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FCPOH2021 trade ideas

2/9/25 Can Bears Create FT Selling, or Bear Trap? Friday’s candlestick (Aug 29) was a bear bar closing near its low. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bears could create strong follow-through selling, closing below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would find support at the 20-day EMA and close higher for the day instead. The bears got follow-through selling, closing below the 20-day EMA. The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support, and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (Jul 1 and Aug 4). They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 low). They hope Friday's candlestick will become a bear trap. They want a retest and a breakout above the August high. They need to create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move. If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high or a double top. Production for Sept should be flat or down. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 10%. The sideways to down pullback phase is still underway. Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling. Or will the market reverse sharply, creating a bear trap? For tomorrow (Tuesday, Sept 2), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA. Or will the market reverse above the 20-day EMA instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
3/9/25 Bulls Need Follow-Through Buying Monday’s candlestick (Sept 2) was a bull bar closing near its high. In our last report, we stated that traders would assess whether the bears could create follow-through selling or if the market would reverse sharply, creating a bear trap. The market gapped up and closed higher above the 20-day EMA. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling. The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support, and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (Jul 1 and Aug 4). They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 and Aug 29). They hope Friday's candlestick will become a bear trap. They need to create follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest and a breakout above the August high. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move. If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high or a double top. Production for Sept should be flat or down. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 10%. So far, the recent sideways to down pullback has formed a higher low. There was no follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Sept 3), traders will see if the bulls can create strong follow-through buying. If they can, the odds of a retest near the August high will increase. Or will the market trade slightly higher, but close with a long tail above or a bear body instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
FCPO Weekly Roundup - Week ending: Aug 29, 2025📣 Southwind | FCPO Weekly Roundup 🗓 Week ending: Aug 29, 2025 📰 Policy driver - 🇮🇩 Indonesia sets Sept CPO reference at USD 954.71/MT → export tax ~USD 124/MT; with 10% levy, total burden ~USD 219/MT vs ~USD 165 in Aug (+USD 54). - Implication: higher Indonesian costs can shift some demand toward Malaysia and support FCPO spreads in Sept. 📈 Technicals (Daily) - 🔺 Price at rising‑channel support; reclaiming short DMAs often reopens upside toward prior swing highs in trends. - 🔎 Watch a clean close back above fast MAs for momentum confirmation. 🗂 Technicals (Weekly) - 🥄 Rounded base still intact; resistance stacked 4,600–4,800, with higher lows keeping structure constructive into Q4. - 📊 Break-and-close above the band would validate a base break and extend upside potential. 🎯 Levels - 🛡 Supports: channel lower rail/MA cluster; a decisive break risks deeper mean‑reversion to prior range supports. - 🚧 Resistances: 4,450 first, then 4,600–4,800 on weekly supply. 🌍 Fundamentals to watch - 🛢 Indonesia’s monthly tax/levy grid and spread impact. - 🚢 Malaysia exports vs inventories; stocks elevated but outlook seen steady-to-firm on demand momentum. ✅ Bias - Overall: cautiously **bullish** while the daily channel holds and weekly higher lows persist; aiming for retests into the 4,600s on a strong MA reclaim.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by Southwind-CT
29/5/25 Sideways to Down PB testing the 20-day EMA Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 28) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a strong follow-through bull bar or if the market would trade lower, breaking below the August 21 low and testing the 20-day EMA instead. The bulls were not able to create a follow-through bull bar, and the market traded lower to test the 20-day EMA. They want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 low). They need to create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 10% in the first 25 days. So far, the pullback phase is still holding above the 20-day EMA and is a higher low. The sideways to down pullback phase is still underway. Tomorrow's daily candlestick will determine the weekly candlestick. The bulls want a strong bull bar so that the weekly candlestick will close with a long tail below. The bears want a strong bear bar so that the weekly candlestick will close near its low, which increases the odds of the market trading at least a little lower next week. For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 29), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling, closing below the 20-day EMA. Or will the market find support at the 20-day EMA and close higher for the day instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
28/8/25 Bulls Need a Strong Follow-through Bull Bar Wednesday’s candlestick (Aug 27) was a bull bar closing slightly above the middle of its range with a prominent tail above. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bears could create a strong second leg sideways to down, breaking below the August 21 low and testing the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade lower but stall around the August 21 low or the 20-day EMA instead. So far, the second leg sideways to down is stalling around the August 21 low area. The bulls see the current move as part of a two-legged pullback. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. They want it to form a double bottom bull flag with the August 21 low. They need to create a strong follow-through bull bar tomorrow to increase the odds of a retest of the August 19 high, followed by a strong breakout above. If the market trades lower, the bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They view the current move as the second leg sideways to down. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the August 21 low to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 10% in the first 25 days. So far, the pullback phase has been mostly sideways, characterized by overlapping candlesticks. The pullback appears to be minor for now. The bulls need to create a strong follow-through bull bar to increase the odds of a reversal from a double bottom bull flag. For tomorrow (Thursday, Aug 28), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong follow-through bull bar. If they do, the odds of retesting the August 19 high will increase. Or will the market trade lower, breaking below the August 21 low and testing the 20-day EMA instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
