
The bullish case is contingent on the index successfully holding the 24,000 psychological level and breaking above the key resistance at 24,208.5.
• Target 1: 24,463 A confirmed breakout would likely propel the index toward the upper boundary of the rising channel, with a primary target of 24,463. This level represents a key extension of the current trend.
• Target 2: 24,600 A decisive move beyond 24,463 would suggest a continuation of the bullish momentum, with a secondary target at 24,600. This level aligns with a major extension and could see the index set new all-time highs.
Risk Management: A stop loss should be placed just below the support to protect against a trend reversal.
Conclusion
NASDAQ 100 is at a pivotal moment. Traders should watch for a clear break in either direction before entering a position. The 24,000 level is a critical pivot, and the ensuing price action will provide a clear roadmap for the market's next move.
NAS100 - Stock Market, After the Fed Meeting!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn ascending trend line holds, we can expect the continuation of its previous upward path, but in case of a valid break, its downward path will be smoothed to the indicated support area.
A week filled with significant events in global markets came to an end, with the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points standing out as the most important development. Although this move temporarily boosted the U.S. dollar, it failed to reverse its multi-day downtrend. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought to frame the decision as a “risk management” measure, but the dot plot indicated that policymakers hold a different outlook, keeping the possibility of further cuts by year-end alive.
Meanwhile, Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), announced that in response to President Donald Trump’s request, he would propose a rule change to replace quarterly corporate reporting with semiannual reporting. In an interview with CNBC, he said this matter has been placed on the SEC’s immediate agenda. With Republicans holding a 3-1 majority on the commission, such a change could be approved by a simple majority vote. This move would disrupt the traditional reporting and disclosure cycle, making investors wait longer intervals for corporate financial information.
In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “This change will cut costs and allow executives to focus on running companies properly instead of worrying about quarterly reports.” He also added: “You’ve heard people say China takes a 50- to 100-year perspective on corporate management, yet we run our companies quarter by quarter. That’s not good at all!” Atkins stressed that the matter remains only a proposal for now and requires review, meaning it is not yet finalized. Significant lobbying efforts are expected around this issue.
Following a week dominated by central bank decisions, markets in the coming days will shift their attention to a wide range of inflation, industrial, and housing data. Alongside these releases, the speech of Steven Miran, the newly appointed Fed member, is set to be a pivotal moment for investors.
Monday will be packed with monetary policy remarks, with Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill from the Bank of England, Rogers and Kozicki from the Bank of Canada, and Williams, Musalem, Barkin, and Harker from the Fed scheduled to speak. Nevertheless, the spotlight will be on New York, where Miran will deliver a speech at the Economic Club at noon local time. Having consistently advocated for faster and deeper rate cuts, his comments are being watched closely by markets.
On Tuesday morning, the release of the preliminary S&P Global PMI for September will coincide with Jerome Powell’s first remarks following the recent FOMC meeting. A day later, U.S. new home sales data will be published.
Thursday will bring the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy decision. At the same time, markets will receive final U.S. Q2 GDP figures, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, and existing home sales data.
The week will conclude on Friday morning with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. On the same day, the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for September will also be released, offering a fuller picture of consumer confidence.
Currently, many leading financial institutions expect further consecutive rate cuts in the Fed’s two remaining meetings of 2025. In this context, upcoming speeches from key Fed members could shape expectations. Markets are particularly focused on comments from Waller and Bowman, who previously opposed Miran’s proposal for a 50-basis-point cut. On the political side, it is anticipated that President Trump will once again direct sharp criticism at Powell, a factor that could weigh further on market sentiment.
Separately, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has fully exited its investment in Chinese automaker BYD, ending a 17-year-long position. The divestment followed a gradual reduction of shares starting in 2022, and according to Berkshire’s energy unit, the investment had fallen to zero value by the end of Q1 2025.
A company spokesperson confirmed that the position was fully closed. Meanwhile, BYD’s head of public relations expressed gratitude for Berkshire’s long-term support since 2008, noting that the ownership stake began shrinking in 2022 and fell below 5% by mid-2024. This investment is regarded as one of Berkshire’s most successful ventures in Asia.
NSDQ100 awaits Fed rate decision supported at 23940Nasdaq 100 Trading Takeaways
Fed in focus: Markets expect a 25bp cut today, though risks of larger/smaller moves exist with potential dissents on both dovish and hawkish sides. Trump’s newly sworn-in appointee Miran may push for 50bp, while Schmid could dissent hawkishly. This adds event risk and volatility for tech stocks.
Macro backdrop: Trump state visit to the UK highlights investment pledges and a potential US-UK tech partnership, which could support sentiment in large-cap tech.
Market moves:
S&P 500 (-0.13%) pulled back from record highs.
Nasdaq leadership held firm: Magnificent 7 (+0.55%) hit a new record, showing resilience even as breadth weakened.
Broader weakness evident – third straight day of more decliners than advancers.
Sector divergence: Energy (+1.73%) outperformed on higher Brent crude (+1.53%), but tech still provided upside leadership.
Implication for Nasdaq 100:
Short-term: Expect heightened sensitivity to Fed outcome – dovish signals/50bp risk would boost mega-cap tech, while hawkish dissent could trigger profit-taking.
Medium-term: Tech remains the relative outperformer, with new highs in the Magnificent 7 signaling continued defensive growth positioning despite weaker breadth.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24470
Resistance Level 2: 24600
Resistance Level 3: 24800
Support Level 1: 23940
Support Level 2: 23760
Support Level 3: 23430
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.