RIG has a Date with $35 and this is Why
Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells across the world. If we look at the chart, every single matrix using the Ichimoku Cloud tells me that the stock is headed lower. It is trading under the Ichimoku Cloud, it is under the 9 and 26 period moving average, and both the past and future look weak. Combine this fact with a trader who bought 12,000 plus May 37 Puts for $.70. I jumped on this trade for $.77 and almost hit Target #1 at $.90, lets break down this trade.
The Trade: I bought the RIG May 37 Puts for $.77
Risk: $77 per 1 lot
Targets: $.90, $1.10, $1.30 and $1.50
Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Short
Gamma: Long
Theta: Short
Vega: Long.
Trade ideas
Transocean Inc RIG sitting on supportPerhaps RIG will hold here and gain traction for a move higher to its loosely correlated crude oil comparison.
A little chart background: Crude Oil had jumped far ahead of RIG last year and then late last year RIG jumped up and closed the gap between the two markets. Since then the two markets, RIG and Crude, have been waffling around.
I see a decent, rising, long term support zone for RIG shares and now that RIG is solidly in the middle of that zone and crude oil is making a decent rally off the lows set earlier this month, maybe RIG has a low-risk chance for a move higher from here.
Risk 3 average daily ranges and target a 3 average range rally. The probability is 75% or more, which is just my odds calculation from this kind of setup.
Cheers.
Tim 12:53PM EST, Wed Jan 22, 2014
Long Term RIG Investment IdeaI'm generally a longer term investor. I like to invest in sound companies with good cash-flow and balance sheets that I don't believe are going anywhere in the next 5 to 10 years. I wait for these companies to bottom then I wait for strength and signs of a trend reversal, then I look for a level where first support will likely be. I think the $44 dollar level will act as support for a while in RIG. Now that it is being added to the S&P-500, it will become more of a spotlight stock. Strength was confirmed on the gap up.
I like the looks of entering a long term long (think one year+) at the 46.8 level. This level is where the gap and 50% retracement from the September low to the October high meet. For targeting, I throw on a Fib Extension on the hypothetical bottoming buy point that I'm looking at, and I look for key levels on the way up. This is where retracement, extension, and price support/resistance levels come together.
While I may or may not sell at the levels. They provide good psychological levels for when your stock starts to pull back you can look at your chart and think, "Oh yeah, resistance. It makes sense for it to start going down here." In general, when I try to get cute and sell resistance to buy support later, I generally end up selling and miss the re-entry. So I normally just keep a smaller position and ride the ups and downs.
Ultimately I think this can hit $69 over the next year or so especially if activist Carl Icahn starts to throw his weight around. His cost basis, by the way is around $53.
So I like the technical levels, the risk:reward ratio, and the fundamental of both the company (DeepWater Horizon behind them, solid balance sheet, turning around) and the stock (S&P-500, Carl Icahn).





