MSTR Wave II bottom?NASDAQ:MSTR is finally catching a bid from the triple support zone of the Fibonacci golden pocket, S1 pivot and High Volume Node.
It must overcome the daily 200EMA to add confidence to a reversal and wave II bottom being in.
Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence from oversold. Vanguard disclosed massive MSTR holdings ad the sentiment is awful online adding confluence to a bottom soon.
Wave III target is the R5 daily pivot $544, losing the support zone has a downside target of $232
Safe trading
STRF trade ideas
MSTR....set-up not looking goodNASDAQ:MSTR is below 9, 50, 200SMA! That's about the clearest red flag you can see. There could be some volatility, but would be very careful as it crosses down 330, 300 and then possibly the next support line is further down as people dump hard. CBOE:MSTZ is a nice inverse play here! Best of luck
MSTR - Trendline Support vs. Supply Cap!MSTR has been overall bullish on the daily, respecting a rising trendline since last year. Price is coiling right beneath the 330–350 supply band after multiple rejections.
This area is key 🔑. It overlaps prior supply and the rising trendline—clean confluence. If bulls defend the trendline and we see a clean daily close above 350, momentum could extend toward 400 first, then 470–520 inside the broader range 🚀.
If the trendline gives way, I’ll look for a deeper dip toward 260–240 demand before bulls try again. Until then, structure favors the upside while the line holds.
What’s your plan => buy strength above 350 or wait for a retest on the trendline first? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC Exhaustion at $100K Could Trigger $MSTR Structural WeaknessI’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s price action, and buyers look exhausted at these levels. Since July, BTC has been topping out. There’s strong support at the $100K area — with the 200MA right around $103K — this zone is the battleground. If buyers lose it, we’re looking at a possible break of structure at $100K.
We all know NASDAQ:MSTR isn’t really a software company anymore — it’s basically a Bitcoin Treasury play. The model is simple: raise capital (debt, equity), buy more BTC, repeat. That means if BTC breaks lower, MSTR usually gets hit even harder. Leverage cuts both ways.
For me, $317 is the key level. If MSTR loses that, I’m targeting $300. I’ve already picked up some long puts at the $295 strike. My rule: if the premium drops 30%, I cut it as a wrong play. If it holds, I’ll ride it until it’s at-the-money.
As always — manage risk like your survival depends on it. Because it does.
MSTR back to ATH?1. MSTR has been trading in a long-term upward channel, respecting both support and resistance lines.
2. The current pullback seems to be a consolidation phase within this bullish structure.
3. Price recently touched the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting strong technical support.
4. Historically, each bounce from this area has led to significant upward moves.
5. Leading analysts like Tom Lee expect Bitcoin to surge in Q4 and potentially reach $200K per coin, a quarter that has historically been very strong for crypto.
6. The correlation between MSTR and Bitcoin remains very strong, amplifying upside potential.
7. As long as Bitcoin continues its bullish trend, MSTR is positioned to benefit disproportionately.
8. The recent descending wedge on the chart is typically a bullish reversal pattern.
9. A breakout above this wedge could trigger a strong rally back toward previous highs.
10. Given the technical setup and Bitcoin’s momentum, MSTR has a realistic path to a new ATH and potentially beyond.
$MSTR to push above $400 again?NASDAQ:MSTR had it's 3rd touch off this blue trend line and usually when it does that, it forms a strong move in the other direction.
As long as this trend line holds, I think it's likely that we can see a move back above $400.
I've marked off key levels as resistance.
Took calls between $367.5 and $410.
MSTR CORRECTION OCT 2025Price action in MSTR shows rejection from the 350–320 supply zone, with institutional selling pressure still present. The breakdown opens risk of gap filling below 300, with a weekly bottom as the next reference. Heavy absorption could only resume if the price reclaims 320.
# Upside target: 350–320 if reclaimed
# Downside target: 280 gap zone, extended to 200–140 support
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Breaking: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings Signal Breakout Current Price: $309.06
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $325.00
- T2 = $340.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $300.00
- S2 = $290.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in MicroStrategy.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to gain significant attention from traders and institutional players due to its extensive Bitcoin holdings, which expose the stock to cryptocurrency price movements. With Bitcoin recently pushing through key resistance levels above $27,500, traders are anticipating a correlated upside move in MicroStrategy's share price. The company’s strategic pivot to become a leveraged Bitcoin play has made its stock highly sensitive to BTC price volatility. This relationship is expected to continue driving momentum, especially as the cryptocurrency market broadly shifts into what many traders view as the early stages of a bullish cycle.
