Long Term RIG Investment Idea

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I'm generally a longer term investor. I like to invest in sound companies with good cash-flow and balance sheets that I don't believe are going anywhere in the next 5 to 10 years. I wait for these companies to bottom then I wait for strength and signs of a trend reversal, then I look for a level where first support will likely be. I think the $44 dollar level will act as support for a while in RIG. Now that it is being added to the S&P-500, it will become more of a spotlight stock. Strength was confirmed on the gap up.

I like the looks of entering a long term long (think one year+) at the 46.8 level. This level is where the gap and 50% retracement from the September low to the October high meet. For targeting, I throw on a Fib Extension on the hypothetical bottoming buy point that I'm looking at, and I look for key levels on the way up. This is where retracement, extension, and price support/resistance levels come together.

While I may or may not sell at the levels. They provide good psychological levels for when your stock starts to pull back you can look at your chart and think, "Oh yeah, resistance. It makes sense for it to start going down here." In general, when I try to get cute and sell resistance to buy support later, I generally end up selling and miss the re-entry. So I normally just keep a smaller position and ride the ups and downs.

Ultimately I think this can hit $69 over the next year or so especially if activist Carl Icahn starts to throw his weight around. His cost basis, by the way is around $53.

So I like the technical levels, the risk:reward ratio, and the fundamental of both the company (DeepWater Horizon behind them, solid balance sheet , turning around) and the stock (S&P-500, Carl Icahn).
Update: Bought RIG at 47.08, it dropped below yesterday's low and quickly recovered, taking that as my signal to entry.
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