40 years of equities rising, could it be its time for bonds to take hold. A 40 year trend broken clearly and with power, and the FED doing all it can to keep its rise down, yet increasing rates? Its about the next election, and the pivot point of a country. Its the economy stupid, is the election base, but they wont speak it, they are covering it up. ...
Been comparing the past two VIX 5 wave patterns. Wave 5 really gets going. Repeat this timer again, debt ceiling, Taiwan invasion by China, Iran V US shipping, Ukraine debacle, Biden bribes looking really real - impeachment pending and his own party will do it, bank failures increasing, commercial real estate foreclosures rapidly increasing, do I need to go on...
Oil in wave 3 of 5, and will need the power leg to breach the major TL, retest, resume down in "recession" full force move, perhaps demand shock event triggers large wave 5 down. Previous 5 wave timeline looks similar, with strong 5 leg.
Bollinger bands are a tell of a big move coming when they constrict. They are tightening historically the most ever, yes ever. Which means whatever has caused them to get this way is an artificial market force, a lie which has delayed this move, so they overtighten. Overlaying the SPX with BDI, we see the 2020 crisis demand shock take place, first the BDI,...
spx is finishing a three drivers pattern, with its fib retraces right on. Its not an HS as many say. I feel the idiots in washington DC will not resolve the debt ceiling successfully, adding great volatility to the markets. These lines all "line up" almost as if by design. These drops coming up are wave patterns, and fibs almost exactly, again, as if by...
OIL is heading for another repeat, see 2020? Demand shock caused this pattern with Covid 19. Another lock down coming perhaps, that "they" know about and we don't? And why did they do that surprise production cut to artificially inflate price recently, just to have this price failure due to recession or worse fears. Maybe its just that, but financial control...
IWM, so which percentage down will it wind up being? 86% perhaps? So many waves, so many trend lines which are "right on", and amazing actually, how accurate and right on they are over such a time period.
VIXY is poised for a run now. Chyna inflation going to spike ours, and FED is watching they are fully aware. They may think they have a handle on US CPI but not Chyna's. And Japan still easing against the tide of others, just asking begging for more inflation there. While third world country's currencies failing, indicating huge inflation. And we print false...
HAL wants lower from here, indicators have a death cross. Dreamers are bullish. Realists are Bears here.
DXY's move up will cause this oil move down. Its indicators agree, the next move is down. Only problem is Cramer says to take oil profits here. Mmmmmmmm? He might actually be right for a change. Equities will follow.
DXY looks extremely similar to previous impulse wave here. Fib retrace also. Has Oppo affect on stocks, meaning DXY up, Oil down, energy stocks down, commodities down, all stocks down. Dollar talk of weakening and losing reserve status is a given, but think we will let that go without a fight? Dont think so. Dollar rallies here in the currency wars, and...
see chart. so many indicators saying we move down from here. Note the ATH, and the vix then and now, same level. 3 times failed at 50% fib retrace friom ATH. HS maybe. Or perhaps: a New chart pattern I am calling, 3 rising peaks. also note the volume spike on last run up, capitualation spike in V. God bless all of you.
Hawkish this week in data and next "speaks" from the FED. Could even be a mini shocker re rates, (not to me but compared to what's baked into the markets now, markets are still believing .25 increase.). I fully expect a .5 increase in March, and fed speak to prep us for it (more pain) next few days. These impulse waves are real and to be respected. No October...
Oil to 70, complex HS to complete. Markets will follow. Markets are begging for something for the bulls to buy buy buy. But hope is fading. Oil demand down despite china open. Inflation strong, rates up more, and still not enough. FED's demand shock incoming., be careful what you ask for you might just get it.
HAL has a date with its 200 MA. and then, what does oil do. Selling SPR doesn't help supply much, when demand shock is about to hit hard.
Oil heading lower, 60 could be in the cards. Unusual spike in consumer spending on travel weakens, Summer driving demand slows. Bidens releasing more SPR doesn't help, prices heads lower, but doesn't encourage spending what ya don't got, and any excess cash goes toward food inflation which is unofficially skyrocketing, in case you haven't been to the grocery...
FCX topped the right shoulder of the HS, and its down from here folks.
see chart. DXY moves in similar historic patterns. I see this one as a repeat coming next week. February is also historically a dxy fav for a long move.