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Dollar Finds Support Ahead of U.S. Data and GDP; SNB Leaves RateDollar Finds Support Ahead of U.S. Data and GDP; SNB Leaves Rates Unchanged The U.S. dollar stayed strong this week as traders waited for important U.S. jobless claims and GDP numbers that could guide the Federal Reserve’s next decision. On Thursday morning, the Dollar Index traded near 97.55 after touching a two-week high on Wednesday. The move came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank faces a “challenging situation” as it tries to balance high inflation with a weak job market. Key U.S. Data in Focus Jobless claims due later today are expected to show around 230k, suggesting the labor market is still strong. GDP figures and PCE inflation data later this week will give more signals about economic strength. Several Fed officials are also speaking this week, which could move markets. Analysts say if jobless claims remain low, the dollar could get stronger because it means the Fed may delay more rate cuts. Europe and Switzerland In Europe, EUR/USD stayed flat near 1.1738. Analysts warn a fall below 1.1725 could push the pair down toward 1.1660. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its interest rate at zero, stopping a series of seven straight cuts. After the news, USD/CHF edged up to 0.7958. Asia Updates USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 148.69 after strong gains the previous day. BoJ minutes showed some members want to consider raising rates in the future. AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.6592 after Australian inflation came in higher than expected. Outlook The dollar remains supported as traders balance U.S. economic strength with Fed policy expectations. For now, the focus is on today’s jobless claims and GDP data, which could set the next move for the dollar. ✍️ By Md Golam Rabbani
TVC:DXYLong
by FXNEWSCLUB
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)- Daily Timeframe Analysis 🔎 Market Structure The Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a bearish market structure, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. Price action is currently reacting within important Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which often act as magnet zones for liquidity and corrective moves before resuming the primary trend. --- 🟪 Higher-Timeframe Fair Value Gaps April FVG (Purple Box): Price previously filled part of this imbalance but failed to sustain a bullish continuation. This reinforced bearish order flow. September FVG (Blue Box): Price recently tapped into this imbalance, where sellers may look to re-enter the market. --- 📉 Bearish Reaction Zones 99.000 – 100.000 (Red Box): A critical supply zone aligning with the upper boundary of the blue fair value gap. If price retests this region, strong rejection is likely. Current price around 97.96 suggests the market is already reacting to this supply/FVG area. --- 🔮 Directional Bias The broader expectation is for the DXY to form a new lower high before resuming bearish momentum. Two possible scenarios are highlighted: 1. Rejection directly from the current FVG zone (97.9 – 99.0) → continuation lower. 2. Slight extension into the upper supply zone (99.5 – 100.0) → liquidity grab → sharp bearish reversal. Both paths suggest a downside move targeting 96.20 and potentially lower levels. --- 📌 Summary for Traders Bias: Bearish Key Resistance: 99.0 – 100.0 (FVG + Supply Zone) Key Support: 96.20 (short-term target) Expectation: Formation of a lower high, followed by renewed selling pressure. ⚠️ Note: Always confirm with confluence (macroeconomic data, USD pairs’ correlation, and risk management rules) before entering trades.
TVC:DXYShort
by enwemadufranklyn1989
US Dollar Flexes, Look For on 99.05Sunday War Map – A weekly candle this strong leaves a mark. The dollar printed a 96.77 low to 98.18 high—a full-bodied bullish bar that demands respect. Macro This week is stacked with U.S. data that can shake the pullback narrative: Tue 30 Sep – JOLTS & Consumer Confidence: first look at hiring demand and household mood. Wed 1 Oct – ISM Manufacturing PMI: factory pulse and price pressures. Thu 2 Oct – Durable Goods & Trade Data: capital-expenditure clues. Fri 3 Oct – Non-Farm Payrolls & Hourly Earnings: the heavyweight. A hot jobs print could delay the December Fed-cut story (futures still price ~70% odds). Technical Targets Expect an early-week pullback as traders digest that massive weekly bar. Two liquidity pools we’ve tracked for months were cleared last week; two upside targets still in play 98.2 and 98.3 remain before the chart reaches a true “bearish-range discount.” Keep eyes on the 99.05 volume node—a well-defined supply zone where cross-market reactions (EUR, gold, crypto) could spike. The dollar controls the tempo. Wait for the market to come to your levels; don’t chase the last candle.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
DXY | Bullish Reversal from IFVG – Targeting 99.50 Supply ZoneHello Billionaires!! In DXY D1 Projection we know The US Dollar Index has tapped into the Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (IFVG) and shown signs of bullish reaction after sweeping Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). This aligns with a potential reversal model aiming towards higher liquidity levels. 🔹 Key Points: SSL swept, confirming liquidity grab. Price reacting from IFVG as demand zone. Short-term retracement expected, followed by continuation. Targeting the BPR supply zone around 99.50 and eventually Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above 100.00. As long as DXY holds above the IFVG zone, bullish continuation remains the primary outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by AliyanFX
Bearish drop off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 97.85 1st Support: 96.61 1st Resistance: 98.70 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
