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US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)

US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)

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New Highs Before a Major Correction?The NASDAQ remains firmly within its main ascending trend channel, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries since mid-2023. After a sharp dip triggered by tariff-related headlines, the index quickly recovered, reaffirming bullish momentum and establishing a new support base along the lower trendline. We’re now approaching the 2nd Fibonacci extension level drawn from the previous major top to the last significant bottom — a key confluence area that historically signals potential exhaustion of the current leg up. Based on the current price trajectory, this zone could act as a probable top region, marked by the green resistance box on the chart. If the market reacts here, a technical correction or consolidation phase could unfold, retracing back toward the support zone around the mid-channel (highlighted in green). The “500 Days Rich Man Theory” line (July 2026) may coincide with a macro cycle inflection point, suggesting a timing window for trend reversal or cooling period before the next long-term advance resumes.
FPMARKETS:US100Long
by dan411vm
2
NAS100 Intraday Technical AnalysisNAS100 Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025 Nasdaq 100 at 25,454 (2:05 PM UTC+4) — multi-chart confluences signal breakout setup. 📌 Market Context: Wyckoff Phase D re-accumulation; Dow Theory primary uptrend intact; Gann Square-of-9 vibration levels 25,520/25,320. 🗺️ Multi-Timeframe Breakdown: 1D: Broadening wedge; RSI 63 (mild bearish divergence); Ichimoku cloud support 25,180; bullish engulfing pattern intact. 4H: Rising wedge 25,280-25,520; Elliott Wave (3) mid-extension; anchored VWAP from Oct 29 = 25,180 (buy anchor). 1H: Cup-and-handle breakout base at 25,360; BB expanding; VWAP reclaimed post-morning dip. 30M: Symmetrical triangle; hidden bull divergence (RSI higher lows); volume contracting pre-breakout. 15M: Bull flag over 25,340; Tenkan>Kijun bullish; stochastic RSI reset—ready for push. 5M: Falling wedge retest 25,420; hammer candlestick confirms demand; watch bull trap on volume weakness. 🎯 PRIMARY LONG SETUP Entry: 25,360-25,390 (VWAP + flag support) — wait for bullish 15M close above 25,380. Stop Loss: 25,300 (below symmetrical triangle base). Target 1: 25,480 (+26 pips). Target 2: 25,540 (+86 pips). Target 3: 25,620 (+166 pips — harmonic alt bat PRZ). Confirmation: RSI >55, volume >20% of 20-day avg, VWAP slope upward. ⚡ MOMENTUM ADD-ON: Scale above 25,520 ONLY if RSI>65 & volume surge confirmed; trail stop to 25,460 once first target prints. 🔻 REVERSAL SHORT SETUP Entry: 25,600-25,640 (supply zone) — trigger on bearish engulfing + RSI divergence. Stop Loss: 25,700 (above rising wedge). Targets: 25,500 → 25,420 → 25,320 (Gann support). Confirmation: 5M/15M RSI bearish divergence; BB upper band rejection. 🚨 BREAKOUT & BREAKDOWN ALERTS: BULL: 1H close >25,540 confirms Wave (3) extension; target 25,720; move stop to BE+20. BEAR: 1H close <25,300 with volume expansion opens 25,180 cloud base test; watch VWAP support. 📊 INDICATOR SNAPSHOT: BB squeeze (30M) expanding; MACD histogram positive; VWAP slope UP; EMA21>EMA50>EMA200 (bullish stack). ⚠️ PATTERN ALERTS: Harmonic bat completes 25,620; rising wedge failure <25,320 = Wyckoff UTAD signal; H&S only valid if neckline 25,260 breaks. 📈 TIMING & RISK: Gann 90° window 15:30 UTC; ATR(14)=90 pts; CPI whispers & Fed speakers elevate volatility. Risk ≤1% per setup; lock partials; avoid sub-average volume chases. Educational purposes only. Align with your plan, manage risk, adapt to real-time action.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
Nasdaq 100 Rebounds as Traders Anticipate End of the US ShutdownNasdaq 100 Rebounds as Traders Anticipate End of the US Shutdown As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index has started the week on a positive note amid growing expectations that the longest government shutdown in US history may soon come to an end. According to Reuters, a bill has been introduced in the Senate proposing amendments to extend government funding until 30 January. The news acted as a bullish catalyst for equity markets. Still, the question remains – is the risk truly behind us? Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Analysing the hourly chart of the Nasdaq 100 on 4 November, we: → Drew an ascending channel; → Noted signs of momentum exhaustion, as mentioned in our previous headline. Since then, price action has evolved as follows: → The lower boundary of the channel provided support (1), prompting a brief rebound; → The 25,770 level acted as resistance (2) on two occasions, strengthening the bears’ confidence to push for a downside breakout — which ultimately succeeded. The index’s subsequent movements have now more clearly outlined the formation of a descending channel (shown in red). From the demand-side perspective: → After a false bearish breakout below 24,680 (showing characteristics of a Liquidity Grab pattern), the market staged an aggressive rally from point B; → Today’s session opened with a bullish gap, and the price has moved above the red median line. From the supply-side perspective: → The 25,500 level, where sellers gained control during the previous channel breakout, may now act as resistance; → If the A→B move is viewed as an impulse, today’s rally appears to be a corrective rebound consistent with Fibonacci proportions — suggesting that downward momentum could resume within the red channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
US100 – Trading within a battle of supply and demandUS100 – 4H Technical Zone Analysis Overall, it remains challenging to define high-probability trading zones in the current environment. Price action is taking place near all-time highs, where volatility is elevated and historical reference points are limited. With sentiment shifting rapidly on macro headlines and thin data visibility, traders should treat each reaction zone with caution and focus on confirmation rather than anticipation. Zone 1: Former Demand Turned Resistance This area previously attracted strong buying interest, but sellers have since regained control, forcing price back below the level. The zone now acts as a clear resistance area where supply is likely to re-emerge. A confirmed rejection here would reinforce short-term bearish structure, while a clean break and hold above could signal that buyers are reclaiming dominance. Zone 2: Minor Reaction Zone / Potential Supply Area This zone represents a less-defined reaction area where a previous price gap formed, suggesting potential for renewed selling pressure if price revisits it. However, given the lack of strong historical structure, traders should approach this zone with caution and look for clear confirmation before positioning around it. Zone 3: Former Supply Turned Support This level previously acted as a ceiling where sellers pushed price lower before a decisive breakout occurred. Since that move, the area has flipped into a supportive base, marking the first meaningful demand zone beneath current price. As long as price holds above Zone 3, the broader structure remains constructive; a confirmed break below would indicate that buyers are losing control. Macro Overview The Nasdaq-100 continues to trade near record highs, supported by a mix of resilient economic data, easing inflation pressures, and improving global risk sentiment. The broader tone remains constructively bullish, though investors are increasingly aware that the rally is being sustained more by optimism than by hard data. Last week’s key drivers included renewed progress in U.S.–China trade talks and a strong set of tech earnings, which reinforced confidence in the growth and AI-led segments of the market. Softer-than-expected inflation readings added fuel to the rally by reviving expectations of potential Fed rate cuts in early 2026. However, policymakers have since pushed back on those assumptions, warning that rate reductions are not guaranteed and that the central bank will remain data-dependent. At the same time, the ongoing partial U.S. government shutdown continues to delay key macro releases such as employment and CPI reports, leaving both investors and policymakers with limited visibility. This data vacuum makes markets unusually sensitive to headlines and Fed commentary.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
