Get started
US Volatility IndexUS Volatility IndexUS Volatility Index

US Volatility Index

No trades
OverviewNewsIdeasMindsSeasonals

Trade ideas

VIX looking real sweet now (use UVIX as proxy)For those tracking macros and true diversification, this is a potential nice play with a massive upside. Look at last year around July 17th. We are nearing this. Historically, the VIX bottoms out around 17-18 and it's sitting at 15. It doesn't stay in this region for too long. Most macros are looking extremely brittle and cracks are forming everywhere. I'd argue that the macros look worse now than in early 20202. Track this, put alerts on, use whatever technical you prefer, but this will spike and it's a massive upside. Some use UVIX as the proxy for the VIX :) Best of luck and always take calculated risks. If not, just go to your trusty bank and get 0.02% return annually!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
$VIX.US tere might be something hiding in the water many missed We will focus on the candle formation for July 30th wednesday, July 31st Thursday, and July 32nd Friday. We will compare these dates to August 20th Wednesday, the 21st thursday and the 22nd Friday. I have been following it since I spotted it few days ago to see if it checks out, and sofar its been playing out candle for candle. If you go to the Daily and the 4h chart and focus on the July dates you might notice something very similar to what we had this Friday, a big drop. Now that is exactly what I was hoping for personally. It dropped bellow its previous low, and in theory should bounce off the bottom limit of the 5 wave megaphone which would signal a possible sharp rise in Vix and a sharp drop in SPY furthermore validating the pattern that im speculating is going to play out by October.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Crimson-777
10
Have we entered a brand new normal or is a crash coming?The market's bullish narrative rests first and foremost on the control of volatility. I won't go too much deeper into that right now, but I have been discussing with AI the current period of volatility expression and would like to highlight the following points about the current period: 4d VIX RSI has not had a 5 point increase since April 1 of this year. That's 129 days and counting. From Claude AI (Anthropic): The ongoing 4 day VIX RSI fall period (started April 1, 2025, now at 128+ days) is completely unprecedented since September 2003 (when VIX formula was modernized). That's already: More than double the longest ever previous period of in October 28, 2020 to Jan 27, 2021 (63 days) Nearly 10x longer than the average period (13.14 days) Over 12 standard deviations beyond the mean The only period ever to exceed 70 days since September 2003 Key Insight: Since September 2003, 67.3% of all fall periods recovered within 2 weeks, and 84.2% recovered within 3 weeks. The current 128+ day period represents an extreme statistical outlier in modern VIX behavior. Additionally, if we look at the S and P week chart, we see that the gap from May 9 to May 12 is the largest ever unfilled weekly gap in the entire history of the S and P. We are currently in a whole new normal of "bullishness", akin to the time period just before the great crash and great depression (which was the most bullish the stock market has ever been).
CBOE:VIXLong
by CryptoTaoist
11
Here is what I am seeing for VIX roughly by October Greetings my people. This is what I am seeing for VIX.US. 5 wave megaphone on the daily. Each vertical line corresponds to liquidity gaps that are still present. We had a very similar pattern on SPY.US I personally played, but I have not posted it on here. I'll start sharing my ideas more often as I get more used to using this. 😅 Perhaps it might look a bit exagerated however If you break down SPY.US in small sections on the 4h, its really just a few patterns that repeat in 3s for each circle. After each circle is complete it drops to a lower level from which it rebounds and begins a new circle of 3 reoccurring patterns. After the completion of each such cycles the pull back is bigger with the third one being the biggest like the one we had last April which was basically the end of the 3rd and final cycle. We have been in curently in cycle one of the new phase and curently working our way up and towards the completing of the 3rd reoccurring pattern in cycle one. I know it likely makes zero sense at the moment, if youre interested and I get enough requests ill take the time and make a post about it.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Crimson-777
12
VIX looking good....While some are celebrating small wins the bigger picture is that the economy is NOT doing well and there will likely be a liquidity crisis at some point. The smartest investors are pilling up cash while retailers are the exit liquidity. From a TA perspective, historically the VIX is below its mean average and we're seeing it crossing 50SMA then most likely 200SMA lines. The VIX ALWAYS spikes and it will cross 20 very soon! Just look at the last week that's 2-3 good years in the S&P in a few hours. DM me for details on how to use ETFs.
