Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.71
1st Support: 96.64
1st Resistance: 99.98
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Trade ideas
DXY: Last Dip Before Lift-Off?Previous roadmap played out well — time to refresh the view.
Global (1W)
TVC:DXY remains in an uptrend. Since 2008 we’ve built a textbook five-wave impulse.
Since 2022/2023 that impulse has been in correction — base read: a single zigzag (SimpleZ).
Base case: correction completes → trend resumes with new highs ahead.
Alternatives
Flat: push toward 114–115, then a deep pullback.
Double zigzag (W–X–Y): bounce first, then one more leg down.
Local (12H)
Finishing ABC where C likely prints an ending diagonal → expecting the down leg to terminate and a rising phase to begin (either corrective or impulsive).
Price Action
Imbalances below may still get tapped; we’re below a key level, but the core scenario is dollar strength ahead.
What’s your take? Which path do you favor — Base (new highs), Flat (114–115 then pullback), or W–X–Y (one more leg lower)?
Dollar at Max Deviation — Watching 99.197 CloselyThe dollar had another wild week, closing around 99.197 — right on the edge of major structure.
Most traders see strength, but when you zoom out, this move looks stretched.
Yields have started to cool off, which takes pressure off the dollar’s safe-haven run.
We still got smaller data releases like PMIs and Fed talks, but the big stuff like CPI is on hold until the U.S. shutdown clears.
Even the IMF warned about growing liquidity risks in global FX — meaning sudden spikes or fake outs can happen fast when markets get thin.
Technically, we’re in a bearish zone on the higher timeframe.
The last three months of liquidity targets are already taken, and the market’s now trading inside maximum deviation — a point where algorithms usually reset before any new trend forms.
That’s why 99.197 matters: it’s the last shelf before structure confirms the drop.
If price breaks and holds below that level early next week, momentum likely shifts bearish.
If it holds above, expect more sideways chop before a correction.
For now, it’s all about patience and tracking structure — not emotions.
17.10.25 Morning ForecastJust a heads up! I will be in Italy the beginning of next week, so most likely will not be able to upload any video forecasts. I will do my best to post what I am looking at for the day to keep you guys in the loop. From Thursday next week I will be back to normal schedule 🫡
Pairs on Watch -
FX:USDJPY
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
US Index is getting stronger and ready to climb the 100.149 markAfter rebounding from the 97.45 support zone, DXY is regaining strength above the 200 EMA, showing short-term bullish momentum. However, the broader price structure bearish strength will take over.
The MACD is currently showing a bullish crossover from oversold levels, supporting the ongoing corrective move to the upside. Once the index approaches the resistance region, momentum could begin to fade, leading to a potential bearish reversal.
Resistance Zone: 99.80, 100.50 and ultimate 100.14
Immediate Resistance: 98.93 followed by 99.84
Support Levels: 97.46 and 96.87 trendline support
DXY — Triple Compression: CPI Meets a 3rd Weekly & 4th Daily Ins
The U.S. Dollar Index is locking in tight — 3rd consecutive weekly inside bar, and a 4th possible daily inside bar — as U.S. inflation holds firm and Japan’s core inflation uptick adds fuel.
Context
We’re locked in structural compression: three weeks of internal price action, and today presents a 4th daily inside bar formation.
Weekly key range: low 97.561 and high 99.197. Price is stuck in the mid-zone, patiently waiting.
For bias confirmation: Break of Tuesday’s 21 Oct daily candle low at 98.143 or high at 98.613 will signal directional bias.
Macro queue: Big data hits next week (inflation prints, central-bank focus). Volatility is coiled.
Technical
Weekly frame: Still inside the bearish range (97.561 – 99.197).
Daily frame: Bias leans bullish until the range breaks — think “bullish inside bar pending expansion”.
In symmetrical measures: Risk of overbought cognition; if today’s low holds and Monday fails to trade through it, we may see a higher low setup. Execution: Wait for clean breakout of the inside bar structure; use volume confirmation; avoid getting sucked into a false squeeze.
Fundamentals
U.S. inflation: The Consumer Price Index for September is published today (24 Oct) after delay due to shutdown.
Bureau of Labor Statistics +2
The Financial Express +2
Japan inflation: September core inflation rose to 2.9% YoY, moving above the Bank of Japan target and adding pressure to the JPY‐rate story.
Trading Economics
+2
Bloomberg
+2
Impact mechanism: Sticky inflation → reduces odds of immediate rate cuts → supports USD strength; yet structural squeeze in DXY means the market is holding its breath for breakout.
Plan & Mindset
Plan: Hold off trading until Monday’s price action gives clarity through breakout of the inside-bar structure. Then map cross-assets (EURUSD, GBPUSD) accordingly.
