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VIX trade ideas

VIX spiking....PEEKA BOOTVC:VIX (proxy CBOE:UVIX ) is crossing up key technicals and looks like there is a nice upside. Much of the news hasn't reported that the rate cuts have "already" been priced-in, which is a nice recipe for volatility to spike as people make big moves (mostly sell). Again, 99% of sell orders from insiders are SELL, and congress members are putting PUT options orders too. It also doesn't help that China is not buying NVDIA, which was a big reason for the upside and that has completely faded out. Where do you go when the MARKET has reached the ceiling? Best of luck and always hedge your positions! VIX / UVIX now has an awesome beta and upside.
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
7
What will happen to VIX after another crappy jobs report today?While there is no crystal ball, the jobs market is beyond horrible and many precursors to a massive pullback on coming together; credit defaults, unemployment (after several revisions, each one worse than the last one), China pulling back on US based AI tech (what AI bubble?), and valuations that peak dot.com bubble. The VIX has been unnaturally low, hedge funds are shorting it!, and let's not forget volmaggedon! Could spike any second and it likely will before people get too complacent. This is a recipe for v-maggedon 2.0. Bullish on the economy, but not blind to facts and historical standards when things look very wonky. Best of luck out there! Everyone is a genius when the market is up :)
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....must watch!I have been saying this for months! Keep an eye on the VIX, always! Yes, it's been down for 5-6 months in a very unnatural way, but things are about to take a turn and potentially in a big way. Ultra-high valuations, crap unemployment, defaults through the roof, PE/CAPE ratios at historic levels, and highest concentration / weight in the stock market. 10 tech companies buying from each other like very good friends with 100% capex that hasn't been spent = 40% of S&P, seriously, WTF! In any case, it's not rosy, and we are overdue a massive spike in the VIX. Use the proxy ETF CBOE:UVIX and add alerts. Best of luck!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
$VIX We only just started! Volmageddon 2.0Zoom out on the VIX and you'll find that there is A LOT more runway. Study the VIX for the last 30 years and you'll find that it bottoms out and explodes. We are not at a turning point in the markets with ultra high "hot air balloons" that will come down with a correction that is long overdue. The VIX hasn't been this low in a very long time, so you want to keep the proxy CBOE:UVIX in your radar. Happy trading! Always look to make lemonade out of lemons :)
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
Bears Trapped at Resistance - Volatility Squeeze Imminent📊 To see my confluences and/or linework, step 1: grab chart, step 2: unhide Group 1 in object tree, step 3: hide and unhide specific confluences. 😊 🎯 VIX: Bears Trapped at Resistance - Volatility Squeeze Imminent The Market Participant Battle: The volatility bears who successfully crushed VIX from point 2 (19+) down to point 3 (17-) have now been confirmed as the dominant force. With VIX returning to their established resistance zone at point 4 (18.73), these sellers are coiling for another aggressive push lower. The setup shows institutional volatility sellers systematically beating retail fear buyers, with price expected to collapse back toward the 15-16 range as complacency returns to the market. Confluences: Confluence 1: Price Pattern Confirmation (Points 1→4) The numbered sequence reveals a textbook seller confirmation pattern. When point 3 closed below point 1, it validated point 2 as a confirmed resistance zone where volatility sellers defeated buyers. Point 4's return to this zone represents the second test of proven sellers - a high-probability reversal setup. The pattern suggests VIX should fail here and return toward recent lows. Confluence 2: Major Pitchfork Resistance The primary pitchfork structure confirms point 4 as a critical turning point. Price is respecting the upper parallel line perfectly, suggesting strong dynamic resistance. This technical structure has contained VIX rallies throughout the recent range-bound period, reinforcing the bear case. Confluence 3: Volume Profile Gap Above The fixed range volume profile shows a significant gap above point 4, indicating lack of trading interest or support at higher levels. This vacuum above current prices suggests any attempted breakout would face immediate selling pressure due to lack of structural support. Confluence 4: Anchored VWAP Rejection The anchored VWAP from point 1 shows point 4 pulling above then failing under the first standard deviation. This classic "deviation trap" pattern often precedes sharp reversals as institutions enter shorts above key deviations while retail traders chase breakouts. Confluence 5: Momentum Divergences Both RSI and MFI show overbought conditions with clear second-degree bearish divergence. The OBV is hitting resistance at its descending trendline, confirming distribution rather than accumulation at these levels. These triple divergences strongly suggest exhaustion of the current rally. Confluence 6: Fibonacci Resistance Zone The 0→3.1 Fibonacci retracement shows point 4 falling precisely into the 0.62-0.79 "reversal zone" - a high-probability area for trend continuation after retracements. