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E-mini Light Crude Oil Futures

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OIL WYCKOFF PHASEPhase A – Stopping the Downtrend SC (Selling Climax): Heavy selling pressure absorbed by strong hands. AR (Automatic Rally): First sign of demand entering the market. ST (Secondary Test): Price revisits the lower range to confirm support. Phase B – Building a Cause Market continues ranging within support and resistance. ST Phase B represents testing and liquidity grabs within the range. Purpose: to absorb remaining supply and trap impatient sellers. Phase C – Spring (Manipulation) Price dips into the lower accumulation zone to trap breakout sellers. Strong rejection signals institutional buying and start of accumulation completion. Phase D – Markup Initiation LPS (Last Point of Support): Higher low formed after the spring. SOS (Sign of Strength): Price breaks above resistance with increased momentum. Market structure shifts to bullish, confirming accumulation completion. Phase E – Trend Continuation (Projection) Expecting price to retest the breakout level before continuation toward higher liquidity pools.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Liquidity_Flow_SMC_ICT
Market Expectations Misfire as OPEC Plus Delivers a Smaller HikeOPEC+ surprised markets on 05/Oct (Sun) with a smaller-than-expected output hike, triggering a rebound in crude prices the following day. In contrast, WTI had trended lower the previous week amid expectations of a larger supply increase, rising U.S. inventories, and cautious sentiment. This paper examines the volatility surrounding OPEC+ meetings, highlighting how market expectations often diverge from actual decisions, driving sharp price swings and uncertainty. WTI HIT 4-MONTH LOW ON OPEC+ HIKE SPECULATION WTI crude oil futures fell 7.4% in the week ending on 03/Oct, with prices falling for four consecutive sessions between 29/Sep – 02/Oct. The decline was driven by expectations of a significant increase in OPEC+ supply. OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a modest 137,000 bpd output hike for November, matching October’s increase. The markets initially anticipated a much larger adjustment for November, with speculation centering on a potential 500,000 bpd hike as Saudi Arabia pushed to regain market share. Although OPEC dismissed media reports on X of such a move as “misleading,” traders continued to price in the possibility of a sizeable increase. Source: CME Group OPEC+ Watch Tool as of markets on 3rd October 2025 Notably, CME’s OPEC Watch tool reflected a bearish sentiment on 03/Oct (Fri). Source: CME Group OPEC+ Watch Tool as of markets on 3rd October 2025 Until 26/Sep, the consensus leaned toward a pause or small hike. However, since then, expectations for a moderate or significant increase rose sharply, adding further downward pressure on crude prices. Nonetheless, the cartel’s decision was a surprise. According to Reuters , this was caused by internal disagreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Russia pushed for a smaller hike to avoid pressuring prices, as sanctions limit its ability to raise output. Saudi Arabia, with ample spare capacity, preferred a larger increase to regain its market share more quickly. Overall, OPEC+ maintained a positive outlook on the global economy, citing steady growth, healthy market fundamentals, and low oil inventories. LOW INVENTORIES AND SOFTER U.S. OUTPUT OFFER SUPPORT FOR WTI Amid expectations of a larger OPEC+ supply hike, WTI also faced pressure from cautious market sentiment as the U.S. government shutdown persisted, and weak economic data weighed on demand outlook. However, prices found support from persistently low U.S. crude inventories, which remain well below the five-year average and near the lower end of the historical range. Source: EIA Despite a slight weekly build, overall supply conditions remain tight. With WTI prices easing, U.S. production has also edged lower, a trend that could further restrict inventory growth and lend near-term support to crude prices. CONCLUSION OPEC+ controls more than half of the global oil supply, making its output decisions a major driver of crude prices. Source: CME’s CVOL Index Since the group began unwinding supply cuts in 2025, each meeting has triggered noticeable price swings, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to these decisions. Source: TradingView While mapping price direction is challenging, options allow traders to gain exposure without directly owning the commodity. They provide flexibility to capitalise on increased volatility around OPEC+ meetings. The following examples illustrate how options can be strategically used: Long Call : Seeing the inventory lag, a trader could have taken a bullish stance on the