DAX trade ideas
Splash Down Water Park Ride Incoming!DAX might be ready to take the water park splash down ride soon.
Since the very large bounce recovery post Trump tariffs, it made a higher high, but since then it is moving limply and there is plenty of "trap door" risk here.
Current area looks like a continuation pattern.
We might get some impulsive splash down action soon.
I've been calling this one for a while - see linked thread.
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
DAX Triangle giving a strong Buy Signal.2.5 months ago (see chart below), we issued a buy signal on DAX (DE40), which hit our 24600 Target within 2 weeks:
This time the price finds itself at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of a 3-month Triangle. Every Bullish Leg of this pattern was confirmed after the price closed a candle above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), something the index did 2 days ago.
As a result, we turn bullish again here on DAX, targeting the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern at 24400.
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GER40: Technical OverviewGER40: Technical Overview
GER40 broke out and is still holding above the support zone near 23,700 indicating for a bullish momentum that is growing further.
GER40 remains in a long-term uptrend.
Resistance Levels:
24040
24240.0
Support Zone around 23,700 is a key pivot area.
If price breaks below the pattern, we could see a pullback toward 23,400, which was last month’s low. But if momentum holds, the upside targets remain valid.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Bearish reversal signal on H4 chart?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support, which has been identified as a swing low support.
Pivot: 23,978.05
1st Support: 23,407.17
1st Resistance: 24,225.79
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Germany 40 – Bearish Outlook with ECB and US CPI in Focus🔥 Steal Profits with the Thief Strategy: Germany 40 CFD Bearish Setup 🚨
Asset: Germany 40 Index CFD (DAX)Trade Type: Swing/Scalping (Bearish Pending Order Plan)Date: September 11, 2025Current Price: 23,632.95 (-0.36% daily change)
💰 The Thief Strategy: Layered Precision for Profits
The Thief Strategy is all about stealing profits with disciplined, layered sell limit orders. By targeting the 23,500 support zone breakout, we capitalize on bearish momentum with precision. This setup is perfect for scalpers and swing traders looking to ride the wave of macro-driven volatility. Set your TradingView alarms to catch the breakout! 🚨
🔹 Why This Works?
Technical Edge: Price rejection at 23,800 + overbought RSI signals a potential drop.
Macro Triggers: ECB policy (11 Sept) and US CPI data could fuel bearish moves.
Sentiment: Fear-driven hedging and sector rotation (defense/energy outperforming tech).
📊 Market Snapshot (11 Sept 2025)
Daily Change: -85.50 (-0.36%)
52-Week Range: 18,382.26 - 24,639.10
1-Year Performance: +29.38%
😨 Sentiment & Fear/Greed Index
Retail Traders: 🟡 Cautious
Mixed earnings: Siemens Energy (+4.57%), Rheinmetall (+3.29%) vs. SAP (-2.87%), Deutsche Telekom (-2.16%).
Eyes on ECB policy and US CPI data.
Institutional Traders: 🟠 Neutral to Slightly Bearish
Defensive moves in chemicals/financials.
Higher put/call ratios in options show hedging.
Fear & Greed Index: Fear
Elevated volatility from ECB/US data uncertainty.
Bonds slightly outperforming stocks short-term.
📉 Fundamental & Macro Score
Economic Data:
German Inflation (Aug 2025): 2.2%
Interest Rate: 2.15%
Unemployment: 6.3%
Score: 6/10 (Neutral)
Corporate Performance:
Top Gainers: Siemens Energy, Rheinmetall
Top Losers: SAP, Deutsche Telekom
Score: 5/10 (Mixed)
Global Risks:
EU tariff pressures (India/China).
French political uncertainty.
Score: 4/10 (Slightly Negative)
🐻 Overall Market Outlook
Short-Term: Bearish
Resistance at 23,800; downside risk if ECB delays rate cuts or US CPI spikes.
Medium-Term: Neutral
YoY +27.76%, but momentum slowing.
Q3 2025 forecast: 23,412.92 (Trading Economics).
🎯 Thief Strategy: Bearish Layering Plan
🔹 Entry (Pending Sell Limit Orders):
Layer 1: 23,650
Layer 2: 23,600
Layer 3: 23,550
Layer 4: 23,500 (Key Breakout Level ⚡)
Pro Tip: Add more layers based on your risk tolerance. Confirm entry after a 23,500 breakout. Set a TradingView alarm at 23,500 to stay sharp!
🔹 Stop Loss (SL):
Place at 23,750 after breakout confirmation.
Note: Dear Thief OG’s, adjust SL based on your strategy and risk. I’m not your boss—manage your risk, steal the profits! 💸
🔹 Take Profit (TP):
Target 23,300 (strong support + oversold zone + potential bear trap).
Note: Escape with your loot at your discretion. My TP is a guide—take profits at your own risk!
🔹 Risk Management:
Risk 1-2% per trade.
Use trailing stops during high-volatility events (e.g., ECB, US CPI).
Avoid new trades during major news to dodge whipsaws.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 23,800 (immediate), 24,100 (strong).
Support: 23,500 (breakout zone), 23,300 (target), 23,200 (deeper support).
Breakout Confirmation: Daily close below 23,500 signals bearish continuation.
🌍 Related Pairs to Watch ( AMEX:USD )
FX:EURUSD ($): Bearish DAX may align with a stronger USD if US CPI surprises. Watch 1.1578 (current), support at 1.1254.
FX:GBPUSD ($): Bullish at 1.3581; DAX drop could pressure GBP on risk-off sentiment.
FX:USDJPY ($): Bearish correction at 144.09; monitor for risk-off flows impacting DAX.