Mindset
Structure rules story. Don’t fight a tight coil. Today you “wait with purpose.” If price breaks, act decisively; if it breaks wrong, adapt quickly.
- Like waiting for the popcorn — you don’t eat the kernels while still heating.
DXY and EURUSD Consolidate Near Key Breakout LevelsOn the 4-hour chart, both DXY and EURUSD are consolidating near key levels, with DXY leaning bullish and EURUSD leaning bearish.
DXY Outlook
A breakout above 99.15 could redirect gains toward 99.50, setting up another test before confirming a move higher toward 100.20 (July 2023-September 2024 resistance), then 101 and 103.
On the downside, a hold below 98.80 could extend the consolidation between 98.60 and 98.40.
EURUSD Outlook
A breakout below 1.1600–1.1560 could extend the decline toward 1.1520, with deeper losses possible toward 1.1480 and 1.1380.
From the upside, holding above 1.1620 may allow a rebound toward 1.1680 and 1.1730, before targeting yearly highs if momentum builds further.
Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY SHORT FROM SUPPLY AREA|
✅DXY Price is retracing toward the supply level, where a reaction is likely once the imbalance gets filled. A rejection from this zone could confirm the retest before continuation lower toward the 98.30 target area. Time Frame 2H.
SHORT🔥
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DXY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY Price is expected to retest the horizontal supply area early next week as liquidity builds up below Friday’s close. Smart Money may engineer a short-term rally into this zone before resuming the bearish move toward 98.38.
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Stop Loss: 98.71
Take Profit: 98.38
Entry: 98.58
Time Frame: 3H
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Sell!
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Bearish drop off?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 98.91
1st Support: 98.43
1st Resistance: 99.43
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY: Sellers Take ControlHi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) formed a sideways range on the daily timeframe at the end of June. The seller’s initiative is now active, with a target at 96.767.
Before that, there was a buyer initiative, and we can see that at the end of it, there was a manipulation around the 98.640 level.
A buyer attack occurred on high volume, but the sellers absorbed the buyer’s attack candle and pushed the price downward on October 15.
The price may return to retest either 98.65 - 98.35 area. However, the main movement on the Dollar Index remains downward.
Wishing you profitable trades!
Dollar Index Behavior in a Descending DiamondThe dollar index has made a very polite effort and has been fluctuating within the range I have drawn, and I think this effort will continue and continue its downward trend until the price range I have indicated in the image!
Time will tell if this claim is true!
Good luck...
DXY Forming a Strong Base – Reversal Ahead?U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY – Daily Analysis
After a long downtrend, the Dollar Index seems to be forming a strong base at the bottom, as highlighted by multiple bounces from the same support zone. This area has been acting as a reliable floor, preventing further downside.
Currently, the price has also broken above the descending trendline, showing early signs of strength. If the price holds above this breakout, we could see a move toward the 100–101 zone, which is the next key resistance area.
However, if the price dips back below the trendline, a retest of the base zone near 97.00 could take place before any potential continuation higher.
Summary: DXY is showing a potential reversal structure. A sustained move above the trendline could confirm the start of a stronger bullish phase.
DYOR, NFA
Thanks for reading! Appreciate your support and engagement 🙏
4th Quarter Madness In a world where there's a government shut down, technology is changing at a rapid pace, finances are changing at a rapid pace, I see short term bullishness for DXY. This daily chart outlines the year 2025 in quarters and as we sit in the 4th quarter, I see a reason to believe we will be bullish targeting the consolidation high sitting at 100.250 then the high found in Q2 which sits at 102 institutional level.
DXY long-term ideaThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is declining as investors anticipate a softer U.S. monetary policy and shifting global capital flows. Recent economic data—such as slower job growth, moderating inflation, and weaker consumer spending—has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates or at least pause further hikes. Lower rates reduce the dollar’s yield advantage, making it less attractive to global investors.
At the same time, improving economic conditions abroad, particularly in Europe and emerging markets, are boosting demand for other currencies, putting additional downward pressure on the DXY. Furthermore, rising risk appetite in global markets often leads investors to move away from the dollar’s safe-haven status toward higher-yielding or riskier assets.
In short, the DXY is falling because markets are pricing in a weaker Fed stance, softer U.S. data, and stronger foreign currencies.
DXY - TRADING WEEK 20 - 24 OCTOBER 2025This week i expect the DXY to pullback to the 98.800/98.900 level of resistance and consequencially selloff to the 97.700 - 97.600 level of support closing the gap created two weeks ago, I don't exclude a lower test in the 97.000 area, this will be up to the strenght of the USD coming out from data at the start of the week.