NAS100 – Bullish Setup Alert (Inverse Head & Shoulders on 30min)#NAS100 has been moving sideways on the higher time frames, showing consolidation after recent volatility. However, on the 30-minute chart, it’s now forming a clean Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal signal. Key Levels to Watch: Neckline Breakout Zone: Watch for a breakout above the neckline for confirmation of bullish momentum. Entry Plan: Wait for a break and retest of the neckline before entering a long position. Targets: Short-term resistance zones and Fibonacci extensions can be used for profit booking. Risk Management: Always use a tight stop-loss below the right shoulder to protect capital. Technical Outlook: Once the neckline is broken with volume confirmation, it may trigger a strong bullish continuation move — aligning with broader market momentum. What’s your view on this setup? Do you see a breakout coming soon, or another fakeout before the move? Share your thoughts below #NAS100 #Trading #PriceAction #ChartAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #HeadAndShoulders #Forex #Indices #DayTrading
FX:NAS100Long
by mudusir
Nasdaq Battle between correction & innovationNASDAQ 100 (NDX) Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) currently sits at a crucial inflection point, defined by the overwhelming dominance of the technology sector's structural growth against a backdrop of increasing macroeconomic and technical vulnerability. After a historic rally driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) euphoria, the market is undergoing a necessary and sharp correction, testing key support levels established during the latest bullish surge. The Durable Foundation: AI, Earnings, and Profitability The core bullish case for the NDX remains robust, fundamentally driven by the "Magnificent Seven" and the pervasive, non-negotiable surge in AI infrastructure spending. Unlike the speculative rallies of previous cycles, today's leaders are characterized by deep profitability, substantial cash flow, and diverse revenue streams. Recent corporate earnings reaffirm this strength, with the technology sector posting strong double digit growth. This profitability suggests that investment in AI is being funded through internal cash flow, making the rally more sustainable than the debt fuelled expansion seen two decades ago. The long term trajectory is further supported by an accommodative Federal Reserve pivot, which is now in rate cutting mode a supportive contrast to the tightening cycle that ended the 2000 rally. The secular trend of technological innovation is accelerating, transforming AI from a growth narrative into an essential business imperative. Macroeconomic and Sentiment Headwinds Despite underlying corporate strength, recent market action signals a decisive sentiment shift rooted in macro uncertainty and high valuations. The index has experienced its steepest weekly decline since March, indicating heavy profit taking and a collective "reality check" among traders. Several factors are contributing to this sentiment reversal: 1. Concentration Risk: The sheer weight of the largest components now represents an extraordinary percentage of the overall market capitalization, making the NDX acutely sensitive to volatility in just a few key names. 2. Labor Market Cooling: Data showing a significant spike in job cuts (particularly in the tech and warehousing sectors) has unsettled investors, suggesting that economic cooling is accelerating faster than anticipated. 3. Consumer Confidence: A sharp drop in consumer sentiment reflects heightened anxiety related to economic uncertainty and political instability, which historically dampens forward looking market optimism. 4. Valuation Concerns: While not at 2000 extremes, valuations remain elevated, shifting the market’s focus entirely from multiple expansion to demanding flawless execution and continuous earnings growth. Technical Outlook: The Critical 25,000 Support Test From a technical perspective, the NDX has been in a clear, rising trend channel over the medium to long term, confirming a persistent buy the dip mentality. However, the recent sell off has introduced significant short term caution. The index is currently testing a non negotiable support zone around 25,000. This level is psychologically important and corresponds to a previous major breakout point. A decisive breakdown below this support could trigger a cascading sell off as automated stop loss orders are activated, potentially paving the way toward the next major supports at 24,500 and, more critically, 23,980. Key Technical Levels: • Immediate Support: 25,000 • Secondary Supports: 24,500, then 23,980 • Immediate Resistance: 25,200, followed by 25,500 and 25,700 Conclusion: Navigating the Volatility Nasdaq 100 remains an index of unparalleled innovation and long term potential, yet its short term path is fraught with risk. The outlook hinges on the NDX's ability to hold the critical 25,000 support level. A bounce from this zone would confirm the resilience of the dip buyers and maintain the medium term bullish structure. Failure to hold this level, however, would signal a deeper technical correction is underway, shifting the focus to the lower support zones as the market cleanses its excessive exuberance. Traders should remain nimble, respecting the clear shift in short term momentum while maintaining conviction in the long term, secular growth of the technology giants.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by SufiyanShabbirGangdani
