Trade ideas
GOLD: Bullish, But Retracing! Short Term Sell Opportunity!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Oct. 27 - 31st.
Gold is still bullish, the current pullback it's in notwithstanding. Waiting patiently for valid buy setups is the sure way to go.
That being said, there is sell setup that could present an short-term opportunity. The Daily -FVG is currently holding price in check. Should price return to it and it continues to hold, a valid sell opportunity could present itself.
Be careful, as it is counter-trend. They can be lower-probability.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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GC (Gold Futures): Towards $3900?This is MGC chart.
Current Market Situation
The chart shows MGC trading around $4,000 with a bearish outlook projected through the end of the week.
What We're Seeing
Price Movement:
- Price is trapped in a descending channel (purple trendlines)
- Currently attempting to push up near the $4,000 resistance zone
- Overall trend still shows downward pressure
This Week's Forecast:
- Tuesday (today): Might bounce up first, attempting a rally toward upper channel resistance
- Wednesday-Friday: Expected to reverse sharply and decline due to high impact news.
- Target: Down to $3,900 by end of week
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $4,008-$4,010 (current area)
- Support: $3,900 (primary target), $3,868 (secondary support)
- Upper purple trendline acts as dynamic resistance
Bottom Line
This setup anticipates a "bull trap" scenario - a brief rally that fails at resistance before resuming the downtrend. The trader expects gold to drop approximately $100+ over the next few days, staying within the descending channel pattern.
Risk Warning: If price breaks decisively above the upper purple trendline with strong volume, this bearish scenario would be invalidated and the trend could reverse bullish.
Short the Pop Near Intraday Highs — Gold Dec ’25Timeframe: 30m with 15m confluence
Symbol: COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Thesis
Price pushed into a confluence resistance area and printed rejection. I’m positioned short from ~ 3,980 , looking for a fade back toward mid/low-day supports unless we accept above the resistance shelf.
Confluence (15m + 30m)
Tag of the prior intraday high / supply shelf around 3,985–4,015 .
MA cluster overhead on the 30m near ~ 4,002 ; 15m shows momentum roll + rejection wicks after the push.
Lower-high structure maintained; guide line curling down with momentum dots flipping bearish after the probe.
Key Levels
Short/Supply Zone: 3,985–4,015
My Entry: ~3,980 (15m rejection confirmation)
Invalidation: 4,030 on a 30-min close (acceptance above = short thesis off)
Downside Targets: TP1 3,960 • TP2 3,930 • TP3 3,900
Trade Plan
Aggressive Adds (if re-test): Scale 3,985–4,015 on wick/rejection.
Stops: 4,032 (tighter, better R:R) or 4,038 (safer vs quick stop sweep above 4,030/4,035).
Management from my 3,980 entry:
TP1 3,960 → move stop to BE
TP2 3,930
TP3 3,900 → trail above successive lower highs
What I’m Watching
Rejection tells on 5–15m (upper wicks, bearish engulfing) under the MA cluster
Momentum divergence into 3,985–4,015
Mean-reversion fade into layered resistance with defined invalidation. I’ll take partials quickly and let a runner try for deeper levels. Not financial advice — manage your own risk. Written using ChatGPT
A Case Study: GOLD probable price ProjectionA Spectacular and exponential price movement was observed in GOLD for last 3 months.
A Mega BullRun is witnessed in the bullion market across the globe. Gold is considered as the best among multi asset classes. Especially in Indian subcontinent Gold is not only considered as precious metal which holds a greater value but also very auspicious .
Now lets dive deep into its price movement based on Demand Zone Concept.Accordingly how can we position ourselves to get most out of it.
Case1: Daily Demand Zone (DDZ)
If Price reaches Daily Demand Zone then there is high probability of accumulation is observed by market players. and if the price is considered as fair then it may move up. here we can see buying reaction.
Case 2: Weeekly Demand Zone (WDZ)
If price reaches Weekly Demand zone then some more accumulation occurs and then price moves up.
Now the question arises that if we see good buying at daily demand zone then why should price reach weekly demand zone. to understand this i explained briefly about different market players in the follwing link.
How perfectly market players defend their positions is clearly seen in this chart . Please go through it.
WDZ 1 & WDZ 2:
These are the zones where gold was accumulated.
Case 3: Monthly Demand Zone (MDZ)
If ever price reaches this zone it shall be a good level to invest .
