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Silver: A Sell Signal?COMEX: Micro Silver Futures ( COMEX_MINI:SIL1! ) What happened to the silver market? A previous all-time-high (ATH) record of $49.95 per ounce was set on January 17, 1980, and stood for 45 years until silver broke $50 in October 2025. Since then, silver prices kept climbing nonstop and setting new ATH records almost daily. Last Friday, November 28th, silver reached $56.86. COMEX Silver Futures ( AMEX:SIL ) locked in an impressive 98% return year-to-date, which makes silver the top performer across all major asset classes year to date. The strength of silver is supported by a confluence of factors including inflows into bullion-backed ETFs and expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Investors rotated assets out of stock amid recent market weaknesses, benefiting the safe-haven assets gold and silver. In addition, gold purchases have slowed in recent months due to the record high prices. Some investors may choose silver as an alternative hedging asset. However, a key metric suggests that the tide is about to change. A Refresher: In my writing published on April 28th, I introduced the Gold-Silver Ratio, a financial term that measures the relative value of gold to silver. The Gold-Silver Ratio may be used as a buying or selling signal. When to Buy Silver : A high Ratio, typically above the 95:1 mark, suggests that silver is undervalued relative to gold. This is often interpreted as a buying signal for silver. • Recalling that in the April 28th writing, we explored the idea of buying silver at $33 when the Ratio stood at 100. Silver prices went up 72% since then. When to Sell Silver : When the Ratio is low, say around 80:1, it indicates that silver is relatively expensive. Investors might consider selling silver and buying gold. • As silver caught up with gold with its recent rally, the Ratio is declining all the way down to 74. This is a level indicating silver is very expensive relative to gold. From a mean-reversing point of view, the Ratio may rebound back to the 80-90 range soon. In my opinion, gold could show more strength compared to silver in the new year. • Global central banks have slowed gold purchases recently. Gold getting expensive did not cause the pause. Annual budget depleting may be a more plausible reason. A new year comes with new budget, and I expect central bank buying to resume in 2026. • Silver is part precious metal and part industrial metal. Global GDP in 2026 is projected to slow to 2.9% to 3.1%, with downside risks from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, according to the IMF. Industrial use of silver could slow as well. • Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. The stock market could rally again, causing investors to rotate money out of safe-haven assets. In my opinion, gold could stand its ground better than silver, with central bank purchases serving as a key support. In this scenario, the Ratio rises because silver falling faster than gold. Trade Setup with Micro Silver Traders could apply the insights from the Gold-Silver Ratio with trading strategies using COMEX Micro Silver Futures ( AMEX:SIL ). There are a number of reasons why shorting silver makes sense: • Traders expect mean-reversion of the Gold-Silver Ratio will occur soon. • Investors expect Fed rate cuts to be bullish for stocks and bearish for precious metals. • Traders with portfolio of spot silver or silver ETF want to hedge their positions. The big advantages of using futures contracts are capital efficiency and leverage. Micro Silver contracts have a notional value of 1,000 troy ounces of silver. With Friday settlement price of $57.455, each January contract (SILF6) has a notional value of $57,455. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $4,000 at the time of writing. This suggests a built-in leverage of 14.4 (= 57455/4000) for futures contracts. By putting a deposit equivalent to 70 ounces, traders could gain the full exposure of 1,000 ounces of silver. If silver prices move down by 10%, a short position in Micro Silver futures would gain 144% (= (57455*0.1) / 4000). Micro silver futures (SIL, 1000 oz) and standard-size silver futures contracts (SI, 5000 oz) contracts together form a deep liquidity pool. On November 28th, SI had trade volume of 109,967 contracts and an open interest (OI) of 155,222 contracts. SIL had volume and OI of 79,015 and 14,900 contracts, respectively, according to data from CME Group. To hedge the risk of rising silver prices, a trader could set a stoploss on his short-silver order. For illustration, a short order is executed at 57.455 with a stoploss at 59.0. If silver goes up 10% to $63.2, the maximum loss will be $1,545 (= (59-57.455)*1000), well within the margin account balance of $4,000. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
GOLD (XAU-GC) BUY PLAN📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment for GOLD remains strongly bullish. One of the key drivers is the aggressive accumulation by global central banks. Recession concerns and persistent inflation fears continue to position gold as one of the most attractive safe-haven assets. 📈 Technical Analysis Price has completed the expected accumulation phase and broke out strongly from the accumulation range. This former range has now turned into a clear demand zone. Price has pulled back into this zone again and is currently testing the $4060 level. 📌 Game Plan The $4060–$3900 zone is my primary buy zone. I will continue accumulating within this range. My first target is $4250, followed by $4400, which aligns with new all-time-high expectations. If price closes below $3900 on the daily, this idea becomes invalid. Therefore, my stop is a daily close under $3900. 💬 If this breakdown aligns with your outlook, like and comment below. For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
1