US100 Free Signal! Buy! Hello,Traders! US100 Price has retraced back into a premium supply area after internal liquidity sweep. Smart money is likely to reprice lower, targeting inefficiency and equal lows beneath the recent range. --------------------- Stop Loss: 25,256$ Take Profit: 24,951$ Entry Level: 25,133$ Time Frame: 3H --------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by TopTradingSignals
3
US100: Ready To Start a Downward Move?US100: Ready To Start a Downward Move? A few days ago I posted an bullish forecast for US100. US100 couldn't manage to break above the triangle pattern, and the price turned bearish. Currently, we can see several bearish patterns one after the other. This sell-off started yesterday and may continue further in the coming days. It could be related to earnings reports, AI bubble fears, etc. However, all indices were also heavily overvalued. If the price respects this new bearish structure, we could see US100 falling to 24800 and 24350 first. I will keep you all updated. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by KlejdiCuni
9
A Hunter Waits Patiently, Then Strikes Like a Lion - US100 - 1HMy dear friends, greetings, My friends, I have set the buy levels for US100 at 24,872 and 24,677. I will never enter a trade or put myself at unnecessary risk before these levels are reached. My friends, in order to consistently win in this market and to become a successful trader, patience is essential. If you act with patience and strategy, you will always be a winning trader, just like me. I would also like you to know that my target is set at the 26,168 level. My friends, every single like from you is my greatest motivation to share these analyses. I sincerely thank everyone who supports me with their appreciation. With my respect and love.
FX:NAS100
by TraderTilki
37
Personal Account vs Prop firm TradingHere’s where a lot of traders miss the point. Prop firms sound good on paper — funded accounts, big leverage, short-term payout structure. That’s attractive to retail and newer traders. But let’s be honest — true SMC traders see deeper. A prop firm is a classroom. A personal account is freedom. ⚖️ Prop Firms: • Beginner-friendly, structured, and can help build discipline early. • But they come with strict rules — max drawdown, time limits, no weekend holds, no high-impact news trading. • These rules can kill genuine SMC plays, because Smart Money often holds setups that develop midweek and deliver through Friday. • Some prop firms even close trades automatically during volatile pullbacks — meaning your well-timed institutional entry could be cut off early. Prop firms test you on rule-following, not market mastery. 💼 Personal Accounts: • You control risk, timing, trade management, and exposure — full freedom. • You can hold trades through the weekend, manage partials your way, and let multi-day structures complete. • You can size positions sustainably — not recklessly, but with intent — and manage equity growth over time. • It demands mastery, discipline, and emotional control — but that’s the essence of becoming a true trader, not a funded participant. “Prop firms build discipline. Personal accounts build legacy.” 🧭 My Take: I respect prop firms — they have their place. But I’m a personal account believer. Why? Because Smart Money Concepts require freedom to express trade ideas dynamically, without artificial restrictions. A true SMC trader isn’t trying to pass a challenge — he’s trying to understand and move with the market. Prop firms serve the student. Personal accounts serve the master. ✍️ Closing Statement “The real education starts when you stop testing history and start studying live footprints. Prop firms can train your discipline, but personal mastery is built when your decisions shape your own equity. Trading is not about probabilities — it’s about reading precision, cause, and intent. That’s the Smart Money way.”