Note : price movement may not be as swift as it was in last 3 months.
GC Futures – Are We Flipping Bearish Into Midweek?Tuesday closed below Monday’s low, hinting at a potential shift in sentiment.
Currently, price is approaching a 1H FVG inside the prior Asian range, just below the Weekly Low (W-L) and Daily High (D-H) — a perfect liquidity pocket.
I’m watching for signs of rejection here to confirm a bearish continuation. If price holds above this area, we may see a short squeeze back into higher value.
Bias remains bearish, but confirmation is key.
What are you seeing here — are we setting up for continuation or a fakeout?
#Gold #Futures #GC #DayTrading #SmartMoney #OrderFlow #ICT #NoFOMO
GOLD POSTING SELL TD COMBO 13On October 2, a NINE setup was completed. The setup started on September 22.
TDST is at 3705.8 (Friday September 19, close)
TD COMBO day 13 was completed on Monday October 20 at the close 4359.4
A overbought are are is thus established
The support of the structure TDST is at 3705.8
The markets are overbought and I am looking for them to go lowerSunday the 26th and I'd like to talk about gold and silver and the market in general since it is oversold an equities and gold and silver can go lower but it doesn't necessarily mean the end of gold and silver. In the video I show why gold could go lower and to me it's a function of markets expanding and contracting if gold makes a new high I would expect for it to correct and that's not bad and it's not the end of gold and silver. If you're listening to my stuff you want to look at the market as having buyers and sellers and you need to know where they are within reason and you should be thinking in terms of patterns.
Gold Futures (MGCZ25) – Monthly Close SetupPrice has ranged all week between 4040 and 3930. With an H4 FVG still sitting above, we might see one last liquidity grab before the next directional move.
⚖️ Neutral bias for now — watching for clean displacement at range extremes.
📍 If price reclaims 4040 → possible push into the H4 FVG.
📍 If it rejects and drops below 4020 → lower FVG fills toward 3930 could be next.
#Gold #Futures #ICT #MarketStructure #NOFOMO
Can Gold Rival ATHs?Early last week, we finally saw the much anticipated correction on Gold. This move was likely a liquidation event, shaking out a wave of over-leveraged long positions that had built up during the prior rally.
On the 4H timeframe, price consolidated and accumulated for most of the week following that flush, suggesting that the market may now be rebuilding liquidity for its next major leg.
With weak hands cleared and positioning reset, Gold could now be preparing to retest its ATHs and possibly break into new territory if momentum and fundamentals align.
GOLD REVERSAL Hello! Been on a holiday and am back.
Here is a swing trade on GOLD after a good fall and retracement. Gold has made a hammer on the daily timeframe. One can look for a reversal from here.
Entry- 119000-118800
Target- 120500, 121000, 121700
STOP- The low of hammer candle.
Note- You may enter as close as the low of the hammer candle.
Disclaimer- This is just for educational purpose
Jai Shree Ram.
Gold Technical Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?Market Context
Gold recently hit fresh all-time highs near $4,400 in mid-October after dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, but has since paused as traders digest the news. The price is consolidating around the $4,000 area, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, creating a crucial juncture for gold’s short-term trend.
Technical Breakdown
• Trend:
Gold had been climbing steadily along a rising support trendline , but that line has now been broken . This signals that the recent uptrend may be on hold or reversing in the near term.
• Resistances:
The chart shows a classic double-top pattern , with peaks around 4,210–4,225 . After retesting this zone and failing, sellers took control. There’s also a minor resistance zone near 4,040 , which capped a recent bounce.
In short, bulls must reclaim 4,040 first, a breakout above this would open the path toward 4,210–4,225 .
• Support:
Key support lies near 3,914 . This level held strong during earlier pullbacks even after the trendline broke.
If gold retests 3,914 and holds, it could provide a solid base for buyers, but a decisive break below it would confirm downside continuation.
• RSI (Momentum):
The 14-period RSI is hovering near 50 , showing a neutral stance. We can observe both bearish divergence (as price formed a double top while RSI made a lower high) and bullish divergence (as RSI formed higher lows while price dipped).
This mix of signals means momentum is indecisive , traders should wait for confirmation.
What to Watch Next
1. Price Reaction at Key Levels
Watch how price reacts around 4,040 and 3,914 .
A break and hold above 4,040 could shift short-term momentum bullish, targeting 4,210–4,225 .