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: VIX below 20 indicates market stability , currently at 18.73 resistance - Recent News/Earnings: Fed cut rates by 0.25% to 4.00%-4.25% range on September 17 - Analyst Sentiment: October VIX futures trade at significant premium to September, suggesting post-Fed turbulence ahead - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: Next FOMC meeting scheduled for October with markets pricing additional cuts - Interest Rate Impact: Fed indicated two more cuts in 2025, taking funds rate to around 3% Layman's Summary: The Fed just cut rates and markets initially calmed down, pushing VIX lower. However, traders are betting on increased volatility in October (after the next Fed meeting). Right now, VIX is testing a proven resistance level where sellers have won before. With the market showing complacency and technical indicators screaming "overbought," this looks like a perfect spot for volatility to get crushed again before any October drama unfolds. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: 4-hour VIX showing numbered pattern with clear resistance at 18.73 - Significance: Confirms seller dominance pattern - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: 4-hour with support/resistance bands showing 18.73 as key level - Significance: Multiple touches confirm resistance strength - AGREES ✔ - Image 3: 4-hour with volume profile showing gap above current levels - Significance: Lack of support for breakout attempts - AGREES ✔ - Image 4: Pitchfork analysis showing upper parallel resistance - Significance: Dynamic resistance confluence - AGREES ✔ - Image 5: Fibonacci and momentum indicators showing overbought divergences - Significance: Multiple reversal signals aligning - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: All five chart images confirm the same story: VIX is hitting major resistance at 18.73 with multiple technical rejections signals firing simultaneously. The volume structure shows no support above, momentum is exhausted with divergences, and the pitchfork/Fibonacci levels all converge at this exact zone. This is a textbook short setup with exceptional confluence. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: High This VIX short setup offers exceptional risk/reward with a stop just above 20 (psychological resistance) targeting 15-16 initially and potentially 13 on extended weakness. The combination of confirmed seller dominance, technical resistance confluence, and exhausted momentum creates a compelling short opportunity. With October volatility concerns still weeks away, there's ample time for complacency to return and crush VIX back to recent lows.
CAPITALCOM:VIXLong
by jacesabr_real
VIX looking real sweet now before tomorrow's Job numbersIf you're looking for a nice upside before things get wonky, then look at the $VIX! It's starting to tick-up from all the complacency - folks buying at all time high with insane valuations just not supported historically. The jobs numbers is expected to look pretty grim tomorrow, and with that the market can correct itself. The proxy for TVC:VIX is $UVIX. If you need help, just check the ultrabuy / short signals and you should be fine! Best of luck and stay active in the market otherwise you could be a bag holder for a while, and that's not fun!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
5
Anticyclical VIX Futures Trade – Calendar SpreadVIX has drifted into complacency territory with stretched short positioning, steep front-end contango, and seasonal factors lining up. Instead of outright longs, a VX1–VX2 Calendar Spread offers cleaner exposure to rising volatility and curve normalization. Setup • VIX near equilibrium range (12–15%), entering complacency. • Futures curve in steep contango → negative carry on outright longs. • Short positioning at multi-year highs, vulnerable to squeeze. • Seasonality favors higher VIX. • Index volatility suppressed, single stocks trading erratically. Trade Idea • Long VX1 / Short VX2 (multiplier = 100). • Benefits from both rising volatility and front-end curve flattening. • VX1 outperforms VX2 in a spike; VX2 cushions VX1 in grind-lower scenarios. Entry Triggers • VIX9D > VIX. • VIX crossing EMA20/EMA50. • RSI(14) on VIX > 50. • SPX daily short setup. Target • Target zone to be reached before VX1 expiration. • Target zone 1: VIX in range 20 - 22, target zone 2: VIX in range 28 – 30 Exit • On VX1 expiry: VX1 converges to the VIX. VX2 becomes front month. If the position is left open, it effectively becomes a short front-month future and must be re-evaluated. • Alternatively, close at VIX Index in specified target zone or discretionary, depending on SPX price action (i.e. SPX bouncing back after a dip). Risk • Do not over-leverage.
