MSTR | Long-Term Investment OutlookMicroStrategy (MSTR) is currently trading around $195, a key weekly support zone that can serve as a strategic entry point for long-term investors.
The recent extended decline has pushed the stock into a deep discount area, making the current structure favorable for an upside recovery as long as capital management is handled with discipline.
📌 Investment Plan (Strict Capital Management)
Primary Entry Zone:
$195 → Main investment entry
Add-On Levels (Only if price breaks lower):
$150 → First and ONLY allowed reinforcement
$105 → Final reinforcement level (NO averaging down beyond this point)
⚠️ No additional entries are allowed outside these three levels.
🎯 Profit Targets
If price recovers from the $195, $150, or $105 entries, upside targets will be:
TP1 → $245
TP2 → $295
TP3 → $345
TP4 → $390
At every target hit:
Partial profits should be taken.
Stop loss is moved up to $195 to fully secure capital.
🔄 Position Management Logic
✔️ If $195 entry is active and price dips to $150:
Activate the $150 entry
If price returns to $195,
Close the $195 trade at break-even
Keep the $150 trade → take partial profits on breakout
✔️ If price continues to $105:
Activate the $105 entry
On recovery toward $150:
Close the $150 position at break-even
Keep the $105 position active
On recovery to 195$:
Close $195 at break-even
Take profits on $105, then let the remainder run toward upper targets.
This mechanism ensures:
✓ capital protection
✓ optimal average entry
✓ maximum benefit from deep-value entries
⚠️ Disclaimer
This idea is for educational and analytical purposes only.
It is NOT financial advice or a direct buy/sell signal.
Always apply strict risk management before entering any position.
Trade ideas
MSTR: The Software Company That Gave Up on SoftwareMSTR The Next Barings Bank - Short to Zero
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stopped being a software company years ago. They couldn't grow revenue, so Michael Saylor found a new pitch: leverage the entire company to buy Bitcoin and sell the "vision" to retail investors.
The Revenue Reality:
2015: $529.87M revenue
2021: $510.76M revenue (DOWN after 6 years)
2023: $496.26M revenue
2024: $463.46M revenue
TTM: $474.94M revenue
Ten years. NEGATIVE revenue growth.
When you can't grow your actual business, you pivot to selling a pipe dream. That's exactly what Saylor did.
The Ponzi Structure
Here's the model:
Borrow billions to buy Bitcoin
Bitcoin goes up (hopefully)
Stock goes up because you "own Bitcoin"
Issue more stock at inflated prices
Buy more Bitcoin with diluted shares
Repeat until it breaks
The problem: They have no control over Bitcoin long-term. They can move it short-term with their buying, but in reality? They're passengers on a volatile asset with $7.26B in debt.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Balance Sheet Explosion:
Total debt 2019: $0
Total debt 2024: $7.26B
Total assets jumped from $4.76B (2023) to $25.84B (2024) - all Bitcoin
Revenue declining while taking on billions in debt
Operating Performance:
Net income 2024: -$1.17B (loss)
Net margin: -3,797% (you read that right)
Operating income: -$63.12M (negative)
Free cash flow 2024: -$66.51M (-780% change)
EBITDA 2024: -$24.53M
The actual software business is dying while Saylor pumps Bitcoin on Twitter.
Barings Bank 2.0: The Nick Leeson Parallel
In 1995, Nick Leeson was a derivatives trader at Barings Bank. He bought Nikkei futures at the 40-year top, kept doubling down to cover losses, and hid everything in error account 88888.
Result: 233-year-old bank collapsed in weeks.
Michael Saylor is doing the exact same thing:
Leveraged to the tits buying Bitcoin near tops
$7.26B in debt on a declining software business
No way out if Bitcoin crashes
The interest payments alone will kill him
The market already knows: While Nasdaq hits all-time highs, MSTR is 50% off its highs.
That's not a dip. That's the market pricing in the collapse before it happens.
The Technical Setup
Current price: ~$269
Key breakdown level: $230
If $230 breaks:
Next stop: $180 (support from previous consolidation)
Then: $114 area (major support zone)
Ultimate target: $0
Why these areas matter:
$230 = Last line of defense before panic selling
$180 = Where late buyers give up hope
$114 = Pre-Bitcoin-mania valuation (actual software business worth)
$0 = When the debt spiral becomes unsustainable
Chart pattern: Classic distribution. Lower highs, weakening momentum, while indices rip higher.
The Catalyst: Bitcoin Goes Into Crypto Winter
When Bitcoin cracks (see my other post on October 10th liquidation):
The death spiral:
Bitcoin drops 50%+
MSTR's "asset base" collapses
Debt-to-equity ratio explodes
Credit downgrades trigger margin calls
Forced liquidation of Bitcoin holdings
More Bitcoin selling accelerates crypto winter
MSTR goes to zero
Saylor's only escape: Bitcoin stays elevated forever AND he can keep issuing diluted shares to cover debt payments.
Reality: Neither of those things will likely to happen.
The Pipe Dream They're Selling
"We're a Bitcoin treasury company!"
No. You're a failing software company with declining revenue that gambled the entire operation on a volatile asset you can't control.
You can't control Bitcoin's price long-term
You can't control regulatory changes
You can't control macro conditions
You can't control when crypto winter comes
You're just holding bags with $7.26B in debt.
The Short Thesis
Entry: Current levels ($269) or breakdown below $230
Targets:
First target: $180
Second target: $114
Ultimate target: $0
Stop loss: Above $320 (invalidation if Bitcoin makes new highs and MSTR participates)
Timeframe: 6-18 months for full thesis to play out
Catalysts:
Bitcoin entering crypto winter (foundation cracked October 10th)
Credit downgrades
Forced Bitcoin liquidation
Revenue continues declining
Debt payments become unsustainable
Risk Factors
What could go wrong with this short:
Bitcoin has a blow-off top before winter
Saylor successfully issues more diluted shares at elevated prices
Retail continues buying the "Bitcoin exposure" narrative
Some institution bails him out (unlikely)
Why I'm short:
The math doesn't work. You can't have:
Negative revenue growth for a decade
$7.26B in debt
No control over your primary asset
Negative operating cash flow
...and survive when that asset drops 70-80% (which it will).
The Comparison
1995: Nick Leeson buys Nikkei futures at 40-year top
Doubles down with borrowed money
Hides losses in account 88888
Collapses 233-year-old Barings Bank
2025: Michael Saylor buys Bitcoin near all-time highs
Leverages entire company with $7.26B debt
Pumps Bitcoin on Twitter while software business dies
About to collapse MSTR
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
Final Word
The market is telling you everything you need to know:
Nasdaq: All-time highs
Bitcoin: Near all-time highs
MSTR: Down 50% from highs
When the asset you're leveraged on is strong, and the indices are strong, but YOUR STOCK is down 50%...
The market is pricing in collapse.
MSTR → Zero
#MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWinter #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #Leverage #DebtCrisis
MSTR still range bound on weekly...How much longerThis is a fun chart to watch. I have no positions but would consider options if breaks out. Its unique in many ways so be safe with this one. Has potential to blast off in either or even both directions almost instantly.
Right now, I see the price as stuck in a range until breaking and closing above the $445 area. How long we stay in this range? Markets waiting on Jan 20, 2025 or WHAT?
MSTR lets see how long it lasts.The weekly chart is crazy. I wonder if Bitcoin headed back to upper $70k range. If so, MSTR might get REKT. My "eyes on the prize" area is below $200. Massive liquidations after that? Of course, it can knee jerk and be $500 by Jan 20th. Its a bitcoin play. Don't overextend and survive the drawdown!







