DMT trade ideas
Dow transportation index- Will inverse H&S breakout matter?
On the weekly chart, the index has retaken rising trend line last week, but has failed to pierce through slanting inverse head and shoulder neckline level.
Even if the breakout happens this week, the question is will it matter? I would not give much importance to the formation…simply because inverse head and shoulder pattern is a reversal pattern, which needs to occur at the bottom of the trend and not around the top as can be seen now.
The real bullish break would a weekly close above the falling trend line (red). On the lower side, a break below rising trend line – black would suggest a re-test of right shoulder bottom of 7029.41 levels.
DOWT trending lowerWho doesn't believe the transports tell us where we are headed? Advanced rail orders from energy companies alone are down huuuuge. No coal to ship, unless your are a ship. What will a completed pipe line do to rail orders, things that make you go hmmmm. Who is really behind the blocking of that pipeline, perhaps Warren Buffet, or anyone else who bought all that rail stock a few years ago? hmmmm. Plants use fuel yes, and transport mostly people, but rail cars are the key to economic activity and future growth. All aboard the train to a recession.
Dow Transportation is lagging behindDow transportation index (on the left had side) is still trading inside a falling trend line and way below the record high. On the other hand, we have Dow 30 which is just a 100 points away from record high.
Note on both the charts, daily RSI is breaking higher from the falling trend. For Dow30 it means, fresh highs are possible. However, for Dow Transportation index, a breakout in the RSI won't help, simply because the index first needs to take out the falling trend line.
Investors should watch out for a failure at falling trend line hurdle in Dow transportation index as that would suggest a correction in Dow30 index.
Dowt and correlations observationsSo brexit staring us in the face... DOWT, which is a leader is in a descending wedge pattern, while the artificially inflated stocks market is flat. Dowt price and its rsi is in sync, while other markets ... price is inflated far above its rsi. price and rsi have to match or at least come together for reality. the question is, will the euro gain strength from the vote, whatever they decide, and will the dollar fall further, and what will oil do? Oil is ready to drop. Not enough rigs taken off line, and no new demand, in fact demand is worse. Price can't hold here. Reality is dowt continues its descent,. and other markets follow. Its just a matter of time.
DJ Transportation almost hit the H&S targetDowt Transportation Avg is close to the target of the Head&Shoulders pattern formed on weekly chart, which is the next support also 6250/6300.
I am following the DowTheory which says that the two DJ must confirm in order to have a healthy move. From my point of view Dowt Transportation Avg is leading in this case (as it did in August 2015). I am not saying that Dowi Industrial Avg will fall as Dowt Transportation Avg (almost 30% from the peak), but is a big probability for the Dowi Industrial Avg to have a big downside move.
dowt has lead, and continues to lead us downtransports have been and continue to lead the way, and heard a trucking report today, further reducing their 1st qtr 2016 outlook, not good, this is not railroad cars, this is trucks hauling groceries, etc. descending wedge in clear down trend. to 7000 maybe.
Dow Jones Transportation Average Hinting Of Trouble AheadWe normally don't publish equity ideas but this chart is worth noting as it directly relates to the U.S. economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are highly correlated for many reasons as you can imagine. A quick look at the chart and you will see the current divergence in that correlation. Simple said, if an economy is not producing many goods than there is less need for shipping, indicating the economy is slowing or struggling. Historically the Dow Jones Transportation Average leads the Dow Jones Industrial Average and at the very least lends confirmation to the Industrial Average.
DJTA Index, MDJTA made a DOUBLE TOP between April of 1998-1999 before the onset of bear market. It made another TRIPLE TOP between May of 2006-2008 before the market crashed. Both of these tops have MACD Bearish Divergence associated with it. Hence i would make a bold analysis that DJTA is making the 1st top of the current market top now. Whether current market top will be a Single/Double/Triple Top before the market goes bear, we shall wait and see. So far there isnt any conclusive MACD Bearish Divergence to talk about!
The average interval between the double and triple top was about 8 years. Therefore, we are likely to see DJTA consolidate until at least summer of 2015.
The uptrend line is not broken yet though my earlier DJIA analysis shown that the uptrend line had been broken. In order to see a substantial correction, DJTA has to break the uptrend line to confirm and tally with what DJIA is showing.
DOWT, is it to much ~10000?Technical, with the bullish hidden divergence where price doesn't fall alot but MACD looks oversold, i bet that a reversal is nearing, which continues the uptrend
and we have 3 consistent weeks of dip buyers making the 8600 support really strong
it looks like a bull flag if it breaks UP
i will presume IYT also looks the same (which will be a good long), will attach IYT as well as the DOWT 20 constituents chart below
NOTE: a break down below 8600 and a weekly close below the 2009 uptrend line will not support the bullishness case