27/8/25 PB Phase, Bears Need Strong FT Selling Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 26) was a follow-through bear bar closing near its low. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bears could create a strong second leg sideways to down testing the August 21 low, or if the second leg sideways to down would lack strong follow-through selling, stalling around the August 21 low instead. The market is forming the second leg sideways to down, testing the August 21 low. The bulls see the current move as part of a two-legged pullback. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. They want it to form a double bottom bull flag with the August 21 low. They want a retest of the August 19 high, followed by a strong breakout above it after the pullback. If the market trades lower, the bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They see the current move as the second leg sideways to down. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the August 21 low to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 10% in the first 25 days. The market is still in the sideways to down pullback phase following the wedge pattern. So far, the pullback phase has been mostly sideways, characterized by overlapping candlesticks. The pullback appears to be minor for now. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 27), traders will see if the bears can create a strong second leg sideways to down, breaking below the August 21 low and testing the 20-day EMA. Or will the market trade lower, but stall around the August 21 low or the 20-day EMA instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
26/8/25 2-Legged Sideways to Down Pullback Monday’s candlestick (Aug 25) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar and sustained follow-through buying testing the August 19 high, or if the bears would be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and another sideways to down leg. The market opened higher but lacked follow-through buying and traded lower. The bulls could not get a follow-through bull bar. The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They see the current move as part of a two-legged pullback. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. They want a retest of the August 19 high, followed by a strong breakout above it after the pullback. If the market trades lower, they want it to form a double bottom bull flag with the August 21 low. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They see the current move (Friday and Monday) as the second leg sideways to down. If the market trades higher, they want it to stall below the August 19 high, forming a small double top. They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the August 21 low to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 10% in the first 25 days. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling). So far, the pullback phase has been mostly sideways, characterized by overlapping candlesticks. The pullback appears to be minor. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 26), traders will see if the bears can create a strong second leg sideways to down testing the August 21 low. Or will the second leg sideways to down lack strong follow-through selling, stalling around the August 21 low instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
25/8/25 Bulls Need Sustained Follow-through Buying Friday’s candlestick (Aug 22) was a bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of the August 19 high, or if the bears would be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and another sideways to down again. The market traded higher, and the bears were not able to get another bear bar. The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. So far, this appears to be the case. They want a retest of the August 19 high followed by a strong breakout above it. They need to create follow-through buying next week to increase the odds of a sustained move. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. They see Friday as a pullback and want a second leg sideways to down. If the market trades higher, they want it to stall below the August 19 high, forming a small double top. They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 13% in the first 20 days. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling). So far, the pullback (Aug 21) has overlapping candlesticks and appears to be minor. For tomorrow (Monday, Aug 25), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar and sustained follow-through buying testing the August 19 high. Or will the bears be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and another sideways to down leg? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
22/8/25 Minor PB, Bulls Want Retest Aug 19 High Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 21) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a strong retest of the August 19 high, or if the bears would be able to establish a lower high (compared to August 19) and a second leg sideways to down. The market traded higher but lacked follow-through buying. The bears got a second leg sideways to down. The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. So far, this appears to be the case. They want a retest of the August 19 high followed by a strong breakout above it. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. At the least, they want a two-legged pullback. If the market trades higher, they want it to stall below the August 19 high, forming a small double top. They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 13% in the first 20 days. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling). The market formed a pullback after testing the February high. Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead? Traders will continue to monitor the next few days. So far, the pullback has an overlapping range and appears to be minor. For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 22), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the August 19 high. If they can, the weekly candlestick will close near its high, which will increase the odds of next week trading at least a little higher. Or will the bears be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and another sideways to down again? If the bears can get a strong bear bar, the weekly candlestick will close with a big bear body, which will reduce the recent bullishness. Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
21/8/25 Weak PB So Far, Bulls Want Retest High Wednesday’s candlestick (Aug 20) was a bear bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create strong follow-through selling, or if the pullback phase would be weak and mostly sideways (overlapping candlesticks, long tails below bars, bull bars). The market traded lower but reversed to close above the middle of its range. The pullback phase is still weak. The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. So far, this appears to be the case. They want a retest of the August 19 high followed by a strong breakout above it. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. At the least, they want a two-legged pullback. If the market trades higher, they want it to stall below the August 19 high, forming a small double top. They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 13% in the first 20 days. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling). The market formed a pullback after testing the February high. Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead? Traders will continue to monitor the next few days. For tomorrow (Thursday, Aug 21), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the August 19 high. Or will the bears be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and a second leg sideways to down instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
20/8/25 Traders Will See If Bears Can Create FT Selling Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 19) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above. In our last report, we traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying or if the market would stall and form bear bars instead. The market traded higher, testing the February high, but reversed into an outside bear bar instead. The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling like all recent pullbacks. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high. At the least, they want a two-legged pullback. They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. So far, the market is forming a pullback around this level. They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent. Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling). The market is forming a pullback after testing the February high. Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead? For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 20), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling. Or if the pullback phase would be weak and mostly sideways (overlapping candlesticks, long tails below bars, bull bars)? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
