Upswingy VIX in patterns is bad for Small cap returns.Where VIX gets 10/20/50 upswings, goes in patterns (structure). it seems it's a bad period for small caps.
Also, rising $TNX. which is the case now .
x- stands for bullish weekly macds.
Trade ideas
VIX Bullish - What does this mean for our NQ (NAS100) Short?Elite Analysis
Chart Context: VIX 30m
Price just tapped into a 30-minute gap (FVG) and reacted cleanly.
That gap (marked in green) is acting as a demand zone for volatility.
Each time the VIX bounces from a demand/FVG zone like this → volatility increases → equities (SPX, NASDAQ, US30) tend to drop.
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Interpretation
VIX bouncing = Risk sentiment worsening.
This means fear/volatility is entering the market, often triggering sell-offs in indices.
Your NASDAQ short position aligns perfectly with this — the probability of a continuation down increases as the VIX reverses upward.
So, if VIX holds above 18.60 and expands toward 19.50–20.00, expect NASDAQ and S&P to drop into their next liquidity zones (25,300–25,000 area you mapped earlier).
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VIX has reached a 30m imbalance and is starting to rebound. Rising volatility usually means selling pressure on NASDAQ and SPX.
If the VIX continues above 18.60, it supports our short bias on NAS100 toward 25,300–25,000.
📊 Educational purpose — not financial advice.
Using HLOW/LHIGH (Dow) + LOGIC to pinpoint probabilities.DOW Theory is the king of the stock market (Higher Lows, Lower Highs, uptrending, etc.) and it's quite basic concept to apply with logic.
Sometimes you can time the market (based on 50dma/200dma crosses, price extensions) and LHIGH dynamics and logic -> to pinpoint probabilities. Like, look at VIX dynamics during 2023/2024.
in short: DOW + LOGIC = PROBABILITY.
$VIX: IT IS BASING While it's debatable if we can consider an IHS, it certainly appears to be consolidating for an upswing.
VIXSam Altman’s OpenAI strategy feels like “Trust me, bro” economics — promising to invest $1.4 trillion while making only $13 billion in revenue.
That’s not innovation — that’s speculation. When markets chase dreams instead of profits, they inflate bubbles. And every bubble bursts the same way: confidence collapses, liquidity dries up, and investors flee.
AI might be the next dot-com-style crash, where hype outpaces reality — until reality strikes back.
#stocks #ai #openai
VIX set to explode again!The last few days of selling in the markets have been intense (especially crypto), but I fear the intensity has only just begun!
If we look at the structure of VIX over the entire bull run that began in late 2022 with the mass release of generative AI, we see something peculiar with VIX RSI.
It is the only bull market in which the VIX readings kept getting higher and higher. If we look at the 8 day VIX structure, we see over the summer we had broke below channel support. We have recently broken back into it and it is ominous indeed. The only way left to go is much higher.
Even now VIX is at 19 but the stock market itself is barely budging. In the past 19 would have seen the market dropping pretty strongly. I think the market is gearing up for a big push down!
VIX breakout ? (aka SPY breakdown ?)Observations (not recommendations):
- Market looks toppish here
- everyone in "wait and see" mode, but wait what to the upside ?
- flip-side: any negative news could trigger next hiccup.
- VIX just touched support and bounced up.
Actions:
- Bought some VXX and TAIL on short leashes (tight stops). Any tweet or news could derail this!
VIX shortsVix shorts setting SPX and Nas for longs
It needs to close the Gap created
I want to see a correction
VIX is telling you.....It's sometimes really simple.
And simple is powerfull.
When the VIX. just like a stock,
creates higher lows after higher lows
for at certain amount of X time/months,
sooner or later we get the explosion of the VIX.
Looking at a currently very overpriced stockmarket
right now, you don't need to be an expert to see what coming.
I didn't say exactly WHEN, but you KNOW it's coming.
It's only a question of time.
And that some event will become the needle that pricks the bubble.
Don't say you didn't see this coming, after is has happened.
They said the same back in 2009.
#VIX
#bearmarket
Market is awfully bullishThe market in general is very bullish with many indices moving up higher and higher, but the price of gold has also been moving up higher which historically this doesn't end well. This could also mean that many allocation models have funds and liquidity being put into them. The bullish momentum can still continue but this is mainly year end flows following bullish sentiment into record highs along with the recent fed rate cut.
VIXTrading forex based on strong fundamentals is beneficial because it allows investors to make informed decisions grounded in real economic data rather than speculation. By analyzing key indicators like interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, employment, and geopolitical stability, a trader can anticipate currency movements driven by macroeconomic forces. This approach helps identify long-term trends and reduces emotional or impulsive trading, offering more consistent and sustainable profits. In essence, good fundamentals turn forex trading from a gamble into a strategic investment rooted in economic reality.
A scary fractal from 2020 Price is seeming to repeat what it did just before the covid crash. Seems like another massive VIX spike is coming soon.
VIX fib based time extension on past high vol patterns.This is a rough estimate, but it looks about the same as all of the previous times. The chart is public so feel free to copy and publish. You have my full permission. Here's a link - sharing is on, and most layers are hidden (and on BTCUSD since that's usually what I trade)
VIX will spike soon with Gold / Silver crashingThis am Gold and Silver have been coming down hard, and will likely keep tanking as supply cannot be met breaking trust in the supply chain. It's happened every other time.