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by Juicemannn
NASDAQ 100-15m Bullish Setup/RiskyChartStructure Breakdown: Liquidity Sweep: The equal lows taken out near 25,050 indicate engineered liquidity collection. Displacement: Bullish impulse broke short-term structure, confirming buyers stepping in. Fair Value Gap (FVG): The shaded blue zone marks the imbalance target where price may rebalance before deciding next direction. Target Zone: 25,420–25,450 (FVG midpoint / supply area) Invalidation: A clean 15m close below 25,050 would invalidate bullish bias. Setup Type: Liquidity Sweep + Displacement + FVG Target Entry Idea: Buy within the discount range (gray zone) after bullish confirmation Take Profit: 25,420 Stop Loss: Below 25,050 Risk–Reward: ≈ 1:3 potential
IG:NASDAQLong
by RiskyChart
Is this OTE or the beginning of a bear market?Is this OTE or the beginning of a bear market? ICT OTE Theory defines the .62 retracement of a given range as the Optimum entry for the continuation of the bullish trend. Seeking Liquidity above the previous high. We can compare this to the supply and demand theory using SMA 10 20 50. The moving averages indicate. Price currently sits below the value area between the 10 and 20 and has reacted off the 50. Which put us in No mans land. the 10 & 20 being above the 50 indicate the a bullish Bias. If we are going bearish then we want to see the 10 & 20 below or crossing the 50 and price below the 50. This would be a strong setup and signal to go short. with price targets of 24224 & 22683. HTF analysis : The M,W,D charts are still extremely bullish. Current Sentiment: You tube videos and News reports are warning of a reversal and/or short term bearish move lower. My Conclusion: WE are Bullish until proven differently. Next week will either support my conclusion or prove otherwise. So Stay flat and/or hedge your current positions to protect yourself the market response.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Hindsight60
US Tech 100 (1H) Trade PlanUS Tech 100 (1H) Trade Plan Price has completed a clean sweep of sell-side liquidity and is now showing strong displacement toward the upside. The recent break in structure confirms short-term bullish intent. If price returns to the fair value gap or discount zone, I’ll look for confirmation to enter in alignment with the intraday bullish flow. My first target remains the internal liquidity zone, and the potential extended target is the previous day’s high where buy-side liquidity rests.
ICMARKETS:USTECLong
by Asif_Brain_Waves
nas100🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths. As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels. ⚠️ Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way. ✅ Recommendation for Use: To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Deltafx_Broker
NAS100 Rejection last 4H candle# 📊 NAS100 (SPOT NASDAQ100) Rejection TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯 ## Week of November 10-14, 2025 | Intraday & Swing Trade Setup Close Price: 25,121 | Entry Point: November 8, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 💹 --- ## 🔍 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MULTI-TIMEFRAME PERSPECTIVE The Nasdaq-100 index exhibits a compelling convergence of technical signals across all analyzed timeframes. Elliott Wave structure suggests we're navigating wave cycles with potential breakout scenarios emerging through harmonic pattern confirmations. Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating volatility consolidation before directional expansion. RSI readings across 5M-1H timeframes show overbought extremes transitioning to neutral zones, creating premium entry opportunities for disciplined traders. Volume analysis reveals institutional interest patterns correlating with Ichimoku Cloud positioning. --- ## 📈 TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS ### 5-MINUTE (Intraday Scalping) ⚡ Candle Pattern: Japanese candlesticks reveal micro-trend reversals with consecutive hammer formations suggesting buyer rejection zones. Evening Star patterns detected at resistance