Dollar - Daily Range I Liqudity I Key Level - ShortDollar has reached key level after whipsaw move on FOMC. It also grabbed liqudity and COT is still bearish while HTF Key Level on lower prices. Hence I think new low is in play. Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it. “Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.” David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter 💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by David_Perk
33
USD Rate Cut Rally - X Marks the SpotThe Fed cut rates while warning of another 50 bps of softening for this year and another 25 for next year. Yet the USD has rallied since just after the release of the rate cut announcement with strength holding into the end of the week. This is quite similar to last year's rate cut cycle starting from the FOMC. At that meeting, the USD initially pushed down to a fresh low - and that's when sellers started to stall. It took another week and a half or so but soon bulls took over with aggression and ran a strong rally through Q4 trade. This also led to higher US yields, with both the 10 and 30-year setting a low yield watermark just a day ahead of the rate cut. But, as the cut and continued to cut in Q4, US yields just went higher and higher, with the 10-year eventually tagging 4.8% in the first few weeks of 2025 (after a pre-cut low of 3.6%) and the 30-year hitting 5% (after a pre-cut low of 3.9%). This may seem counter-intuitive, as the Fed softening rates led to higher long-term rates, but if the Fed is cutting rates with inflation already high, this is something that can happen. Long-term inflation expectations moving higher makes the prospect of sitting long in long bonds as a less attractive prospect. And there's also the opportunity cost element, why settle for a 3.9% year-over-year return if inflation is expected at 3% or maybe even more; meanwhile stock prices are rallying on the back of a softer Fed even with a backdrop of high inflation. While last year's rate cut marked a significant low for DXY, there's potential for a repeat occurrence. We're still in the early stages of the move and the Fed sounded just a little less dovish than what markets were hoping for, by reining in expectations for 50-75 bps in cuts next year. But given just how stretched USD bears have been, any further motive towards fewer FOMC cuts could lead to a stronger USD. For next week, the big focus is on EUR/USD supports which remain in-play, and those keep bulls in the conversation until they're traded through. And with the Euro as 57.6% of the DXY quote, that's an extremely important factor for USD trends as we near the Q4 open. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
1
US Dollar: Hold Off On Selling The USD! Higher Prices Ahead?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 22 - 26th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar The USD recovered last Friday after the FED cut the rate .25 basis points. The USD was also supported by higher T-note yields. What's next? Although price swept the Swing Low last week, it recovered, trading back up into the consolidation. There is a bullish tone to this movement, and a manipulative one as well. The sell side LQ was taken, followed by a quick recovery. The highlighted bullish FVG indicates bullish order flow. There is a potential iFVG just above the +FVG. Monitor it to see if price will respect it as support. Should it hold, look to long the USD. Wait and react. Do not predict. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
2
DXY – Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders FormationTVC:DXY The DXY is currently consolidating in a way that suggests the development of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. We have support distributed between $96.37 and $96.21 , creating a potential base for this pattern. On the upside, the recent breakout through $97.45 highlights bullish intent, with the next critical level being the daily fractal resistance at $97.82 , which acts as the neckline . Breakout Implications A confirmed break and close above $97.82 would validate the pattern and shift momentum toward higher targets. If this scenario plays out, extension levels become the next logical zones of interest: 127% Fibonacci extension: $98.60 - bearish butterfly pattern 161.8% Fibonacci extension: $99.26 - bearish crab pattern 200% Fibonacci extension: $99.38 - H&S default target Risk Factors & Harmonic Patterns While the bullish case is clear above $97.82 , caution is warranted. Harmonic patterns may begin to take shape around $98.60 and $99.26 , which often serve as areas of exhaustion or reversal. These zones could lead to temporary pullbacks, and in a broader context, may even reassert the prevailing downtrend seen in recent months. Key Takeaway The confirmation or rejection of the $97.82 neckline will be pivotal in defining the next directional phase for the DXY. We should monitor price behavior carefully at each Fibonacci extension, balancing the potential for continuation against the risk of harmonic-driven reversals. Safe Trades, André Cardoso
TVC:DXY
by Andre_Cardoso
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar index has beautifully retraced 100% of a bearish Butterfly pattern that was identified between July 1st and August 13th 2025, hitting the monthly support target of 95.911. There has been a strong bounce from this support zone into the weekly closing range. What we currently have now is also a bullish Butterfly pattern on the daily chart and the bounce from the support zone has retraced to exactly the 0.382 fib level (97.336). The weekly hammer candle suggests that bulls will attempt to reach the 0.5 fib level, however lower time frames shows that the bulls are losing their strength. As such, I am not expecting DXY to continue grinding up next week without a major pullback to retest the weekly candle wicks. Basically expecting a lot of volatility in both directions. I thank you for checking out my publication and I wish you a successful trading week. Cheers!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR