Gold Dec. Futures (MCX) – Intraday Analysis 6th Oct., 2025MCX:GOLD1!
Gold is consolidating at 119,369 after a strong bounce, with price action pressing against a pivotal resistance area (zero line) and testing higher-low support in a sideways-to-bullish formation.
Bullish (Long) Setup
Long Entry (118,955):
Fresh longs are actionable above 118,955 with price holding above recent swing support, confirming buyers’ intent for further upside.
Adds can be managed at 118,779 if dips hold with rising volume and higher lows.
Upside Targets:
120,256 (Target 1): First mapped supply zone and likely profit-booking area.
120,826 (Target 2): Higher bullish extension and next major resistance.
Stop Loss:
Keep stops below 118,602 (short entry area) or 118,457 (long exit) to reduce risk in case of reversal.
Bearish (Short) Setup
Short Entry (118,602):
Shorts activate below 118,602, confirming breakdown of support and shifting momentum to sellers.
Downside Targets:
118,410 (Target 1): Bounce/support area for first profit booking.
117,840 (Target 2): Deeper extension and next major demand zone.
Stop Loss:
Exit shorts if price retakes 118,955 to avoid losses on failed breakdown.
Range/Neutral Logic
Zero Line (119,333):
Current action near the zero line marks the market balance; a sustained close above 119,333 supports bullish momentum, while repeated rejection turns bias sideways or soft bearish.
Wait for a breakout from the zero line for high-conviction trades.
Gold Mini Futures
Trade ideas
New ATHs for Gold?It seems like every single week, gold has been making new ATHs. With the overall bullish sentiment of the market plus the government shutdown, I don't see price slowing down any time soon.
As long as price is trading above the VWAP on lower time frames (4H, 1H, 15min), we could continue to see ATHs up to $4,000.
Me personally, I've been very cautious trading in these ATH markets. The reason is because price doesn't have much structure to follow. There's no clear vision of the target when entering longs and you're kind of just trading into no-mans-land.
We'll see what price decides to do early in the beginning of the trading week.
Options Traders Display Caution As Gold Bulls Gun For $4000With gold trading less than $120 from the $4,000 milestone, it would be rude not to test that key level. While market positioning suggests a move beyond it is possible, options traders appear to be bracing for higher volatility — or even a pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Gold Options Check-In: Are the Big Players Cashing Out?A quick look at the latest CME options data for Gold shows some interesting signals. It looks like the bulls might be getting tired.
The Big Signal: We're seeing big trading volume, but the number of actual open positions (Open Interest) has barely changed.
Calls: 27,274 contracts traded, but only +2,933 new positions were opened.
What this means: This isn't new money flooding in. It's big players shuffling their decks and taking chips off the table.
What's happening with Calls? 🔼
Traders are closing out their winning bets on strikes like $3850, $3800, and
4000
The Takeaway 🎯
The market sentiment is shifting from bullish to neutral & defensive. Big players are:
Cashing out their profits on call options.
This kind of activity is a sign that an uptrend could be running out of steam.
However, another leg up for gold is still possible. The argument for this scenario is the presence of a futures hedge within many of PUT spread portfolios. The logic works like this: if the asset's price continues to rise, profits are taken on the futures leg, and the position is closed. This profit can then make the put spread a breakeven trade, essentially providing downside protection for free, even if the price keeps rallying.
As for me, main bias: short at upper ER (if you're unfamiliar with the ER concept, check out my profile for a detailed post on Expected Range).)
Entry on touch. Risk kept small.
GC TRADE IDEAGold has been uptrend, but gold today run into daily FVG and on 4hr rejection with 1hr breakout, I am looking to buy if we trace back to that zone I marked belowGold has been uptrend, but gold today run into daily FVG and on 4hr rejection with 1hr breakout, I am looking to buy if we trace back to that zone I marked below
Gold - A shifted move in play and up to 4K🔱 Here’s a shifted move in play 🔱
What exactly is a shifted move?