The test of 97.700 - 97.600 could provide excellent trading setup and entries for GOLD, EUR USD, USD CHF and related USD pairs.
I expect the index to rally up and achieve the 99.600 and 100.200 level of resistance.
Please like/comment/share this idea - i will follow up through the week.
Wishing you all a great trading week!
DOLLAR INDEX- WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS We're looking at the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the weekly timeframe, and what’s happening here can be broken down step-by-step:
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🔍 1. Overall Structure
The chart shows a major downtrend that started after the last high around 110.176.
Since then, price has made a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish momentum.
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🧭 2. Current Price Action (Recent Weeks)
Current price: 98.816
Recent low: 96.218
You can see a base forming between 96.2 – 99.0, which looks like a potential accumulation zone.
Price has bounced off that 96.2 support, showing buyers are defending that level.
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📊 3. What It Means
The long red candles earlier show strong bearish control (USD weakening).
But now, the smaller green candles and wicks indicate loss of bearish momentum — sellers are no longer as aggressive.
This often hints that institutions might be building long positions for a potential correction or reversal.
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🧩 4. Key Technical Levels
Support Zone: 96.00 – 97.00 → where buyers stepped in.
Resistance Zone: 100.00 – 101.50 → the next test area for price.
If price breaks above 99.50–100.00 and holds, that confirms bullish continuation toward 101 – 103.
But if it rejects again near 99.50 and drops below 97.00, expect further bearish continuation toward 95.00 or even 93.50.
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💡 5. Institutional Insight
Given the prolonged drop:
Smart money could be accumulating USD longs around the 96 – 98 range.
They typically buy when retail traders still expect further decline — so this could be an early reversal phase.
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🧭 6. Summary
Direction Status Key Levels Signal
Long-Term Trend Bearish 110 → 96 Still dominant
Medium-Term Accumulation 96 – 99 Possible reversal forming
Short-Term Bullish Attempt 99 – 101 Needs breakout to confirm
🟦 Institutional Buy Zone (96.0 – 98.0)
This blue region represents institutional accumulation.
Large players (smart money) began building long positions here after a long decline.
The repeated rejection wicks around 96.2–97.5 indicate strong buying interest and liquidity absorption.
This zone acts as a major support area — any retest into it could trigger renewed bullish reactions.
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🟥 Institutional Sell Zone (100.0 – 101.5)
The red zone marks institutional distribution or short positioning.
Historically, price rallies into this area have been met with strong rejection, suggesting liquidity grabs before downside continuation.
This zone now serves as a major resistance level, where sellers may re-enter.
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⚖️ Interpretation
The current price (98.8) sits between these two zones — meaning DXY is at a decision point.
A break above 100.0–101.5 would confirm bullish strength, targeting 103–105.
But a rejection near 99–100 and fall below 97.0 would signal bearish continuation back toward 95.0–94.0.
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🔍 Trading Insight
As long as DXY holds above 96.0–97.0, expect possible accumulation or reversal structure.
Institutions tend to use this stage to trap retail sellers, then push the market higher toward the sell zone.
US Dollar — Pre-London Market NoteSmart Money Distribution — The Dollar’s Quiet Exit
🧭 Context
The U.S. Dollar Index is sitting in a premium range, absorbing liquidity near the highs.
This isn’t random — it’s the textbook signature of smart money distribution.
When professionals unload into late sellers and buyers end of week , the market looks stable… until it isn’t.
We’re watching the same pattern unfold into week’s end — a slow bleed of premium selling to generate liquidity for next week’s open.
📊 Technical Frame
Structure remains bearish on the weekly, bullish on the daily — a structural crossfire.
Retail eyes see a bounce; institutions see exit liquidity.
Dynamic structure math says: chasing longs here is paying premium for risk.
The 4H range low at 98.0 is under pressure; a sweep toward 98.77 during London would complete the liquidity cycle.
🌐 Fundamental Pulse
GDP and Core PCE ahead — both can shift yield expectations.
Yields up → stronger dollar, liquidity drains from risk assets.
Yields down → softer dollar, risk finds temporary relief.
This tug-of-war defines positioning — not headlines, but how liquidity behaves around them.
🧠 Trader’s Mindset
Smart money doesn’t predict — it prepares.
This week’s goal isn’t to be early; it’s to read how the distribution completes.
Patience preserves capital — and perspective.
💡 Takeaway
When everyone sees strength, the pros are already selling into it.
That’s smart money distribution in motion.
Learn to spot it, and you’ll stop donating to those who already have.






















