U.S. Dollar Index | Countertrend Break Aligning Toward ExpansionThe Market Flow | October 26, 2025
Technical Overview
Monthly:
• The bearish countertrend from the 108.50 pivot remains active but is slowing after completing a 138.2% Fibonacci projection.
• Price structure is consolidating above the 95.99 breakout base, showing early signs of phase rotation.
• A monthly close above 100.80 would confirm a higher timeframe structural shift.
Weekly:
• The down impulse reached the 138.2% target near 95.99 and turned higher into corrective structure.
• The active weekly pivot at 98.54 defines current bias.
• The correction phase persists toward the 38.2% retracement at 101.43 , with 106.64 as weekly expansion resistance.
• Structure favors continuation within a developing countertrend recovery channel.
Daily:
• The daily trend remains bullish above 98.54 , with higher lows intact.
• Price currently trades within the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (98.75–98.85) , overlapping with the H4 expansion base — a structural sweet spot of alignment between the daily and H4 expansion phases.
• A sustained move above the green countertrend line confirms continuation toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 .
• The active daily pivot at 98.12 defines primary invalidation for the short-term bullish structure.
H4:
• Consolidation within the 61.8% Fibonacci zone supports accumulation before potential expansion.
• A confirmed H4 close above 99.25 (EXP) initiates the expansion phase toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 → 101.94 .
• Failure to hold 98.12 (D Pivot) neutralizes the short-term phase alignment and reopens 97.70 .
Trade Structure & Levels
• Bias: Long above 97.70
• Trigger = H4 > 99.25 → clean H4 breakdown (EXP line)
• Primary Invalidation = 98.12 (D Pivot)
• Secondary Invalidation = 98.54 (W Pivot)
• Path → 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43
• Phase: Countertrend Break → Expansion Setup (Daily–H4 Confluence Zone)
Risk & Event Context
• U.S. macro data (PCE inflation, Treasury auctions, and Fed commentary) may drive volatility near key resistance zones.
• Momentum confirmation above 99.25 aligns all active timeframes in expansion phase.
Conclusion
DXY sits within a confluence of daily and H4 61.8% target Fibonacci zone — a structural sweet spot supporting continuation of the expansion phase. A H4 break above 99.25 would validate alignment across both timeframes, targeting the 100–101.40 zone.