You see the parallel lines next to the white fork?
Those are the shifted lines.
Now, if you observe how price behaved at the white fork, you’ll notice it was a bit sloppy at the L-MLH, and again at the Centerline after reaching it.
But when we add the dotted parallel lines to the chart and measure the distance from the overshoot at the L-MLH, we find a beautiful support at the Shifted Centerline.
The usual target would be the U-MLH.
So, could the target also be shifted?
And what does that tell us?
Well, if you’re long on Gold, you might want to take some profit at the Shifted U-MLH and let the rest ride up toward 4K—if there’s enough gas in the goose.
For me, a re-entry long would be a pullback to the Centerline—either the original or the shifted one—with a small stop just below some structure.
Let me know what you think ho far Gold will go in the comments.
😊 Thanks for boosting, thanks for following 🙏
Long trade Trade Journal Entry
Pair: MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures)
Trade Type: Buy-side trade
Date: Sun 29th June 2025
Session: 6.00 PM
TF: 1H
Trade Details:
Entry: 3,904.5
Profit Level: 4,134.5 (+18.47%)
Stop Level: 3,793.0 (–1.18%)
RR: 127.17
Wyckoff Narrative & Structure:
Phase A (Preliminary Support / Selling Climax): Market sold off into spring lows, where high volume absorption signalled potential accumulation.
Phase B (Building the Cause): An extended consolidation range is formed, marked by tests of support and resistance. Smart money accumulated positions while shaking out weak hands.
Phase C (Spring & Test): Price wicked below support to collect liquidity (spring event) before reclaiming the range. The test confirmed demand returning.
Phase D (Markup Initiation): Breakout above resistance with strong volume, creating a Sign of Strength (SOS) and retest zones acting as Last Points of Support (LPS).
Phase E (Trend Continuation): The current price action indicates a bullish continuation, in line with the long-term markup phase, which targets higher extensions (Fib 1.618 and above).
Feeling really good about this trade tbh.
Long trade
Pair/Asset: MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures)
Trade Type: Buyside trade (Trade Idea)
Date: Tuesday, 30th Sept 2025
Session: 6:00 AM
Trade Details
Entry: 3841.3
Profit Level (TP): 3914.2 (+1.90%)
Stop Level (SL): 3822.0 (-0.50%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 3.78
Technical Narrative
Market Context:
Gold retraced sharply overnight, creating multiple fair value gaps (FVGs) on the 5m chart.
The strong rebound at ~3820 formed a structural low + BSLQ sweep, suggesting liquidity taken below support. A bullish recovery candle with high volume confirmed aggressive buyers stepping in.
Entry Justification:
Entry at 3841.3 coincided with the demand zone after the sweep.
EMA/WMA realignment showed a momentum shift back to the upside.
Volume spike supported bullish intent.
Target Rationale:
TP at 3914.2 chosen just below the prior swing high & inefficiency zone.
Broader context: If USD shows weakness during the NY session, upside continuation is likely?
DYX (1Hr TF) overview
Gold Futures Bullish Setup – Entry at Demand Zone1. Channel Formation
The price is moving inside a rising parallel channel (blue lines).
Recently, the price broke below the midline (dashed blue) of the channel, indicating short-term weakness.
2. Trade Setup: Long (Buy) Position
The chart indicates a bullish outlook, expecting a price reversal from the demand zone.
🔹 Entry Zone
Entry Price: ₹116,251 – ₹116,277
This is marked with a grey zone, which aligns with a support area and previous consolidation.
🔻 Stop Loss (SL)
Stop Loss Price: ₹115,705 – ₹115,729
Placed just below the lower boundary of the support zone to protect against a false breakout.
🎯 Target (TP)
Target Price: ₹119,331 – ₹119,338 (LABA target point)
This lies above recent highs and near the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting continuation of the bullish trend.
3. Risk-Reward Ratio
The blue shaded box indicates a reward zone.