A rejection or breakdown below 3,914 could trigger further selling pressure.
2. RSI Confirmation
A sustained move of RSI above 50 supports bullish momentum, especially if price also rises.
Conversely, a drop below 45–40 would reinforce bearish sentiment.
If price breaks above the double top and RSI makes a higher high , bearish divergence is invalidated, confirming strength.
But if price breaks below support and RSI follows with new lows , the bullish divergence fails, favoring sellers.
Summary
Gold’s short-term trend depends on how it reacts at these key levels (4,040 and 3,914) .
The market is at a decision point, either breakout or breakdown.
Combining price structure with RSI confirmation can help traders stay aligned with the next impulsive move.
Analysis by @TraderRahulPal | More analysis & educational content on my profile.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trade responsibly with proper risk management.
short term bias Buy Entry Model🔴 Supply Zones (Potential Short Entry Areas)
Major Supply: 4,360 – 4,400
Origin of the strong sell-off.
Clean imbalance and strong bearish move afterward.
If price retraces back here, it’s a high-probability short zone.
Entry idea:
Sell: 4,370–4,390
Stop: Above 4,410
Target 1: 4,080 (first demand zone)
Target 2: 3,980 (lower demand zone)
Minor Supply: 4,165 – 4,180
This is a recent reaction zone that rejected price.
Can be used for scalping or short-term intraday short setups if price retests.
Sell: 4,165–4,175
Stop: Above 4,190
Target: 4,080 (nearest demand)
🟢 Demand Zones (Potential Long Entry Areas)
Near-Term Demand: 4,050 – 4,080
The most recent rally base before price bounced higher.
Price has respected this area already once, showing buyers stepping in.
Entry idea:
Buy: 4,060–4,080
Stop: Below 4,040
Target: 4,160 (supply)
R:R ≈ 1:2
Major Demand: 3,970 – 4,010
Strong base formed before the previous impulsive move upward.
If price breaks below 4,050, this would be the next strong long zone.
Buy: 3,980–4,000
Stop: Below 3,950
Target 1: 4,080
Target 2: 4,170
📊 Overall Bias
Short-term bias: Neutral to slightly bullish within the range (4,050–4,160).
Medium-term bias: Bearish while below 4,360 (major supply).
Expect possible range trading between 4,050 and 4,160 before a breakout.
A break below 4,050 could send price toward the 3,970 demand zone.
A break above 4,180 could lead to a retest of the 4,360 supply.
Quiet in FX Options — But Gold Is Heating Up
Over the past 24 hours, major currency options saw little of interest.
In contrast, precious metals — especially Gold — are attracting serious attention.
Let’s break down the key developments:
🔹 Observation #1: A New Bullish (But Hedged) Portfolio Appears
(See risk profile on screenshot.)
A new SMART option portfolio has entered the market:
Bullish bias, but with a built-in hedge — which reduces its predictive value.
If price drops below $3,800, the portfolio starts generating profit for its owner (via the hedge).
Built on the February 2025 futures contract, under an option series expiring in December 2025.
📌 Yes, it sounds confusing — and it is.
Option series expire, but futures live on.
This creates what we call "expiry risk" — a topic for another deep-dive article.
🔹 Observation #2: Put Activity at 3900 (Dec Series)
There’s growing activity in puts at the 3900 strike — moderate bullish positioning or support.
The bullish structure is hedged — not a pure directional bet.
Bearish positioning remains active.
Price has not yet shown signs of moving toward the main long setup.
I’d recommend at least 2–7 days of observation before considering any reversal trades.
📌 And here's why:
It’s rare for price to move immediately toward the target of a large, long-dated portfolio.
More often, there’s a delay of several days — especially when expiry is still far out.
Watch the flow.
Trade only when the edge is clear.
May the data-driven approach be with you!
Gold Sitting on the Edge – Liquidity Sweep Before the Bounce?Monday didn’t give much movement, and price is now hovering around last week’s low.
I’m expecting a liquidity sweep of the current levels — likely taking out the Daily Low before moving to fill the full Weekly FVG below.
Short-term bias is bearish for the Asian session, but I’ll be watching closely for a shift once that FVG is filled.
If absorption shows up after the sweep, I’ll flip long for the bigger move higher into midweek.
#FuturesTrading #Gold #ICT #LiquiditySweep #NOFOMO






