The stock is also supported by the company's improving operational metrics outside of Bitcoin. MicroStrategy has maintained resilience through software revenues, which contribute a steady income stream despite Bitcoin’s volatility. Analysts note that this dual revenue model enhances the company's long-term risk-reward positioning, particularly in bullish market conditions.
**Recent Performance:**
MicroStrategy’s stock has traded in a relatively narrow range between $300 and $320 over the last three weeks, consolidating after a sharp move earlier this quarter. A decisive breakout above $320 would suggest acceleration toward higher price targets. The stock has found robust support near $300, a level that has held firmly in recent sessions as Bitcoin's price remained stable.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical analysts highlight that MicroStrategy’s current chart setup indicates potential for a rally. The stock is forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which typically signals a breakout higher. Key resistance is located at $320, with a successful breach likely pushing prices toward the first target of $325 and eventually $340. Additionally, both Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings suggest improving momentum on the daily timeframe.
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s recent gain in market sentiment following ETF-related news has created a positive spillover effect for MicroStrategy. Experts agree that any sustained rally in Bitcoin could be amplified in MSTR’s stock performance, given the firm’s Bitcoin-dominated balance sheet.
**News Impact:**
Recent developments indicating heightened institutional interest in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have reignited optimism about the cryptocurrency's medium- to long-term outlook. MicroStrategy, by virtue of its significant Bitcoin holdings of over 150,000 BTC, stands to benefit directly from a more favorable regulatory environment and heightened adoption. Furthermore, the company’s proactive approach to acquiring more Bitcoin during market corrections signals confidence in its long-term strategy, which aligns with broader market enthusiasm.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Traders should consider taking a long position in MicroStrategy as the stock appears poised for a breakout above its key resistance levels. The correlation to Bitcoin, along with bullish technical and fundamental factors, suggests strong upside potential. Stop levels at $300 and $290 provide clear risk management guidelines, while targets at $325 and $340 represent meaningful profit zones. This trade is well-supported by MicroStrategy’s operational resilience and enhanced exposure to cryptocurrency tailwinds, making it an attractive opportunity in the current market environment.
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MSTR further winding up with a 1-2 1-2 1-2? Looks like MSTR might have just finished and ending diagonal for another wave c of 2. This could also just be a 1-2 1-2 still but so far counting it as a 1-2 1-2 1-2.
Either way, it looks like it is ready to rip to 380. Will see in the next couple of sessions how this plays out.
MSTR - Here comes #5 at the CenterlineRemember when I said, I do it again Sam?
Nothing changed. Only the price in the consolidation at P4.
This will temporarily end at P5 (Yellow Count), where I'll take my profit. With a little pressure, price will even make it to the L-MLH.
Then I'll relax and watch, how the Chickens run around and create new opportunity. 🐔🐓
Don't be a Chicken, be the 🦊 Fox 🦊, be clever and have patience.
Happy new week all §8-)
The Next Big Crypto Trade Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K.
In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable.
Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario.
I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high).
The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure.
A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point.
This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.
MSTR ZONES OF CONFLUENCECalled this out some time back. Sometimes MSTR gives the cleanest setups on where price is headed as the Mnav and its tradable premium to Bitcoin decouple - a result of shareholder dilution, CAMT tax obligations, as well as interest payments on its preferred. Because of this, riding the down trend is clear and easy until respectfully breaks the upper threshold of support turned resistance - 360.
down trend looks to rejoin 300 as the trend continuesUnless we see a significant breakaway from the descending triangle, it could widen and turn to symmetrical which aligns in with the ascending line set to rejoin its pattern. That could be a major shift if it bounces off resistance on the current pattern first.
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment.
You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle.
Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again.
MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October.
Where have you heard that October prediction before?
