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DXY - will we see a bullish divergence?Hello, dear traders. We can observe an interesting situation on the Dollar Index. What we see: 1. An uptrend on the weekly timeframe. 2. The price is at the support level. 3. Over the 18 years of this trend, all impulses from the support level originated after MACD divergence. For divergence, we need at least two troughs, but now we are seeing only one. Therefore, I expect another decline in the Dollar Index with an update of the low on closed weekly candles. After that, for a reversal according to my author's FRL concept, it is necessary to form a multi-day reversal pattern. At the moment, the neck level is at 100.200, as this is where the last impulse of the last downtrend originated. If the price does indeed update the low and form a divergence, the neck level will be at 99.500. How do you rate this idea and what are your thoughts on it?
TVC:DXY
by borschenkovitc
1
DXY Weekly Outlook - Impact on XAU/USD & EUR/USD📊DXY Weekly Outlook - Impact on XAU/USD & EUR/USD On the weekly timeframe, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) after retesting a key support zone, identified as a weekly breaker block. This technical setup suggests a bullish outlook for the upcoming week. 📈 A strengthening dollar typically translates into a weaker Euro and potential downward pressure on Gold (XAU/USD) due to their negative correlation with the USD. In addition, there is engineered draw on liquidity to the upside, supported by an unfilled imbalance (weekly Fair Value Gap) , providing a strong indication that price may continue to seek higher levels in order to rebalance this inefficiency. Also, we have identified a Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergence on the weekly timeframe between DXY and EUR/USD, adding strong confluence to our outlook. Specifically, DXY has formed a lower low, while EUR/USD has created a higher high ,an indication of underlying dollar strength and bearish momentum building for EUR/USD. On the EUR/USD weekly chart, a liquidity grab followed by a Market Structure Shift further supports our bearish bias for the pair in the coming week. In summary: DXY: Bullish bias 🐂 EUR/USD: Bearish bias 🐻 XAU/USD: Bearish bias 🐻 Overall, based on current structure, SMT divergence, and prior technical analysis, I expect the U.S. Dollar to strengthen in the week ahead, with EUR/USD and Gold likely to experience downward movement.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by TheProfitRoomFx
DXY WEEKLY FRGNT FORECAST - Q4 | W44 Y25 |📅 Q4 | W44 Y25 | 📊 DXY WEEKLY FRGNT FORECAST 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by JCFRGNT
U.S. Dollar Index | Countertrend Break Aligning Toward ExpansionThe Market Flow | October 26, 2025 Technical Overview Monthly: • The bearish countertrend from the 108.50 pivot remains active but is slowing after completing a 138.2% Fibonacci projection. • Price structure is consolidating above the 95.99 breakout base, showing early signs of phase rotation. • A monthly close above 100.80 would confirm a higher timeframe structural shift. Weekly: • The down impulse reached the 138.2% target near 95.99 and turned higher into corrective structure. • The active weekly pivot at 98.54 defines current bias. • The correction phase persists toward the 38.2% retracement at 101.43 , with 106.64 as weekly expansion resistance. • Structure favors continuation within a developing countertrend recovery channel. Daily: • The daily trend remains bullish above 98.54 , with higher lows intact. • Price currently trades within the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (98.75–98.85) , overlapping with the H4 expansion base — a structural sweet spot of alignment between the daily and H4 expansion phases. • A sustained move above the green countertrend line confirms continuation toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 . • The active daily pivot at 98.12 defines primary invalidation for the short-term bullish structure. H4: • Consolidation within the 61.8% Fibonacci zone supports accumulation before potential expansion. • A confirmed H4 close above 99.25 (EXP) initiates the expansion phase toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 → 101.94 . • Failure to hold 98.12 (D Pivot) neutralizes the short-term phase alignment and reopens 97.70 . Trade Structure & Levels • Bias: Long above 97.70 • Trigger = H4 > 99.25 → clean H4 breakdown (EXP line) • Primary Invalidation = 98.12 (D Pivot) • Secondary Invalidation = 98.54 (W Pivot) • Path → 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 • Phase: Countertrend Break → Expansion Setup (Daily–H4 Confluence Zone) Risk & Event Context • U.S. macro data (PCE inflation, Treasury auctions, and Fed commentary) may drive volatility near key resistance zones. • Momentum confirmation above 99.25 aligns all active timeframes in expansion phase. Conclusion DXY sits within a confluence of daily and H4 61.8% target Fibonacci zone — a structural sweet spot supporting continuation of the expansion phase. A H4 break above 99.25 would validate alignment across both timeframes, targeting the 100–101.40 zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheMarketFlow
