$LINK – PREMIUM PUMP, DISCOUNT DUMP? THE SQUEEZE SETUP EXPLAINEDLINK – PREMIUM PUMP, DISCOUNT DUMP? THE SQUEEZE SETUP EXPLAINED
Traders,
LINK — and likely the broader crypto market — is setting up for a premium squeeze that turns into a discount dump.
ANALYSIS
On Binance Perpetuals you can see longs piling in near $24 while price stalls → CVD pushes up, price doesn’t. That’s buying with no progress = bearish absorption with CVD non-confirmation. Check the data here ibb.co
Aggregated Spot CVD (all exchanges) is flat. No real spot demand → only leveraged longs propping up price. Check the data here ibb.co
Price is now inside the Golden Pocket retracement zone. High-probability reaction area where strong hands fade late longers.
Measuring swing low → swing high (06 Sep – 13 Sep), price is right at the Value Area High (VAH). This is the edge of acceptance.
Confluence: we’re also tagging the upper Anchored VWAP band (green line) from both the swing high and the swing low.
→ Why this matters: Anchored VWAP tracks the average cost basis of participants from a chosen pivot. When the swing low → high AVWAP band and the swing high → low AVWAP band overlap in the same zone, it creates double confluence: longs from the bottom see this as “expensive” and reduce risk, while shorts from the top defend their break-even. Historically, these overlaps act as strong rejection zones unless fresh spot demand breaks through.
MY TAKE
Expecting rejection at $24 and a move back toward $21 (blue AVWAP test). I think - based on data - that we might move even lower.
Setup = trapped longs at premium + no spot demand + strong confluence of VAH, Golden Pocket, and dual AVWAP resistance.
Invalidation = acceptance above $25 with spot CVD joining the move.
