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US Dollar Index: Was Friday the Start of a Pullback Or Reversal?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 4 - 8th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Index The DXY had a strong week, but turned bearish Friday on weak jobs numbers. Was this just a retracement from the impulsive move up? Will price now find support for another bullish leg? It all comes down to the +FVG, whether it holds or folds. Look for price to continue down to discount prices early in the week... and then find it's footing on support. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
3
DXYThe DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major world currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). It is a weighted index, with the euro having the largest share, making movements in EUR/USD especially influential on the index. The DXY was created in 1973 by the US Federal Reserve to provide a clear benchmark for the dollar’s international strength after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Since its inception, the DXY has served as a vital gauge of the dollar’s performance in global trade and financial markets. Historically, it reached its all-time high near 164.72 in 1985, during a period of aggressive US interest rate hikes and a strong economic expansion. Conversely, it hit its all-time low around 70.70 in 2008, at the peak of the global financial crisis, when confidence in the US economy sharply declined. The index typically rises when investors seek safety in the US dollar, especially during global risk-off events or when US interest rates are relatively high. It also tends to strengthen during periods of US economic growth, reduced liquidity, or tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the DXY weakens when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, inflation rises, or investor sentiment shifts toward riskier assets and other global currencies. In the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, the DXY saw sharp movements. It rallied strongly in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, reaching levels above 114. This was followed by a pullback as inflation cooled and expectations of rate cuts emerged in 2023 and 2024. As of August 2025, the DXY stands at approximately 93.4, reflecting a weaker dollar compared to its recent highs, influenced by a more dovish Federal Reserve, growing US debt concerns, and rising investor interest in alternative assets such as gold and other currencies. The DXY remains a key tool for traders, economists, and policymakers to assess the dollar’s position in the global economy. Its movements affect everything from commodity prices and trade balances to emerging market capital flows and inflation pressures worldwide.
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by HavalMamar
Dollar Index in Danger: Patterns Point to More DownsideThe dollar index (DXY) is flashing serious warning signs. In this video, I break down the technical evidence behind my bearish outlook on both the monthly and daily charts. The head and shoulders pattern we spotted did work it's way to breaking the neckline BUT the target will Not be achieved as the data on the charts have changed. On the daily charts we have a strong bearish engulfing candle, there is also an RSI divergence in the overbought zone, stochastic indicator has turn down and momentum is also following along. The downtrend on the monthly timeframe has not formed any divergence yet so I expect price to fall below the previous month's low in the coming weeks. There will be bounces from support zones on the daily and 4 hours, these will be opportunities for good entries. If you’re holding USD or trading around it, this is a must-watch. The signals are clear—are you prepared? Cheers and I wish everyone a profitable trade in the coming week.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR
Dollar Falls as Traders Price In Two 2025 Rate Cuts on Weak JobsDollar Falls as Traders Price In Two 2025 Rate Cuts on Weak Jobs Data Introduction In a significant turn of events for the global currency markets, the U.S. dollar has taken a sharp tumble as traders brace for a more dovish Federal Reserve. A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report for July 2025 has prompted market participants to price in two interest-rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year. This shift in monetary policy expectations comes during a time of heightened global uncertainty, much of it triggered by President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, which have already disrupted the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a key gauge of the dollar’s strength against major currencies, plunged as much as 1%—marking its worst single-day performance since April 21, 2025. The greenback’s decline was mirrored by strong gains in rival currencies, with the Japanese yen appreciating 2.2% and the euro climbing more than 1% against the dollar. This article delves into the recent developments surrounding the U.S. dollar, the implications of weak jobs data, the Federal Reserve’s likely response, and how Trump’s trade policies are shaping the broader economic landscape. ________________________________________ Weak Jobs Data Sparks Policy Shift The July 2025 employment report came in well below expectations. Non-farm payrolls growth fell short, and revisions for May and June showed fewer jobs were added than previously reported. These figures suggest that the U.S. labor market is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, raising concerns about the sustainability of the post-pandemic economic recovery. According to Helen Given, a foreign exchange trader at Monex Inc., “It’s now clear that the U.S. labor market is cooling fairly sharply. There’s a good chance that Trump’s crusade against Chair Powell ratchets up further in the coming days, and there could be further losses for the dollar to come as a result.” The disappointing employment data has led traders to adjust their expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Futures markets are now pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, a stark reversal from the earlier outlook that suggested the Fed would remain on hold or even consider tightening if inflation remained sticky. ________________________________________ The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma The Federal Reserve now finds itself in a precarious position. On one hand, inflation has moderated in recent months, giving the central bank more room to maneuver. On the other hand, a weakening labor market could indicate a broader slowdown that might require immediate action to prevent a recession. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has come under increasing political pressure from President Trump, who has publicly criticized the Fed for keeping rates too high. Trump argues that rate cuts are necessary to support U.S. exporters and counteract the negative effects of his own tariffs and trade restrictions. Historically, the Fed has maintained its independence from political influence, but in an election year, the pressure to act can become intense. If the Fed moves to cut rates, it will be seen as responding to both economic data and political dynamics—a delicate balancing act. ________________________________________ The Global Currency Market Reacts The ripple effects of the dollar’s decline are being felt across the globe. The $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, already under strain from geopolitical uncertainty and shifting central bank policies, has seen increased volatility in recent weeks. The Japanese yen, often viewed as a safe-haven currency, surged 2.2% against the dollar following the release of the jobs data. Meanwhile, the euro gained over 1%, reflecting investor sentiment that the greenback’s era of dominance may be waning—at least for now. Emerging market currencies also found some relief, as a weaker dollar generally eases pressure on countries with large dollar-denominated debts. However, the overall picture remains complex, as trade tensions and capital flow volatility continue to weigh on risk sentiment. ________________________________________ Trump’s Trade Policies: A Double-Edged Sword President Trump’s trade strategies have been a central feature of his second term in office. From imposing tariffs on Chinese imports to renegotiating trade agreements with the European Union and Canada, Trump has sought to reshape the global trading system in favor of American manufacturers. Yet these policies have produced mixed results. While some sectors have benefited from protectionist measures, others—particularly those reliant on global supply chains—have suffered from rising costs and retaliatory tariffs. The uncertainty generated by these policies has also dampened business investment, slowed global trade, and disrupted financial markets. “The dollar had tumbled this year as Trump’s aggressive trade policies rocked the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency market, weighing on global growth outlook,” Bloomberg reported. Investors are increasingly concerned that continued trade friction, combined with growing political pressure on the Fed, could lead to policy missteps that undermine the U.S. economy and erode confidence in the dollar. ________________________________________ Market Implications The dollar’s recent decline has far-reaching implications for various asset classes: 1. Equities U.S. equities have shown mixed reactions. While lower interest rates are typically supportive of stock prices, the underlying reason—economic weakness—has investors on edge. Sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are expected to benefit from cheaper borrowing costs, but cyclical sectors may struggle if growth slows further. 2. Bonds Treasury yields have fallen sharply as traders anticipate rate cuts. The 10-year yield dropped below 3.8%, its lowest level in months. The yield curve has also flattened, a potential warning sign of slowing economic momentum. 3. Commodities A weaker dollar typically supports commodity prices, as most are priced in dollars. Gold, oil, and industrial metals all saw gains in the wake of the jobs report. However, demand-side concerns stemming from a global slowdown could limit the upside. 4. Emerging Markets For emerging markets, a softer dollar offers both relief and risk. On the positive side, it reduces debt servicing costs and can attract capital flows. On the negative side, if the dollar’s weakness reflects a broader global slowdown, risk appetite could remain subdued. ________________________________________ Looking Ahead: What to Watch As markets digest the latest economic data and policy signals, several key developments will be closely monitored: 1. Upcoming Fed Meetings The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet again in September. Markets will be keenly watching for any changes in tone or new forward guidance. A rate cut in September now appears increasingly likely, especially if subsequent data confirms a labor market slowdown. 2. Inflation Trends While inflation has moderated, it remains a key concern for policymakers. If inflation rebounds unexpectedly, it could complicate the Fed’s ability to cut rates without stoking price pressures. 3. Geopolitical Risks Trade tensions, particularly with China and the EU, remain unresolved. Any escalation could further destabilize markets and weigh on the dollar. Additionally, developments in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia could add to the uncertainty. 4. U.S. Presidential Politics With the 2026 presidential election campaign already underway, Trump’s rhetoric and policy decisions will continue to influence market sentiment. His ongoing criticism of the Fed could erode confidence in U.S. institutions, particularly if it leads to perceived politicization of monetary policy. ________________________________________ Conclusion The sharp fall in the U.S. dollar following weak July jobs data marks a pivotal moment in 2025’s economic narrative. With traders now pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers, investors, and political leaders. While a softer dollar can provide some temporary relief to exporters and boost inflation expectations, it also reflects deeper concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and the unintended consequences of aggressive trade policies. President Trump’s confrontational approach to global trade, combined with mounting pressure on the Fed, is creating a complex and potentially volatile environment for markets. As the year progresses, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s response, the resilience of the U.S. labor market, and the evolving political landscape. In a world where headlines can move markets in seconds, clarity, stability, and sound policy have never been more critical. ________________________________________ Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