Coincidence? 🥸
Breaking: MicroStrategy’s Price Action Signals Key Recovery AheaCurrent Price: $344.75
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $364.50
- T2 = $385.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $332.00
- S2 = $318.50
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that the aggregated market perspectives on MicroStrategy highlight a clear path for potential upside, supported by informed consensus and reduced cognitive bias.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy’s strategic alignment with Bitcoin continues to attract investor attention as the cryptocurrency market shows signs of stabilization in 2025. The firm holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally—a position that amplifies its sensitivity to BTC price movements but also provides outsized returns during bullish periods. The company’s ongoing emphasis on expanding its business intelligence solutions aligns with broader enterprise adoption trends, delivering incremental revenue streams beyond Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
From a technical perspective, the recent consolidation near $340 has built a strong base of support with increasing trade volume, suggesting positive accumulation by institutional investors. MicroStrategy’s price is approaching its 50-day moving average, which signals momentum improving and reflects a reversal pattern that could pave the way for sustained bullish advances.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the last quarter, MicroStrategy has demonstrated resilience, maintaining stability near critical support levels even amidst fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Year-to-date, the stock has gained approximately 35%, outperforming broader technology and analytics peers. Recent sessions highlight gradual upward movement, with the price moving within a defined range between $330 and $350, subtly hinting at a breakout scenario. Today’s closing price of $344.75 represents a 2% gain from last week’s low of $338.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical analysts emphasize that MicroStrategy’s long-term price trajectory remains highly correlated with Bitcoin’s price cycle. However, experts predict a favorable near-term outlook given Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory towards $27,000 in September 2025. Fundamentally, appreciation in MicroStrategy stock reflects confidence among shareholders in the company’s unique Bitcoin-first treasury philosophy, alongside improved earnings guidance driven by its core analytics platform.
On the technical front, analysts point to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above 50, signaling bullish momentum. Additionally, the stock is forming higher lows on the daily chart—a sign of buyers stepping in at stronger levels, further validating entry into LONG positions.
**News Impact:**
Recent headlines reveal that MicroStrategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing an additional $147 million worth during Q3 2025. This aggressive acquisition could reinforce its position as a leader in corporate cryptocurrency adoption. Positive sentiment stemming from this announcement aligns with growing global acceptance of Bitcoin as institutional liquidity strengthens. Moreover, MicroStrategy’s leadership team has reiterated optimism for business intelligence growth, which could cushion short-term operational risks independent of cryptocurrency volatility.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Given MicroStrategy’s strong correlation with Bitcoin, its demonstrated resilience, and promising technical signals, traders should consider a LONG position at the current price of $344.75. The operational diversification strategy and Bitcoin’s steady recovery create bullish tailwinds that provide clear upside targets. Set stops at $332.00 and $318.50 to protect against adverse price movements, while targeting $364.50 and $385.00 for potential gains in the medium term.
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MicroStrategy (MSTR) Technical Analysis – September 2025 Technical Outlook:
• The stock is currently trading around $344 after a solid bounce from a key demand zone at $300 – $320.
• The MACD indicator shows a recent bullish crossover, with green histogram bars starting to form → signaling a potential continuation of upward momentum.
• On the daily chart, the first resistance zone is at $400 – $405, followed by an extended target at $440.
Trade Setup (Swing Idea):
• Entry Zone: $340 – $345.
• Stop Loss: Below $290 (a breakdown would invalidate the bullish setup).
• Targets:
• TP1: $400 (partial take-profit).
• TP2: $405.
• TP3: $440.
The Risk/Reward ratio (RRR) is attractive here (above 2:1).
Analysts’ View:
• Most analysts rate MSTR as Strong Buy / Buy.
• The 12-month price targets range between $530 – $600, with some optimistic projections going as high as $700.
• Key risk: MSTR’s performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin (BTC). Any strong BTC retracement could weigh heavily on the stock.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy shows bullish technical signals after rebounding from strong support, supported by momentum indicators and positive analyst outlook.
Still, strict risk management is crucial, given the stock’s volatility and its dependence on Bitcoin’s price movements.
$MSTR Falling Below the 50WMA in 2021 Bull Market Here's a look at last cycle where NASDAQ:MSTR trading under the 50WMA for several weeks led to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC bear market.
The reason why this was so significant last cycle is because they were responsible for such a large share of BTC buy pressure.
This cycle we have lots of other treasury companies, with many more to come, as well as ETFs of course, so I'm not as concerned with this PA.
MSTR is still in a downward channelWhile it looks promising that MSTR is making some small gains, it's still in a very real downward channel. These type of gains are typically very short lived as many in this space are short term / profit takers. Technicals and soon UltraShort signals are confirm this, but would not bet the fam on any of this f&ckery!