18/8/25 The Bulls Need More FT Buying Monday’s candlestick (Aug 18) was a bull doji following the gap up at the open. In our last report, we stated that traders would assess whether the bulls could generate follow-through buying or if the market would trade higher but lack sustained follow-through buying strength. The market opened higher, and the bears attempted to create a failed breakout; however, follow-through selling was limited. The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They hope the gap up on Monday (Aug 18) will be a measuring gap, which will take the market to around 4900. If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. The next target for the bulls are the Feb/Mar and 2024 highs. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 18). They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance. They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent still. Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days. So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling). The market is still in the sideways to up phase. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 19), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying. If there is a pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. Or will the market stall and form bear bars instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by Tech_Trader88
18/8/25 Bulls Need Follow-through Buying Friday’s candlestick (Aug 15) was a bull bar closing near its high. In our last report, we said the bulls wanted a strong bull bar, which will close the weekly candlestick near its high. If this is the case, next week may trade at least a little higher. The market traded higher, and the weekly candlestick closed near its high. The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. This was the case with August 14. The next target for the bulls is the Feb high. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 15). They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance. They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control. Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days. The weekly candlestick closed near its high. The market may gap up on Monday. Small gaps usually close early. The market should still trade at least a little higher. For tomorrow (Monday, Aug 18), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying. Or will the market trade higher but lack sustained follow-through buying strength? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by Tech_Trader88
15/8/15 Can Bears Create Strong PB or Fail to Do So? Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 14) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying or if the market would begin to stall and form a pullback instead. The market formed a pullback, which overlaps the prior candlestick. The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 13). They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance. They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control. Production for August may be flat or down. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days. The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying. The market may be in the pullback phase. Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling or fail to do so. For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 15), the bulls want a strong bull bar which will close the weekly candlestick near its high. If this is the case, next week may trade at least a little higher. The bears want follow-through selling. They want a strong bear bar, which will cause the weekly candlestick to close with a long tail above, thereby reducing the recent bullish strength. Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
14/8/25 Bulls Want Big Leg up With Small Pullbacks Wednesday’s candlestick (Aug 13) was a bull bar closing slightly above the middle of its range with a long tail above. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying, or if the bears would be able to generate some selling pressure instead. The market traded higher, and the bulls got some follow-through buying. The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again. They want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 13). They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars. The bears want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance. Production for August may be flat or down. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days. The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling). For tomorrow (Thursday, Aug 14), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying. If there is any pullback, traders will assess its strength, whether it will be strong or mostly weak and sideways. Or will the market start to stall and form a pullback instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
13/8/25 Bulls Need More FT, Want Any PB to Be Weak Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 12) was a bull bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could generate follow-through buying, even if it were only a bull doji, or if the bears would be able to create a failed breakout, closing the candlestick as a strong bear bar instead. The market traded higher but closed off its high (long tail above candlestick). The bulls got follow-through buying. The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of another leg up. If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again. They want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 12). They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars. Production for August may be flat or down. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days. The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling). For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 13), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying. If there is any pullback, traders will assess its strength, whether it will be strong or mostly weak and sideways. Or will the bears be able to create some selling pressure (strong bear bars) instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
12/8/25 Bulls Need Follow-through Buying Monday’s candlestick (Aug 11) was a big bull bar closing near its high. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create strong bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but lack follow-through selling (again), followed by a reversal above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead. The market formed a strong rally and retested the July 24 high. The bulls want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above and another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks. They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of another leg up. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again. They want the market to form a double top (vs Jul 24) and a failed breakout. They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars. Production for August may be flat or down. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days. The market formed a retest of the July 24 high. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling). For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 12), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying, even if it is only a bull doji. If the bulls can create strong follow-through buying over the next few days, the odds of another strong leg up increase. Or will the bears be able to create a failed breakout, closing the candlestick as a strong bear bar instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88