USTEC trade ideas
Profit-taking hits NASDAQ100: Uptrend still intact? The NASDAQ100 extended its losing streak as investors keep taking profits in tech stocks
Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom each lost around 1%. Intel slid over 7%. Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , and Tesla also posted losses. Market volume typically falls in late August, which can lead to wilder swings.
The index has now broken below 23,600 and is trading near 23,300, marking its steepest pullback since late June. The short-term trend that began in mid-July is still possibly intact, with higher highs and higher lows. However, volume on down days suggests sellers are active, which may reinforce near-term downside pressure.
NSDQ100 corrective pullback supported at 23233Tech drag dominates: The NASDAQ fell -1.46%, its worst day since Aug 1, led by the Magnificent 7 (-1.67%). Nvidia (-3.5%) was the biggest loser and set the tone for semis and AI-linked names.
Index divergence: Despite the cap-weighted S&P falling (-0.59%), the equal-weighted S&P rose (+0.45%), showing the selloff was tech-concentrated rather than broad. That highlights rotation into cyclicals/defensives away from mega-cap tech.
Stock specifics:
Intel (+6.97%) surged on the $2bn SoftBank stake, bucking the chip weakness.
Home Depot (+3.17%) outperformed on earnings, showing consumer/housing resilience—positive for broader equities but less relevant for tech.
Rates backdrop: 10yr UST yields fell -2.7bps to 4.31% after S&P affirmed the US AA+ rating. Lower yields normally support growth/tech, but today’s positioning and rotation outweighed rate relief.
Fed/policy watch:
Treasury Sec. Bessent hinted at Fed Chair decision timing (Powell’s replacement watch).
Markets remain priced for a jumbo cut in September, with focus shifting to Jackson Hole this week—key risk event for Nasdaq given rate-cut sensitivity.
Geopolitics: Noise around Ukraine security guarantees and Switzerland’s peace-talk stance was not market-moving for tech.
Relevance for NASDAQ100 traders:
Yesterday’s selloff was tech-specific, not broad market weakness, implying concentration risk in mega-caps.
Intel’s rally shows idiosyncratic catalysts can break correlation.
Watch Jackson Hole & Fed rate-cut pricing → likely main driver for Nasdaq100 short-term.
Rotation risk: If the equal-weighted S&P keeps outperforming, the Nasdaq may underperform further unless big tech regains leadership.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 23710
Resistance Level 2: 23950
Resistance Level 3: 24200
Support Level 1: 23233
Support Level 2: 23110
Support Level 3: 22985
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Market Sentiment Pulls Nasdaq to the 23,200 SupportOn the daily chart, Nasdaq’s RSI has pulled back to the 50 neutral zone, providing potential support for the recent correction. Price action is holding above the 23,200-support, while the 4-hour RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions.
If 23,200 continues to hold, Nasdaq may recover to test 23,500, 23,700, and potentially 24,100. A confirmed move above these levels could signal renewed momentum toward the 25,000-record.
A clean hold below 23-200 may extend the decline towards key support levels between 22,900-22,700 for another long-term bullish positioning opportunity, or deeper downturn risks.
Key Events in Sight:
- FOMC Minutes (Today)
- Fed Speech (Friday)
- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USNAS100 | Geopolitical Tensions & Fed in Focus – Pivot at 23690USNAS100 Overview
Geopolitics dominates before the Fed takes the stage.
Putin’s position remains that Ukraine should cede all territory Russia has occupied — and even areas it has failed to capture in more than three years of fighting. This has been firmly rejected by Zelenskiy and European leaders, who will stand alongside him in Washington when he meets Trump later today.
Technical Outlook:
Price looks set to stabilize below 23690, which would extend the bearish trend toward 23435 and 23295.
A 4H close above 23690 would shift the outlook bullish, targeting 23870.
Pivot: 23690
Support: 23550, 23435, 23295
Resistance: 23870, 24090
NAS100 dropped on 1.32% on August 19NAS100 dropped on 1.32% on August 19 as market participants are waiting for Powell's key rate comments
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 dipped on August 19, led by tech stocks, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on interest rates at the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug. 21-23). Analysts, including James Cox of Harris Financial Group, suggest markets are bracing for a possibly hawkish stance from Powell. Interest rate futures indicate two 25 bps cuts this year, starting in September. Concerns also rose over AI stocks after OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman called them a bubble in a recent "The Verge" interview.
The price continued to drop during Asian and early European trading hours and reached the SMA200 on 4-h chart. This moving average is a traditionally strong support. The further rebound towards 23,500.00 level is expected with a final target of 23,700.00.
Could elevated valuations start weighing heavily on USTEC?
US equities fell sharply under pressure from stretched AI valuations. OpenAI CEO Altman cautioned that investors are overly excited about AI, warning that valuations have become “out of control.” Adding to the drag, Nvidia shares tumbled as China mandated domestic AI chips account for over 50% of local data center usage, raising concerns over export reliance. Markets now turn their focus to Fed Governor Waller’s speech and the FOMC minutes for clues on the rate-cut outlook.
USTEC is sliding lower, approaching the support at 23300. The narrowing gap between EMA21 and EMA78 points to a possible shift toward bearish momentum. If USTEC breaks below 23300, the index could decline further toward the next support at 23000. Conversely, if USTEC climbs back above both EMAs, the index may gain upside traction toward the resistance at 23700.