OPEC meeting outcome through a long call on WTI Crude Monday weekly options. On 02/Oct (Thu), the option had settled at USD 0.77 per barrel, implying a premium of USD 770 per lot (contract size = 1,000). By 06/Oct (Mon), after a bullish OPEC outcome had lifted crude prices, the option traded at USD 1.12 per barrel as of 4 AM ET. A single-lot position would have gained USD 350 (USD 1,120 – USD 770). This showed a strong return relative to risk, with losses limited to the premium paid. It underscored how weekly options allowed precise positioning around specific events. Long Put : Expecting a strong output hike from OPEC+, a trader could have taken a long put position on WTI Crude Monday weekly options. On 02/Oct (Thu), the option had settled at USD 1.07 per barrel, or USD 1,070 per lot (contract size = 1,000 barrels). By 06/Oct (Mon), after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected output hike, the option traded at USD 0.01 per barrel as of 4 AM ET. A single-lot position would have lost USD 1,060 (USD 1,070 – USD 10). Although the trade resulted in a loss, the downside was limited to the option premium. In contrast, holding a futures position in the same direction would have led to significantly larger losses. Overall, options allow traders to participate in volatile price movements while keeping potential losses limited, making them a valuable tool for strategic positioning around uncertainty. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
Crude oil - Sell around 61.00, targeting 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Crude oil has recently begun to decline on the daily chart. Another major support level is around 55. We remain bearish on crude oil. Note that the crude oil contract delivery period is approaching, and it may rebound technically. Each rebound presents a selling opportunity. The recently released crude oil inventory data is also disappointing, which is discouraging buying. Continue shorting crude oil if it rebounds to 61.00. Fundamental Analysis: The US government shutdown has been in effect for 14 days now, and the market should have grown accustomed to it. Currently, the market is only just beginning to experience any impact, but it has largely become accustomed. We will continue to monitor the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy. Trading Recommendations: Crude oil - Sell around 61.00, targeting 60.00-58.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSuperman
CRUDE OIL BEARISH MOVEMENT - WYCKOFF METHOD🧠 Wyckoff Distribution in Action (Phase B–D Transition) Instrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (3-Minute) Concept: Wyckoff Distribution × Smart Money Logic 🔍 Market Narrative PSY → BC → AR → ST → SOW → UT (B) — structure clearly shows the composite operator distributing above 59.00. The Upthrust (UT) confirms liquidity grab above the FVG (59.00–59.10) zone — a classic false breakout trapping breakout buyers. High-volume rejection at UT → shift in market structure confirms Phase C → D transition. ⚙️ Key Confluences FVG + Order Block Alignment: UT formed right inside a 3-min OB nested in higher FVG zone — supply stacked on HTF. SOW (B): Weak demand reaction showing reduced effort to rally. LPSY Formation: Lower-high retest entries aligning with bearish OB (smart money selling the retest). Volume Confirmation: Climax volume during UT, fading on pullbacks — textbook distribution. 🎯 Trade Bias Bias: Short Entry Zone: LPSY retest near 58.80–58.85 Target: 58.20 (previous demand zone / Phase D markdown objective) Invalidation: Close above UT high (~59.10)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Liquidity_Flow_SMC_ICT
Macro Recap & Crude Oil Trade SetupNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! Markets Overview Markets have largely shrugged off the U.S. government shutdown, with major indices pressing to fresh all-time highs. While the headline optimism continues, it’s important to note that over one million federal employees remain furloughed, leading to delays in key economic data releases and potential short-term distortions in macro readings. Despite the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projecting stronger growth, underlying household dynamics suggest stress ahead. Lower-income consumers, already contending with tighter credit and depleted savings, are likely to see further deterioration in spending and sentiment, which may weigh on Q4 consumption trends. Market Positioning & Flows While equities appear to be in a new leg of the bull market, positioning data suggests this may not be entirely organic. According to publicly available data many hedge funds continue to under-perform the S&P 500, forcing catch-up buying after missing the April lows. This dynamic may also be contributing to the current momentum-driven equity