📰 Key Events to Monitor
ECB Announcement (11 Sept): Delayed rate cuts could push DAX lower.
US CPI Data (11 Sept): Higher inflation may trigger global risk-off moves.
Sector Rotation: Defense/energy (e.g., Rheinmetall) outperforming tech (e.g., SAP).
🚀 Why This Setup Steals the Show
The Thief Strategy is built for precision and adaptability. Layered entries at 23,650–23,500 let you exploit the breakout with confidence, backed by macro signals (ECB, US CPI) and technical rejection at 23,800. This setup is designed to maximize engagement and visibility for scalpers and swing traders. Let’s steal those profits together! 💰
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#DAX #Germany40 #ThiefStrategy #Bearish #TradingView #Scalping #SwingTrading #ECB #USCPI
GER40 Loading the Break – Big Move Coming!Hey guys,
I’ve analyzed the GER40 index for you. Right now, it’s too early to drop a clear target—the price is stuck in a consolidation zone. It’s either gonna break down or break out. Once that move happens, I’ll share the exact target right away.
For now, just waiting on the breakout.
Also, every single like from you guys is what keeps me motivated to keep sharing these analyses. Big thanks to everyone supporting me with those likes.
Germany 40 Index – Range Trade or Something More?It has been a nervy week for the Germany 40 index as it has struggled for direction ahead of today’s ECB rate decision, which is due at 1315 BST, and then the press conference, led by ECB President Lagarde, which starts at 1345 BST.
While general sentiment has been boosted by US inflation data (PPI) supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, helping to lift the Germany 40 up to a weekly high of 23887 (Wed), issues related to Ukraine, including a violation of Polish airspace by a Russian drone leading to it being shot down, and the start of discussions between the US and EU regarding the potential for new tariffs on China and India, two big export markets for German companies, for their continued purchases of Russian energy, have weighed on rallies, which resulted in lows being seen at 23582 this morning (0700 BST).
Now, looking forward, Germany 40 traders may be focused on the ECB who are fully expected to keep interest rates unchanged, which could shift the focus for volatility to what Madame Lagarde says regarding the potential for one more 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in December, economic growth, the outlook for global trade and the sustainability of European government debt, particularly in France.
Any surprises here, combined with the US CPI release at 1330 BST could decide where the Germany 40 moves into the weekend, ensuring that monitoring the technical outlook could also be helpful for traders.
Technical Update: Range Trade or Something More?
Since early July, when the Germany 40 index hit its all-time high of 24639 on July 9th, it hasn’t shown a clear upward or downward trend. As shown on the chart below, prices have mostly moved sideways, staying between the resistance level at 24639 and the support level at 23378, which was the low on August 1st.
It is impossible to say when this type of sideways price movement will end. A strong close above the resistance level or below the support level would suggest that prices may start moving more steadily in the direction of the break.
That said, with recent price weakness and a decline toward the August 1st low of 23378, traders may be wondering whether this could lead to a break lower from the sideways range, or if support will hold again, keeping the range intact.
So, let’s look at what may be the key support and resistance levels to watch
Potential Support Levels:
One could argue that the August 1st low of 23378 is the first key support to watch. If prices close below this level, it could signal a more extended phase of weakness, with the next potential support being 23013, which is the low from June 19th.
While there is no guarantee of further weakness, a close below 23013 could trigger a deeper decline toward 22420, which marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the price strength from April 7th to July 9th, possibly further.
Possible Resistance Levels:
While the July 9th high of 24639 remains the key resistance level marking the upper boundary of the current sideways range, if the August 1st low of 23378 continues to hold and sees a rebound, traders may want to watch for earlier resistance levels that could come into play before opening possibilities of moves toward the top of the range.
As shown in the chart above, the Bollinger mid-average is currently declining and sits at 24006. This level may act as the immediate resistance.
If prices manage to close above 24006 in coming sessions, it could open the door for a retest of the July 9th high at 24639.
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DAX potential breakout immanent While most other major indices have been busy breaking records, the DAX has not been doing much, instead continuing to consolidate its big gains from the past when it was outshining other markets. But with sentiment remaining positive towards European and global markets, the risks remain skewed to the upside, especially given that the long-term support area of around 23,500 is holding firming. The index needs to clear short-term resistance in the 100-point band between 23,800 to 23,900 to potentially trigger follow-up technical buying above that zone. That's the bullish signal I am certainly waiting for now.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DAX bullish consolidation support at 23950The DAX remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential oversold rally within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 23400 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 23400 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
23950 – initial resistance
24116 – psychological and structural level
24250 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 23400 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
23250 – minor support
23094 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Dax40 holds above 23950. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX40 sideways consolidation support at 23400The DAX remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential oversold rally within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 23400 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 23400 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
23950 – initial resistance
24116 – psychological and structural level
24250 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 23400 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
23250 – minor support
23094 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Dax40 holds above 23950. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 23,625.24 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 23,566.97 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GER30 (DAX 40)GER30 (DAX 40) Bullish Outlook
The DAX 40 is showing steady strength, with buyers stepping in around 23,500. Momentum is building, and if it pushes past 23,800, we could see it testing 24,000 soon.
Pullbacks to support might be great spots to consider entering long, keeping an eye on how the market reacts. Overall, the vibe is bullish and the trend is looking healthy.
GER30 H4 | Bullish reversal from major supportGER30 is reacting off the buy entry at 23,513.79, which is a multi swing low support and could reverse from this level to the take profit.
Stop loss is at 23,216.12, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 23,835.14, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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