General Market OutlookHello, I want to talk about markets in general before the week start. The Federal Reserve is trying to navigate with limited data. Recently, after Governor Waller used ADP data without authorization, the Fed lost access to ADP’s high-frequency employment data as well. CPI and core CPI both came in at 3%, slightly below market expectations but in line with Cleveland Fed and Bloomberg models. With inflation not overheating, there is little reason for the Fed to delay rate cuts in its remaining two meetings this year, though these cuts are likely already priced in. The real focus will be on what FED will do in 2026. This week brings meetings from the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOC, while the Trump–Xi talks will take center stage. For me, the most important event will be the US–China negotiations. China holds a structural advantage: its exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, supported by rising trade with South America, Africa, the EU, and South Asia. Meanwhile, the US remains heavily dependent on China for rare earths, a situation unlikely to change soon. However, China’s top priority remains its economy, which should keep the door open for compromise and negotiations. Also, keep an eye on the shutdown situation and upcoming earnings reports. US bond yield is falling, now a battle around 4% is ongoing for 10-y yield. If it bounced from 3.85% trendline dollar might try to recover, but so far I don't see any reason for a dollar jump, rather the tight range between the trendline from 2011 and 100 resistance likely to continue. EURUSD is trying to recover with slighlty bullish trend but this trend could turn into flag formation easily if dollar index to make a move towards 100. I expect EURUSD to continue recover with strong data from EU and weaker data from US. If shutdown extends further, both stock market and dollar might turn bearish. There’s nothing new to add for USDJPY beyond the previous analysis. If the base case scenario unfolds, it will support the dollar index retesting its trendline in the coming weeks. Nasdaq is still trending high with insane amount of AI investments and better than expected earnings. High valuations, shutdown and China fears are not in the spotlight yet. As long as Nasdaq trend channel continues, no reason to back out bullishness, but careful if it break because corrections often came very hard. Crypto market is yet to recover after the massive sudden crash. Bitcoin is less effected, but still has a problem. If 114k regained, maybe signs of recovery will be more clear. But the danger is not over yet. My base case for gold to hold above 4000 and recover towards 4250. 4160 is a key resistance this week. I expect gold is getting to a long term peak, likely to hit before the year end but still has some way to go. I will write about Silver's long term cycle in a couple of days so stay tuned for that.
TVC:DXY
by orancapital
DXY: 3mo timeline channel, BULLISH Interest rates (relative to global peers) in the US remain relatively high. Global peers dropping rates at a much quicker pace when compared to the FED. US GDP growth continues at a fast pace thanks to expanding margins through efficiency thanks to AI. I believe we'll also begin to see small to mid caps perform as well as large caps currently are in the next year or so. Continued drop in commodity prices like oil From a technical perspective, on the 3mo timeline, the 50 sma is about to cross above the 200 sma. Current price is also bouncing off bothe the 50 and 200 sma. I believe the DXY is clearly bottoming in a multi decade long channel. As much tension as there is in the world today, we are still grinding forward. Nothing is perfect, but the sentiment shows clear promise in future growth which would help accelerate DXY value relative to the rest of the worlds currency. This doesn't mean stocks must come down. We can have both. ...But I'm an optimist. All the best.