strength, even as macro headwinds persist. Metals Performance Precious metals have been standout performers year-to-date, reflecting declining real yields and persistent inflation hedging flows: • Gold: +42.46% YTD • Silver: +56.88% YTD • Platinum: +71.29% YTD (Source: Finviz YTD Futures Performance) This rally underscores a broader rotation toward real assets, consistent with expectations of lower real interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar trajectory. Crude Oil Technical & Trade Setup Crude oil prices reached $66.42 in September before retracing lower. The recent OPEC+ announcement of additional voluntary cut unwinding at a pace of 137 kbpd for November adds a modest supply-side loosening. From a technical perspective, price action has bounced at the yearly Volume Profile’s Value Area Low (VAL), a key area of structural support. Current positioning shows: • Price trading below Q2 VAL • Price trading above yearly VAL (yVAL) Scenario 1: Long on Reclaim of Q2 VAL • Setup: Watch for crude to confirm acceptance back above the Q2 VAL as a support level. • Trigger: Long entry on confirmation of acceptance above VAL. • Target: o First target: 2025 mid-range at $62.97 o Secondary target: Yearly open at $65.17 Scenario 2 : Long on Deeper Retest • Setup: Should price reject Q2 VAL, patience is warranted. • Entry Zone: Wait for price to move lower toward yVAL and March 2025 low confluence. • Target: Return move toward 2025 mid-range ($62.97). Despite near-term noise from policy uncertainty and supply adjustments, the broader technical structure favors accumulation on weakness rather than chasing momentum. Crude remains range-bound but biased for upside stabilization into Q4, supported by resilient demand and disciplined OPEC+ management.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeClear
CRUDE OIL (WTI) BUY SETUPCrude oil has pulled back to a strong support zone, aligning perfectly with the bottom of its ascending structure. Price action is showing signs of buyers stepping in, which could lead to a natural continuation of the uptrend. 🛢 Additional bullish factors: 🟢 Price reacted strongly from support, indicating accumulation. 🟢 Supply-side tensions and global demand outlook continue to support higher prices. 🟢 Technical structure favors a push toward higher highs if support holds. 📈 TP Levels: TP1: 65.88 TP2: 66.65 TP3: 67.39 TP4: 68.13 SL below support 🚫
PYTH:WTI3!Long
by Charts_M7M
Light Crude Oil (CL) Weakness Expected to PersistThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for oil indicates that a decline from the September 26, 2025, high is unfolding as a five-wave impulse. Starting from that peak, wave ((i)) concluded at $60.40, as depicted on the 45-minute chart. Subsequently, wave ((ii)) rallied in a zigzag Elliott Wave pattern. From the low of wave ((i)), wave (a) reached $62.12, followed by a pullback in wave (b) to $60.72. The upward move in wave (c) peaked at $62.93, completing wave ((ii)) at a higher degree. Oil then continued its descent in wave ((iii)), structured as an impulsive sequence. From the wave ((ii)) high, wave (i) dropped to $61.78, and wave (ii) corrected to $62.87. Wave (iii) extended lower to $58.22, with a bounce in wave (iv) reaching $60.17. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $62.93 holds, any rally is expected to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, leading to further declines. The potential downside target lies between $53.2 and $56.9, based on the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)). This analysis suggests continued bearish momentum, with limited upside potential unless the key pivot is breached.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Oil Finally Breaks the Range — Downside Momentum EmergingAfter weeks of sideways, messy price action where most traders got chopped up, CL has finally chosen a direction. During that entire range-bound phase, we stayed on the sidelines and focused on cleaner markets instead — waiting patiently for this exact moment of clarity. Now price has broken below the range lows with the 5/10/20 EMAs stacked cleanly beneath the 50 EMA, confirming downside momentum and the start of a new expansion phase. For the first time in weeks, structure is aligned and directional — no more fakeouts, no more noise. This is the kind of clean context where money is made, not lost. The plan now is simple: wait for a lower-high pullback into the EMA stack and look for continuation setups if structure holds. Questions for discussion: – Did you avoid trading this chop or get caught inside it? – Are you seeing similar clean shifts forming in other markets right now? – Do you prefer to sit out until context like this forms, or trade through the noise?
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by SirCharIes