What now for the dollar after a poor NFP report?It is difficult not to link the bad US data to the impact of tariffs. Indeed, it certainly looks that way, especially given that the slowdown in jobs started in early Q2 when reciprocal tariffs were announced. Companies expecting margins to be squeezed by higher duties probably thought twice about hiring workers in order to keep costs down. So, the US labour market has been losing steam fast, undoubtedly due to tariff concerns. Unless the data surprises on the upside soon, the Fed may have no choice but to cut—and cut again. Against this backdrop, the recovery in the dollar is going to a long bumpy road. We noted the area around 100.00 to be resistance in the previous update, and that level has held, thanks to the weak jobs report (and ISM survey that was released later). The DXY was testing potential support around 98.95 at the time of writing. Will it be able to bounce there? Break that on a closing basis and next week could bring more technical dollar selling. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
TVC:DXY
by FOREX.com
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis:The DXY has recently exited a bearish wave, retested support levels, and began a recovery — currently trading near 100.09, a key resistance area. 🔹 If price breaks and holds above 100.09, the upward move may continue toward the 102.00 zone. 🔹 However, if the index rejects this level and reverses, a retest of 98.80 could follow. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and monitor the markets before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXY
by Fadi_radar
DOLLAR INDEXDepartments Responsible for Each Economic Report Indicator Responsible Department/Source Average Hourly Earnings m/m U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the Department of Labor Non-Farm Employment Change BLS (Establishment Survey) Unemployment Rate BLS (Household Survey) Final Manufacturing PMI S&P Global/Markit (private company) ISM Manufacturing PMI Institute for Supply Management (ISM, private sector) ISM Manufacturing Prices Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan (private/public university) Construction Spending m/m U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce Revised UoM Inflation Expectations University of Michigan How the Federal Reserve Interprets “Greater Than” or “Lower Than” Forecast 1. Average Hourly Earnings, 2.Non-Farm Payrolls, 3. Unemployment Rate Higher than forecast (stronger labor market): Tight labor markets (higher wages, more jobs, lower unemployment) suggest inflationary pressure. The Fed may view this as a signal to keep rates higher for longer, as wage and job growth could fuel inflation. Lower than forecast (weaker labor market): Signals cooling in employment and wage growth, reducing upward pressure on inflation. The Fed may see this as justification to consider easing policy or at least pausing further rate hikes. 2. Manufacturing PMIs (ISM, S&P) Above 50: Signals expansion in manufacturing; below 50 indicates contraction. Higher than forecast: Points to stronger economic momentum; the Fed may see upside risks to inflation. Lower than forecast: Indicates weaker manufacturing activity; a possible sign of slowing demand, which could support rate cuts or dovish policy if persistent. 3. ISM Manufacturing Prices Higher than forecast: Suggests inflationary pressures in manufacturing input costs; Fed interprets this as a reason for vigilance on inflation. Lower than forecast: Implies easing input price pressures, supporting a dovish outlook if inflation remains subdued. 4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations Stronger than forecast sentiment: Consumers are more optimistic, often a sign of solid spending potential. May amplify inflation if this leads to greater demand. Higher inflation expectations: If consumers expect higher future inflation, this can become self-fulfilling and the Fed may maintain tighter policy. Weaker sentiment/lower inflation expectations: Reduces inflation risk, gives the Fed more flexibility to ease if needed. 5. Construction Spending Higher than forecast: Indicates resilient investment and demand in the real economy. Lower than forecast: Suggests cooling real estate and infrastructure spending; may support a dovish Fed outlook if sustained. Summary Table Data Surprises Interpretation for Fed Policy Higher-than-forecast More hawkish; raises risk of persistent inflation Lower-than-forecast More dovish; reduces pressure to hold rates higher The Fed looks at the overall pattern across these data. Persistent upside surprises heighten concerns about inflation, supporting tighter policy. Downside surprises suggest cooling economic momentum and may encourage future rate cuts or pauses. The relative impact depends on which indicators surprise and the broader economic context. #DXY #DOLLAR
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
NFP Volatility Ahead – Is the Dollar Ready to Break Higher?🟢 DXY Outlook – A Key Day for the Dollar Index Yesterday’s monthly candle closed with strong bullish momentum, marking a powerful start to August. Today, on the first trading day of the month, we’re expecting three major U.S. economic releases: NFP, Average Hourly Earnings (m/m), and the Unemployment Rate. As discussed in last week’s outlook, DXY has successfully broken above the key 100 level and confirmed a monthly close above it — a significant technical development. With no major order blocks or visible resistance in the way, the path toward the 102 target appears technically clear. That said, I anticipate mixed data from today’s releases — which means we could see both sides of liquidity being taken during the initial reaction. Price might dip toward lower zones temporarily to collect liquidity before resuming its bullish move toward 102. 📌 In summary: From a swing perspective, I believe the direction remains bullish for the Dollar Index as long as we hold above the 100 level. When I say the data might be “mixed,” I mean the market could show an initial drop toward lower zones at the time of release — not because of a reversal, but to grab liquidity before continuing higher toward the 102 target. Unless we see something unexpectedly extreme in the numbers, I expect the DXY to remain on track to reach the 102 level in the coming days or next week. 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mehrasfx
4