NASDAQ: 10:1 R/R Setup - One More High Before Major CorrectionSharing my current outlook on NASDAQ with a high-probability setup offering exceptional risk-reward. 📊
**🎯 The Setup:**
I'm expecting one more push to new all-time highs from the yellow line around 23,000. This would offer a **10:1 risk-to-reward ratio** with the stop loss just below the recent low. 🚀
**📍 Yellow Line Logic:**
This level represents my experience-based zone just shy of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. I've observed that when price reaches the 0.786 level, it tends to result in a complete reversal more often than not. This yellow line sits in that "sweet spot" where buyers typically step in. 🎯
**📈 Chart Structure Support:**
The overall chart pattern suggests a higher probability of making new highs rather than a complete reversal from current levels. The structure is bullish despite the recent pullback. ✅
**🔄 Bigger Picture Scenario:**
After the anticipated new high, I expect a significant retracement back toward the previous high (red line area). However, this would likely be just a healthy correction before the bull run resumes for the remainder of the year. 📉➡️📈
**🧠 Key Insight:**
Sometimes the best trades come when the market gives you that "one more push" setup. The risk is small relative to the potential reward, making this a compelling opportunity if the setup materializes. 💡
📈 **This trade setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1.** Without including fees, the breakeven win rate for this trade would be approximately 9.09%. Knowing these figures in advance helps me avoid emotional trading. 🧠
💡 **Pro Tip**: If you often find yourself trading based on emotions, I recommend doing this type of pre-planning and quantifying your setups before execution — it can be a simple yet highly effective improvement. ✅
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Bearish drop?US100 is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 23,546.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss: 23,936.40
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 22,986.60
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) potential reversal The NASDAQ 100 (NAS100 ) on the H4 timeframe it appears to be undergoing a period of consolidation within a defined range. As of approximately 20:46 (based on the timestamp), the index is trading around 23,383.6, having experienced a decline of -1.41% or 334.3 points.
Key Observations:
Recent Downtrend and Support Zone : The price action shows a clear downtrend leading into the current consolidation. The highlighted yellow zone around the 23,100 - 23,300 level seems to be acting as a support zone, preventing further immediate declines.
Resistance Zone : Conversely, an upper red zone around the 23,800 - 24,000 level is acting as resistance, capping the upside for the time being.
Range Bound Movement : The price is currently oscillating between these two defined zones, indicating a period of indecision in the market.
Potential Reversal Area : The fact that the support zone is holding after a significant down move suggests the possibility of a short-term reversal if buyers step in with conviction. However, this needs confirmation with a break above the resistance zone.
Breakout Scenarios :
Bullish Breakout: A sustained break above the 24,000 level could signal a continuation of an upward trajectory, potentially targeting previous highs.
Bearish Breakdown : Possibly, a break below the 23,100 level would likely confirm further downside pressure and could lead to testing lower support levels.
Technical Considerations :
Traders and investors should closely monitor price action within these zones. Look for confirmation signals such as strong candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, bearish engulfing) or increasing volume on breakouts to gauge the strength and validity of potential moves.
Conclusion :
NASDAQ 100 is currently in a critical juncture. The consolidation within a potential reversal zone after a downtrend warrants careful observation. The direction of the next significant move will likely be determined by whether the support or resistance zone is broken decisively.
NASDAQ – Is the Top Finally In?In my past two NAS analyses, I argued that the index was overstretched and vulnerable to a deep correction. Even the fact that from the April bottom to mid-August it surged nearly 50% should have raised big red flags — that kind of move rarely sustains without a meaningful pullback.
At this moment, the technical picture has shifted significantly. The index has broken two critical levels:
1. The ascending trendline drawn from the recent low.
2. The horizontal support defined by the previous all-time high.
Losing both of these supports in quick succession suggests the bullish momentum is fading and a top may already be in place.
If this scenario unfolds as expected, selling pressure could intensify in the coming sessions. My first downside target stands in the 22,700 zone, with further weakness possible if the correction develops into a broader risk-off cycle.
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Nasdaq Retest of Previous Highs - REPOST📈 NASDAQ Outlook
The NASDAQ has broken through its previous high, and now the key level to watch is whether price action confirms this zone as new support.
If buyers step in and hold this level, we could see a continuation to the upside—with momentum potentially driving us toward the downward trendline.
Patience is key here as we wait for confirmation before the next move.
1 hour chart After take out at new ATH last week and break trough the 23700 level i think we are in a desending chanel and the breakout will be up.
The market has show alot of support around 23700 level for days now and after a strong elliot vawe 5 up it would go down alot faster if the bullsih trend was over.
Think we have 123 elliot or 12345 elliot vawe forward us now as long as we break out the desending chanel as i think!
Buy = 23700
Target Phase 1= 23900
Target Phase 2= 24000
Stoploss = 23600
Also fib retracment from the top stop at 0.618 directly wich is another strong support
Rsi 14= around 50 level and on 1 hour chart neutral and looks bullsih there to!
NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ):The index remains bullish in the long term, while showing a short-term bearish correction on the hourly timeframe. Currently, it is trading near 23,700.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 23,650 and holds, it may extend the decline toward 23,550. A further break could trigger deeper corrections.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to break and sustain above 23,770, it could push the index higher toward 23,800, and with continued bullish momentum, a retest of the previous high at 23,950 would be likely.
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - NASDAQ 400K - DOW 200K...In this major market update, I’m sharing fresh analysis that signals the beginning of a powerful new uptrend.
Years of excessive money printing have fueled what appears to be a massive incoming bull market—one that could surpass all previous trends in strength, thanks to the extraordinary liquidity injected into global markets.
We may be entering a modern-day “Roaring 20s 2.0,” but eventually, this cycle will run its course.
For now, the key is to capitalize on the opportunities ahead by making well-informed decisions.