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GOLDPETAL1! trade ideas

Global news might have us Stalling on Gold! Chart Context (MGC Futures, H1/H4) Price stalled out after rejecting the H4 bearish zone (3791.4–3769.9). Yesterday’s downside move lost steam before fully reaching the deeper H4 bullish demand (3746.3–3735.2). We’re now compressing between Daily High (3792.1) and Daily Low (3752.0). Fundamentals: U.S. geopolitical/military headlines (Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordering hundreds of generals/admirals to an urgent meeting at Quantico, Sep 30) are creating uncertainty, which could trigger safe-haven flows in gold. Bias Going Into Friday: Watching for liquidity sweep of yesterday’s lows (~3752/DL). If swept and reclaimed, could trigger bullish continuation. Alternatively, a clean break & hold above yesterday’s high (~3792/DH) sets up momentum longs targeting 3812+ (previous imbalance). No trade in the middle of the chop — patience until liquidity is taken on one side.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
GC Futures 15m: 6.6:1 trade executed using Sigma Trading SystemStep 1: wait for a sweep of daily liquidity Note: the sweep must be confirmed for any of the other confluences to be valid Step 2: wait for a bullish marker to be drawn by the Reversal Print indicator Tip: set an alert if you don’t want to spend all day staring at the chart Step 3: look for a divergence with either the PowerDelta Oscillator or, in this case, the Manipulation Ribbon Info: the Manipulation Ribbon detects areas of price manipulation by Market Makers vs areas where it is trading in a natural, price-driven state Step 4: the entry is a tap of the most recent confirmed FVG FYI: all the drawings on the main chart are created by the Sigma 5-in-1 indicator SL: low of first candle that forms the entry FVG Tip: for a more conservative approach the recent swing low could also be used TP: bearish divergence with the PowerDelta Oscillator Note: gold was at an all-time high so anything beyond the Previous Day High (PDH) posed a risk however for a more conservative approach you could exit half your position at the PDH
COMEX:GC1!
by FxScripts
1
Gold Rally May Soon Collapse Into a BustGold has reached its most overbought level on a monthly basis in 45 years. Not only that, but it is also overbought on a daily and weekly basis, a feat that is not only rare but troubling. The RSI on gold is now well above 70 on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. It is not merely that gold’s RSI is above 70 – it has reached a staggering 89.6 on the monthly chart, a level not seen since January 1980, when it peaked at 91.2 and closed that month at $681.50. It then took more than 27 years for gold to register a new monthly closing high in September 2007. Currently, the weekly chart exhibits similarly overbought conditions, with an RSI reading of 76, while trading above its upper Bollinger band for what appears to be four consecutive weeks. In addition, the %b – which measures how far above the upper Bollinger band the price of gold is – stands at 1.12, indicating that it is historically quite stretched. The daily chart suggests there may be a little further for gold to rally, but not much, with $3,820 marking the upper end of the trading range. With the RSI currently at 78, sustaining such a rally will be challenging. While there is precedent for gold to rally further from similarly overbought levels, as seen in the early and mid-1970s, today’s inflation picture is not quite the same. Historically, gold has tended to follow boom-and-bust cycles on a recurring basis over the past 50 years, and there is a good chance that this current move higher will end in a similar fashion. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025
by cmcmarkets
Bottom Buying in GoldIn my recent analysis of Gold Futures, I spotted a classic bottom-buying opportunity on the hourly chart. Gold was consolidating and testing support around the 50 EMA. Despite a flagpole pattern failure, I trusted the support level and managed my risk carefully. With a tight stop loss, I entered the trade right near the bottom retracement zone. The result was impressive. Within just 2–3 hours, the trade delivered a strong profit, validating my setup and conviction. At present, I am trailing my position with proper stop losses, ensuring that I capture as much of the ongoing trend as possible while protecting my gains. I’ll continue to maintain the trail as long as momentum stays active. This setup reaffirms the value of sticking to disciplined technical analysis and executing with conviction, even when patterns appear to fail.