levels. Elliott Wave: Sub-wave completion suggests wave 4 consolidation before wave 5 impulse move. Wave structure favors breakout traders targeting 25,280-25,420 resistance confluence. Bollinger Bands: Middle band acts as dynamic support; lower band rejection patterns create high-probability short setups. Band squeeze indicating imminent volatility breakout. RSI (14): Oscillating between 35-65 range—avoiding extremes. Divergences between price highs and RSI highs signal potential reversals at 25,180 and 25,240 levels. Support & Resistance: Micro S/R zones at 25,095 | 25,140 | 25,180 | 25,220 | 25,280. Volume nodes clustered around 25,150. VWAP: Price oscillating around session VWAP—each touch generates scalp opportunity. Aggressive traders fade upper band extremes. ### 15-MINUTE (Quick Swing) 🎢 Candlestick Analysis: Three-candle patterns emerging—flag continuation structures with potential for 60-80 pip breakouts. Engulfing bars confirming directional bias shifts. Harmonic Patterns: Gartley Pattern formation detected—potential reversal zone (PRZ) at 25,165-25,195. Risk-reward ratio favorable at 1:2.5 for harmonic traders. Wyckoff Theory: Accumulation phase evident with volume concentration and price consolidation. Distribution signs emerging—caution at resistance clusters. Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze tightening—historical data shows 40-120 pip moves follow. Upper band resistance at 25,285; lower band support at 25,085. Volume Analysis: Volume profile reveals point of control (POC) at 25,140—high-probability rejection zone. Volume surge required for breakout confirmation above 25,250. Ichimoku Cloud: Price above cloud (bullish). Tenkan-sen at 25,205 acts as dynamic support. Kijun-sen (25,160) provides secondary support for pullback traders. ### 30-MINUTE (Intraday Swing) 🔄 Pattern Formation: Symmetrical Triangle formation with apex target at 25,290. Ascending triangle variant shows bullish bias—breakout above 25,270 targets 25,380-25,420 extension. Dow Theory: Confirming higher highs & higher lows structure. Secondary trend remains bullish; pullbacks to moving average (EMA 20) present optimal entry zones. RSI Divergence: Positive RSI divergence confirmed—price making lower lows while RSI forms higher lows at 42 level. Classic reversal setup targeting 25,260 minimum. Exponential Moving Average: EMA 9 above EMA 21—bullish alignment. Price hugging EMA 9 (25,125) indicates strong intraday uptrend. EMA 50 (25,080) provides stop-loss anchor. Support Zones: 25,080 (EMA 50) | 25,120 (EMA 9) | 25,160 (Kijun-sen) | 25,200 (Demand Zone) Resistance Zones: 25,250 (Breakout trigger) | 25,290 (Triangle apex) | 25,350 (Weekly resistance) ### 1-HOUR (Core Swing Trade) 🎯 Elliott Wave Complete Picture: Primary trend shows potential Wave 3 completion near 25,350. Wave 4 correction (current consolidation) targeting 25,140-25,180 support zone. Wave 5 breakout anticipated—target: 25,450-25,520. Pennant Pattern: Bullish Pennant formation within consolidation—breakout confirmation above 25,280 validates pattern. Minimum target: 25,450 (measured move from pole). Bollinger Bands (1H): Upper band at 25,380 represents squeeze breakout target. Middle band (25,200) = bullish support. Lower band rejection creates risk-reward optimization point. VWAP Daily: Price trading above VWAP—bullish gradient confirmed. Each hourly candle close above VWAP strengthens trend continuation probability. Rejection below VWAP = caution signal. Volume Profile: Heavily traded at 25,150-25,180 (support) and 25,240-25,280 (resistance). Imbalances favor upside—low volume zone above 25,300 suggesting vacuum to fill. Ichimoku Alignment: Price above Senkou Span A & B—cloud thickness indicates strong support. Chikou Span lag above candles = bullish confirmation. Cloud color shift (bullish green) reinforces uptrend. Gann Theory: 45-degree angle trendline from swing low confirms rally angle. Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci extension (25,280) precedes aggressive breakout phase. ### 4-HOUR (Swing Trade Foundation) 💼 Daily Chart Alignment: 4H timeframe shows potential Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern—right shoulder completing (current zone: 25,120-25,180). Breakout above 25,280 neckline targets 25,450-25,520 extension. Wyckoff Accumulation: Institutional buying evident—small barometer move (SBM) triggers accumulation phase. Spring tests below support anticipated 25,080-25,100 zone. RSI 4H: RSI at 54-60 range—neutral bullish. Still room for upside extension without extreme overbought. RSI above 70 targets 25,350+. Below 30 requires defensive posturing. Cup & Handle Pattern: Potential bullish Cup formation completing—handle stabilization near 25,150-25,200. Breakout above handle (25,280) targets cup depth extension = 25,420. EMA Ribbon: EMA 8, 13, 21, 50, 200 = bullish alignment. Compression and expansion cycles indicate momentum phases. Ribbon support at 25,120 = critical hold level. Support Tiers 4H: 25,050 (structural) | 25,120 (EMA 8) | 25,160 (EMA 21) | 25,200 (demand cluster) Resistance Tiers 4H: 25,280 (key breakout) | 25,350 (extension) | 25,420 (major target) | 25,500 (weekly projection) ### DAILY CHART (Swing Trade Thesis) 📅 Macro Elliott Wave: We're potentially in Wave 3 of a larger cycle—still room for aggressive expansion. Wave structure favors break of 25,350 targeting 25,500-25,650 daily close. Double Bottom Recognition: Historical pattern shows Double Bottom formation near 25,000 support—confirmed breakthrough above 25,250 neckline triggered. Second target near 25,450-25,500. Bollinger Bands Daily: Upper band at 25,480 = realistic daily target. Mean (25,200) = healthy pullback support. Band slope indicates volatility expansion—expect 250-400 pip daily ranges. Volume Signature: Daily volume profile shows strong buying volume bar at 25,050-25,100 zone (institutional accumulation marker). Selling volume decreasing—demand controlling. Ichimoku Daily: Cloud thickness growing—bullish trend strengthening. Cloud support around 25,150-25,200. Kumo Breakout anticipated—targets cloud top edge at 25,350-25,420. Harmonic Analysis: Butterfly Pattern potential completion—PRZ at 25,280-25,320 suggests reversal zone OR breakout confirmation. Confluence amplifies probability. Gann Angles & Fibonacci: 50% retracement (25,100) + 61.8% extension (25,420) = key reversal zones. Gann fan angles suggest 25,350-25,400 as structural resistance before continuation. Key Daily Support: 25,000 (psychological/structural) | 25,050 (accumulation) | 25,140 (weekly midpoint) | 25,200 (demand zone) Key Daily Resistance: 25,280 (breakout trigger) | 25,350 (extension) | 25,420 (measured move) | 25,500 (weekly target) --- ## 🎪 TRADING SETUP PLAYBOOK - NOV 10-14 ### BULLISH SCENARIO (Probability: 72%) ✅ Trigger: 4H candle close above 25,280 + volume surge + RSI above 55 Entry Zone: 25,200-25,250 (with breakout confirmation) Target 1: 25,350 | Target 2: 25,420 | Target 3: 25,500 Stop Loss: 25,120 (below EMA support) Risk/Reward: 1:2.8 (excellent entry) ### BEARISH SCENARIO (Probability: 28%) ⚠️ Trigger: Daily close below 25,200 + volume increase + RSI divergence Entry Zone: 25,280-25,300 (short setup) Target 1: 25,200 | Target 2: 25,140 | Target 3: 25,050 Stop Loss: 25,350 (above resistance) Risk/Reward: 1:2.1 (acceptable but lower probability) --- ## ⚠️ VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS Current Volatility Status: Moderate compression → Expect expansion soon 5M/15M: RSI in 40-65 range (neutral)—room for 25-40 pip moves 30M/1H: RSI near 55-60 (bullish bias, not extreme) 4H: RSI 54-62 range—still room to run without overbought Daily: RSI 58-68 (approaching caution zone)—be defensive if daily RSI>75 Overbought Recognition Points: Watch for RSI>75 combined with Band upper rejection + Ichimoku cloud top break fails. Take profits on technical extremes. Oversold Setups: RSI<30 on 1H + price below EMA 50 = high-probability bounce back to 25,200-25,250. --- ## 🎯 ENTRY & EXIT OPTIMIZATION ### OPTIMAL ENTRY TIMING For Bullish Scalpers (5M): RSI bounce from 40-45 zone after Band lower touch = 15-25 pip scalp target For Swing Traders (15M-30M): 15M candle close above 25,250 with 4H alignment = 60-120 pip