The trade has a favorable Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) > 2:1, which is considered a strong setup.
🧠 Interpretation & Strategy
The red curved arrow indicates expected price action: a short-term pullback into the demand zone, followed by a bullish bounce toward the target.
The structure suggests a buy-the-dip opportunity within an ongoing uptrend.
⚠️ Key Takeaways
Component Value (INR)
Entry Zone 116,251 – 116,277
Stop Loss 115,705 – 115,729
Target 119,331 – 119,338
Trend Bullish inside channel
Risk/Reward Favorable (>2:1)
✅ Conclusion
This setup represents a bullish continuation pattern. If price revisits the highlighted demand/support zone, and forms bullish reversal candles (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing), it could offer a high-probability long entry toward the upper end of the channel near ₹119,338.
Macro Data can keep Gold Pushing! Key Levels:
Daily High (DH): 3899.5
Monthly High (MH): 3899.5
Daily Low (DL): 3820.4
Weekly High (WH): 3824.6
Weekly Low (WL): 3717.7
📊 Technical Outlook
Price is currently trading near 3890, holding strong after yesterday’s impulsive bullish move. If we see a clean break back above yesterday’s high, continuation toward DH / MH 3899.5 looks highly probable. The recent structure continues to support bullish pressure with higher highs and shallow retracements.
🌍 Macro Watch
All eyes are on the U.S. Government shutdown threat tonight at midnight.
If Congress fails to reach an agreement, volatility in safe-haven assets like gold could spike.
A shutdown scenario would likely support continued bullish pressure on gold as risk sentiment shifts.
🎯 Trade Idea
Watching for a reclaim and hold above yesterday’s high → confirmation for bullish continuation.
Short-term target: 3899.5 (DH / MH) liquidity.
Failure to hold above could open a retrace back toward 3820–3824 support zone (DL / WH).
✅ Summary
Bias remains bullish as long as price holds near/above yesterday’s high. Macro uncertainty (government shutdown) could act as a catalyst, so staying nimble and risk-aware is key.
⚡️What do you think — does gold have enough momentum to clear 3899.5, or will macro risk force a deeper retrace first?
Gold | 9/30Gold is acting golden. 4hr fib levels on chart to guess at price movements but the data on the screen that is relevant is a daily candle from yesterday that is holding price in a daily range so far as of writing this.
15min trends marked to track price through a reversal possibly to lower ranges and yesterday median to gain some supportive structure and levels for later this week.
Mcx Gold Profit-taking takes placeA proper analysis and technical analysis(gold)
The latest 4-hour chart of MCX Gold Futures (INR) reveals a strong uptrend supported by channel movement and clear Fibonacci retracement levels. The price has recently tested channel resistance around 116,625 INR and faced a minor pullback to 116,170 INR, suggesting short-term consolidation after a rally.
### Trend and Channel Analysis
- The price is moving within a rising channel, indicating persistent bullish momentum .
- The current price (116,170 INR) is slightly below recent highs, respecting the upper boundary of the channel, which signals overextension and potential for a corrective pullback .
- As long as the price remains inside the channel, the upward trend is intact.
### Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent upmove:
- 0.0%: 116,625 INR (Recent swing high; nearest resistance)
- 23.60%: 113,656 INR (First near-term support; significant for shallow corrections)
- 38.20%: 111,819 INR (Secondary support; may attract buyers on stronger dips)
- 50.00%: 110,335 INR (Critical mid retracement; if broken, trend may weaken)
- 61.80%: 108,850 INR (Key retracement; strong institutional level)
- 78.60%: 106,737 INR (Major support if deep correction occurs)
### Support and Resistance
- Immediate resistance is at 116,625 INR; breaking above could trigger strong bullish momentum .
- Immediate support is at 113,656 INR; a drop below this could bring further downside to 111,819 INR .
- Psychological support is at 110,000 INR, just below the 50% retracement, and another at 108,750 INR near 61.8% .
### Momentum and Outlook
- The trend remains bullish unless the price closes below 113,656 INR .
- Watch for a buying opportunity if the price retests the lower channel or key Fibonacci levels without breaking the channel downward.
- If price sustains above 116,625 INR, next round of buying could push towards 118,000 INR.
### Summary Table
| Level | Price (INR) | Significance |
|-----------------|-------------|-------------------|
| Channel High | 116,625 | Immediate Resistance |
| 23.6% Fib | 113,656 | First Support |
| 38.2% Fib | 111,819 | Deeper Support |
| 50% Fib | 110,335 | Mid-Support |
| 61.8% Fib | 108,850 | Strong Support |
| 78.6% Fib | 106,737 | Deep Correction |
Overall, the outlook is bullish above 113,656 INR, but a close below key retracement levels could invite deeper correction towards 110,335 or 108,850 INR . Aggressive traders can ride the trend with tight stops below key levels, while conservative traders may wait for price action confirmation at or near Fibonacci supports.
Gold & Silver Push Higher as Markets Hunt for Safe HavensGold continues its climb, breaking through past resistance levels as investors flee into safety ahead of U.S. fiscal turmoil and rate ambiguity.
Meanwhile, silver is turning heads — rallying hard on the back of both safe-haven demand and its dual role as an industrial metal.
Together, they’re painting a picture: when anxiety and uncertainty rise, the metals step into the spotlight.
Gold hit an all-time high of $3,833.37/oz, closing at $3,829.63, on strong safe-haven demand amid U.S. shutdown fears and rate cut expectations.
It then extended gains, reaching $3,842.76/oz, putting it on track for its best month since August 2011 with an ~11.4% gain in September.
Silver also surged: it climbed to a 14-year high near $46.85/oz as industrial demand and safe-haven flows bolstered interest.
Earlier this year, silver broke $35/oz, a level not seen in over 13 years, driven by tight supply and robust demand in tech & green energy sectors.
Gold Futures (MGCZ5) – H4 Gap in PlayPrice pushed aggressively bullish all day yesterday with little to no pullbacks. That momentum left behind a fresh H4 Fair Value Gap (FVG) sitting just above the Weekly High (WH) level.
If we see a pullback into this area, it could offer a solid setup for continuation higher.
⚠️ Key considerations:
If buyers stay strong, price may run liquidity above 3863.7 (D-H) before any meaningful retracement.
If sentiment shifts, a deeper draw into the Daily FVG below 3764 remains on the table.
With global uncertainty (military meetings, de-dollarization, possible U.S. shutdown), volatility risk is elevated.
🎯 Game Plan:
Watch the H4 FVG near WH for rejection / entry signals.
Bias remains bullish while above 3785 (D-L).
Break below D-L opens the door toward the Daily FVG.
How To Spot Stagflation?One way is by looking at the copper-to-gold ratio and the crude oil-to-gold ratio.
• Gold reflects real money and investor confidence.
• Copper tracks recession.
• Crude oil represents inflation pressures.
When real money is under threat, the economy slows, and inflation rises at the same time, we have stagflation. This is the worst-case scenario for any economy. Fortunately, we are not experiencing it yet, though the risk remains.
What could trigger it?
Copper Gold Ratio - A downward trend signals slower growth and potential recession. This does not mean copper prices are falling; rather, if both copper and gold are rising but copper is climbing at a slower rate than gold, the ratio will continue to trend lower.
Crude Gold Ratio - As of now, the trend is still down, indicating that inflation remains under control. However, if crude oil starts moving higher, and its percentage change exceeds that of gold, the ratio will turn upward. Currently, inflation already seems to be pointing upward, and if the copper-gold ratio also rises, inflation is likely to trend higher than its current level.
Video version:
Therefore, stagflation = slow growth (copper-gold ratio) + high inflation (crude-gold ratio). Keep a close watch on the direction of copper and crude oil.
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com