MCX:GOLDM1!Long
by PrakashJanawade
Gold Futures – Pullback Into H4 Supply Before Drop to Demand?Price sold off strongly from 3812 resistance and is now correcting higher. On the H4, I see a bearish supply zone between 3791.4–3769.9, which aligns with prior POC acceptance around 3790. If price pulls back into this area and fails, I expect continuation lower into the H4 demand zone at 3746.3–3735.2, which also lines up with Daily Low (DL) and Weekly High (WH) liquidity markers. Levels to Watch: Bearish H4 Supply: 3791.4–3769.9 Bullish H4 Demand: 3746.3–3735.2 Invalidation: Break & hold above 3795 could target 3812 liquidity. Targets: First 3746.3, extended 3735.2. Bias: Bearish pullback scenario into supply → downside continuation.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
Gold Futures (GC) – “Top Is In” Schematic ReviewExecutive Snapshot 🧭 Primary stance: Bearish swing/top-in thesis (Wyckoff Distribution complete via UTAD). Bias strength: High, while price remains below 3,825–3,860 and fails to accept above. Game plan: Fade strength into supply; look for Phase D → E breakdown confirmation → target 3,534/3,509 → 3,209 → 3,123 then extended 2,970–2,795 if momentum accelerates. Multi-Framework Confluence: A) Wyckoff (your schematic) ♟️ Phases: A/B: BC/ST established range highs; AR/SOW tagged mid/low of range. C: UT → UTAD (new high on diminishing relative spread & mixed volume). D (now): Throwback rallies holding beneath UTAD; look for LPSY near 3,760–3,825; failure → Phase E markdown. Validation: Lower highs after the UTAD and repeated rejections of the supply shelf 3,760–3,825. Confirmation trigger: Break and accept below ICE/Creek = 3,534–3,509 (your pink band) → distribution confirmed. Macro Frame 🌐 Gold’s cyclical up-leg is extended; near-term macro supports a pause/reversion: Real yields/beta & USD shocks can catalyze a value-seeking dip. COMEX time-and-price run suggests heat above without equivalent build in value → mean-revert first, trend later. Invalidation & Risk: Hard invalidation (swing): Weekly close > 3,860 and acceptance above for 2–3 sessions (no swift rejection). Soft invalidation (tactical): Daily close back inside 3,760–3,825 after a breakdown → step aside, wait for next LPSY. Position/Risk Template: Initial risk: above 3,825 (or 3,860 for wider swing). Size: start ½–⅔ unit at first tag/reject; complete size on breakdown retest of 3,534–3,509. Trailing: swing stop > last LPSY high once 3,534 is lost. Momentum & Internals (Quick Read) ⚙️ RSI/ultimate RSI (your panels): persistent bearish divergence into UTAD zone. MACD: high, curling; ripe for signal cross on daily if price slips under 3,600s → 3,534. Squeeze/Momentum: elevated; release down would align with the distribution thesis. Execution Checklist ✅ Pre-break: Fade 3,760–3,825 on rejection candles/footprint absorption. Track delta & volume—no expansion = stronger distribution read. Break event: Daily close < 3,534 → reduce discretion, execute plan; seek retest → LPSY to add. Manage: Cover +30–50 handles into 3,209–3,180; roll runner. Data to watch: USD DXY spikes, GLD OI/put skew, dealer GEX flips around GLD 300. One-Page Risk Map 🗺️ Bearish while: < 3,825–3,860. Confirmation: < 3,534–3,509 (close/accept). Targets: 3,209 → 3,123 → 2,970 → 2,795 → 2,541. Stop/Invalid: > 3,860 w/ acceptance. Marked UTAD and supply stack 3,760–3,825 present a clean risk-defined top. Until the market accepts above 3,860, the probabilistic path favors Phase E markdown back toward 3,2xx value and possibly the 2,9xx–2,795 extension if momentum breaks loose.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JavierXBT
Gold Buy ModelAs we all know, gold has been trending up for quite some time now. With Fed Chair Roman Powell speaking about rate cuts in the future, this means that Gold is going to want to continue trending up. Lower interest rates can also weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and increasing demand. I do think gold will continue to trend higher, but I'd love to see a sweep of Asia session lows, potentially testing PDL before this happens. My area of interest is right around $3780 to $3775.
COMEX:GCZ2025Long
by TheTradingRegimen
I Should Have Noticed This Pattern (Episode 1) Just today I zoomed out on my GS chart and noticed for the first time this almost perfect triangle pattern. How did I completely miss this? -There are many times in my short trading career that I have come across things I should have noticed. Whether it's chart patterns, correlation, volume spikes, or indicators indicating; I kick myself for my neglect! -Now the least I can do is point out those mistakes and share them with you as I see them, in the hopes that more get noticed in the future. -This is an example of a symmetrical triangle which is considered the most common type of triangle pattern. Despite the name, the triangle does not have to be symmetrical and like all patterns is evaluated in the approximate. Some imagination is required. Most triangles are a representation of consolidation before continuation, but can sometimes represent a top or bottom before reversal. When price does break out of a triangle, volume should spike and this example clearly shows that. This example also shows a false breakout which would have been discovered when closing for the day back "inside" the pattern. Also like all patterns, the larger the time interval, the more important the pattern. Daily and longer are preferred. -Again this is what I see after the fact and far too late. I would not enter this trade now. Please let me know if I missed something or if you were able to trade this in real time and there was details that I left out. Also, did anyone make money on noticing this pattern? Am I mistaken in any way?