TVC:DXYLong
by HassiOnTheMoon
DXY — Triple Compression: CPI Meets a 3rd Weekly & 4th Daily Ins The U.S. Dollar Index is locking in tight — 3rd consecutive weekly inside bar, and a 4th possible daily inside bar — as U.S. inflation holds firm and Japan’s core inflation uptick adds fuel. Context We’re locked in structural compression: three weeks of internal price action, and today presents a 4th daily inside bar formation. Weekly key range: low 97.561 and high 99.197. Price is stuck in the mid-zone, patiently waiting. For bias confirmation: Break of Tuesday’s 21 Oct daily candle low at 98.143 or high at 98.613 will signal directional bias. Macro queue: Big data hits next week (inflation prints, central-bank focus). Volatility is coiled. Technical Weekly frame: Still inside the bearish range (97.561 – 99.197). Daily frame: Bias leans bullish until the range breaks — think “bullish inside bar pending expansion”. In symmetrical measures: Risk of overbought cognition; if today’s low holds and Monday fails to trade through it, we may see a higher low setup. Execution: Wait for clean breakout of the inside bar structure; use volume confirmation; avoid getting sucked into a false squeeze. Fundamentals U.S. inflation: The Consumer Price Index for September is published today (24 Oct) after delay due to shutdown. Bureau of Labor Statistics +2 The Financial Express +2 Japan inflation: September core inflation rose to 2.9% YoY, moving above the Bank of Japan target and adding pressure to the JPY‐rate story. Trading Economics +2 Bloomberg +2 Impact mechanism: Sticky inflation → reduces odds of immediate rate cuts → supports USD strength; yet structural squeeze in DXY means the market is holding its breath for breakout. Plan & Mindset Plan: Hold off trading until Monday’s price action gives clarity through breakout of the inside-bar structure. Then map cross-assets (EURUSD, GBPUSD) accordingly. Mindset Structure rules story. Don’t fight a tight coil. Today you “wait with purpose.” If price breaks, act decisively; if it breaks wrong, adapt quickly. - Like waiting for the popcorn — you don’t eat the kernels while still heating.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
DXY and EURUSD Consolidate Near Key Breakout LevelsOn the 4-hour chart, both DXY and EURUSD are consolidating near key levels, with DXY leaning bullish and EURUSD leaning bearish. DXY Outlook A breakout above 99.15 could redirect gains toward 99.50, setting up another test before confirming a move higher toward 100.20 (July 2023-September 2024 resistance), then 101 and 103. On the downside, a hold below 98.80 could extend the consolidation between 98.60 and 98.40. EURUSD Outlook A breakout below 1.1600–1.1560 could extend the decline toward 1.1520, with deeper losses possible toward 1.1480 and 1.1380. From the upside, holding above 1.1620 may allow a rebound toward 1.1680 and 1.1730, before targeting yearly highs if momentum builds further. Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREX.com
US Dollar — Pre-London Market NoteSmart Money Distribution — The Dollar’s Quiet Exit 🧭 Context The U.S. Dollar Index is sitting in a premium range, absorbing liquidity near the highs. This isn’t random — it’s the textbook signature of smart money distribution. When professionals unload into late sellers and buyers end of week , the market looks stable… until it isn’t. We’re watching the same pattern unfold into week’s end — a slow bleed of premium selling to generate liquidity for next week’s open. 📊 Technical Frame Structure remains bearish on the weekly, bullish on the daily — a structural crossfire. Retail eyes see a bounce; institutions see exit liquidity. Dynamic structure math says: chasing longs here is paying premium for risk. The 4H range low at 98.0 is under pressure; a sweep toward 98.77 during London would complete the liquidity cycle. 🌐 Fundamental Pulse GDP and Core PCE ahead — both can shift yield expectations. Yields up → stronger dollar, liquidity drains from risk assets. Yields down → softer dollar, risk finds temporary relief. This tug-of-war defines positioning — not headlines, but how liquidity behaves around them. 🧠 Trader’s Mindset Smart money doesn’t predict — it prepares. This week’s goal isn’t to be early; it’s to read how the distribution completes. Patience preserves capital — and perspective. 💡 Takeaway When everyone sees strength, the pros are already selling into it. That’s smart money distribution in motion. Learn to spot it, and you’ll stop donating to those who already have.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W43 | D2| Y25 | 📅 Q4 | W43 | D2| Y25 | 📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by JCFRGNT
3
DXY long-term ideaThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is declining as investors anticipate a softer U.S. monetary policy and shifting global capital flows. Recent economic data—such as slower job growth, moderating inflation, and weaker consumer spending—has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates or at least pause further hikes. Lower rates reduce the dollar’s yield advantage, making it less attractive to global investors. At the same time, improving economic conditions abroad, particularly in Europe and emerging markets, are boosting demand for other currencies, putting additional downward pressure on the DXY. Furthermore, rising risk appetite in global markets often leads investors to move away from the dollar’s safe-haven status toward higher-yielding or riskier assets. In short, the DXY is falling because markets are pricing in a weaker Fed stance, softer U.S. data, and stronger foreign currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by limitless911