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
VIX: From “Calm Tension” to a ReboundWhy does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years? The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility. The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1. At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again. 🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked 📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline. 1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025 Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%). Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45). MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023. Key drivers: 🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut. 👷‍♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected). 🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns. 2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1) 🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9 🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division 👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down 📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway 💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal Conclusion: 2024 was a systemic shock. 2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management. 3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes. Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks. Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows. 4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next? 📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation 📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay. 📌 Final thoughts The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message. The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending. History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced. If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
TVC:VIX
by SHGTrading
I told you so....VIX is the golden goose! All this fake pump in the market was just not sustainable. It is very clear that there are holes and the money printing can't last forever. The S&P fake pumps, and artificial tariffs (which Americans pay 90%) are created out of thin air. The reality is that defaults are very high across the board for most debt classes, VIX is at a YEAR LOW (doesn't happen to often, signaling massive complacency), and now the song will end and all the retailers will be holding the bag! Learn how to trade the VIX! DM me for details. Always do your own due diligence, but historically this is a good time to get out :) You need to see and take action when you see red flags....
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
2
Weekly Volatility ReadGood Evening --🌗 🌕🌓 I hope everyone is having a relaxing weekend with friends and family alike because soon we will be in the thick of the price action again -- and it may get spicy! Let't us dive in as we review what happened last week and we look towards the next to trade range or observe. The CBOE:SPX opened the week fairly slow at $6,193.18 and increased throughout the week wicking up to a new ATH of $6,315.61 only to close the week off at $6,267.28 -- This leaves the IM on the week +$83.10. This closest respects the quarterly implied range that was a 'strength of IV' of 129.30%. Now looking towards this next week we have extremely low HV across the board in the broader markets. CBOE:SPX IV (13.14%) is trending 32% IV percentile on the year -- premium is seemingly cheap. HV10 (6.97%) is coiled within 97.67% of it's sliding yearly lows, showing a need for short-term volatility to consolidate. HV21 (7.78%) is even more coiled to it's yearly low at 98.76% respectively. Both are roughly mid 50% 'strength to IV' as IV predicts twice the potential move next week. Lastly, HV63 our quarterly trending values is showing a 'strength of IV' at only 108% but, could be supporting the thesis IV is projecting, as we do need a TVC:VIX pop OR time-wise consolidation. 📈📉 I hope everyone has a great week trading ranges and I will see you next weekend! Cheers! 🍻🍻🍻
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
VIX possible long?As equity markets continue to approach all-time highs and expectations of interest rate cuts increase, market sentiment remains highly optimistic. This environment of "good news" characterized by strong performance in equities and the anticipated easing of monetary policy is likely to suppress volatility in the short term, potentially pushing the VIX down into the 12–15 range. However, this period of euphoria may mask underlying risks. Stock valuations appear stretched, and the crypto market is exhibiting signs of overheating. If corporate earnings begin to miss expectations or if signs of economic slowdown emerge particularly if the economy shows signs of overheating before stabilizing market sentiment could shift rapidly. In such a scenario, volatility may spike again, with the VIX potentially rising back into the 20–25 range as uncertainty returns and risk appetite diminishes. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
TVC:VIXLong
by bossout10
3
Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Evening -- I hope everyone is having a restful weekend and enjoying your time away from markets. Always appreciate it while you can, and spend that precious time with loved ones. Now, let us review the price action last week as we look towards our expectations for the coming trading sessions. The CBOE:SPX opened the weekly candle at $6,126.15 and closed $6,252.50 -- this respectively puts the weekly move at +$126.35. This is slightly above what IV was stating entering the week. We are starting to see seasonality set in as the markets top and look for consolidation. The TVC:VIX dropped throughout the week putting a bottom in at $15.70 which shows volatility creeping to it's lowest point year-to-date. We should all expect a volatility bounce in the near future as the run the broader markets have made out of the steep correction needs to cool off before moving forward. Below is my volatility read for the S&P 500. You will see that HV10 (7.94%) is coiled within 3.30% of its sliding yearly lows. This tells me between the low sentiment in fear and the low volatility in short-term trends, we need to cool off a little. Now looking towards this week, I see the broader markets consolidating and even selling off in order to reset the overbought 'lagging' indicators and pop the VIX up a little bit. The administration has pushed the trade deal deadline off till AUG 1st providing some relief to the markets but, has also created more uncertainties with tariff letters that went out Friday. Look for a negative news cycle sparking up Sunday night into Monday, potentially creating momentum downwards. However, I believe we stay in range of what HV10 weighted to IV implies -- $6,207.72 - $6,311.78. This range holds a divergence from IV of 5.29% and and price gap difference of -$17.32. To me, this says that what is short-term trending is 'contractive' to what IV states. That's all for this week. Stay hedged against your bias always and remember to practice your ABCs -- If you like what you are reading and love volatility range analysis as much as i do -- feel free to drop me a comment and ill get back to you! Till next time, Cheers!