COMEX:GCZ2025Education
by NoMorePaperTrading
Gold Futures — Extended After Bullish Surge, Watching 4 PullbackYesterday’s move pushed gold aggressively higher with almost no retrace, leaving a string of unfilled imbalances below. Price is now pressing into 3780 levels, just shy of the psychological 3800 handle. Key Scenarios: Bullish Continuation: If Asia/London hold above 3767, a squeeze into 3800–3810 is possible before any meaningful pullback. Retracement Setup: A break under 3767 could trigger a retrace into 3743 → 3719 zone, aligning with prior resistance turned support. Bigger Picture: Major 4H FVG remains untested below (around 3650–3660), which could act as a downside magnet later in the week. Patience is key after such a vertical move — waiting to see if Tuesday gives us either continuation or that first retrace.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Silver To The Mooooon!!Several factors have come together to make silver especially attractive. Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts / Lower Real Yields Markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like silver. Real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) have been weak or falling, making silver more appealing. Weak U.S. Dollar When the USD weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Safe-Haven / Inflation Hedge Demand Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and fears of inflation make precious metals attractive. Silver benefits both as an industrial metal and a hedge to some degree. The gold-to-silver ratio is unusually high, which many see as signalling that silver is “cheap” relative to gold, suggesting more upside potential.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by LegendSince
Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)🟡 Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly) Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, gold has extended aggressively into the 2.618 Fib extension (~3,778), a level that historically marks exhaustion points in strong trends. Volume profile also shows a lack of heavy participation above, meaning this is an overextended zone that can invite corrections. That said, the structural trend remains firmly bullish. Gold has been in a secular uptrend, and each consolidation/throwback over the past decade has set up for higher highs. From a macro perspective, dips remain buying opportunities — but risk management matters when price stretches this far, this fast. 🔍 Long-Term Context Gold has already cleared the 1.618 extension (~2,734) and ran nearly straight into the 2.618 (~3,778) without meaningful retrace. Volume profile shows thin participation between ~3,200 and 3,600 — fast moves can cut both ways here. Stronger long-term support sits around 3,390 (high-volume node) and further down at ~2,730 and ~2,090 (Fib levels + prior consolidation zones). ⚖️ Strategy Update Long-term bias: Bullish. Macro backdrop (Fed easing cycle, fiscal imbalances, central bank buying) favors higher gold over time. Short-term hedge: Valid. With price testing a 2.618 Fib extension, we expect corrective pullbacks before continuation. A hedge here reduces risk of giving back profits without abandoning the larger uptrend. Plan: Maintain hedge positioning near 3,758–3,771 (as outlined in the short-term plan). If pullback develops, scale out at key supports (3,701 → 3,587 → 3,510). If price breaks and sustains above 3,790, hedge is invalid and we reset for long continuation. 📊 Perspective: The weekly chart confirms why a hedge here makes sense — gold has run into a historically significant Fib extension with thin volume structure above. This doesn’t negate the long-term bull trend, but it increases the probability of a corrective throwback. Protecting gains with a short hedge while respecting the bullish macro bias keeps us balanced.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Gold Futures Hedge Update🟡 Gold Futures Hedge Update Our previous short setup reached the first take profit, confirming that hedging into overextension made sense. Long-term bias on gold remains bullish, but short-term conditions still look stretched, and we’re preparing for another protective hedge. This is not a bearish reversal call — the goal is to lock in gains and protect profits as gold presses into heavy resistance. 📍 Trade Setup (Short Hedge) Entry (Short): 3,750 (Fib 1.618 extension + HVN resistance) Stop Loss (SL): 3,780 (above channel top + HVN cluster) Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,700 – 3,685 (volume node / mid-channel support) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,587 (next HVN + structural support) Take Profit 3 (Stretch): 3,510 – 3,500 (Fib retrace + channel low) ⚖️ Rationale Gold has been overextended on the short-term chart, pressing into Fib and channel resistance with signs of stalling. Volume profile highlights key support/resistance nodes that align with Fib levels. Taking partial profits on the way down while keeping risk tight ensures the hedge protects without overcommitting against the dominant bullish trend. 📊 Plan: Scale into shorts near resistance with defined risk, peel off at TP1 and TP2, leave a runner for deeper correction potential. If gold breaks and holds above 3,790, hedge is invalidated and focus shifts back to long setups.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Tracking Stagflation with this Ratio - Crude, Copper, Gold RatioHow to Spot Stagflation? One way is by looking at the copper-to-gold ratio and the crude oil-to-gold ratio. • Gold reflects real money and investor confidence. • Copper tracks recession. • Crude oil represents inflation pressures. When real money is under threat, the economy slows, and inflation rises at the same time, we have stagflation. This is the worst-case scenario for any economy. Fortunately, we are not experiencing it yet, though the risk remains. What could trigger it? Copper Oil Futures & Options Ticker: HG Minimum fluctuation: 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
2
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719). Key Scenarios This Week: Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out. Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area). Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
2