Maybe nothing, but VIX is very nicely positioned now. May use UVIX as a proxy.
Best of luck!
the dead cat bounce in stocks?This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
VIX OCT 2025The VIX has rebounded sharply from the 18–20 support zone, showing clear institutional absorption. Price is now approaching a key weekly resistance at 30–35, which also aligns with a gap that could act as a short-term magnet.
If volatility expands further, the next upside targets are 35 (gap fill) and 50 (historical 2017 tariff zone).
If rejected at current resistance, downside support levels remain at 20 and 15–18.
#VIX #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
Fear is Rising in the MarketVIX (Volatility aka Fear Index) rose more than 25.5% since last week
However, S&P is just down around 2.0% from its all time high (6764.5)
Are markets preparing for a crash????
Unprecedented VOL suppression will lead to VIX October explosionAccording to my discussions with ChatGPT and analyzing various metrics we are currently in one of the longest periods, if not *the longest* period, of Vol suppression in the entire history of volatility.
Zooming out and looking at the current chart pattern VIX is very clearly in a falling wedge, which means its falling days are numbered.
Once you see a daily close breach of the upper boundary of the upper wedge channel, I would consider buying some VIX 30 calls for Oct 22 expiration.
Once VIX pierces 25, take profit and close the option.
Good luck and happy trading!
VIX The Calm Before the Next Wave of Volatility! Recession RisksAfter last week’s sharp selloff across equities and crypto, followed by a swift recovery on Monday, many traders are once again lulled into a sense of comfort. But beneath the surface, volatility is quietly building — and the VIX is starting to tell the story.
From Panic to Complacency — Too Fast
Friday’s market crash revealed how fragile sentiment still is. We saw broad-based liquidations, risk-off flows, and a short spike in volatility as traders scrambled for protection. Then, as if nothing happened, Monday brought a sharp rebound — driven by short-covering, dip-buying algos, and a belief that the correction was “overdone.”
Geopolitical Flashpoints: U.S.-China Tensions
The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and China over critical metals exports has intensified. China controls a large portion of rare earth metals, essential for electronics, batteries, and defense technology. Recent U.S. threats to impose sanctions or tariffs on key exports, coupled with potential Chinese retaliatory measures, have created uncertainty for supply chains.
Markets hate uncertainty. Every news cycle mentioning trade escalation acts like a volatility catalyst, as investors hedge against unexpected economic shocks. This alone can drive the VIX higher, even if the S&P 500 has short-term rallies.
Trump Tariff Threats and Market Psychology
Adding fuel to the fire, former President Trump has repeatedly hinted at renewed tariff measures. While the headlines may seem political theater, history shows that even the anticipation of tariffs can disrupt equities and spark short-term volatility spikes.
Friday’s selloff can be partially attributed to traders pricing in these geopolitical and policy risks, which are not reflected in earnings reports or fundamentals — making hedging through VIX-linked products increasingly attractive.
Earnings and Economic Signals
Beyond geopolitics, the earnings season will likely reveal weak spots across sectors. Companies exposed to global supply chains, tech hardware, and industrials may report margins under pressure. This combination — disappointing earnings and global trade uncertainty — often precedes volatility expansions.
Historical patterns show that VIX rises ahead of earnings dispersion and macro shocks, as investors scramble for protection against downside surprises.
Potential upside target: 25+ if earnings disappoint and SPX breaks below $6000
Calling Donald's bluff , hahahaIs it coincidence or a shrewd political strategy of Trump to repeat what he had previously used in April this year on the stock market ?
Back then, nobody knows what cards was on his sleeve and the Fear index shot up to a high of 60. The stock market had a mini crash on 4/4/25 and took a few days to recover, ie 9/4/25.
Much like the far away thundering claps that sends chills down one spine and look for shelter to hide, there was but little rain effect. This time, the game is similar and the big boys responded quickly, having studied his track records.
Too many retail investors were still mourning their losses or had already sold off, hopefully with profits or those who leveraged a lot and bought at high were the scapegoats!
Within a day, the stock market recovers! OMG , this is so incredible and how manipulative a market can be! And compare the 60 points VIX in April against the 20+ points this time, the fear was still there but probably not so great huh?
China, did they fall for his trick ? Obviously not ! They went ahead to impose export tariffs on some other sectors! And well, Trump did tweet that all is fine and he will be meeting President Xi soon! How fickle minded or shrewd he is , haha.
Three things I have learnt thus far :
1. IF you have itchy fingers and want to punt, please use a small % of your capital to bet on the stocks/ETF/crypto/currency you want. AND put a stop loss and profit target to it. Just treat it as lottery.
2. NEVER go on margin trading - never mind how lucky or good others show off their portfolio on social media winning 678 figures.
3. ALWAYS invest in fundamentally good companies and when Trump gives you a present like this - share prices drop 5-8%, it is a screaming buy/accumulation on those counters! This is far more important than item 1 (imagine you bet too much here and lost )as you need to stand by capital !
The bull market continues ............things are again back to normal ..........until............
