Trade ideas
H4 INTRA-DAY IDEAIntra-Day Buy Model Idea
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The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice.
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US100 HTF MARKET OUTLOOKMMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) is imminent if Price Action follows what I have denoted in this trade idea.
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
NASDAQ Faces Downside Risk Amid Tariff and Shutdown UncertaintyUSNAS100 – Technical Outlook Aligned with Fundamentals
The Nasdaq 100 fell sharply on Friday, losing nearly 1,200 points within six hours as it retreated from its all-time high.
The drop came amid renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions and growing uncertainty from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases and weighed on sentiment ahead of third-quarter earnings season.
Technically, the index is showing clear bearish pressure, and sellers will likely maintain control while the price remains below 23,930.
A short-term corrective rebound toward 24,160 – 24,350 is possible before renewed downside momentum.
If the price closes a 1H or 4H candle below 23,930, it would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, opening the way toward 23,700 → 23,500 → 23,350.
Conversely, as long as the index trades above 23,930, limited corrections may occur, but overall bias remains weak under current macro headwinds.
Pivot Line: 23,930
Support Levels: 23,700 / 23,500 / 23,350
Resistance Levels: 24,160 / 24,340 / 24,480
Summary:
Fundamental headwinds — from tariff threats to the shutdown’s data vacuum — are fueling pressure on tech stocks.
Technically, bias stays bearish below 23,930, with a potential correction toward 24,350 before continuation to the downside.
Us100 - Breakout Setup In PlayThe market has formed a rising channel after a significant bullish reversal marked by a Change of Character (CHoCH) and a Break of Structure (BOS). Price is currently consolidating near the midline of the ascending channel.
🔍 Key Insight:
We're in a wait-and-watch zone — a breakout from this channel in either direction could set the tone for the next move.
Trading Plan:
Upside Breakout: Watch for a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel with strong bullish momentum. Target the projected move equal to the height of the channel.
Downside Breakout: If price breaks below the lower channel support, expect a potential bearish move toward the lower target zone marked on the chart.
Important: Wait for a clear breakout and confirmation before entering a trade. Avoid entering inside the channel to minimize risk from false moves.
Nas100 - Pulls Back from Record Levels, Testing Critical SupportZone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Area
This zone aligns with the upper consolidation structure from which the last impulsive sell-off originated. Sellers have shown clear presence here, making it a strong supply pocket. As long as price remains below, it acts as a tactical short zone or at least a reaction point where momentum may fade. A sustained break and acceptance above would neutralize the selling pressure and open the door for a retest of the highs.
Asia Session High: Intraday Pivot
This intraday level marks short-term liquidity and offers a reference point for session-based structure. If price holds below it, short-term bias stays bearish toward the lower demand zone; reclaiming it intraday could trigger a squeeze back into Zone 1.
Zone 2: Key Demand / Buy-Side Liquidity Area
This zone has repeatedly acted as a strong buy-side absorption region. It represents the base of the prior impulse move, where aggressive buyers stepped in to defend structure. A clean hold here could produce a sharp rebound, while a decisive break below would confirm a shift in market control toward sellers and potentially start a deeper correction cycle.
Sentiment
The Nas100 remains near record highs, with sentiment best described as bullish but cautious. The market is still being driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, falling bond yields, and strong momentum in AI and large-cap tech stocks. Despite a weaker macro backdrop, investors continue to treat the tech sector as a structural growth play and a safe haven in an uncertain environment.
However, the tone is far from euphoric. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a “data blackout,” leaving traders without key economic releases such as CPI or employment figures. This has made the market more headline-driven and prone to volatility. At the same time, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and rising warnings about overvaluation are keeping risk awareness high.
Overall, sentiment on US100 remains positive, supported by liquidity and tech optimism, but the rally rests on fragile ground - driven more by policy expectations and momentum than by clear fundamental strength.
AI Bubble Burst in NasdaqChart is on logarithmic scale
Bet on price to correct back to the low of the shown logarithmic scale channel.
about 40-50% drop from an ATH at this price. (chance also that ATH can be established at the peak of the channel at 30,000$)
Bank of England and IMF started warning of an AI bubble crash similar to the dot-com bubble crash.
NAS 100: Price Surge Potential After Break and RetestHi everyone, Kilian here!
Let's take a closer look at the NAS 100 on a 3-hour timeframe, as it’s currently showing some interesting movements. The price has been steadily moving within an ascending channel, with the buyers continuing to dominate and push the price higher.
What’s particularly interesting right now is the breakout level. As the price approaches this level, we’ll be watching closely to see if the buyers can maintain control. A break and retest scenario could unfold here. If the price breaks through this level and then comes back to retest it (testing the broken level as support), and the buyers manage to hold it, this would be a strong confirmation that the buyers are still in control, and we could see price continuing to move towards the upper boundary of the channel.
However, if the price drops back below this level after the breakout, this could signal a false breakout, which may lead to a short-term correction as the sellers take control.
Currently, the momentum is still in favor of the buyers, and as long as the price holds above the breakout level, the bullish structure remains intact.
What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
And remember, discussions within the TradingView community are a great way for all of us to improve our trading skills and grow together.
NAS100 can continue higher inside the channelPrice has been moving steadily inside an ascending channel, with buyers maintaining control and pushing higher.
If buyers manage to defend this breakout zone on a retest, it would confirm their control and follow continuation toward the channel’s upper boundary. However, if sellers step in and force a drop back below, that could hint at a false breakout and short-term pullback.
For now, momentum favors the buyers, as long as price holds above the breakout area, the bullish structure remains intact.
US100 (NDQ): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trends, colored levels,
and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Trade on -NSDQ- USTEC100 ( INDEX)If Market Breaks on 4 Hours Chart- above - 25,169
Buy Entry"
Target Level- 25,295 💰
Target Level 2- 25,495 💰
If market goes up
will form
Ascending Triangle Pattern 📢📢📢
..........................................................................
If Market Break Below- 4 Hours Chart"
below- 25,003
Target Level - 24,817
This will form Double Top Pattern" 📢📢📢
........................................................................
HI Retail Trader.
This subject to Educational Purpose" ✅
Please Do your own Analyzation and Use Proper Risk - Money management
And Trade"
Smart Money Concept
Make sure Use Stop Loss " ❌❌❌
Please Follow me" Subscribe My Channel 🔥🔥🔥
NASDAQ (US100) Analysis:After yesterday’s drop to 24,990, which represents the golden Fibonacci retracement zone (as mentioned in the previous analysis), the NASDAQ index rebounded today, reaching 25,100, a nearby support zone expected to trigger a bullish continuation toward retesting the all-time high at 25,190.
If the index breaks above 25,190 and holds, it may target 25,280 as the next resistance level.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 25,100 and stabilizes beneath it, a decline toward the recent low at 24,990 becomes likely.