TSLA is giving mixed signals. Range low next move?I must say I have a very dualistic view on TSLA here. I think there is certainly a possibility of this becoming a prolonged consolidation with another move towards the downside of the range. On the other hand, that 1.618 extension to the upside als looks like a very valid target. Needless to say, while most people seem to stare blindly at TESLA great promises, I'm a little more skeptical to say the lest.
- Earnings have been going down over the years
- Revenue has stayed somewhat flat, with high odds of continuing to decline in China
- First their cars were going to change the world, then it was their energy solutions, then FSD became the narrative (Once done, FSD would instantly scale to worldwide usage and work everywhere, but currently their taxi service that would expand rapidly is geofenced), now Optimus is the narrative.
Elon is holding a carrot
- My point is: Elon is holding a carrot in front of us. I'm not saying Tesla is not doing great things. Their progress on FSD is real. But unless they will actually start to deliver real revenue and real profit, it will continue to be hyped up promises.
- For example, the EPS of XETR:VOW is 13x higher than Tesla's. Current Price to Earnings ratio for Tesla is at 300x.
So is it that weird to find that TA is giving mixed signals and possibly pointing towards range low?
Simple outlook
Anyway, this is my plan:
- I'll assume we are going up for 1.618 UNLESS
- We deviate back below previous ATH level. Then I think odds are starting to shift in favor of a bigger downward move.