Gold Context: December Open & Holiday Inventory CheckCOMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1! Traders. Here is the context update as we transition into the new month. Market Context (Holiday Drift): The auction drifted higher on thin volume during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday shortened sessions. This extension was largely driven by a lack of sellers rather than aggressive buying, leaving us with a "thin" structure. Structure & Inventory: We have significant inventory resting back at 4200 – 4170, sitting just above the Previous Week High (PWH). Current Action: Price is holding the holiday extension. The Problem: The move up lacks heavy volume support. We have "unfinished business" below at the breakout zone. Plan & Execution: Monday marks the start of fresh December flows. I am not interested in chasing this extension at these highs. Stance: Flat / Patient. The Test: I want to see Gold rotate back to test the inventory at 4200 – 4170 first. Decision: We need to verify if buyers will defend this zone (turning old resistance into support) before committing to a new directional bias. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026
by Ken_Kissaki
1
1H Rally-Base-Rally Long Setup | Weekly & Daily AlignedMarket structure remains bullish across the higher timeframes with the Weekly, Daily, and 1H all trending upward. I’m focusing on the most recently created valid 1H Rally-Base-Rally demand zone for a potential long entry. This zone is high quality because it: ✅ Removed opposing supply zones ✅ Broke a valid trendline on departure ✅ Shows strong impulsive buying pressure ✅ Is the most recent institutional demand on the 1H Plan is to wait for price to return into this zone for continuation with the higher-timeframe trend. As always, patience and risk management first no chasing price.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by kellygnd
The Truth About Timeframe Analysis – Chapter 2FAFO – F*-AROUND-FIND-OUT FRAMEWORK”** If timeframes misalign, the market punishes you — every single time. 1️⃣ Trend / Impulse Check Last impulse >2× previous → momentum, not trend. Momentum alone = FAFO Check last candles → volume continuation or fade Context decides survival. 2️⃣ Zones Only Count With Confluence Align with: ✔ Trend ✔ HTF ✔ Clean break/retest ✔ Rejection candle ✔ Multiple TFs clean No confluence = decoration, ignore. 3️⃣ Candles = Evidence, Not Setups Single candles ≠ signal Must fit context + confluence Wrong context → FAFO 4️⃣ Confluence = Survival 2 variables aligned + 1 neutral = potential Any contradiction = dead setup No guessing. No opinions. 5️⃣ Timeframe Conflicts → Wait H1 bullish, M15 bearish → NO TRADE Waiting = capital protection, not inactivity Force a trade → FAFO 6️⃣ Context = Weapon Strong trend + HTF resistance + fading volume = conflict → do not trade Market shakes out amateurs here Respect context or get cleaned 7️⃣ Golden Rule Never trade against HTF unless MTF confirms reversal: ✔ Structure shift ✔ Volume shift ✔ Rejection candle ✔ Alignment Trade anyway → RR small, execution precise 8️⃣ 10-SECOND CLASSIFICATION CHECK HTF → bullish / bearish / conflict MTF → aligned / challenging / opposite LTF → entry / noise Zone → fresh / retested / dead Candle → supportive / neutral / invalidation Confluence → 2 aligned + 1 neutral = tradeable Contradiction → NO TRADE 9️⃣ FAFO Examples Bearish M15 at HTF demand = FAFO Momentum into dead zone = FAFO Giant candle in consolidation = FAFO 10️⃣ Rule Stack HTF owns the market MTF decides opportunity LTF executes only Two variables aligned = potential One contradiction = dead setup Momentum ≠ trend Zones need confluence or they don’t exist
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Education
by RapidRanger
Recovery phaseFollowing a "Double Bottom," currently testing key resistance levels within a broader bullish context (indicated by the large green Ichimoku cloud). The price has successfully reclaimed the 0.618 level (4,149.1). Holding above this level is crucial for the bullish thesis to continue. The price is approaching the 0.786 level (4,193.5). A breakout here usually opens the door for a retest of the previous high. If the price breaks the previous high (Level 1 at 4,250), the chart projects targets at the 1.272 extension (4,321.8) and the 1.618 extension (4,413.2). The price is trading well above the Green Kumo (Cloud), which acts as a major dynamic support zone. This generally indicates a long-term bullish trend. The Tenkan-Sen (Blue, 4,123.7) is currently below the Kijun-Sen (Red, 4,147.5), which is technically a weak signal. However, the current price (4,167) has moved above both lines, which is an early signal of renewed momentum. The status box at the bottom right notes "Status: Consolidation," likely waiting for the Tenkan to cross above the Kijun for a confirmed "Strong" buy signal. A clear "Double Bottom" pattern formed around the 3,985 level (the 0 Fib line). This is a classic reversal pattern that provided the floor for the current rally. There is an annotation for a "Bear Asc. Head and Shoulders." However, the price action has pushed up through the right shoulder, largely invalidating this bearish setup. Current Move: A breakout from the consolidation zone between 4,080 and 4,150. Short-Term Pullback: The projection anticipates a small dip or retest (likely bouncing off the 4,250 resistance initially). Breakout: The projection implies a final surge breaking the 4,250 high, aiming for the Fibonacci extensions at 4,321 and 4,413. Pivot/Support 4,149 (0.618 Fib) Must hold to maintain immediate bullish momentum. Major Support 4,118 - 4,123 Confluence of 0.5 Fib and Tenkan-Sen. Loss of this level turns the trend neutral/bearish. Key Resistance 4,193.5 The 0.786 Fib level; the next hurdle to clear. Breakout Target 4,250 Previous High. Clearing this confirms the resumption of the macro uptrend. Insight The chart suggests a Bullish Bias. The "Double Bottom" provided a strong floor, and the price reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci level is a sign of strength. The primary risk is the "Consolidation", watch for the Tenkan-Sen (Blue line) to cross above the Kijun-Sen (Red line) to confirm the next leg up.
COMEX:GC1!
by hilmiyus