Rune Thor Chain Saatnya DCAI used the latest market data and key events: a price of around $1.18–$1.27 and a circulating supply of ~351.3 million RUNE. THORChain is also dealing with a debt issue of ~$200 million (planned conversion to equity tokens/restructuring) that impacts risk and liquidity.
Basic assumptions (used in calculations):
Circulating supply (≈) = 351,300,000 RUNE.
The current benchmark price is estimated at $1.27 (an example for calculating the current market cap).
There are solvency/restructuring issues (≈ $200 million in debt) that increase short-term uncertainty.
Conversion example — current market cap (illustration):
351,300,000 × $1.27 = 351,300,000 + (351,300,000 × 0.27)
351,300,000 × 0.27 = 94,851,000
⇒ market cap ≈ $446,151,000. (Check price and supply sources for rounding).
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Price projection (3 scenarios)
> Note: I also include an implied market cap for each target = target price × 351,300,000.
1) Optimistic Scenario (adoption + reputation recovery)
Trigger assumptions: successful debt conversion without harming RUNE holders, increased integrations and swap volume, restored trust, surge in TVL and LP.
Price Target (12–36 months): $8 – $20
Implied market cap $8 → 351,300,000 × 8 = $2,810,400,000.
Implied market cap $20 → 351,300,000 × 20 = $7,026,000,000.
Probability (subjective): ~15–25% (needs many positive things to happen).
Short Rationale: RUNE could be valued as critical cross-chain infrastructure if swap volume and TVL grow rapidly.
2) Moderate Scenario (slow recovery/stability)
Assumptions: restructuring is underway, services are gradually restored, volumes are slowly increasing, but regulation and competition remain pressing.
Price Target (12–36 months): $2 – $6
Implied market cap $2 → $702,600,000.
Implied market cap $6 → $2,107,800,000.
Probability: ~45–60%.
Rationale: Consumers and LPs gradually returning; the token is still far from its ATH, with room for upside if solvency issues don't destroy trust.
3) Pessimistic Scenario (loss of trust/regulation/liquidity)
Assumptions: The restructuring fails or is highly detrimental to token holders, strict regulation, or a security incident/large LP withdrawal.
Price target (6–24 months): $0.30 – $1.00 (or lower)
Implied market cap $0.30 → 351,300,000 × 0.30 = $105,390,000.
Implied market cap $1.00 → $351,300,000.
Probability: ~20–35%.
Rationale: Solvency and reputation issues could drive liquidity outflows.
(Market data sources and restructuring/delay events: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Cointelegraph, Messari — see news summary on servicing whales and $200M debt conversion plan).
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Practical recommendations/risk management rules
1. Position sizing (conservative advice): No more than 1–3% of total investment portfolio for speculative allocations like RUNE; If aggressive, limit to a maximum of 5%.
2. Logical entry points (based on a moderate scenario): buy incrementally in the $0.8–$1.8 range (dollar-cost averaging).
3. Stop-loss & take-profit: Conservative example — initial stop-loss 30–50% of entry price (depending on tolerance), gradual take-profit targets depending on the scenario (e.g., sell partially at $2–$6, then sell again at $8+).
4. Checkpoints (should be monitored weekly/monthly):
Updates on $200M debt conversion & governance decisions.
Total swap volume & 24-hour spot volume (rising indicates adoption).
Total RUNE pooled / TVL & number of active validator nodes (determines security & liquidity).
Legal/regulatory news and security audits.
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What can I build next (immediately)
Pick one and I'll work on it now:
1. Create a numerical projection model (simple Monte-Carlo or deterministic scenario) that generates a probability curve and estimated date (I'm assuming supply and volume).
2. A concise dashboard (table) showing target price → implied market cap → % increase from current price.
3. A news and metrics notification checklist (a checklist format that you can monitor weekly).