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Evening -- Happy July 4th to everyone Let us review last week as we look towards the next in anticipation of the trade deal deadline that looms. I had a target on the SP:SPX of $6,253.59 and the weekly high was $6,284.65. The candle on the short week opened at its low of $6,019.21 and closed $6,233.08 making the weekly range +$213.87. This represents closest to HV63 over IV which stated +/-$253.26 and a 'strength of IV' that was 295% . Again the weekly high is above our range target, but my volatility will always be measured close-to-close. Now as we look towards this week -- IV (13.85%) has shifted upwards slightly with HV10 (7.36%) hinged down and still lowering. In fact, I have bi-weekly volatility as 97.28% 'coiled' to it's sliding yearly low of 4.64% -- HV21 (9.92%) is closer to what IV states with it being 'coiled' 96.61% to it's respective sliding yearly lows. In my opinion, volatility still has room to consolidate slightly as markets rotate higher. I think we can see upwards $6,327.73, but slowly over the course of the week with the last tariff uncertainty getting out of the way. From there, going into mid July we may need to see a volatility spike. The HV10 range I am watching holds a 'strength of IV' entering this week of only 53% -- this shows the price per move is expensive by almost twice as much. Till next time, know your ABCs, have a great long weekend, and stay hedge! CHEERS
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
How I Manage Risk (When Buying Options) If you’ve read my previous post — “How Much Risk Are You Really Taking?” — you already know my view on risk: Treat every trade like watching your cash burn in front of you. Ask yourself: 💭 “Would I be OK watching this much money disappear right now?” If your answer is yes, take the trade and move on. If it’s no, don’t do it — resize it. 🚫 What Not to Do: Many traders fall into the trap of: “I’ll think about it later” “I’ll set a mental stop and cut if it hits my level…” That approach has two fatal flaws: #### ❗ 1. Execution failure You might not react fast enough when the market hits your level — or worse, you’ll forget to act at all. #### ❗ 2. Emotional resistance Even if your stop level is hit, will you actually cut? Probably not. Human nature avoids pain and chases pleasure. Cutting a loss — even a planned one — is painful. That’s why mental stops often fail. Mental stops: Add more burden to monitor Add more emotion to your decision-making That’s why I keep it simple. --- ✅ My Risk Rule for Buying Options: Every dollar of premium I spend is 100% acceptable to lose. This way: I don’t need a mental stop. I don’t need to watch it every second. I sleep well, regardless of outcome. --- 📊 How Much Do I Risk? It depends on account size and account type: #### 📌 Main Account: Risk 1–2% per trade Never more than 5% on a single trade Rarely hold more than 3 trades at once Targeting 6–10% total exposure, only if trades are uncorrelated ⚠️ SPY & QQQ are NOT uncorrelated — don’t fool yourself. #### 📌 Small Account: Can risk 5–10% per trade, but only on A+ setups(See: “What’s Your Catalyst?” for what qualifies as A+ in my book) The goal of a small account is different: it’s about growth — but still must be strategic. --- 💰 “But How Can I Make Big Money Risking So Little?” This is the common pushback I get: “Shouldn’t we take big risks to get big rewards?” Sure — high risk = high reward. But high risk also = high chance of blowing up. Even if you hit a few big winners, you’ve compromised your long-term survival. That’s not trading. That’s gambling. --- 🧠 What I Actually Look For: Low Risk / High Reward. Yes, they’re rare. Yes, they’re like lotto tickets. But you don’t need to win often if you only risk a little and win big when it counts. What’s not rare is: Traders risking big on uncertain setups Going all in on gut feelings Wiping out in one or two bad trades That’s not strategy — that’s self-destruction. --- 🧾 The 2 Core Rules of Risk: Protect capital at all costs Only take trades where potential reward outsizes the risk Don’t flip the logic. Too many traders hear “high risk = high reward” and assume high risk is required. It’s not. That mindset is built for Vegas, not for Wall Street. --- 🧠 If You Want to Be a Trader — Not a Gambler: You must believe in: Small risk, big reward Patience Discipline Letting time and luck compound your edge No other way. 🎯 If you truly get this… congrats. You’ve crossed the line from gambling to trading.
TVC:VIXEducation
by quantsignals