CBOE:VIX
by parsifaltrading
VIX looking real sweet now (use UVIX as proxy)For those tracking macros and true diversification, this is a potential nice play with a massive upside. Look at last year around July 17th. We are nearing this. Historically, the VIX bottoms out around 17-18 and it's sitting at 15. It doesn't stay in this region for too long. Most macros are looking extremely brittle and cracks are forming everywhere. I'd argue that the macros look worse now than in early 20202. Track this, put alerts on, use whatever technical you prefer, but this will spike and it's a massive upside. Some use UVIX as the proxy for the VIX :) Best of luck and always take calculated risks. If not, just go to your trusty bank and get 0.02% return annually!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
$VIX.US tere might be something hiding in the water many missed We will focus on the candle formation for July 30th wednesday, July 31st Thursday, and July 32nd Friday. We will compare these dates to August 20th Wednesday, the 21st thursday and the 22nd Friday. I have been following it since I spotted it few days ago to see if it checks out, and sofar its been playing out candle for candle. If you go to the Daily and the 4h chart and focus on the July dates you might notice something very similar to what we had this Friday, a big drop. Now that is exactly what I was hoping for personally. It dropped bellow its previous low, and in theory should bounce off the bottom limit of the 5 wave megaphone which would signal a possible sharp rise in Vix and a sharp drop in SPY furthermore validating the pattern that im speculating is going to play out by October.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Crimson-777
10
Have we entered a brand new normal or is a crash coming?The market's bullish narrative rests first and foremost on the control of volatility. I won't go too much deeper into that right now, but I have been discussing with AI the current period of volatility expression and would like to highlight the following points about the current period: 4d VIX RSI has not had a 5 point increase since April 1 of this year. That's 129 days and counting. From Claude AI (Anthropic): The ongoing 4 day VIX RSI fall period (started April 1, 2025, now at 128+ days) is completely unprecedented since September 2003 (when VIX formula was modernized). That's already: More than double the longest ever previous period of in October 28, 2020 to Jan 27, 2021 (63 days) Nearly 10x longer than the average period (13.14 days) Over 12 standard deviations beyond the mean The only period ever to exceed 70 days since September 2003 Key Insight: Since September 2003, 67.3% of all fall periods recovered within 2 weeks, and 84.2% recovered within 3 weeks. The current 128+ day period represents an extreme statistical outlier in modern VIX behavior. Additionally, if we look at the S and P week chart, we see that the gap from May 9 to May 12 is the largest ever unfilled weekly gap in the entire history of the S and P. We are currently in a whole new normal of "bullishness", akin to the time period just before the great crash and great depression (which was the most bullish the stock market has ever been).
CBOE:VIXLong
by CryptoTaoist
10
Unprecedented VOL suppression will lead to VIX October explosionAccording to my discussions with ChatGPT and analyzing various metrics we are currently in one of the longest periods, if not *the longest* period, of Vol suppression in the entire history of volatility. Zooming out and looking at the current chart pattern VIX is very clearly in a falling wedge, which means its falling days are numbered. Once you see a daily close breach of the upper boundary of the upper wedge channel, I would consider buying some VIX 30 calls for Oct 22 expiration. Once VIX pierces 25, take profit and close the option. Good luck and happy trading!
CBOE:VIXLong
by CryptoTaoist
5
Here is what I am seeing for VIX roughly by October Greetings my people. This is what I am seeing for VIX.US. 5 wave megaphone on the daily. Each vertical line corresponds to liquidity gaps that are still present. We had a very similar pattern on SPY.US I personally played, but I have not posted it on here. I'll start sharing my ideas more often as I get more used to using this. 😅 Perhaps it might look a bit exagerated however If you break down SPY.US in small sections on the 4h, its really just a few patterns that repeat in 3s for each circle. After each circle is complete it drops to a lower level from which it rebounds and begins a new circle of 3 reoccurring patterns. After the completion of each such cycles the pull back is bigger with the third one being the biggest like the one we had last April which was basically the end of the 3rd and final cycle. We have been in curently in cycle one of the new phase and curently working our way up and towards the completing of the 3rd reoccurring pattern in cycle one. I know it likely makes zero sense at the moment, if youre interested and I get enough requests ill take the time and make a post about it.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Crimson-777
12