claydoctor

claydoctor

Late Feb The markets and DXY were synced. But as DXY bounced, the markets didn't like it, and danced alone to its lows. So the dollar strength, what do we say about it. Was it the chicken or the egg? Did sellers of stocks run to the dollar for safe haven, when they realized it was more than a pullback? Or was there international currency forces at work to...

claydoctor

NVDA similar abc correction to last time. And last time segment ab was less than bc. Way way too much happening bad, would take something unimaginably good to take this market higher. DXY action is at issue. Same type of down action before the markets. DXY has been oppo markets, and it turned down last time, a few days later the markets followed when it...

claydoctor

NVDA, ABC correction wave forming just as in March previously, Money flow, and many other indicators, are saying overbought, needs to drop, again. C would be right at 200 MA, .618 Fib retrace, etc. AKA lots of support there.

claydoctor

I posted this chart a few years ago. Those that follow know this. I have updated it, but it still has the same outcome. S&P at 555. How we get there, and why, don't know, don't care. Well I care, of course, because I don't want it to happen, but who cares what I think. I say I don't care because if one thing doesn't bring us there, something else will do the...

claydoctor

So take a bite out of the Apple, or not, mmmmm? Not spiritual? If we remove that talk, Apple stock at tremendous support, reversal zone, right at the strongest Fib retrace also. Lots of potential for good news dripping back for the market to eat of, maybe feast on, for a "V: recovery, short term next week. Earnings may be positive for those who report, right at...

claydoctor

On the weekly, big picture, all indicators are at levels the last time we had a long range, with similar pin action, and a break out of that range bound time frame to the Bull side of things. from the bottom of the range to the top of the next range, green arrow, we rose 37.47 percent. If we project that this time, with this break out, we are looking at a top of...

claydoctor

What does that say, if it is real? And I am just watching this for now. Its usually a leader.

claydoctor

So how many times does a breakout need to fail to define a range? Enough to get the job done is the answer. I would say fifth time is the charm for the upper boundary, and so we head back down the the lower, and lower yet, if history repeats.

claydoctor

The red line is the lower trend of the year long consolidation triangle. No wonder the direction has stalled right at this moment. If we go lower, we go very much lower, if we bounce, it catches a market loading up with shorts (like chicken little - and the democratic media - running all over town saying the sky is falling, the sky is falling) on a huuuuuuuge...

claydoctor

Does history repeat? Smaller triangle than the first, but all the same pin action. Reaching the exit of the triangle or a bounce higher, the mixed action on these lines indicate its waiting for steering currents, just like Dorian did. IMO, we exit downward, and markets will follow in this currency war, trade war, and rumors or wars driven times.

claydoctor

see chart

claydoctor

TNX has been in a channel for a long time, forming a base of a triple bottom or an inverted head and shoulders. Once the right shoulder or third touch is made, we go up from there. If we don't the bond market (inverted) will go pop, and eventually burst. This is a fantastic indicator that most don't factor in. Dollar strength... if it continues to go higher,...

claydoctor

Stocks are inverse to bonds. Take the measily little rate your being offered for safety? TLT needs to touch the top trend line once again before reversing. Worst scenario, it breaks through the top trend line, and we have a market crash with a sound you can hear on Mars. That actually could happen because we are in currency fantasy land. Paying someone to hold...

claydoctor

see chart for brief notes, dollar simply cannot grow any stronger, eventually backfires on those devaluing theirs. Currencies have to be in balance, or their is no system, the system fails from within.

claydoctor

IWM consolidation triangle, as are all others, and triangle break out between 60 and 70% of their duration, this one being about 170 days. All indicators confirm, and Bollinger is at top of channel now. So do we break lout up, or back down for 3rd touch on bottom TL? This would be the 3rd touch to the top TL. Earnings season effects are essentially over, what...

claydoctor

Lots of lines, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. I am not the wizard of oz, just a carnival master of ceremonies. Just my thoughts, possibilities, events to effect, and of course there is the political unknown event that would mess this up big time. But the markets have been ignoring those mostly, unless there actually is one that matters, like...

claydoctor

2000 tech bubble all over again, but this time with a bit different flavor, data breach, mining, legal, entirely inflated FB values, and others, based on the "public trust", now doesn't trust them anymore, sounds like a black swan event to me, not to mention all the baby black ducklings waddling around.

claydoctor

Tech suffering generally now, weak all over, Apple has farthest to fall, the bigger they are... First FB, tech ill effects on society, politics, etc coming to play, we don't test tech before we disperse it. We test a medicine for ten years, products trials, etc, and all tech just gets used, without any regulation or testing on what it does to us. That is...