swing target For Core Swings (1H-4H): 4H pennant breakout above 25,280 on volume = 150-300+ pip target (hold 24-48 hours) For Position Traders (Daily): Daily close above 25,350 = continuation play targeting 25,500-25,650 (hold 5-7 days) ### EXIT STRATEGIES Take Profit Levels: 1. Fibonacci 38.2% = 25,280 | 2. Harmonic PRZ = 25,320 | 3. Daily Band upper = 25,420 | 4. Weekly target = 25,500 Stop Loss Placement: Below most recent swing low + 10 pips (risk management priority) Trailing Stops: Activate at 25,350—trail with 40-50 pip buffer for 4H+ trades Breakeven Exit: Move stops to entry after 1:1 risk/reward achieved—reduce emotional trading --- ## 🔔 REVERSAL & BREAKOUT RECOGNITION CHECKLIST ### REVERSAL SIGNALS TO WATCH: RSI divergence (lower highs on price, higher lows on indicator) Candlestick engulfing patterns at resistance/support zones Volume breakdown (declining volume on breakout attempts) Ichimoku Cloud rejection (price fails to penetrate cloud layer) Harmonic pattern completion (Gartley/Butterfly PRZ exact hit) Elliott Wave 5th wave failure (truncation pattern) ### BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION RULES: Close beyond resistance on high volume (>20% volume increase) RSI confirms breakout direction (above 55 for bullish, below 45 for bearish) VWAP crosses align with directional move Bollinger Band breakout with band expansion (squeeze release) Multiple timeframe confluence (5M + 15M + 1H aligned) Ichimoku Cloud break (price clears all clouds smoothly) --- ## 💡 WEEK FORECAST SUMMARY - NOV 10-14 Monday (10th): Consolidation continuation—watch for range break direction. European open volatility catalyst expected. Tuesday-Wednesday: Breakout window opens—25,280 represents key decision point. Expect 150-250 pip daily moves. Thursday: Potential pullback/consolidation after breakout (profit-taking). Support retest of 25,250-25,200. Friday (14th): Weekly close pattern formation—extension run anticipated if above 25,350. Week target: 25,420-25,500. --- ## 📍 CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES 25,080-25,100: Major support (accumulation zone, Wyckoff spring testing area) 25,140-25,180: Secondary support (EMA 9, Ichimoku, volume POC) 25,200-25,250: Entry zone (demand cluster, Cup handle support) 25,280-25,320: KEY BREAKOUT ZONE (all timeframe resistance, harmonic confluence) 25,350-25,420: Primary upside target (Elliott Wave 5, daily Band, measured move extension) 25,500+: Weekly resistance/extension target --- ## 🏆 RISK MANAGEMENT SUMMARY ✅ Never risk >2% account per trade ✅ Use 1:2+ risk/reward minimum on all entries ✅ Scale profits at 1:1 and 1:2 levels ✅ Maintain tight stops (10-15 pips on 1H trades) ✅ Avoid breakout FOMO—wait for close confirmation ✅ Respect daily support zones—psychological holds matter --- ## #TRADINGSETUP #NAS100 #TECHNICALANALYSIS #NASDAQ100 #ELLIOTTWAVE #HARMONICPATTERN #BREAKOUTTRADING #SWINGTRADER #DAYTRADING #INTRADAY #FOREX #TRADING #ANALYSIS #TRADINGVIEW #BOLLINGER BANDS #RSI #ICHIMOKU #VWAP #TRADINGSTRATEGY #WYCKOFFMETHOD #GANNTHEORY #DOWTHEORY #TECHNICALS #SUPPORTANDRESISTANCE #VOLUMEANALYSIS #OVERBOUGHT #OVERSOLD --- Disclaimer: This analysis is educational only. Always conduct your own research and use appropriate risk management. Past performance ≠ future results. Trade at your own risk. Analysis Created: November 8, 2025 | Valid Through: November 14, 2025
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
Nasdaq Short: Peak Confirmed; Bear Market ConfirmedIt is now clear that the bull market ended on 30th Oct and that we have already seen the first completed wave down for Nasdaq that unfolded in clear 5-wave structure. The sub-waves also showed clear 5-wave structure themselves. We are currently in a wave 2 retracement that is facing the first real support-turned-resistance. However, take note that wave 2 can technically go all the way up to the start of wave 1 without invalidating the idea. So look out for reversal signal or confirmation before you short.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by yuchaosng
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